Ky Derby Stats

[WaHoo]

Interesting Stats about Kentucky Derby by Longshot

http://www.bm-dist.com/

then click on Longshots Derby Stats, this is the Early Edition

[Run Nicholas Run]

thanks for the link.
As a stats oriented player I like looking
into the numbers.

[Bruddah]

The gentleman that puts this information together is a very knowledgable and dedicated handicapper. I have been privileged to receive his sheet every year since he started making them. I just want to publicly thank Keith for his generosity and friendship over the years. :ThmbUp:

[Bettowin]

The gentleman that puts this information together is a very knowledgable and dedicated handicapper. I have been privileged to receive his sheet every year since he started making them. I just want to publicly thank Keith for his generosity and friendship over the years. :ThmbUp:


I also like the numbers and the way they are set up but is there something that defines the columns? I can figure out most but some columns I am not real sure about.

[Bettowin]

I also like the numbers and the way they are set up but is there something that defines the columns? I can figure out most but some columns I am not real sure about.

I figured them out. No problem:)

[WaHoo]

Stats has been update

[judd]

how do you figure out?

[Bruddah]

how do you figure out?

Click on the url provided by Buffalo above. Scroll down to Longshot's Derby Picks. Click on the info buttons. He explains it all. Just use your mouse and read. :ThmbUp:

[LemonSoupKid]

is that these figures and his explanations are going to dramatically change this year. Perhaps not for the winner, but definitely the top 3 WILL NOT fit his "criteria" over the last 16-18 years ... I think this game is changing too greatly for us to fit models outside of pace.

The other thing I've noticed is that (and this isn't bad) this year and last year are heavily biased to dirt running, and the landscape this year is SO different, I think the above paragraph will be true (Smooth Air and Gayego were 2nd and 3rd choices, with HUGE numbers).

[OFFandRUNNING10]

Going by that just seems to easy... though looking at this years chart compared to last years, the candidates behind the winner seems alot harder to seperate. interesting chart though...

[46zilzal]

The MEAN % median for this years race is at the lowest level in the past ten running's.

Until things have changed, I will continue to back colts in the range that has won over the last ten years 67.2 67.9. only compensating when one or another overwhelms that late balance with higher total energy. (Sartin style sustained/pressers have been the winner almost every year)

The ONLY ones to hit the board with deep closing stats were in the past two years: Street Sense, Afleet Alex and the ill fated Eight Belles. None of the other late closers got up, not a one.

There is not too much pace up front and with so many closing late, TRAFFIC will be a major problem

[JPinMaryland]

The MEAN % median for this years race is at the lowest level in the past ten running's.

Wouldnt this be a function of more races being run on poly turf? I forget exactly how % median is calculated but wouldnt races that are run on poly as well as turf tend to come out lower than dirt?