One of the hardest things for a Horseplayer to do is...........

[andymays]

One of the hardest things for a Horseplayer to do is to take the same stand on a longshot (say 25-1) as you would on a short price (say 7-2)!

I guess it's human nature to let the odds influence your bet but if your max bet to win is $200 would you also bet $200 to win on a 25-1 shot?

Do you ever single a 25-1 shot in your pick 3's, 4's, or 6's?

Truth be told we all talk about betting "value" in theory, but in practice do we bet the "value" the same as we bet the "logical" horse?

You can never make a serious score unless you take a stand on a longshot!

Opinions Please!

[toussaud]

you could not be more correct. it's human nature and one of the hardest things to grasp. think about it.... you know that to make money, you have to have a longshot or have a horse that has higher odds, but the human part of you wants to go with the pack and doesn't want to be wrong.

I find it helpful that when I see a horse I like at say, 25 to 1 that I like, if I can ackolwedge WHY the public thinks he's 25 to 1 and if I am okay with that or not. Let's face it, a horse is not 25 to 1 becuase he has won 5 times in a row and is dropping in class. he has an issue. Say he's raising in class 2 levels and he's 25 to 1. Am I oaky with that? well I liked the way he did it even though the number was not that great he couldnt' have done it any easier if you ask me, i'm fine with 25 to 1.

[rwwupl]

Interesting question. I think everything said so far is true about taking a stand on a price.

I have found many things fit into the catagory "Hardest things for a horseplayer to do...."

I have also found after a big win day, putting another win day back to back is most difficult for me. I know it has something to do with me and my daily betting plan,but I have found "repeats' are most difficult despite all reasonable adjustments.

Anyone else have this problem?

[andymays]

Interesting question. I think everything said so far is true about taking a stand on a price.

I have found many things fit into the catagory "Hardest things for a horseplayer to do...."

I have also found after a big win day, putting another win day back to back is most difficult for me. I know it has something to do with me and my daily betting plan,but I have found "repeats' are most difficult despite all reasonable adjustments.

Anyone else have this problem?


Let's face it, beating the races is tough because of so many variables and so many random events that can happen during the race itself. Thats why it's important to play the "value"!

I too find it hard to have two consecutive big winning days but until the last couple of years it was because I was usually out celebrating and killing brain cells till the early morning!

[toussaud]

i have found that if I cannot have the exact same routine when I pick my horses or come upw ith my bets, I wpnt even bother betting that day. I can't rush my handicapping or try to watch the football game while I'm making my picks, etc.

[andymays]

i have found that if I cannot have the exact same routine when I pick my horses or come upw ith my bets, I wpnt even bother betting that day. I can't rush my handicapping or try to watch the football game while I'm making my picks, etc.


You're right, if you rush the process you miss things that cost you a lot of money. It usually takes me anywhere from 4 to 8 hours to handicap any given card!

[Mineshaft]

One of the hardest things for a Horseplayer to do is to take the same stand on a longshot (say 25-1) as you would on a short price (say 7-2)!

I guess it's human nature to let the odds influence your bet but if your max bet to win is $200 would you also bet $200 to win on a 25-1 shot?

Do you ever single a 25-1 shot in your pick 3's, 4's, or 6's?

Truth be told we all talk about betting "value" in theory, but in practice do we bet the "value" the same as we bet the "logical" horse?

You can never make a serious score unless you take a stand on a longshot!

Opinions Please!







You bring up some good points. I for one can never single a 25/1 shot. I include them in my Pick 4's but as far as singling them i couldnt do it.

[keilan]

One of the hardest things for a Horseplayer to do is to take the same stand on a longshot (say 25-1) as you would on a short price (say 7-2)!

I guess it's human nature to let the odds influence your bet but if your max bet to win is $200 would you also bet $200 to win on a 25-1 shot?

Do you ever single a 25-1 shot in your pick 3's, 4's, or 6's?

Truth be told we all talk about betting "value" in theory, but in practice do we bet the "value" the same as we bet the "logical" horse?

You can never make a serious score unless you take a stand on a longshot!

Opinions Please!

It's all about confidence --I've wagered much more than 2 bills on a 25-1 shot. I wanna get paid when I'm right so I'll have large DD and x's as well.

