why do people play pick sixes!

[fmolf]

i as a very serious handicapper would like to know every ones opinion as to why people play such an expensive and unhittable wager....i think if every one kept detailed records they would see their bottom line is bertter playing p 3's and 4's.... am i alone on this... i am trying to understand but it really seems more like a lottery than a horse racing wager!
If you take the payout and the odds of hitting i think it is usually an underlay as far as payouts go except maybe carryover days at the southern cal. tracks... or double carryovers at new york tracks!... in yesterdays sequence at aqueduct their was a 39 dollar horse an a 29 dollar horse...who can spread enough to cover these horses that do not fit and just jump up and win?

[toussaud]

i am not a professional pick 6 wager. I only play a pick 6 when I have very strong convictions on at least 3 of the races. I dont' go into any card thinking I'm going to play th pick 6.. but if i'm at say, santa anita and I really like one in the the 5th, one in the 7th and one in the 8th..w ell hell I have 3 singles there. at that point, I thnk there is some value. not just blindly playing the pick 6 to be playing it

[rrpic6]

My Pick 6 attempts have become almost nil since the arrival of the various Poly-surfaces. What once was quite lucrative to my bankroll, now I mostly am a casual passerby. I think the Pick 6 pools in California have also dwindled in the past few years. The recession is a big reason, but also I have the feeling many handicappers are finding out that Poly-wagering is really tough. My overall ROI on Pick 6 wagers is still in the black. I might take a stab when the carryovers get tempting or a card on a real dirt track looks hittable.

RR

[cmoore]

If I were to play it on a regular basis..I would use 3 singles. One of those singles has to be a mid to long shot play..One really needs a separate bankroll
that they use to attack the pick 6..Whether it be a few thousand to start or much more.

[fmolf]

i believe pick fours and pick threes offer more value...favorite play of mine is odss on fav in one leg followed by a mid to long priced horse i feel confident about and then spread trying to catch a longshot in the other leg or the other two legs if betting into a pick four... please everyone post your pick three and pick four strategies... love to hear them

[point given]

i believe pick fours and pick threes offer more value...favorite play of mine is odss on fav in one leg followed by a mid to long priced horse i feel confident about and then spread trying to catch a longshot in the other leg or the other two legs if betting into a pick four... please everyone post your pick three and pick four strategies... love to hear them

try to beat the faves in the 1st leg of p3 as it pays much better. a buddy uses the 1 x 3 x 3 that is 7 p3s on a 9 race card 9x7 = 63 for the day.

another is the ABC method . instead of 3x3x3 you bet a, abc, abc , abc, a, abc then abc abc, a. so if 3 a's come in you have it for 3 units, 2 a's 2 and 1-1 and it costs the same as the caveman abc x 3 way. of 27.

[Saratoga_Mike]

i as a very serious handicapper would like to know every ones opinion as to why people play such an expensive and unhittable wager....i think if every one kept detailed records they would see their bottom line is bertter playing p 3's and 4's.... am i alone on this... i am trying to understand but it really seems more like a lottery than a horse racing wager!
If you take the payout and the odds of hitting i think it is usually an underlay as far as payouts go except maybe carryover days at the southern cal. tracks... or double carryovers at new york tracks!... in yesterdays sequence at aqueduct their was a 39 dollar horse an a 29 dollar horse...who can spread enough to cover these horses that do not fit and just jump up and win?

To play the Pick 6, I think you should either be ready to invest $2 or $500+, not anywhere in between. If you're playing it regularly for $50 to $100, I think you're throwing your money away. The Pick 6 is the one bet where someone with deeper pockets has a decided advantage over others with more limited resources. I started playing the Pick Six a little less than a yr ago after reading Steve Crist's book "Betting Exotics." It isn't a handicapping book. Instead, it's a book about how Steve, one of the most successful Pick Six players in the country, plays various exotic bets, from Pick 3s and 4s to the Pick 6. Prior to reading the book, I played the Pick Six probably eight to ten times with no success, using what Steve would term a "caveman" ticket (i.e., basically one ticket with equally weighting to each selection). I now use Steve's A/B/C method, which can also be applied to Pick 3s and 4s. As a result, I've hit one Pick 6 for $11k and had a number of other close calls where I ended up with five out of six. I typically only play when there's a carryover, and I usually bet $500 to $1500 into it. Overall, I'm probably about breakeven since I started playing it - nothing to brag about, but probably better than most who incorrectly play the Pick Six with caveman tickets. If you want to play the Pick 6 and you want to be successful, get Crist's book - it's worth every penny. I'd also recommend it for Pick 3 and 4 palyers. Again, it is NOT a handicapping book. It's about the math of exotic wagering. As with all of Crist's work, it's very well written and interesting.

[fmolf]

point.... isn't he then locked in if he is trying to get a single like that in every pick three.....why play so many pick threes if you do not have a solid opinion....in response to saratoga i read the book and understand it and all the different methods he advocates.... but i'll bet if you did some calculations regarding the pick six i think you would see that it is usually underlayed for the odds of hitting it..... when i want a fun bet that might hit for a big score i will play a supper for a dollar 1958...or the year that my kids were born or the address where i grew up...etc..etc...

[toussaud]

point.... isn't he then locked in if he is trying to get a single like that in every pick three.....why play so many pick threes if you do not have a solid opinion....in response to saratoga i read the book and understand it and all the different methods he advocates.... but i'll bet if you did some calculations regarding the pick six i think you would see that it is usually underlayed for the odds of hitting it..... when i want a fun bet that might hit for a big score i will play a supper for a dollar 1958...or the year that my kids were born or the address where i grew up...etc..etc...


I've hit 2 pick 6's in my 5 years of seriously playing the horses. one for 900 bucks and another for 5400 dollars, both were on tickets less than 20 bucks and I might play a pick 6 1 time a month if that. a couple of 5 out of 6's (one actually a couple of months ago). like you said, i will only play if I have a solid opinion. in the one I hit at ellis park I had a solid opinion about a very long shot like 15 to 1 and he came in and won.
IMHO you are throwing away money if you don't have a solid opinion, that is money that could be used on regular wagers.

