I want revenge

[toussaud]

am I the only one who thinks he's a fraud?

[andymays]

What do you base your opinion on?

[toussaud]

He is an above avg horse beating up on allowence sprinters in new york going 9 furlongs

[andymays]

He is an above avg horse beating up on allowence sprinters in new york going 9 furlongs


The field in his last was weak but he had 5 to 10 lengths of trouble. I don't think many others could have won with that much trouble. His prior race was not only fast and earned a big number, according to Talamo he had a ton left. If he had a lot more to give then nobody beats him in the Derby!

[toussaud]

The field in his last was weak but he had 5 to 10 lengths of trouble. I don't think many others could have won with that much trouble. His prior race was not only fast and earned a big number, according to Talamo he had a ton left. If he had a lot more to give then nobody beats him in the Derby!


again, 5-10 lengths of trouble against what? if there was a decent route horse in that race he loses. I dont' think he beats Musket man or general quarters in that race and neither of them I would consider upper class 3YO's as far as the derby goes.


I am just not very impressed, even with the troubled trip by what he's beat. I expect a decent calibur horse to be able to toy with allowence horses

[andymays]

I guess thats why we bet on races.

It will be fun to see who's right in a couple of weeks. Good Luck!

[slewis]

?He is an above avg horse beating up on allowence sprinters in new york going 9 furlongs

Well how do you explain the time of the race being a second faster than older horses in a grade 3 the race prior to the wood???

And spotting the field 5 lengths to boot...you can deduct another .6 or so second off his winning time...

You really confident in labeling him a "fraud"?

If IWR has any drawbacks it's that that race MIGHT have been his Kentucky Derby, because he had to work so hard to win.....

Other then that..... he's the real deal.

[toussaud]

?

Well how do you explain the time of the race being a second faster than older horses in a grade 3 the race prior to the wood???

And spotting the field 5 lengths to boot...you can deduct another .6 or so second off his winning time...

You really confident in labeling him a "fraud"?

If IWR has any drawbacks it's that that race MIGHT have been his Kentucky Derby, because he had to work so hard to win.....

Other then that..... he's the real deal.

you have a habit of speaking in defenatives when speaking your opinion. I've noticed that.


I never said IWR wasn't a grade 1 horse. I am saying he's a fraud of being the derby favoriate.

[OTM Al]

As someone who has seen both favs (plus Dunkirk if you want to add him in) live and close up, I Want Revenge looked better to me.

Further, I'd hardly call the Wood a group of allowance horses any more than you could say that about any of the prep fields. Bernie is a solid runner and every bit on par with the two you mention and before the Wood, Imperial Council was supposed to be all that as well. Given the trip and trouble, IWR waxed that group and proved that he could get in trouble and still have a kick when an opening happened. He's run well against more high end tallent than just about any other horse in the field. He may be the favorite, But I'm surprised if he is below 7/2 and that seems pretty fair to me.

[toussaud]

As someone who has seen both favs (plus Dunkirk if you want to add him in) live and close up, I Want Revenge looked better to me.

Further, I'd hardly call the Wood a group of allowance horses any more than you could say that about any of the prep fields. Bernie is a solid runner and every bit on par with the two you mention and before the Wood, Imperial Council was supposed to be all that as well. Given the trip and trouble, IWR waxed that group and proved that he could get in trouble and still have a kick when an opening happened. He's run well against more high end tallent than just about any other horse in the field. He may be the favorite, But I'm surprised if he is below 7/2 and that seems pretty fair to me.


there is not one horse in the wood that is capable of winning a graded stakes around 2 turns outside IWR

[Run Nicholas Run]

hope Mike B. doesnt make him the mlf.

[philofbelloni]

?

Well how do you explain the time of the race being a second faster than older horses in a grade 3 the race prior to the wood???

And spotting the field 5 lengths to boot...you can deduct another .6 or so second off his winning time...

You really confident in labeling him a "fraud"?

