just my opinion

[lamboguy]

i have been watching alot of horses coming off the synthetic surfaces this year from turfway or the california tracks. i can tell you they are all improving once they get on regular dirt. i saw a horse win in philly park that came out of a maiden $8k tag in golden gate, and blow a decent maiden 15 field in philly park to smitherines. i saw a pathetic looking maiden $7500 horse coming out of the worst turfway park race demolish a bulah msw field. maybe that one not saying to much. on sunday's last race at keeneland a horse that came out of a mediocre southern california msw event had a bad trip and just got aced for the win.

what i am trying to say is that we all think that the west coast horses are inferior to horses running in kentucky or the east coast, but they have been beating the so-called better horses.

this meet that is about over in gulfstream produced more canadian winners than i have ever seen. they also won at fair grounds and santa anita. i guess what i am trying to say is that the horses leaving synthetic surface and go on to the dirt seem to be running alot better.

for anyone betting the super bowl of horse race betting, the kentucky derby, i urge you to take that into account while you handicap the race.

[Bettowin]

i have been watching alot of horses coming off the synthetic surfaces this year from turfway or the california tracks. i can tell you they are all improving once they get on regular dirt. i saw a horse win in philly park that came out of a maiden $8k tag in golden gate, and blow a decent maiden 15 field in philly park to smitherines. i saw a pathetic looking maiden $7500 horse coming out of the worst turfway park race demolish a bulah msw field. maybe that one not saying to much. on sunday's last race at keeneland a horse that came out of a mediocre southern california msw event had a bad trip and just got aced for the win.

what i am trying to say is that we all think that the west coast horses are inferior to horses running in kentucky or the east coast, but they have been beating the so-called better horses.

this meet that is about over in gulfstream produced more canadian winners than i have ever seen. they also won at fair grounds and santa anita. i guess what i am trying to say is that the horses leaving synthetic surface and go on to the dirt seem to be running alot better.

for anyone betting the super bowl of horse race betting, the kentucky derby, i urge you to take that into account while you handicap the race.

Colonel John was my horse last year and that resulted in a bunch of torn up tickets:) I don't think coming off the synthetics hurt him as much as the trip he got but none of the top 4 last year ever ran on a synthetic track. Don't know if it was just coincedence or not.

[Market Mover]

Colonel John made a bold run on the turn, but he must have hurt himself in the process as that unusual deviation in path showed...something tells me if you had CJ last year, you might as well get on the MHS bandwagon this year as well (at double or triple the price!)....

[Bettowin]

Colonel John made a bold run on the turn, but he must have hurt himself in the process as that unusual deviation in path showed...something tells me if you had CJ last year, you might as well get on the MHS bandwagon this year as well (at double or triple the price!)....

Haven't really looked at MHS yet but I like his breeding. Just can't get too excited that POTN and CCandy both beat him last out. The thing that got me on Colonel John last year was not only his record but the fact that he took to the CD track and physically looked better than most in the field. Probably better than 18 horses in the field that week:)

[lamboguy]

i will tell you until i get blue in the face that TWO STEP SALSA was probably the best 3 yo in the country for 2008. he came back run the best out of any 3 yo in the breeders cup, and won 2 stake races in dubai on regular dirt. if they keep him in training next year he has a big shot at beating anything for the classic in dubai, maybe even the breeders cup classic.

[DrugS]

i will tell you until i get blue in the face that TWO STEP SALSA was probably the best 3 yo in the country for 2008.

The same Two Step Salsa that was 6th in the Pennsylvania Derby in his only American start on dirt? Behind the mighty Anak Nakel no less.

As for his two stakes win in Dubai ... one came against a moderate field of sprinters and in the other he was aided by a powerful inside-speed biased track (that carried Well Armed and Regal Ransom along) and Gayego was probably best in defeat.

[Bruddah]

Drugs your opinion makes good sense to me. I especially like your insight on the Dubai track and the two entrants from there this year. Any further information or insight would be appreciated.

Thanks Bruddah :ThmbUp:

[Pell Mell]

I have noticed the GG horses doing well in several places. My opinion is that the cheaper races at GG are dominated by horses from SO.CA taking huge drops in class. An 8 grand mdn race may have several horses coming from 20-40-grand mdns at SA. So the bottom line is that the class level at GG is actually much higher than say, PP.

Just my opinion.

[SMOO]

for anyone betting the super bowl of horse race betting, the kentucky derby, i urge you to take that into account while you handicap the race.

I agree.



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[rrbauer]

I was at Keeneland last week. The subject of SoCal horses transferring their form to Keeneland's poly was a handicapping issue on Friday.

EARSTOYOU a FTS that had trained up to her maiden (twice actually as they had her ready to run at Oak Tree last fall and backed off) at SA and HOL. My workout figs had her winning if she ran to her works. Unfortunately a lights-out gate work at Keeneland spilled the beans. She won for fun and paid $6.60.

DREAM OF KAYLEE looked like the horse to beat in the 6th if he ran back to his SoCal form. He did. And he won.

LIMESTONE EDGE was coming off a poor race in SoCal but previous races there had been competitive. He had worked well since arriving at Keeneland (he also had won his first-level allowance condition at Keeneland last year) and just missed running down the wire-to-wire winner on a day that highly favored speed.

KEEP THINKING a 3YO maiden had been running so-so races in SoCal and he ran a so-so race to finish mid-pack in the 10th.

The only other track that I've been playing is Tampa. I can only recall horses from PID (synthetic) coming in there and they didn't seem to duplicate their good PID form on Tampa's surface. But, I haven't followed it for every starter.

Good thread.

[onefast99]

I saw the PP race there was also a 6 year old nw2l that tracked my horse last week at PP we held on for a head win, that was some move in the stretch by that horse.

[Norm]

It seems to depend on the horses running style. Front runners that tire on poly tend to do better on dirt especially on early-speed dirt tracks. Successful stalkers on poly do well on slow, deep dirt tracks. Poly closers usually get creamed on any kind of dirt because the forward running horses don't get tired enough. These are just some generalities I've been observing but, I believe the "horses for courses" rule still applies. You will never know if a good poly horse can switch to dirt 'til he actually does it, it's not predictable, you have to see at least one race on the new surface..