[Saratoga_Mike]

point.... isn't he then locked in if he is trying to get a single like that in every pick three.....why play so many pick threes if you do not have a solid opinion....in response to saratoga i read the book and understand it and all the different methods he advocates.... but i'll bet if you did some calculations regarding the pick six i think you would see that it is usually underlayed for the odds of hitting it..... when i want a fun bet that might hit for a big score i will play a supper for a dollar 1958...or the year that my kids were born or the address where i grew up...etc..etc...

I'm not sure how it's "underlayed" when there's a carryover. There's a difference between an underlay (poor value) and the probability of hitting a wager. If you're playing the Pick 6 for $50 or $60, the probability of hitting it is very low, but that doesn't make it an underlay. Anyway, you've read Steve's book, so I won't bore you with the math behind the Pick 6 and why it's a great wager on carryover days (with a decent bankroll).

[cribking]

I also have read Christ's book and found it very intresting. What I got from the book it is you need a very large bankroll to play the bet seriously. I shifted my focus to the pick four. I can make my plays for far less money and get some very nice returns.

[toussaud]

I also have read Christ's book and found it very intresting. What I got from the book it is you need a very large bankroll to play the bet seriously. I shifted my focus to the pick four. I can make my plays for far less money and get some very nice returns.


it depends on what you mean by "bet seriously". I find an issue with anyone who's main method of playing hthe races is playing pick sixes.

[cribking]

I'm saying I would take the 36,54,72 dollar bet and invest in a pick four with more confidence then I would have in a pick six.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

The simple truth about the Pik6 is that you had better be a better than average handicapper to play it, or very lucky, and any combination of the two would only enhance your play.

My favorite ticket configuration, only because I've hit more on this type of ticket, including one for $50k, is for $72. (1x1x2x2x3x3) I played this type of ticket sans a carryover if I was extremely confident with my two singletons, but usually wouldn't have waded into the pool unless there was a carryover of over $100k.

I love playing the Pik6 and PlacePikALL as a barometer of my handicapping acumen for any given day. Of course, the wager is supported with Pik3 and Pik4 wagers, with my favorite Pik4 configuration a $24 ticket (1x2x3x4).

Without question, your losing days will far outnumber your winning ones, so the secret is to minimize the severity of those losing days, therefore maximizing your profits when you do win.

My research on the play actually yielded this fact; that I had just as good of chance hitting the play on a small ticket as a large one. For a stretch of a two years, I would play my small Pik6 tickets, and support them with a hypothetical ticket in a denomination 100 times greater. Very few times did the larger ticket hit when the smaller one didn't, and nowhere near enough to make the wager profitable, which has been a profitable wager for me during my wagering days.

[toussaud]

The simple truth about the Pik6 is that you had better be a better than average handicapper to play it, or very lucky, and any combination of the two would only enhance your play.

My favorite ticket configuration, only because I've hit more on this type of ticket, including one for $50k, is for $72. (1x1x2x2x3x3) I played this type of ticket sans a carryover if I was extremely confident with my two singletons, but usually wouldn't have waded into the pool unless there was a carryover of over $100k.

I love playing the Pik6 and PlacePikALL as a barometer of my handicapping acumen for any given day. Of course, the wager is supported with Pik3 and Pik4 wagers, with my favorite Pik4 configuration a $24 ticket (1x2x3x4).

Without question, your losing days will far outnumber your winning ones, so the secret is to minimize the severity of those losing days, therefore maximizing your profits when you do win.

My research on the play actually yielded this fact; that I had just as good of chance hitting the play on a small ticket as a large one. For a stretch of a two years, I would play my small Pik6 tickets, and support them with a hypothetical ticket in a denomination 100 times greater. Very few times did the larger ticket hit when the smaller one didn't, and nowhere near enough to make the wager profitable, which has been a profitable wager for me during my wagering days.
this

[fmolf]

if the odds of hitting the pick six are 3,000 to one for instance... it would need to pay 6,000 just for fair value... i think the odds are higher than that of hitting it...there are many many combinations in a 6 race sequance of fields of eightif you just used probability statistics the odds would be much greater... i will always believe that the pick four is the best wager to bet a little and win alot with good opinions...pick three is good also.....supers are fun wagers and nothing more than sheer gambling..IMHO

[andymays]

If I remember correctly last year Twin Spires had a deal where people could contribute whatever they wanted towards a pick 6 play when there were large carryovers. If I'm not mistaken on one large carryover at Belmont or Aqueduct they put together a $50,000 (yes 50K) ticket and still missed. Despite having three experts pick the ticket they still missed and had 5 on one ticket that paid a couple of grand. I don't think they did it again after that.

It's been my experience that playing a $8 or $16 ticket is the best way to go!

I've played large tickets as well and for whatever reason do better on smaller tickets. I think when you play a smaller ticket it forces you to take a stand!

[point given]

point.... isn't he then locked in if he is trying to get a single like that in every pick three.....why play so many pick threes if you do not have a solid opinion....etc..etc...

i think he plays it like a handicap tourney where you are looking for a price in each race, so he is singling the first race and only risking 9 per play and getting a price in the first leg which gets a better p3 payoff, most people want/need to be alive with any price in the first race, he is willing to go down early

[fmolf]

in order to spend 63 dollars and play 9 pick threes it would need to be structured like this
r1-1
r2-3
r3-3
r4-1
r5-3
r6-3
r7-1
r8-3
r9-3
...is this how he plays it so each pic 3 sequance has a single..then he has action in every race on every pic three...seems like a money burning strategy to me...oft times i will play pic 3's with two singles...one a short priced favorite the other my mid or long shot opinion horse while spreading in the other leg where i am less than confident or race that is wide open and contentious

[Saratoga_Mike]

if the odds of hitting the pick six are 3,000 to one for instance... it would need to pay 6,000 just for fair value... i think the odds are higher than that of hitting it...there are many many combinations in a 6 race sequance of fields of eightif you just used probability statistics the odds would be much greater... i will always believe that the pick four is the best wager to bet a little and win alot with good opinions...pick three is good also.....supers are fun wagers and nothing more than sheer gambling..IMHO

I'm not opposed to Pick 3 or 4, but I can easily argue the Pick 6 with a carryover is a better bet. There are situations where the payout on a carryover day is 115% or more of what's bet. Unless there's some sort of guarantee situation, that never happens with a Pick 3 or 4. All you're really arguing is you don't want to invest enough in a Pick 6 to have a reasonable chance of winning. If someone likes to bet $1/race, they would say you're crazy to bet the Pick 4, as there are 4,056 combos in a Pick 4 with 8-horse fields and they could only cover one of those combos.