If IWR has any drawbacks it's that that race MIGHT have been his Kentucky Derby, because he had to work so hard to win.....

Other then that..... he's the real deal.

Well put. Couldn't agree more. He seems to have a penchant for dirt which I'm not sure POTN can match.

[slewis]

As someone who has seen both favs (plus Dunkirk if you want to add him in) live and close up, I Want Revenge looked better to me.

Further, I'd hardly call the Wood a group of allowance horses any more than you could say that about any of the prep fields. Bernie is a solid runner and every bit on par with the two you mention and before the Wood, Imperial Council was supposed to be all that as well. Given the trip and trouble, IWR waxed that group and proved that he could get in trouble and still have a kick when an opening happened. He's run well against more high end tallent than just about any other horse in the field. He may be the favorite, But I'm surprised if he is below 7/2 and that seems pretty fair to me.

Did you think he looked as sharp (pre-race) in the Wood as Gotham??

I thought he looked SENSATIONAL in the Gotham but not quite as good in the wood.

Unfortunetly, (unlike last yr where I got to CD on tues) I wont be going to Churchill until the day before the derby this year, and wont see any of these horses in the morning.... But I'lll get a good look at him in the paddock on May 2nd.

[JWBurnie]

am I the only one who thinks he's a fraud?

Toussaud, I'm with you. Bellamy Road comes to mind. IWR will be included on my tri's for the 2nd and 3rd spots, but not the win.

Let him break in the Derby, like he did Wood...

[SMOO]

hope Mike B. doesnt make him the mlf.

I hope you are right, but as my grandpappy used to say: "even a broken clock is right twice a day"

[nomadpat]

What running style will he have in the Derby? He had been close to the pace in prior races before the tardy break last out.

[toussaud]

I think he will be close but not on the lead. He does not have the late turn of foot to stay too far back in this calibur of race

[FlyinLate]

If IWR has any drawbacks it's that that race MIGHT have been his Kentucky Derby, because he had to work so hard to win.....


Considering IWR never saw the whip in the Wood, I doubt he worked that hard :lol:

He is the real deal. Only thing that detours me from this horse is the shenanigans behind Mullins on Wood Memorial day. Always worries me.

[Bettowin]

I think he will be close but not on the lead. He does not have the late turn of foot to stay too far back in this calibur of race

From my calculations he ran the fastest last quarter of all the contenders in his last race. Very versatile horse who also has a big chance.

[toussaud]

he was able to do because he wasn't asked for anything and was able to stay within reach of horses who again, wanted no part of the distance.

For him to win the kentucky derby he is going ot have to run to his perferences and to what he does best, which is staying around 3-4 off the leader and making a move and making the closers come and get him.

staying back and outkicking west side bernie, atomic rain and lord justice is different from staying 15 back of the derby, while the pace is going to be much faster and outkicking dunkirk, POTN and others.

[toussaud]

the first half was ran in 48 and 1. he was not asked to do anyting more than a paid jog around the track until they hit the stretch and by that time the field he beat was so pathically bad that no one in it could produce a late kick after running a 48 second half mile split. the mile split was 1:37 and 2. that's pitiful. and yes IWR did run the half furlong pretty fast, he's supposed to after you walk the first mile of the race.

if you look at the splits the wood was actually the most poorly ran 9 furlong prep race this year. the florida derby was the best followed by the santa anita derby, then the arknasas derby, than the illinois derby than the wood.

something else I don't like about IWR. it took him 4 tries to break his maiden. He never was an upper tier horse out in Cali then he ships to Aqueduct and now he's a world beater.
the horses he beat in the wood, West Side Bernie is a horse who could not come within shouting distance in the holy bull against saratoga sinner, and who came in 6th against hold me back the previous race, but now he's a legit derby horse?

it took Just a Coincidence 6 tries to break his maiden and then he's 3rd in a grade 1.

Atomic Rain had won 1 previous race in his life. .a 5 furlong sprint.

