Rabbits

[Bruddah]

I would like as many responses as possible. 1) With Regal Ransom the "seemingly" (only?) front running pace for the Ky Derby, do you think he is being intentionally used by the Sheikh as a rabbit for Desert Party? 2) Do you think Regal Ransom can steal the front end and win?

Some very smart horse people and handicappers on this board. I respect your opinions. As for me, I tend to think, Regal Ransom was allowed to win his last race over his stablemate Desert Party. Thus giving him enough graded stakes money to run in the Derby. If you look at their previous races, Desert Party handled Regal Ransom Handily. I suppose, I am always looking for a set up in these races and want other opinions. :bang:

[toussaud]

regal ransom is better than dester party iMHO. I think he has a bette chance of winning than desert party.

I thnk Franki got a little overconfident in his mount in dubai and basically unerestimated regal ransom. I think could be one of the reasons he wasn't asked to follow Desert party to kentucky either.

[Run Nicholas Run]

Alan Garcia on the lead with Regal Ransom :ThmbUp:

[fmolf]

i posted yesterday i think my belief that regal ransom if he ran would be a legit contender ...if noone goes with him he could steal the race

[kenwoodallpromos]

Check to see if others need a rabbit as well!

[Bruddah]

Check to see if others need a rabbit as well!

Obviously, the deep closers in the race are not hurt by a rabbit. However, Regal Ransom is not a blistering speed rabbit, which would help deep closers even more. I see his speed as more moderate, which would aid mid pack stalkers, and Heaven help, there a big group of those.

Just trying to get a line on the race shape, any of your ideas would be appreciated. :ThmbUp:

[Bruddah]

I just read this excerpt from Steve Haskins Derby trail. It's plain to see why he gets paid for writing down his thoughts and I don't. This pretty much sums up my questions and thoughts.

If Regal Ransom and Join in the Dance both run there should be an honest pace. If the fractions are testing or start to pick up noticeably after five-eighths of a mile, remember that I Want Revenge, Quality Road, Friesan Fire, General Quarters, Musket Man, and Desert Party (although he could take farther back) all should be fairly close together and will be making their moves at around the same time. Most of those horses have registered triple-digit Beyers, including highs of 113 by I Want Revenge and Quality Road.



But, keep in mind the 2005 Derby, when the slower horses were supposedly no match for Wood Memorial winner Bellamy Road (120 Beyer), Arkansas Derby winner Afleet Alex (108 Beyer), Blue Grass winner Bandini (103 Beyer), Louisiana Derby winner High Limit (105 Beyer), Illinois Derby winner Greeley's Galaxy (106 Beyer), and Florida Derby winner High Fly (102 Beyer). All, with the exception of Afleet Alex, had similar running styles to the 2009 horses mentioned above. They all made their moves at the same time after a wicked pace and all were cooked by the three-sixteenths pole, setting it up one of the so-called slow closers, Giacomo , at 50-1. No one knows what kind of pace we’ll have this year. It likely will not be as fast as in 2005, but you can be sure all those aforementioned horses will be moving together, making for a contentious cavalry charge approaching the quarter pole.



On the move behind them should be Pioneerof the Nile, Dunkirk, Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy, Win Willy, Mr. Hot Stuff, Summer Bird, and West Side Bernie. That’s a lot of classy, well-bred closers to contend with in the stretch.

[toussaud]

i'm going to have to strongly disagree with haskin on this one.

bellamry road was a textbook dye in the wool front runner. the same can be said about high limit and high fly.

There is not one stone cold front runner in this group. Quality road COUlD take the lead or he could just as easily sit off the pace. He just has a lot of natural speed and where his natural s peed leads him is where he will be. I want revenge and potn are both pretty versitle and can be palced where the jockies see fit.

desert party, musket man and general quarters like to sit a little father back than Fresien Fire, I want revenge and Quality Road. They are more like Curlin's as far as how they run moreso than say a fresien fire.

this is the way I think it will shake out

Front runners

Regal Ransom
Join in the dance
Quality Road


2-5 lengths off the leader

I want revenge
\Papa Clem
Frisein Fire

7- 11 lengths back of the leader


pioneer of the nile
Desert Party
General Quarters
Musket Man
.Flying Private


In the back playing monopoly


Hold me back
Choclate Candy
Win Willy
Advice
Dunkirk
Mr. Hot Stuff
Summer Bird


Now here is the kicker. none of the front runners are speed merchants. I would think you would see 23 ish 47 ish splits, nothing crazy. If this is the case, you can look for POTN to pull the jockey up and be somewhere in that 2nd group instead of the third group. also, if these fractions hold correct, i have a hard time believing that anyone in the final group can win.