[Saratoga_Mike]

If I remember correctly last year Twin Spires had a deal where people could contribute whatever they wanted towards a pick 6 play when there were large carryovers. If I'm not mistaken on one large carryover at Belmont or Aqueduct they put together a $50,000 (yes 50K) ticket and still missed. Despite having three experts pick the ticket they still missed and had 5 on one ticket that paid a couple of grand. I don't think they did it again after that.

It's been my experience that playing a $8 or $16 ticket is the best way to go!

I've played large tickets as well and for whatever reason do better on smaller tickets. I think when you play a smaller ticket it forces you to take a stand!

If you've hit more than one Pick 6 with an $8 ticket (4 combinations in total!), I think you should turn professional and just focus on betting horses b/c you're either the luckiest person or best handicapper in the world.

[point given]

in order to spend 63 dollars and play 9 pick threes it would need to be structured like this
r1-1
r2-3
r3-3
r4-1
r5-3
r6-3
r7-1
r8-3
r9-3
...is this how he plays it so each pic 3 sequance has a single..then he has action in every race on every pic three...seems like a money burning strategy to me...oft times i will play pic 3's with two singles...one a short priced favorite the other my mid or long shot opinion horse while spreading in the other leg where i am less than confident or race that is wide open and contentious
Yeah, r1-3 1x3x3 ; r2-4 1x3x3 etc.

I don't play like this, but he does ok with it for some big scores with minimal $ outlay. Another guy plays 2 x2 x2 $8 outlay with longshots only

[andymays]

If you've hit more than one Pick 6 with an $8 ticket (4 combinations in total!), I think you should turn professional and just focus on betting horses b/c you're either the luckiest person or best handicapper in the world.


Santa Anita on October 23rd (I think that was the date) 1994 only ticket with 6 on a $8 ticket for over 500k!

[DeanT]

I think people play them because they dream. Every gambling game needs some sort of dream bet, and the pick 6 is it. To each their own.

For me personally, I am of the belief that I would rather chew on bees than play them regularly. A $2 base wager for an almost unhittable bet? Pass the bees please.

[plainolebill]

The year Volponi won the BC Classic a couple of guys took down the whole P6 pool with a $16 ticket: $6M

[Tee]

Wasn't that the year of the pick six scandal?


The year Volponi won the BC Classic a couple of guys took down the whole P6 pool with a $16 ticket: $6M

[fmolf]

yes i believe it was.... it is a very unhittable bet in my estimation and even on carryover days if chalk hits in three legs the payoffs are not very large...the problem with playing on carryover days even though the payout is greater than the rake is generally those payouts are underlayed because more people hit it and it pays less....there are 262,144 combos in 6 eight horse fields.....randomly playing #'s makes the odds about 262,144to 1 to hit it......so it would need to pay over 500,000 to not be undervalued...figure in money already bet into pools on first day and this number comes down a little bit....i find it very rare that a single ticket hits on carryover days

[Peter Allen]

The Scoop6 - which runs in the UK - is a similar bet with a regular carryover.

The people who do best on it are the syndicates who play between £40,000 and £80,000 into a carryover pool of more than £1 million (multiply by 1.47 for US$ conversion).

There have been some winners with a single $2 line - one woman hit it for £1.3 million once - but the majority of big pools are taking down by syndicates run by people like Harry 'The Dog' Findlay, 'The Squirrel', Chris Broome and Murray Swan.

The small players are generally competing with each other for the same selections so when four favorites win and then other two are in the front three in the betting then the payoffs are tiny.

[andymays]

Syndicates who play huge tickets often lose.

Many times when they hit the pick 6 they still lose money.

Find 2 or 3 singles in races that you feel the favorite is weak. There's no law against making a 30-1 shot one of your singles. Take a shot with small money and do the "David and Goliath" thing.

The pick 6 is fun to play as long as you don't get hurt playing it.

[toussaud]

people who make a sole living playing the pick 6 to me sound like people who come up to you and say "yeah I play the lottery for a living"

you are right, there is nothing wrong with the pick 6 as long as you remember what it is and dont' get hurt. it's supposed to be fun. there is nothing like being alive in a pick 6 with 3 legs to go on a carryover day. that to me is worth the 20 bucks that feeling.

[fmolf]

yes i agreeit is worth the price but i can still get just as many thrills form the 20 in a p-4 or p-3.....although it is fun to be alive in either especially if you have already had a price come in in one or more legs

[andymays]

It's a question of bankroll. If you only have $50 or $100 for the day then you shouldn't play it. If you have a few hundred then $8 is worth a shot.

[the little guy]

people who make a sole living playing the pick 6 to me sound like people who come up to you and say "yeah I play the lottery for a living"




It would be difficult to be more wrong than this.

Pick-6 Carryovers significantly lower the takeout, sometimes making playing the Pick-6 a positive equity wager, and it is theoretically the best value bet at some racetracks as long as the pool is significant.

It's your decision if you don't understand it, or don't know how to play it, but denigrating those that do is a mistake.

[toussaud]

It would be difficult to be more wrong than this.