I"m sorry but IWR has all the makings of a paper champion and the more money he takes on derby day the better odds I will get on real legit horses

[Bettowin]

the first half was ran in 48 and 1. he was not asked to do anyting more than a paid jog around the track until they hit the stretch and by that time the field he beat was so pathically bad that no one in it could produce a late kick after running a 48 second half mile split. the mile split was 1:37 and 2. that's pitiful. and yes IWR did run the half furlong pretty fast, he's supposed to after you walk the first mile of the race.

if you look at the splits the wood was actually the most poorly ran 9 furlong prep race this year. the florida derby was the best followed by the santa anita derby, then the arknasas derby, than the illinois derby than the wood.

something else I don't like about IWR. it took him 4 tries to break his maiden. He never was an upper tier horse out in Cali then he ships to Aqueduct and now he's a world beater.
the horses he beat in the wood, West Side Bernie is a horse who could not come within shouting distance in the holy bull against saratoga sinner, and who came in 6th against hold me back the previous race, but now he's a legit derby horse?

it took Just a Coincidence 6 tries to break his maiden and then he's 3rd in a grade 1.

Atomic Rain had won 1 previous race in his life. .a 5 furlong sprint.

I"m sorry but IWR has all the makings of a paper champion and the more money he takes on derby day the better odds I will get on real legit horses


Many good points. I don't disagree with any of them but you can't fault a horse for winning or doing what he needed to do to win. If the race was one of the most poorly run 9 furlong preps why the high Beyers or Brisnet numbers?

[toussaud]

i'm not faulting him, i'm just not betting on him :p


i said it earlier, i'm leery of anything that comes out of aqueduct as far as beyers go. a 1:49 and 2 finish is not and never will be a 103 beyer in my book.

[Relwob Owner]

again, 5-10 lengths of trouble against what? if there was a decent route horse in that race he loses. I dont' think he beats Musket man or general quarters in that race and neither of them I would consider upper class 3YO's as far as the derby goes.


I am just not very impressed, even with the troubled trip by what he's beat. I expect a decent calibur horse to be able to toy with allowence horses


I think you could be correct but your "who has he beaten?" argument doesnt make any sense to me....with so many contenders running so many less races than contenders used to, it is almost impossible to say who has beaten who and use that as a basis for evaluating three year olds at this point....I dont really think you can say many of the contenders has beaten many others(other than Pioneer of the Nile on Poly) simply because most of the top ones havent faced each other yet......plus, a comparison of who has beaten who gets tricky because you end up seeing that General Quarters trounced ThereGoesJojo and would deduce that he is better than Dunkirk or QR?


FYI-Russell Road, who IWR trounced, came back and beat an OK group of 3 year olds at Charlestown Saturday in a 100K Stake Saturday in a very good time......

[Dahoss9698]

the first half was ran in 48 and 1. he was not asked to do anyting more than a paid jog around the track until they hit the stretch and by that time the field he beat was so pathically bad that no one in it could produce a late kick after running a 48 second half mile split. the mile split was 1:37 and 2. that's pitiful. and yes IWR did run the half furlong pretty fast, he's supposed to after you walk the first mile of the race.

if you look at the splits the wood was actually the most poorly ran 9 furlong prep race this year. the florida derby was the best followed by the santa anita derby, then the arknasas derby, than the illinois derby than the wood.

something else I don't like about IWR. it took him 4 tries to break his maiden. He never was an upper tier horse out in Cali then he ships to Aqueduct and now he's a world beater.
the horses he beat in the wood, West Side Bernie is a horse who could not come within shouting distance in the holy bull against saratoga sinner, and who came in 6th against hold me back the previous race, but now he's a legit derby horse?

it took Just a Coincidence 6 tries to break his maiden and then he's 3rd in a grade 1.

Atomic Rain had won 1 previous race in his life. .a 5 furlong sprint.

I"m sorry but IWR has all the makings of a paper champion and the more money he takes on derby day the better odds I will get on real legit horses

All of your points also have counterpoints, but it takes a little bit of thinking. First off, you are comparing splits at different tracks and on different surfaces. Not a good idea.

