Handicapping Trainers Instead of the Horses

[Easy Goer]

I was talking to a handicapping buddy about the upcoming Ky-Derby & I mentioned the horse Musket Man & he immediately said the horse is a toss-out because his Trainer has never Won a race like the Ky-Derby before.

My immediate reply was, Well Neither has several other trainers who are in the race like Bill Mott, Todd Pletcher, James Jerkens, & several others. So does that mean they are toss-outs too?

My question is How many players actually handicap the Trainer for Big-Wins before considering his horse for the Win Slot in the Ky-Derby?

For Me, It Doesnt Matter at All, The only thing thats Important is the Horse & if he is seemingly suited for the race. I say Musket Man is a Top Contender despite his Trainer past record.

[fmolf]

I was talking to a handicapping buddy about the upcoming Ky-Derby & I mentioned the horse Musket Man & he immediately said the horse is a toss-out because his Trainer has never Won a race like the Ky-Derby before.

My immediate reply was, Well Neither has several other trainers who are in the race like Bill Mott, Todd Pletcher, James Jerkens, & several others. So does that mean they are toss-outs too?

My question is How many players actually handicap the Trainer for Big-Wins before considering his horse for the Win Slot in the Ky-Derby?

For Me, It Doesnt Matter at All, The only thing thats Important is the Horse & if he is seemingly suited for the race. I say Musket Man is a Top Contender despite his Trainer past record.
if his theory is true how did any of these great super trainers ever get their first kentucky derby win?....you do not have to go back too far to find a trainer who just scored his first kentucky derby winner...rick dutrow comes to mind...michael matz comes to mind(barbaro)....so throw out pletchers horses..throw out asmussen runners and do not even look at suroors entry...i think their is a good chance the winner may come fom one of those trainers myself...good luck stick to horses they run the race!....old saying in the sport i play of hockey......"players play and coaches coach"

[Mineshaft]

if his theory is true how did any of these great super trainers ever get their first kentucky derby win?....you do not have to go back too far to find a trainer who just scored his first kentucky derby winner...rick dutrow comes to mind...michael matz comes to mind(barbaro)....so throw out pletchers horses..throw out asmussen runners and do not even look at suroors entry...i think their is a good chance the winner may come fom one of those trainers myself...good luck stick to horses they run the race!....old saying in the sport i play of hockey......"players play and coaches coach"






I do not handicap the Trainers for Big Win Theory. I think its a stupid angle if you ask me. Musket man i like because he has the right style for the Derby. if he can work out a trip i think he can crash the exotics. I dont think he can win but your a fool to leave him out the exotics.

[turfbar]

Let me ask, did you really think that Larry Jones and or Jason Servis were going to walk into "THE BIG APPLE" and take home the Triple Crown?


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[Sabong]

While some trainers may well be known for getting a horse to peak at the right time. I really think you can throw out just playing the trainer in the Derby as there is way too much of a trip & racing luck involved. I think by far the best two horses in the race are trained by first time but very high % trainers in Jimmy Jerkens & Jeff Mullins. I really think Quality Road will win the Derby. If you must handicap a trainer forget Baffert & look at Larry Jones who has ran second the last two years & has a very legit horse this year. I dont think Musket Man can win the Debry but I would not be shocked to see him run in the tri or super but I would not be shocked if he ran 15th either. I really think both the Dubai horses will be prime horses to include in the exoctics this year.

[silverbull271]

Let me ask, did you really think that Larry Jones and or Jason Servis were going to walk into "THE BIG APPLE" and take home the Triple Crown?


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Coudnt have said it any better.....

Horse racing isnt what it used to be, and NEVER will be. We will most likely NOT see another TRI crown winner.....

We came close....last GREAT 3yo was REAL QUIET (shame how he lost)

I remember standing at the finish line when the greatest horse of all time won the triple crown.....SEATTLE SLEW

Any of you on here old enough to remember the 78 Marlb Cup?

2 Tri Crown winners

These kids today, dont realize how good racing used to be

[laff]

Your public profile says you were born in 1980. From what vantage point were you watching the race?

[WinterTriangle]

Well, the KY DERBY is an unsual race, but for every day practices, my ROI is best when I play my stable notifications based on TRAINERS. Hit a lot of longshots today and yesterday doing this, for instance.

For the Derby, IMHO, a classic distance, huge field, traffic problems, and crowds in the triple digit numbers are all factors that need to be "trained" for. If you don't have experience training for a race like this, your "great horse" could be disadvantaged.

Just too many things that can happen, and trainers who have postiive numbers for stakes races, when deciding between horses, I'm gonna take the horse who has the trainer advantage.

I also don't see Quality Road as the lock for the win, at least not today. I have him further down. :eek:

[turfbar]

I actually was wrong in my Jason Servis (Afleet Alex) comment but you get my point.:blush:


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[Run Nicholas Run]

I actually was wrong in my Jason Servis (Afleet Alex) comment but you get my point.:blush:


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Tim Ritchey trained AFLEET ALEX
JOHN Servis trained Smarty Jones
Jason Servis trains claimers at monmouth

[ryesteve]

I actually was wrong in my Jason Servis (Afleet Alex) comment but you get my point.:blush:
What exactly was that point? That a trainer who's just won the Derby and the Preakness still lacks the qualifications to win the Belmont??

[turfbar]

:blush: :blush: :blush: My facts were totally wrong--- forgive me
but my point is as good as those trainers may be
the NY trainers are waiting in the weeds on Belmont day


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[BELMONT 6-6-09]

In my opinion it is the horse first...I will give extra attention to certain trainers who have a history of performing well on big race days but ultimately it is the horse that is paramount for selection in these difficult handicapping events (difficult for me in these events) LOL

[BIG49010]

Throw out stats, when you are dealing with the "Best Horse in the Barn", I have used this for years. It not only applies to Stakes horses, but it can also apply to a nice allowance horse, that a trainer that a bumb might have in his barn.

[cmoore]

The horse runs the race..not the trainer..