Pick-6 Carryovers significantly lower the takeout, sometimes making playing the Pick-6 a positive equity wager, and it is theoretically the best value bet at some racetracks as long as the pool is significant.

It's your decision if you don't understand it, or don't know how to play it, but denigrating those that do is a mistake.

I play the pick 6 but for fun, and I've hit a couple as I said earlier. I am not saying that you should not play pick 6's. I'm saying to do so as one's main wager is foolish.


Not only that, half the people like you and I do nothing but wait for carryover days, so while it reduces the takeout you have more people playing, so it's at best a wash unless you are able to get some longshots in on your ticket.

[1st time lasix]

After a decade of thoughtful experience.....I consider myself an accomplished handicapper...good at several different methods/approaches. Humble enough to understand that I will both good days and bad. I play within my bankroll means $$$ and relish the challange. When there is a significant Pic six carryover at one of the tracks I follow I naturally attempt to handicap the races for my opinions. At this time I decide to play or pass. Do I consier it possible or not? When I do play...... i have two or three other players that pool a portion of their bankroll for this exotic to share the expense. I generally put together anywhere from 2 to 15 various tickets to get adequate coverage between possible singles with several back ups. My exposure might be as small as 100 ....but it rarely goes above 700. Here is the thing: I believe that the only way i can overcome the onerous take-out in this game is to play for those big days when i win enough to cover all the losing days. That means I am a 90% exotic player. I do not believe i am the type to grind out a return playing 6/5 shots to win. I don't care if it is a double, trifecta, pick 4 or pick 6 that I choose to participate in. To say that any one of these pools is foolish to consider is a mistake. It truly depends on your opinions and where an overlay return is possible. Each has its place and the carryover pool is an important aspect to the mathamatics. Many times if alive after two or three legs....i will use the final pick 4 or pick 3 as a hedge with the hoses i liked that are not on the tickets still alive. I do have one rule i follow however in doubles or pick threes----if i must include the favorite in the first leg....I pass.

[DeanT]

It would be difficult to be more wrong than this.

Pick-6 Carryovers significantly lower the takeout, sometimes making playing the Pick-6 a positive equity wager, and it is theoretically the best value bet at some racetracks as long as the pool is significant.

It's your decision if you don't understand it, or don't know how to play it, but denigrating those that do is a mistake.

Andy,

I agree with what you say, and denigrating people who play it is not ideal. However, do you not agree that this bet is anti-stimulative, and perhaps not great for racing overall in terms of churning handles?

Years ago, when we had WPS and ex betting in three races a card, a tri on two races, and that's it, people had a better chance to churn money. You brought a $100 bankroll. Race one you bet $6 wps, and a $1 ex box for $20. You had a good chance to cash and rebet that money at a 6 churn rate. Now, bring that $100, spend $24 of it on a pick 6 and it goes poof. The churn rate for 99% of bettors with the bet is zero.

With tracks wanting carryover days, all that does is make even more money go poof. Without a payout that cash is out of circulation until the next evening. I do think it brings new money to the track there is a carryover at, that is obvious, but how much is new money into the system of racing? I would bet not much, although the way we measure metrics in racing I don't think anyone knows.

Regardless, I think these bets for those players who are not highly capitalized are a handle killer. I think we should look at bettors being partners rather than an atm machine. If they lose too much, like on bets like the pick 6, their handle falls appreciably overall. Don't get me wrong, I like variety for wagers. But I think we have to be honest with ourselves with this bet for some patrons (the majority). For them, high takeout might be the gun, but low hit rate bets like the pick 6 are the bullets.

jmo.

[andymays]

Andy,

I agree with what you say, and denigrating people who play it is not ideal. However, do you not agree that this bet is anti-stimulative, and perhaps not great for racing overall in terms of churning handles?

Years ago, when we had WPS and ex betting in three races a card, a tri on two races, and that's it, people had a better chance to churn money. You brought a $100 bankroll. Race one you bet $6 wps, and a $1 ex box for $20. You had a good chance to cash and rebet that money at a 6 churn rate. Now, bring that $100, spend $24 of it on a pick 6 and it goes poof. The churn rate for 99% of bettors with the bet is zero.

With tracks wanting carryover days, all that does is make even more money go poof. Without a payout that cash is out of circulation until the next evening. I do think it brings new money to the track there is a carryover at, that is obvious, but how much is new money into the system of racing? I would bet not much, although the way we measure metrics in racing I don't think anyone knows.

Regardless, I think these bets for those players who are not highly capitalized are a handle killer. I think we should look at bettors being partners rather than an atm machine. If they lose too much, like on bets like the pick 6, their handle falls appreciably overall. High takeout is the gun, and low hit rate bets like the pick 6 are the bullets.

jmo.


You are right, just look at Santa Anita. Almost 50% carryovers yet handle was down 12% from all sources. Without carryovers and big pick 4 pools what would their handle have been. In my opinion Pro Ride is a fraudulent surface and more people should be speaking up about that (although that's another subject)!

[the little guy]

Dean,

I don't have the energy to debate the pros and cons of the Pick-6. I fail to understand how offering a larger variety of bets, as opposed to the old days, has hurt the game, and see this as an argument that fails to understand the interests of our betting public. People can choose to make whatever bets suit their interests.

My argument with the other poster was specific. Likening the Pick-6 to the Lottery only proves one thing.....that poster has absolutely zero understanding of the bet. It happens to be an extremely complex and interesting bet. Is it for everybody? Absolutely not. Is it possible it has some drawbacks ( as you suggested )? Perhaps. Is it a poor bet for small money? Probably. However, there is no denying it is a fascinating wager. Why people, not you, need to comment, on the internet, about things they admittedly don't understand, is beyond me.

[toussaud]

Dean,

I don't have the energy to debate the pros and cons of the Pick-6. I fail to understand how offering a larger variety of bets, as opposed to the old days, has hurt the game, and see this as an argument that fails to understand the interests of our betting public. People can choose to make whatever bets suit their interests.