Never an upper tier horse in California? He was second a nose, to the top 3 year old in California after breaking his maiden. Then he was 2-1 against that same horse while beaten a length and a half. What tier was he?

The Gotham was weak and the Wood wasn't exactly strong either. But, West Side Bernie is okay in my opinion. He ran a very good race in the Holy Bull, making a wide move on a day inside speed was very good. I liked him out of that race. He never lifted a hoof at Turfway, to me it looked like he was never comfortable. I know he ran well at Turfway at 2, but as we have seen, the synthetic tracks do not play the same daily, yet alone months later. but he had every right to run well in the Wood and he did.

The 4 starts to break his maiden is just looking for faults. His first 3 races were sprints. As soon as he was stretched out, he has improved greatly. Out of all of the contenders, he appears to me to have the least amount of faults. He has shown he can run fast races on dirt. He has handled adversity and showed in the Wood he can run through a hole. He is versatile, being that he can be up on the lead and has shown the ability to pass horses also.

If he isn't a real legit horse, who is?

[DrugS]

If he isn't a real legit horse, who is?

Mine That Bird.

[toussaud]

All of your points also have counterpoints, but it takes a little bit of thinking. First off, you are comparing splits at different tracks and on different surfaces. Not a good idea.

Never an upper tier horse in California? He was second a nose, to the top 3 year old in California after breaking his maiden. Then he was 2-1 against that same horse while beaten a length and a half. What tier was he?

The Gotham was weak and the Wood wasn't exactly strong either. But, West Side Bernie is okay in my opinion. He ran a very good race in the Holy Bull, making a wide move on a day inside speed was very good. I liked him out of that race. He never lifted a hoof at Turfway, to me it looked like he was never comfortable. I know he ran well at Turfway at 2, but as we have seen, the synthetic tracks do not play the same daily, yet alone months later. but he had every right to run well in the Wood and he did.

The 4 starts to break his maiden is just looking for faults. His first 3 races were sprints. As soon as he was stretched out, he has improved greatly. Out of all of the contenders, he appears to me to have the least amount of faults. He has shown he can run fast races on dirt. He has handled adversity and showed in the Wood he can run through a hole. He is versatile, being that he can be up on the lead and has shown the ability to pass horses also.

If he isn't a real legit horse, who is?


look at that race. he got the lead and cantered around hte track and It's not like he drew off to win it.

I'm just not impressed whatsoever by this horse. it's nothing personal.

West Side Bernie is not a good horse, I'm sorry, he's not a derby horse and htey are going to hurt the poor horse trying to run him in the derby, the horse is colicing at churchill and they are still running him. that makes me sick to my stomach.

[Sabong]

I think the Derby has two very legit contenders and I'm glad I got IWR in the first future pool at 50-1 so now I can key Quality Road & bet him straight up in the Deby with no worries of IWR not keyed on top. I think the betting will have IWR the slight fav at 7-2, 4-1 over POTN & QR who will be very close in odds I think at like 5 or 6-1. Then Dunkirk & FF the next two choices at 8 or 10-1 then everyone else 20-1 or better. I really think the Dubai horses are going to run well esp RR & my big bombs for the tri & super will be MrHS & Summer Bird. I also think Choclate Candy is a must use in the tris & supers maybe even having him second as well.

[toussaud]

very good breakdown, and if I had IWR at 50 to 1 I'd probably start his fanclub lol

I am praying that POTN is the 2nd betting choice. I am hoping I can steal 6 to 1 on Quality Road.

I think both Musket Man and General Quarters go off at somewhere under 20 to 1 as well as choclate candy. everyone else extra long shots

[Stevie Belmont]

IWR won the Wood Strongly....He kicked clear of Bernie after the traffic issues...

If you look on paper...it's a length, but that does not tell the whole story.

Consider the circumstances



look at that race. he got the lead and cantered around hte track and It's not like he drew off to win it.