I think the derby winner is going to come from one of the first 2 groups. It's in everyone's best interest regal ransom is in the derby and join in the dance as well. if one of or both of them scratched, I don't see how quality road oculd lose.

[Bruddah]

Good analysis. I am going to do more split times research on every entry. I have a spread sheet analysis form, I devised a few years back. It has been fairly accurate in lining them up. I do think you and Haskins have it about right. :ThmbUp: Thanks

[Will Power]

Here is some interesting (to me) data. In last 5 Derby's there have been a total of 16 "E" horses. Only 1 of those (Hard Spun) has hit the Trifecta, 4 (total) have hit the Super and 5 total have hit the high 5.

On the other hand there have been only 7 horses in the last five derby's that have had 0 speed points. 2 of these have been in the tri, 4 in the super and 5 in the high 5.

I will probably stay away from the E's, i.e. Regal Ransom.

[fmolf]

Here is some interesting (to me) data. In last 5 Derby's there have been a total of 16 "E" horses. Only 1 of those (Hard Spun) has hit the Trifecta, 4 (total) have hit the Super and 5 total have hit the high 5.

On the other hand there have been only 7 horses in the last five derby's that have had 0 speed points. 2 of these have been in the tri, 4 in the super and 5 in the high 5.

I will probably stay away from the E's, i.e. Regal Ransom.
are you saying maybe we should be looking at the pressers ...or e/p's

[toussaud]

most early front running types aren't bred to go 10 furlongs.

I would not be so quick to disregard regal ransom. if left alone he could wire the field.

[W2G]

1) With Regal Ransom the "seemingly" (only?) front running pace for the Ky Derby, do you think he is being intentionally used by the Sheikh as a rabbit for Desert Party?

I don't think so, but his role could turn out rabbit-like anyway. I think Godolphin sees RR as a rapidly improving sort and their "other" TC candidate. It's looking more and more likely they'll send them both in the Derby.

2) Do you think Regal Ransom can steal the front end and win?

He could be a tough customer. Looks like the type that does his best running on the lead and being asked to rate thwarts his ability. And he's no Casey's on Call -- if QR stalks leisurely, RR could be gone. RR will make QR uncomfortable at the very least. Some sheets players are becoming enamored with his pattern. I have some doubts about 10f and his pedigree though.

I tend to think, Regal Ransom was allowed to win his last race over his stablemate Desert Party. Thus giving him enough graded stakes money to run in the Derby.

Well, it's safe to say that the few people who know definitively whether this assumption is true or not do not post on this forum. I'm not certain, but second-money in this rich race was probably a ticket-puncher too. In any case, Godolphin was most pleased with the UAE Derby result. Many seem to feel that DP was not at his best that day, and that Detorri's ride was "overconfident". Still, he just about ran down RR and received a superb conditioning in the process. Detorri did appear to be unusually reserved at the top of the stretch when urgency was otherwise expected. Also, I wouldn't read too much into Godolphin passing on Detorri's services in favor of U.S.-based jockeys. I think that is by design.

[OTM Al]

With only a couple front runners at most, the situation really favors the front runners and those sitting just off them. If only Regal Ransom or even both he and Join in the Dance go out on the lead and can manage moderate fractions, this may turn into a merry-go-round. The speed duels of past derbys (and most any other races for that matter) blow up due to 3 or more horses battling. Less than that, one of the front runners has a very good chance of going on.

This puts Quality Road in an interesting spot. If more than one horse is already out on the lead, it might not be good for him to go after them as he will get involved in a multi horse duel. However if he hangs back, he may not catch up. Therefore, this race shape as it looks now looks to be very dangerous for him.

Convesely I think this shape plays right into the hands (hooves?) of IWR and PotN (if he appears that he will be ok on dirt) and Fresian Fire to a lesser extent. These horses should get first jump and the should be good enough closing from short range if QR goes early to match the frontrunners. If he does not, then add him to that group trying to change places on the merry go round. Then it all comes down to if the front runners have enough stamina to hold on.

I think unless you have a couple horses go completely rank, which is possible given the noise and crowd, the deep closers aren't going to get there this year, as is true most every year, as it is doubtful there will be a complete meltdown by the front half of the field. Use for 3rd and 4th on your tickets only.

So it looks to me the top positions should come from those that can establish themselves on or near the lead. Therefore, post positions are going to play a very big role this year with so many competative horses.