[Bubba X]

One of the hardest things for a Horseplayer to do is to take the same stand on a longshot (say 25-1) as you would on a short price (say 7-2)!

I guess it's human nature to let the odds influence your bet but if your max bet to win is $200 would you also bet $200 to win on a 25-1 shot?

Do you ever single a 25-1 shot in your pick 3's, 4's, or 6's?

Truth be told we all talk about betting "value" in theory, but in practice do we bet the "value" the same as we bet the "logical" horse?

You can never make a serious score unless you take a stand on a longshot!

Opinions Please!
I don't play horizontals, so opinion on singling there. The races I play are only those with a favorite I am looking to bet against at what I consider an underlaid price that also include another horse I am looking to bet at an overlaid price. When those two criteria happen in a race, I bet.

I do not land on a lot of 25-1's but I can say that if I think fair odds on my horse are 3-1, I will bet more on that horse at 6-1 than I will bet at 4-1.

So, yes, I agree that when you have a perceived advantage, you must bet more when that advantage widens.

[andymays]

You bring up some good points. I for one can never single a 25/1 shot. I include them in my Pick 4's but as far as singling them i couldnt do it.


You ought to try it on one ticket that you play. Just make sure that you spread a little on the "hit leg". Nothing more frustrating than having a 25-1 single and missing on the "hit leg"!

[CBedo]

There are two reasons for me why I might not bet the same amount on a longshot as on a short priced horse. Neither have to do with emotions. Both have to do with value.

1) Pool impact. At some of the smaller tracks, even a small bettor like me can affect the odds of a long odds horse.

2) Bankroll safety. If I think I have a 100% edge on a 25/1 shot, and I think I have 100% edge on a 2/1 shot, which do you think you would bet more on? This is a kelly criterion type argument. From another perspective, if I give two horses both a20% chance (4/1), one is 6/1 and one is 25/1, from an edge to odds ratio, you would think you could bet more on the 25/1, but I think most of us, if we look at our records will find that the 6/1 will win more than the 25/1 even though we thought both had a 20% chance (kind of a Bayesian inference application). So in reality, an adjustment needs to be made, which usually means reducing the amount bet on the longer priced horse.

[toussaud]

the biggest scores of my life and when I do best is when I bet more in relation to how strongly I feel about a chance. I remember the pacific classic 2 years ago I couldn't sleep waiting for student council to get in the starting gate. His ML was 8 to 1 and went of at 23 to 1. I unloaded on him. I was so sure of myself I instead of second guessing myself I was thinking to myself "damn these people are idiots". I was throrughly convinced he had the best form going into the race, I could care lss if he was 233 to 1.

Then you have some instances say... like the Kentucky derby last year. I had taleofakeati at 18 to 1, and even though i bet on him, I thought big brown was the best horse, but I thought 18 to 1 was too high for the wood memorial winner. In that instance, I dont' consider it to be the same type of bet

[andymays]

Just one longshot angle that I'm sure some of you know but if you don't start paying attention to this.

Gelded, good works since, competent Trainer, up in class, 10-1 or more,vulnerable race favorite!

This is something you should consider as a single in p3's,4's,and 6's!

[Greyfox]

Do you ever single a 25-1 shot in your pick 3's, 4's, or 6's?

!

Absolutely yes!
If ahead of the card I've worked out that a long shot can fire today, I will use it in flat bets, daily doubles and Pick 3's as a single. It's a great way to fly.
I seldom do Pick 4's and Pick 6's.

[misscashalot]

One of the hardest things for a Horseplayer to do is to take the same stand on a longshot (say 25-1) as you would on a short price (say 7-2)! ...Opinions Please!



In a sampling of 45000 races
7/2 or less win .555 of the time

25/1 or more win .022 which doesn't build much confidence.

if you're banking on making a profit by singling a 25-1 horse and don't have "inside info",
you'd better be looking elsewhere to spend your hard earned dough...unless you're Bill Gates.

[andymays]

In a sampling of 45000 races
7/2 or less win .555 of the time

25/1 or more win .022 which doesn't build much confidence.

if you're banking on making a profit by singling a 25-1 horse and don't have "inside info",
you'd better be looking elsewhere to spend your hard earned dough...unless you're Bill Gates.


You're forgetting the "skill" part of handicapping! See my post above about one angle for playing a longshot!