I'm just not impressed whatsoever by this horse. it's nothing personal.

West Side Bernie is not a good horse, I'm sorry, he's not a derby horse and htey are going to hurt the poor horse trying to run him in the derby, the horse is colicing at churchill and they are still running him. that makes me sick to my stomach.

[toussaud]

IWR won the Wood Strongly....He kicked clear of Bernie after the traffic issues...

If you look on paper...it's a length, but that does not tell the whole story.

Consider the circumstances

again, he did nothing more than what I expect a very nice horse to do against a group of horses who are utterly overmatched.

I'm not taking away from what He did. I am just saying in the grand scheme of things, what he did was not very breathtaking or groundbreaking. the fractions of the race were crap, besides a bad break it's not like overcame a death defying pace secnerio or anthing (he's actually been father back in previous races) and he passed a group of horses who whad thrown in the towel.

[FlyinLate]

I think the Derby has two very legit contenders and I'm glad I got IWR in the first future pool at 50-1 so now I can key Quality Road & bet him straight up in the Deby with no worries of IWR not keyed on top. I think the betting will have IWR the slight fav at 7-2, 4-1 over POTN & QR who will be very close in odds I think at like 5 or 6-1. Then Dunkirk & FF the next two choices at 8 or 10-1 then everyone else 20-1 or better. I really think the Dubai horses are going to run well esp RR & my big bombs for the tri & super will be MrHS & Summer Bird. I also think Choclate Candy is a must use in the tris & supers maybe even having him second as well.

Dunkirk will be the third choice. Too much hype surrounding this horse on a race where many bandwagon fans wager.

IMO you'll see
IWR 7-2
QR 4-1
Dunkirk 5-1

[toussaud]

Dunkirk will be the third choice. Too much hype surrounding this horse on a race where many bandwagon fans wager.

IMO you'll see
IWR 7-2
QR 4-1
Dunkirk 5-1

as much as dunkirk is hyped, nothing beats the west coast hype machine. there is no way (i can see) POTN goes off higher than dunkirk

[Dahoss9698]

look at that race. he got the lead and cantered around hte track and It's not like he drew off to win it.

I'm just not impressed whatsoever by this horse. it's nothing personal.

West Side Bernie is not a good horse, I'm sorry, he's not a derby horse and htey are going to hurt the poor horse trying to run him in the derby, the horse is colicing at churchill and they are still running him. that makes me sick to my stomach.

First of all, no one is taking anything personal. We're just discussing contenders. I gave you a few reasons why IWR is a contender. You're not impressed, which is fine. But who are you impressed by?

In regards to West Side Bernie, he's going to be a big price. I think on his best he can hit the board and will use him underneath in tris and supers. Where are you getting the colic information from? Link?

[toussaud]

I think Quality Road is the one to beat. I like Dunkirk but he reminds me of curlin in the sense that I just don't see him getting the trip he needs to win the race.

I like POTN somewhat and think papa clem is a dark horse.


http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20090421/SPORTS08/904210437/West+Side+Bernie+is+OK+after+colic+bout

link about colicing. was also on HRTV a couple of times too.

If you put a gun to my head and told me to pick a 20 to 1 shot horse I'd go with papa clem

[Dahoss9698]

According to the link the horse is doing great. If the trainer isn't concerned, I wouldn't be. And I think he's going to be a lot higher than 20-1. Probably double that.

[Marshall Bennett]

I really beleive this horse is far the best going into the Derby . I like Joe riding him too . If he gets a decent trip I think he wins . Only hope he doesn't lay too far back , that could be his undoing . Let the horse run .

[Sabong]

I can really see Dunkirk making a premature move & flattening late finishing like 8th. At least I hope so as I think I am going to leave him out of all exoctic bets. I could see this being kind of a merry go round race in where most horses pretty much run in the same spot all the way around in which case I very much dislike the closers & also like Papa Clem to maybe finish in the money. I'm really liking Regal Ranson for a longshot to maybe finish the exacta.