My argument with the other poster was specific. Likening the Pick-6 to the Lottery only proves one thing.....that poster has absolutely zero understanding of the bet. It happens to be an extremely complex and interesting bet. Is it for everybody? Absolutely not. Is it possible it has some drawbacks ( as you suggested )? Perhaps. Is it a poor bet for small money? Probably. However, there is no denying it is a fascinating wager. Why people, not you, need to comment, on the internet, about things they admittedly don't understand, is beyond me.


in trying to get off on a tangent, you have missed.. twice.. what I have said. I never said it was foolish to play the pick 6 nor was it a foolish wager.

I speficailly said that someone who does NOTHING BUT PLAY PICK 6'S is foolish.

[the little guy]

in trying to get off on a tangent, you have missed.. twice.. what I have said. I never said it was foolish to play the pick 6 nor was it a foolish wager.

I speficailly said that someone who does NOTHING BUT PLAY PICK 6'S is foolish.


I think you are the one suffering from a reading comprehension problem.

[DeanT]

I speficailly said that someone who does NOTHING BUT PLAY PICK 6'S is foolish.

I don't think that is correct. It is like saying people who just bet show are foolish like we read sometimes. I know someone that bets show and makes money every year, upon year. Foolish for some, yes, but people can win at it, so it is not foolish for them.

Andy,

Agreed on offering bets. I am just worried about the line it crosses in terms of helping the game. You mention that pick 6's are great value in larger pools, or with carryovers and that is correct, but I worry about the plethora of them at all tracks every day offered that are negative value. It goes to my seeded belief that we do not do things optimally in racing because we are trying to be perfectly competitive in some ways, whilst we are a monopoly and should be working together.

Australia does this and other hard to hit bets proud, and the right way, imo. They charge 22% or so on these bets. But at specific times of the year (the law there says that they can only charge a max take of 16% overall), they offer out pick 4's with zero takeout, because they give the added takeout back. These bets are stimulative and give bettors cash back. Recently they have offered a national pick 6 at a 10% take as well. Per capita wagering in AUS, with tons of competition is over $400. In North America we are at $40. They bet $8B last year in a country 1/15th the size of North America in terms of GDP, so they are doing something right.

I think back to the NFL and Monday Night Football. It was a hard sell, but they pulled it off. It started getting popular and the rest is history. It helped the game. If Monday Night Football was racing, there would have been a game, the other teams see it is popular and then they stage 14 other games of brutal quality against it, hurting the game overall. Most pick 6 bets do not bring in enough money, and in no way they are any value at all. Yet there they are, de-churning money.

What if we did a Monday night Football/Australia thing instead. One full national pick 6 a day. 25% take, you get a special card to play it, or your adw covers it. There is value for one, for two, we pull an Australia and at the end of the year some of this cash is credited back to the player card. On January 1st you have a new bankroll to play the national pick 6. This might breed new money, syndicates and all the rest, make this is huge value bet for the player, one that is played yearly, and good for the game. Sweden does similar with their harness pick 7. Last year in a country with the GDP of about San Francisco's there was a $35 million dollar pick 7 pool, the V75. The national bet takers realized the money this pulled in and started marketing it world wide to lotto players and sports gamblers everywhere. Here is a commercial for it. You don't see racing commercials like this every day, do you?

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OK, way off oon a tangent, and you said you had no time for this debate, however I think we can agree by working together we can do much better on low hit rate bets to make them value for the player and good for the game?

I'm tired now.

[toussaud]

I don't think that is correct. It is like saying people who just bet show are foolish like we read sometimes. I know someone that bets show and makes money every year, upon year. Foolish for some, yes, but people can win at it, so it is not foolish for them.

Andy,

Agreed on offering bets. I am just worried about the line it crosses in terms of helping the game. You mention that pick 6's are great value in larger pools, or with carryovers and that is correct, but I worry about the plethora of them at all tracks every day offered that are negative value. It goes to my seeded belief that we do not do things optimally in racing because we are trying to be perfectly competitive in some ways, whilst we are a monopoly and should be working together.

Australia does this and other hard to hit bets proud, and the right way, imo. They charge 22% or so on these bets. But at specific times of the year (the law there says that they can only charge a max take of 16% overall), they offer out pick 4's with zero takeout, because they give the added takeout back. These bets are stimulative and give bettors cash back. Recently they have offered a national pick 6 at a 10% take as well. Per capita wagering in AUS, with tons of competition is over $400. In North America we are at $40. They bet $8B last year in a country 1/15th the size of North America in terms of GDP, so they are doing something right.

I think back to the NFL and Monday Night Football. It was a hard sell, but they pulled it off. It started getting popular and the rest is history. It helped the game. If Monday Night Football was racing, there would have been a game, the other teams see it is popular and then they stage 14 other games of brutal quality against it, hurting the game overall. Most pick 6 bets do not bring in enough money, and in no way they are any value at all. Yet there they are, de-churning money.

What if we did a Monday night Football/Australia thing instead. One full national pick 6 a day. 25% take, you get a special card to play it, or your adw covers it. There is value for one, for two, we pull an Australia and at the end of the year some of this cash is credited back to the player card. On January 1st you have a new bankroll to play the national pick 6. This might breed new money, syndicates and all the rest, and make this is huge value bet for the player, and good for the game. Sweden does similar with their harness pick 7. Last year in a country with the GDP of about San Jose/San Francisco there was a $35 million dollar pick 7 pool. The national bet takers realized the money this pulled in and started marketing it world wide to lotto players and sports gamblers everywhere. Here is a commercial for it. You don't see racing commercials like this every day, do you?

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OK, way off oon a tangent, and you said you had no time for this debate, however I think we can agree by working together we can do much better on low hit rate bets to make them value for the player and good for the game?

I'm tired now.

so you are basically saying that the pick six is not a bad bet, but there are too many of them out there and that there should be a nationalized pick 6 instead of each track having one every day?