[toussaud]

In a sampling of 45000 races
7/2 or less win .555 of the time

25/1 or more win .022 which doesn't build much confidence.

if you're banking on making a profit by singling a 25-1 horse and don't have "inside info",
you'd better be looking elsewhere to spend your hard earned dough...unless you're Bill Gates.


the betting public is right about 2/3rds of the time with the top 2 selections. but I'm trying to beat the public not be a part of the public.

and most longshots are longshots for a resaon.. they have a very long shot of winning. But there are some that slip threw the cracks for whatever the reason may be.

[CBedo]

In a sampling of 45000 races
7/2 or less win .555 of the time

25/1 or more win .022 which doesn't build much confidence.
That's pretty obvious. The question is what's the win percentage of a horse you give a 20% chance to win (for example) when his odds on the board are 7/2? What if they are 25/1?

[Imriledup]

I don't have a problem making a huge play on a desperate longshot. I've put tons of money on 30-1 shots before and i'll do it again with absolutely no hesitation.


I feel the toughest thing as a horseplayer is knowing which races to pass that you still feel you have some kind of edge. I feel i have some kind of edge in almost every race i handicap, but knowing when the edge is too small is really hard. An edge seems like an edge and its really hard to skip a race when you have something that you feel pretty sure is going to happen.

One of my biggest problems is hating a favorite and knowing the favorite is overbet, yet not liking anyone else really. What do you do? If there's a horse who's even money and you know he's not that good yet at the same time have no clue about the rest of the runners, is that enough of an edge to 'force' a wager?

It comes down to being TOO good of a handicapper and feeling that you want to take advantage of your knowledge in every single race. We all know that its virtually impossble to win in the long run unless you skip quite a few races, but which races to skip is really the dilemma....especially when you feel you have some kind of handle on the race in question.

[Canadian]

I kind of agree with the original post. There have been many of times I just wouldn't bet on a horse because the odds were to high.

I find the best value I ever get is when I like, say a 6-1 horse alot. There is another horse that is 3 or 4-1 that should be 2-1. The public corrects the odds, the 3 or 4-1 becomes 1-1 and my 6-1 is up over 8-1. I've had that happen more then once and can predict it often as well.

[toussaud]

I don't have a problem making a huge play on a desperate longshot. I've put tons of money on 30-1 shots before and i'll do it again with absolutely no hesitation.


I feel the toughest thing as a horseplayer is knowing which races to pass that you still feel you have some kind of edge. I feel i have some kind of edge in almost every race i handicap, but knowing when the edge is too small is really hard. An edge seems like an edge and its really hard to skip a race when you have something that you feel pretty sure is going to happen.

One of my biggest problems is hating a favorite and knowing the favorite is overbet, yet not liking anyone else really. What do you do? If there's a horse who's even money and you know he's not that good yet at the same time have no clue about the rest of the runners, is that enough of an edge to 'force' a wager?

It comes down to being TOO good of a handicapper and feeling that you want to take advantage of your knowledge in every single race. We all know that its virtually impossble to win in the long run unless you skip quite a few races, but which races to skip is really the dilemma....especially when you feel you have some kind of handle on the race in question.


the most effective tool I ever learned was how to not bet a race. There will be other opprotunities.

[Imriledup]

the most effective tool I ever learned was how to not bet a race. There will be other opportunities.

Totally agree with you. The ability to skip races is what seperates people who can win in the long run from those who cannot.

[JustRalph]

You're right, if you rush the process you miss things that cost you a lot of money. It usually takes me anywhere from 4 to 8 hours to handicap any given card!

you have got to be kidding? 4-8 hours?

[andymays]

you have got to be kidding? 4-8 hours?


Not kidding. How long does it take you?

[Imriledup]

you have got to be kidding? 4-8 hours?

How long does it take you?

If you want to really handicap a race correctly, you have to spend at least an hour on one race imo.

[Overlay]

Two primary considerations help me "stay the course" on longshots:

1) consistency and confidence in odds-assignment based on the use of quantitative data rather than subjective judgment or opinion;

2) past success in backing horses that were misjudged and sent off at long odds, either because the public didn't give enough weight to positive factors in the longshots' records; or because the public gave too much weight to factors (even if they were legitimate positive indicators) possessed by other horses, and as a result drove their odds down below fair value, while raising the odds on other contending horses that had legitimate chances to win.