[Stevie Belmont]

Like or hate I Want Revenge. He will get the distance.

[toussaud]

I can really see Dunkirk making a premature move & flattening late finishing like 8th. At least I hope so as I think I am going to leave him out of all exoctic bets. I could see this being kind of a merry go round race in where most horses pretty much run in the same spot all the way around in which case I very much dislike the closers & also like Papa Clem to maybe finish in the money. I'm really liking Regal Ranson for a longshot to maybe finish the exacta.

that would be a mistake. Dunkirk has probably the most devistating late kick of any horse in this field

I agree Steve Belmont about IWR. that wont' be an issue

[Relwob Owner]

Dunkirk will be the third choice. Too much hype surrounding this horse on a race where many bandwagon fans wager.

IMO you'll see
IWR 7-2
QR 4-1
Dunkirk 5-1


Many bandwagon fans betting equals Baffert being overbet....people love him and associate him with winning the Derby......

[LemonSoupKid]

T,

Now you like POTN a bit? Did my arguments rub off a bit?

And btw, right now, what is your line for Papa Clem and Pioneer? That's really all that matters. The others?

[FlyinLate]

Many bandwagon fans betting equals Baffert being overbet....people love him and associate him with winning the Derby......

I'd be happy to make a small fun wager with anyone regarding who will go off as favorite.

Lucky's in Vegas had match-ups this morning. Here was one.

2401 Quality Road +100 (+110)
2402 Dunkirk -130 (-140)

If Dunkirk is taking this much early money, he is bound to go off third choice. Shit he's favored in this match-up over possible derby favorite QR. I'm sure money will soon even these out, but these were verified this morning. He will be a smaller price than POTN. ESPN practically made the FL Derby solely about Dunkirk. ESPN is the only source of info for many of the players who ONLY bet derby day.

[Relwob Owner]

that would be a mistake. Dunkirk has probably the most devistating late kick of any horse in this field

I agree Steve Belmont about IWR. that wont' be an issue



You say Dunkirk has the most devestating late kick of any horse in this field....what do you base this on? As most people are doing with him, you are basing your strong assertions on potential, not what has happened on the track because this 'devestating late kick" has yet to show itself.......

[onefast99]

I think Quality Road is the one to beat. I like Dunkirk but he reminds me of curlin in the sense that I just don't see him getting the trip he needs to win the race.

I like POTN somewhat and think papa clem is a dark horse.


http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20090421/SPORTS08/904210437/West+Side+Bernie+is+OK+after+colic+bout

link about colicing. was also on HRTV a couple of times too.

If you put a gun to my head and told me to pick a 20 to 1 shot horse I'd go with papa clem
WS Bernie was out of training for over a week, now they bring him back quickly, sometimes its not about the horse its about the connections. This is Breens one time shot and a little bout of colic won't keep him away.

[toussaud]

WS Bernie was out of training for over a week, now they bring him back quickly, sometimes its not about the horse its about the connections. This is Breens one time shot and a little bout of colic won't keep him away.
that's exactly what I was thinking.

[toussaud]

Look at the gotham.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfltA5R9gYA

first of all, note, outside of I want revenge, there is one horse in this field that wants any part of more than 1 turn and that's imperial council who had no chance becuase he's not THAT good of a late closer and there was no pace.


Lets break down his splits. they run the first half mile in 48.45 which is not fast.

the 5-6th furlongs are ran in 24.24 and the 7th and 8th furlongs are ran in 23.69. the final half a furlong is ran in 6.19.

There is nothing really awing about this race that earned him a 113 beyer. One thing that dOES seperate him from the pack and makes him a horse I would put on exotics is that he does deiminstrate the ability to run faster as the race goes on. the downside of that however, is that he has not showed the abillity to run fast late and run fast early in the same race, which I will prove again in the wood memorial. but remember, Pioneerof the nile slowed down even after going slower than this. and the derby will be much faster than this race I promise you. so while I believe IWR is better than POTN, I don't think either are playable. The visual you get from this race, are slow horses going even slower then IWR is going, not from IWR really accelrating, although I would not say he was slow in the end of the race, he just wasn't very fast either. he maintains a pretty steady pace the entire race actually.