[toussaud]

With only a couple front runners at most, the situation really favors the front runners and those sitting just off them. If only Regal Ransom or even both he and Join in the Dance go out on the lead and can manage moderate fractions, this may turn into a merry-go-round. The speed duels of past derbys (and most any other races for that matter) blow up due to 3 or more horses battling. Less than that, one of the front runners has a very good chance of going on.

This puts Quality Road in an interesting spot. If more than one horse is already out on the lead, it might not be good for him to go after them as he will get involved in a multi horse duel. However if he hangs back, he may not catch up. Therefore, this race shape as it looks now looks to be very dangerous for him.

Convesely I think this shape plays right into the hands (hooves?) of IWR and PotN (if he appears that he will be ok on dirt) and Fresian Fire to a lesser extent. These horses should get first jump and the should be good enough closing from short range if QR goes early to match the frontrunners. If he does not, then add him to that group trying to change places on the merry go round. Then it all comes down to if the front runners have enough stamina to hold on.

I think unless you have a couple horses go completely rank, which is possible given the noise and crowd, the deep closers aren't going to get there this year, as is true most every year, as it is doubtful there will be a complete meltdown by the front half of the field. Use for 3rd and 4th on your tickets only.

So it looks to me the top positions should come from those that can establish themselves on or near the lead. Therefore, post positions are going to play a very big role this year with so many competative horses.


the thing about quality road is he doesn't have to "go after" anyone. he has more natural speed than anyone in the race. if he is sitting 3-4 back of regal ransom it's beucase the jockey has a strangle hold on him.

If horses want to gun out to the front I dont' think it will effect him one bit. I don't think he has a problem rating, I just don't think he has to, he has an extremely high crusing speed and happens to be on or right off the lead all the time

[toussaud]

also the switch from alan garcie to John V on Quality road is the difference in a nice three year old and the making of a superstar. John V somehow got him to relax and in his last 2 starts, both with him on board, he has sat, quite nicely 2-3 off the pace and pounced on the leader in the stretch whereas, and espically so in his allowence race the first time he faced theregoesjojo, alan garcia made him go to the lead.

[toussaud]

looking at I want revenges races, he's actually a pretty uniqiue horse. His wood performance doesn't suprise me bercuase he never really has cared where he was placed, he seems to care more about how fast he is running than where he is spotted. if his pace puts him on the lead so be it. If it puts him 10 back, so be it.
Looking at hiw belevery Lewis, I don't think it was the cushion track as much as it was th compitition and also so much as Joe had him closer to the lead than he should have been on a somewhat hotter pace. He can produce somewhat of a late kick if he is not used early, but can't produce that same kick if put on the lead or close to it if not used.


As far as his position in the race, I would actually after watching his races expect him to be a little father back than I originally expected. He and POTN are actually clones of each other racing style but POTN has more kick. In the cash call mile he sat about 7 or 8 off the lead and made a late move, which I think is what they are both the most comfortable doing.

[Bruddah]

On the Graded Earnings list, Todd Pletcher has:

#15 Advice...206k...connections unsure if he goes in Derby...Beyer 94
#16 Dunkirk...150k... Definitely going...Beyer 108
#21 Join in the Dance...Is in if Advice does not go. Another Speed rabbit
I need help on PP's and Beyer on this one.
#22 Take the Points... Neeed help on PP's and Beyer

Pletcher can control the speed of the front runners if he does not go with Advice and allows Join in the Dance, to join the Dance in Louisville.

Question: does Pletcher and Dunkirk want another Rabbit in the race? Or, does he keep Advice in the race?

[fmolf]

On the Graded Earnings list, Todd Pletcher has:

#15 Advice...206k...connections unsure if he goes in Derby...Beyer 94
#16 Dunkirk...150k... Definitely going...Beyer 108
#21 Join in the Dance...Is in if Advice does not go. Another Speed rabbit
I need help on PP's and Beyer on this one.
#22 Take the Points... Neeed help on PP's and Beyer

Pletcher can control the speed of the front runners if he does not go with Advice and allows Join in the Dance, to join the Dance in Louisville.

Question: does Pletcher and Dunkirk want another Rabbit in the race? Or, does he keep Advice in the race?

do not be surprised if pletcher does this and regal ransom outruns them ..and carries his speed to the wire...if odds are juicy enough i may make him one of my plays!...and key him in a few exactas.......along with a solid closer and or pressers or a nice fat juicy combo of the two