[DeanT]

so you are basically saying that the pick six is not a bad bet, but there are too many of them out there and that there should be a nationalized pick 6 instead of each track having one every day?

It is a bad bet for some, and it is a horrid bet at 99% of the tracks out there, but it is a better bet when you get cash back and work the bet to stimulate interest in racing, like others have. If you have a national pick 6 betting card you learn to play, group money with others perhaps, and take a stab at winning in a years worth of playing.

We showed on the blog a post from a professional bettor who wrote about multi leg bets. Many times these bets are below parlay because the pools are so small. If we have a national bet, or a huge pool, these bets become better value. But right now too many of them are cannon fodder because they are too small. He used a pick 7 example, which Woodbine ran for years.

http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2008/09/handicapping-multi-leg-wagers.html

It would be great to have 3 consecutive 20-1 shots win in a Pick 3 on the WEG circuit, but unfortunately the pools usually only contain approximately $4000, leaving around $3000 after takeout. A $1 Win parlay of 3 20-1 shots would pay $9261, but hitting that pays you at most $3000, and less if someone else has also hit it. Making a Pick 3 wager with horses going off at 13.45-1 or more in each leg is a mathematically poor bet. This effect is most pronounced in Super 7 wagering. When the pool has a $10000 guaranteed payout, 7 horses of 2.75-1 or more creates a parlay that would pay more than the $10000 that you would receive. For a $50000 carryover pool, the odds only increase to 3.7-1. For a $250000 carryover, it is 4.9-1.

[toussaud]

It is a bad bet for some, and it is a horrid bet at 99% of the tracks out there, but it is a better bet when you get cash back and work the bet to stimulate interest in racing, like others have. If you have a national pick 6 betting card you learn to play, group money with others perhaps, and take a stab at winning in a years worth of playing.

We showed on the blog a post from a professional bettor who wrote about multi leg bets. Many times these bets are below parlay because the pools are so small. If we have a national bet, or a huge pool, these bets become better value. But right now too many of them are cannon fodder because they are too small.

http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2008/09/handicapping-multi-leg-wagers.html
interesting

[Pick Six Syndicate]

Certain wagers are structured, intentionally or not, to favor the highly capitalized horseplayer. The pick 6 is at the fore.

[the little guy]

The Pick-6 is, basically, the most extreme example available of how success is determined more by how well you bet than by how well you handicap. This obviously goes hand in hand with it being a bet, as has been said, for well capitalized players. Thinking you will make money in this bet by having " good opinions " is, essentially a mistake, as you hit Pick-6s by surviving races...not so much by handicapping them well. I understand there is a correlation between the two but much less so than in other bets. It is a question of how much room your bankroll allows you for error in any given race.

[philcski]

Why do I play the pick 6?

I'd love to say it's because it's potentially a positive-equity gamble, but given the elusive quality of the wager that really isn't the sole reason. If someone offered you a win of $11 for a flip of a coin on a $10 bet out of your bankroll of $1,000, of course you would play that into eternity because the variance is so low- your chance of ruin is very nearly 0%. You'd be a guaranteed winner. Now if someone said I'll pay you $10,000 for a $200 bet that you can hit 3% of the time (a positive expectation of over 50%, much more than your coinflip 5%) but your bankroll is $1,000, you'd have to think twice about it because your chance of ruin before winning is extremely high (86% to be exact).

It's because every time you place the bet, you have a chance of making a life-changing score. When I decide to play it, I become obsessive in handicapping and structuring the ticket, because there's no place to cut corners. Each decision could mean winning or losing and each additional horse means a significant increase in the cost of the ticket. A great example was this Sunday's carryover at Aqueduct. I felt there was an 80% chance one of the two favorites would win the first leg. Adding an additional horse (unweighted) would have made the ticket 50% higher, and while the winner would have been the one I would have added, it would have meant I had to cut corners in other races where I felt more coverage was required given the budget I had predetermined. Obviously I was out after the first leg but if given the choice again, I would have stuck with just the two favorites. Decisions like this improve your handicapping for other wagers as well. It's easy to be sloppy and add horses in a pick 3 or pick 4 and not really make a stand against those you don't like, but not in the pick 6.

[fmolf]

phil and little guy...both well said and i understand your points...i never make more than a token wager into the p 6 in hopes of getting lucky... the biggest i have ever played is 16 dollars 4x2 and 2 singles...i very rarely play pick threes and fours for more than that amt either.....if i do not have a definite opinion in one leg of p 3 and two legs of p 4 i will not play.... i also need to feel the vaorite is vulnerable in two of three in p3's and tow of four in p4's if i can be confident in the other two legs!bet small and win big!
i feel the best chance for a little player to hit the p6 is on non carry over days when big syndicates and the deep pocket wise guys are not playing.If chalk hits in three of six races they are all over it and payouts shrink.....if you take all hopeless longshots in the races you spread in your doing nothing more than playing the lottery for a smaller prize!i dislike throwing my good money in for the sharks to feed on...... i find just as much enjoyment being alive in the p3's an p4's as the p6 and it happens way more frequently!....glad to be hearing everyones opinions on this subject...it has turned into sort of a discussion on money management...thanks to all who have responded!

[Hajck Hillstrom]

If I were to play it on a regular basis..I would use 3 singles. IMHO, I refer to three confident singles in a Pik6 sequence as "The Holy Grail."

Rarely does the opportunity even present itself, but if your 3 singles hit, you are well on your way. That being said.... I once went with 3 singletons, on the opening 3 legs, hitting all 3, and went 3x4x5 in the final 3 legs, hitting nary a one coming home on a $120 ticket, confirming that the trip from the penthouse to the outhouse is a lonely one.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Santa Anita on October 23rd (I think that was the date) 1994 only ticket with 6 on a $8 ticket for over 500k!

Yes, and somone hit the Powerball lottery about a month ago for $50 mm+ on a $1 ticket. To state the obvious, it had nothing to do with thought or skill. If someone wants to play the Pick 6 as a lottery for a few dollars, I think that's fine. They should just realize what they're doing.