The wood memorialhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUUdR0fXCNo

the beginning of the race was ran in 48.13 for the first half mile.. pretty identical to the first race, execpt that in this race IWR is OFF the pace .WAY off of it. the 2 furlongs are ran in 24.19..a gain, remember he's not on the lead. and this is pretty normal and no one has kicked home yet.
the next 2 furlongs are ran in 25.01 and the final furlong is ran in 11.86.

Again, IWR does seperate himself from the majority of the horses in the sense that he can run FAST late but to run this fast late, look what had to happen, he had to run tHAT slow early. and considering they ran 25.01 the before the last furlong, it wasn't THAT fast. It was faster than the majority of the horses in this race are capable of however.

His coup de grace is that he is going to get in the derby, and is going to be asked to run faster than 25 48 1:12 splits. Derbies are much faster than that. Try 23, 45 or 46, 1:09 and 1:10 THEN be asked to produce a late kick. he is going to use himself up early, not use himself early but his late kick is going to be negated somewhat because of his not being able to go that slow. IN other words, he accelarates becuase he is not asked to run and he's able to do while running 24 and 48 splits. on the other hand, quality road was able to finish the florida derby in 37.02 which is faster than IWR did (37.12) WHILE RUNNING 3 SECONDS FASTER AT THE BEGIINNING OF THE RACE. in other words, quality road can run fast early and fast late. To be a late closer you and run fast late you have to be able to have a devistating late kick, something this horse doesn't have.

I'll play him in my exotics, but not on top.

[Sabong]

I dont think so but I would not be shocked to see Dunkirk going off 3rd choice but I would be very suprised to see him lower odds than IWR & or QR but Siegal has him number 1 on his Derby list for petes sake so who knows. I too dont get how his kick is so devastating? Yeah he has a good move & is talented but he & his move is way overhyped IMO. He was a very tired horse after the FL Derby & probley will be after the KY Derby. I dont think he is a Pyro but from what I've seen so far I'm not so sure he is a 1 & 1/4 horse from what I've seen he may be best at 7/8th to a mile & 1/16.

[toussaud]

I dont think so but I would not be shocked to see Dunkirk going off 3rd choice but I would be very suprised to see him lower odds than IWR & or QR but Siegal has him number 1 on his Derby list for petes sake so who knows. I too dont get how his kick is so devastating? Yeah he has a good move & is talented but he & his move is way overhyped IMO. He was a very tired horse after the FL Derby & probley will be after the KY Derby. I dont think he is a Pyro but from what I've seen so far I'm not so sure he is a 1 & 1/4 horse from what I've seen he may be best at 7/8th to a mile & 1/16.


I'm assuming you are talking about dunkirk.

I'll give you this, his allowence race does not flatter whatsoever as far as late kick goes. 13 seconds the last furlong was ran in and had to be beat to death to get that out of him.

however, in the florida derby he sold me as far as having the most accelation power of any horse in this race. In between the 6th furlong and the mile mark he had to run that 2 furlong mark in sub 24 seconds, probably closer to 23 seconds and still was able to run the final furlong in about 12 seconds. that sweeping move he made wins 95% of all grade 1 races he will ever be in.

the florida derby has a pretty typical pace senerio. those splits are about the way derbies are ran and dunkrik looked like a horse possesed coming around that turn.

I dont' think he will win.. one I dont' think he can beat quality road, and also I think he will have to go wide. but I be shocked if he doesn't hit the board in fact I will probalby have him 2nd.

[glengarry]

After IWR broke his maiden, Mullins stated that this was the best horse he ever had. IWR then proceeds to give Pioneer all he can handle. Say what you want about him, but Mullins is a sharp horseman. Before shipping east, he stated that the horse would improve big time switching to dirt. He was right again. Mullins word is good enough for me. The horse belongs and I'm sure he wouldn't trade places with anybody.