[buzzy]

when i first started out i was intimidaded by the big odds.. if my line had the horse at 4 or 5 to 1 and it was going off at 20-1 or more i would pass. did i know more than the crowd? i don't think so! but once i gained confidence and watched a couple of them come in without a dime on them, i don't hestitate anymore. i am a pick 3 and double player, i will single the 25-1, but i will play a backup ticket as insurance

[ManeMediaMogul]

In theory...

If you think the 7-2 shot's probibility of winning is the same as the 25-1 shot, you should be betting piles of money on the 25-1 shot.

I once read an article about a guy who bet the horse's odds to win. In other words, $4 on a 4-1 shot, $10 on a 10-1 shot, $25 on a 25-1 shot and so on.

His theory was if you use the same methods to derive your selections the best way to take advantage of the overlays was to bet more when the payoff was going to be more.

Contrarian thinking for sure...but makes a lot of sense.

The best bets in racing are those when you know something that others don't. Since we are betting against the crowd, we should embrace high odds and never fear them.

"Be bold and mighty forces will come to your aid."
Sir Anthony Hopkins

[andymays]

What about the guy who puts say $5000 to win on a 10-1 shot offshore. At many Tracks this kind of bet would cut the odds in almost half during the week. It doesn't go into the pools so is he getting extra value?

[onefast99]

In theory...

If you think the 7-2 shot's probibility of winning is the same as the 25-1 shot, you should be betting piles of money on the 25-1 shot.

I once read an article about a guy who bet the horse's odds to win. In other words, $4 on a 4-1 shot, $10 on a 10-1 shot, $25 on a 25-1 shot and so on.

His theory was if you use the same methods to derive your selections the best way to take advantage of the overlays was to bet more when the payoff was going to be more.

Contrarian thinking for sure...but makes a lot of sense.

The best bets in racing are those when you know something that others don't. Since we are betting against the crowd, we should embrace high odds and never fear them.

"Be bold and mighty forces will come to your aid."
Sir Anthony Hopkins

On February 5th 2005 I bet $100 to win $200 to place and $300 to show on one of my horses going off at 89-1 at Aqueduct, heading for the stretch run she was 2nd and took over the lead only to be passed late in the stretch by a 22-1 shot and a 9-1 shot finished 3rd. She paid 63.50 to place and 27.00 to show, that was a nice day at the window!

[andymays]

On February 5th 2005 I bet $100 to win $200 to place and $300 to show on one of my horses going off at 89-1 at Aqueduct, heading for the stretch run she was 2nd and took over the lead only to be passed late in the stretch by a 22-1 shot and a 9-1 shot finished 3rd. She paid 63.50 to place and 27.00 to show, that was a nice day at the window!


Fast, I love to see stuff like that. You can't hit a home run with a bunt!

Good Job!

[startngate]

I bet based on what I believe the odds should be, as opposed to what they actually are. If I think a horse's odds should be 2-1, I'll bet it like a 2-1 shot whether the odds are 2-1 or 25-1. If I think the horse should be 25-1 to win the race, I pass.

Two of the biggest scores of my life came on horses that ended up being huge odds when I strongly felt they could not finish worse than second. I had Royal Heroine in the '84 Arlington Million, and Qualify in the '86 BC Juvenile. Qualify was around 8-1 on track, but went of at 60-1 at the seperate pool simulcast facility I was at because the favorite was way overbet there.

I'm not a huge bettor, but I made my standard 'big bet' ($50WPS; $20 2-horse EX Box) on each of them with the only horses I thought could beat them (John Henry and Capote). Even though both ended up second, I cashed some huge tickets.

Every time I question myself by looking at the toteboard, I just remember these two scores ... :)

[fmolf]

we all as long time players have had our share of longshot winners and nice scores or we would not be playing. i personally like to single odds on favorites in one leg of p3's an 4's and include the live longshot in the spread leg....it has been my experience that most 25/1 shots are underlays an should be higher .. my best scores have come from horses in the 4/1 to 15/1 range... the higher the odds on a horse the harder it is to quantify what you should make them in your odds line...my favorite singles are horses that are not the favorite for some reason but i believe they should be...these horses usually 2 or 3/1 and i have them as 7/5 or 8/5 couple a horse like this with a 5/1 on both of the next two legs and you usually get a good payout in the p3