[Saratoga_Mike]

yes i believe it was.... it is a very unhittable bet in my estimation and even on carryover days if chalk hits in three legs the payoffs are not very large...the problem with playing on carryover days even though the payout is greater than the rake is generally those payouts are underlayed because more people hit it and it pays less....there are 262,144 combos in 6 eight horse fields.....randomly playing #'s makes the odds about 262,144to 1 to hit it......so it would need to pay over 500,000 to not be undervalued...figure in money already bet into pools on first day and this number comes down a little bit....i find it very rare that a single ticket hits on carryover days

If you believe every horse in every race has an equal chance of winning (I don't), then your math is correct. Otherwise, it's just simply false logic.

[andymays]

Yes, and somone hit the Powerball lottery about a month ago for $50 mm+ on a $1 ticket. To state the obvious, it had nothing to do with thought or skill. If someone wants to play the Pick 6 as a lottery for a few dollars, I think that's fine. They should just realize what they're doing.


You're sounding like a guy that's never made a score. Surely you've hit something big if you've been playing a while. I'll admit my score was over the top but saying it had nothing to do with skill is false. No doubt there was luck involved but remember that handicapping is educated guessing. If you never play longshots then you'll never hit one!

[Saratoga_Mike]

Certain wagers are structured, intentionally or not, to favor the highly capitalized horseplayer. The pick 6 is at the fore.

I could not agree more. I think people who aren't looking put a lot of capital at risk, which I understand, are resentful of the Pick 6 for that reason.

[the little guy]

Yes, and somone hit the Powerball lottery about a month ago for $50 mm+ on a $1 ticket. To state the obvious, it had nothing to do with thought or skill. If someone wants to play the Pick 6 as a lottery for a few dollars, I think that's fine. They should just realize what they're doing.


What he said.

[andymays]

One of the great things about Horse Racing is that you can bet a little to win a lot.

Whether it's a $1,000 trifecta or a $5,000 superfecta or a $10,000 pick 4 it can be done with a little money, a little skill, and a little luck.

As I said earlier we are making educated guesses as to who will win. The more educated your guess is the more likely that you will win.

[Saratoga_Mike]

You're sounding like a guy that's never made a score. Surely you've hit something big if you've been playing a while. I'll admit my score was over the top but saying it had nothing to do with skill is false. No doubt there was luck involved but remember that handicapping is educated guessing. If you never play longshots then you'll never hit one!

Until last summer, I never played the Pick 6 seriously. In July, I bought Steve Crist's book on exotic betting. Crist is considered one of the best Pick Six players in the country. That isn't just my opinion. It's the opinion of Beyer, Davidowitz et al. But I digress. The first day I went to Saratoga (8/18/08) I bet about $900 into the Pick Six. I hit for $10,843 (W-2G's in front of me) plus a number of consol tickets. I posted the win on Steve's blog at the time, thanking him for his great book--I believe back posts are still available. Now since I'm honest, I'll admit I played another 3 or 4 times by the end of the meet (several days with no carryover--not smart) and lost probably $4k. On the yr, I probably broke even, maybe even lost a little. My other big score was when I had $1,400 to win on Charasmatic in the Preakness (paid nearly $20 to win). I bet that at Dueling Grounds, which is right across the TN border. It's now called KY Downs. Oh one more. Four yrs ago at Charles Town, I had a horse in that should have been even money and he went off at roughly 17-1. In his prior two starts he had finished close to dead last both times (two back he got left at the gate and was gutless if he didn't have the front and one back he was on an off-track that he hated). He was a pure sprinter going 4.5 furs. I bet $1,600 in the race. I collected just shy of $20k. Yes, I had a lot of heavy numbers that didn't work, but the win pool was probably $20k that night, so I couldn't have just bet him to win. So those are my three larger scores.

A $500k Pick 6 ticket - I assume it had to contain at least two winners over $30 and two or more over $15. On an $8 ticket (4 combos), I'd call that pure luck. I don't think it's possible to handicap that many high-priced horses into only 4 combos. Just my opinion.

[andymays]

Mike, your right it's the toughest of bets. The day I hit there were at least 3 vulnerable favorites that went off at 3-5 that I beat. Every horse I had got the trip I thought they would and not one of them got into trouble. It takes a lot of luck for that to happen.

The truth is I am a terrible pick 6 player. I usually have the hard ones and leave out the easy ones. I can't tell you how many times I've left out a 3-5 shot and had 5.

I do play on a daily basis and have had years when I've shown a big profit and years when I have lost big. The biggest losing day I ever had was $30,000. I have been from the outhouse to the penthouse and back again a few times.

It's the toughest game there is but we keep going back don't we?

[Saratoga_Mike]

Mike, your right it's the toughest of bets. The day I hit there were at least 3 vulnerable favorites that went off at 3-5 that I beat. Every horse I had got the trip I thought they would and not one of them got into trouble. It takes a lot of luck for that to happen.

The truth is I am a terrible pick 6 player. I usually have the hard ones and leave out the easy ones. I can't tell you how many times I've left out a 3-5 shot and had 5.

I do play on a daily basis and have had years when I've shown a big profit and years when I have lost big. The biggest losing day I ever had was $30,000. I have been from the outhouse to the penthouse and back again a few times.

It's the toughest game there is but we keep going back don't we?

You lost $30k in one day - just buy a horse, at least that loss is fully deductible!

[Saratoga_Mike]

Mike, your right it's the toughest of bets. The day I hit there were at least 3 vulnerable favorites that went off at 3-5 that I beat. Every horse I had got the trip I thought they would and not one of them got into trouble. It takes a lot of luck for that to happen.

The truth is I am a terrible pick 6 player. I usually have the hard ones and leave out the easy ones. I can't tell you how many times I've left out a 3-5 shot and had 5.

I do play on a daily basis and have had years when I've shown a big profit and years when I have lost big. The biggest losing day I ever had was $30,000. I have been from the outhouse to the penthouse and back again a few times.

It's the toughest game there is but we keep going back don't we?

And we keep coming back b/c it's action.

[andymays]

And we keep coming back b/c it's action.



And the band plays on!

[fmolf]

i agree....yes their is handicapping knowledge and skill involved in constructing tickets.....if a good p6 player would concentrate on the p4's i belive his roi would go up..... personally i have hit many p4's and still i cannot see throwing money after the p6..i laugh when at gulfstream park i see a p6 pool of 6 or 7,000 and people play into it.....in a six race sequence al too often the horse that does not figure one iota will win one of the legs

[Hajck Hillstrom]

...in a six race sequence, all too often the horse that does not figure one iota will win one of the legs....and there is nothing in the game....NOTHING.... that is more satisfying than having that horse on a winning Pik6 ticket.

[andymays]

....and there is nothing in the game....NOTHING.... that is more satisfying than having that horse on a winning Pik6 ticket.


Especially in the final leg!

[DanG]

if a good p6 player would concentrate on the p4's
They do…I don’t understand why any wager is exclusive of another.

Dean makes excellent points in this thread; I have little doubt he P6 has wasted more cash from undercapitalized players then most other racing wagers combined. That observation however has nothing to do with the thread theme of its some type of degenerate roulette wheel.

The good P6 players in the world are as serious as a heart attack and the wager is not unlike most high stakes gambles; it comes down to betting capital, experience in ticket construction, insane work ethic, a brass set and occasionally some paramedics for the photo in the last leg.

[JohnGalt1]

When I started betting horses seriously in the early '90s I played a pick six ticket of my win bets--usually between $4-12--just in case they all won. Back then I found a win bet in EVERY race. Thank goodness I was a $2-5 better.

Eventually, after simulcasting I only played when I had a strong opinion at a track. My bets were usually between $24-100. The largest bet I made was $320 chasing a $2M carryover while I was in Vegas. I was 5/6 and collected over $900. That same day I played a $48 ticket at Bay Meadows and hit for $14K. A good start to that vacation.

I have hit 8 pick sixes ranging from $210 at Hollywood to 3 over 10K. One cost $216 the others were all between $48 to $100.

But I'll go weeks without playing one. I'll play if I believe I have a good chance to hit at least 5/6, there's a carryover, or I like no more than 3 chalks.

I won't play if 2 races, or one race with 10+ horses, are chaos races.

I'm mostly a win better, so I'd rather figure out who's going to finish first than third or fourth.

The high 5 is a mystery to me and can't figure out why anmyone would try to pick 1 through 5 in a maiden claiming race.

To each there own and good luck and positive handicapping results to all our varied ways.

[fmolf]

i have enjoyed all the different viewpoints and strategies being expressed here and i understand that it is a matter of personal preference....people are going to play them and win them...someone has to!..good luck to all p6 players i hope you catch your elusive "life changing score"..i'll continue to make the p3 an p4 my best exotic wager....i'll also continue with my larger sized win bets and exacta plays when the odds dictate such wagers... good luck to all whatever wagers you prefer and whatever style you employ

[philcski]

i have enjoyed all the different viewpoints and strategies being expressed here and i understand that it is a matter of personal preference....people are going to play them and win them...someone has to!..good luck to all p6 players i hope you catch your elusive "life changing score"..i'll continue to make the p3 an p4 my best exotic wager....i'll also continue with my larger sized win bets and exacta plays when the odds dictate such wagers... good luck to all whatever wagers you prefer and whatever style you employ

Nothing wrong with that... I'd say there's a high correlation between pick 6 players and lithium users...

the pick 4 is actually my personal favorite bet.

[1st time lasix]

Dan G is right on. The two plays {pick 4 and Pick 6} are not mutually exclusive. Particularly because they have a tendency at most venues to overlap. Say I have handicapped the six .....and the numerous tickets i have constructed A/B/C are a bit too expensive for my 200-700 bank roll. I could just pass .......Or .....I might make a marginal horse in one of the last four legs a single in the $1 pick four after removing him from a $2 pick six. I still have coverage but at a lower denomination. What if i am alive after two legs with a 10 or 15 to 1 shot.... or with two 8-1 shots? ......I might just play the pick 4 around the ticket i am alive to with my marginal opinions as a modest hedge. Chances are that the ticket i am alive to with the long shot is a "back up" ticket without ideal coverage. Hedging large exotic tickets have been covered in previous threads....but a modest player trying for big upside must consider it in certain circumstance in my opinion. I could easily be wrong! ********** I have a question for all you experienced pick four players. Has the lower .50 denomination at keeneland had any noticable effect on payouts?

[andymays]

I would imagine that the 50 cent pick 4's would lower the huge prices because of the increased spreading and increase the super low prices because of increased spreading.

[fmolf]

Dan G is right on. The two plays {pick 4 and Pick 6} are not mutually exclusive. Particularly because they have a tendency at most venues to overlap. Say I have handicapped the six .....and the numerous tickets i have constructed A/B/C are a bit too expensive for my 200-700 bank roll. I could just pass .......Or .....I might make a marginal horse in one of the last four legs a single in the $1 pick four after removing him from a $2 pick six. I still have coverage but at a lower denomination. What if i am alive after two legs with a 10 or 15 to 1 shot.... or with two 8-1 shots? ......I might just play the pick 4 around the ticket i am alive to with my marginal opinions as a modest hedge. Chances are that the ticket i am alive to with the long shot is a "back up" ticket without ideal coverage. Hedging large exotic tickets have been covered in previous threads....but a modest player trying for big upside must consider it in certain circumstance in my opinion. I could easily be wrong! ********** I have a question for all you experienced pick four players. Has the lower .50 denomination at keeneland had any noticable effect on payouts?i do not play pick fours at keeneland..cannot figure the poly... but as a rule i do not play any 50 cent p4's their are plenty of others around to play if i find a sequence i like..i agree payoffs seem depressed..