For all the talk about the Derby being a crapshoot because of trip issues, etc., it almost always is won by a horse of immense talent compared to the other three year olds. QR and IWR and FF are the only horses in the field that have shown the immense talent (on dirt) required, and have top notch horsemen calling the shots. I could not argue with going with any of the three.

[Dahoss9698]

Is it a good idea to compare times at different tracks and different days?

[toussaud]

Is it a good idea to compare times at different tracks and different days?


I'm not comparing anything to anyone. I'm disecting I want revenge. and in both races, in fact in all his races, he's shown the same tenendies.

[Dahoss9698]

I'm not comparing anything to anyone. I'm disecting I want revenge. and in both races, in fact in all his races, he's shown the same tenendies.

You compared IWR and QR using times of their races.

[toussaud]

You compared IWR and QR using times of their races.


1 sentence out of a 3 paragraph post I made, that uses him as a reference, beucase that is about the speed the derby is going to be ran it.

My entire post had to do not with quality road, but the inaiblity of IWR in all his lifetime starts, to not be able to run fast early and fast alste in the same race. He can run fast late, but only by running slow early.

and this is something that has been going on since the cashcall mile, not just at aqu.

in the cashcall mile, the pace was hotter than his races at aqueduct and he was about 7 or 8 lengths off of the pace, and while he made a move, it wasn't good enough to win the race becuase he was not able to canter around the track in 25 / 48 second splits.



HOnestly, I have more respect for IWR after looking at his numbers becuase it's better than all but maybe 1 or 2 horses depending on what you think of dunkirk and I can somewhat see what people like about him, but i sitll dont' think he wins.

[Dahoss9698]

Aside from Quality Road who has shown the ability to run fast early and late? Do closers not win races anymore? IWR isn't fast early. But he can be close if need be. My point about the times is unless you are going to look at the way each track was playing, it's kind of pointless to compare times. The Florida Derby was run on a day that produced very fast times and at least a few track records. The fractions are going to be fast. The track was slow Wood Memorial Day.

I also don't think there will be that much speed in the race. Unless we get a new entrant or two in the next few days where is all the speed coming from?

[toussaud]

It's not that you have to run fast early and late. it's that IWR's "late kick", even when he is running slow early, isn't by any means devistating, it's just visually enhanced becuase he is running agsinst horses that are decelerating.

when street sense won the kentucky derby, he was next to last in the back stretch, but he was able to close the last half mile in sub 46 seconds. he could FLY late when not used early.

IWR even when he is not running fast early, doesn't have a devistating turn of foot. The fractions hard spun set were 22 and change, 46 and change,w hcih actually put Street Sense about what IWR is at even in the lead int heg othm,a bout 48 and change, and he still is able to turn it up like he did.

You dn't have to be able to fly early and fly late but if you can't fly early you REALLY need to be ablet cook late, and IWR has never in his life shown the abilty to have THAT type of turn of foot. The only horse that has evern shown that turn of foot outside of QR is dunkirk. Actually there is antoher horse that has shown that type of t urn of foot but I think it was more of a fluke than antyhing else. (Advice). the way he closed that race you have to take notice, even if it is a fluke.


the more races I watch, the more this is really a 2, maybe 3 horse race. I can see IWR winning it, espically if QR's foot is acting up, but i'm not betting on it

[toussaud]

as far as the speed, that also points towards quality road. but no speed is revelant. you won't see a derby run in 24/48 splits. no speed in the derby is going to be closer to 23/46 splits whcih is still faster than what most of these horses see in a regular race.

[Bluesthestandard]

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2009/2009_classic_contender_pfs.htm (Linky)

[Dahoss9698]

IWR showed in the Gotham he can finish up quickly. I'm not concerned at all with his ability to finish.

[LemonSoupKid]

Bluestehstandard,

The PFs disagree too much with the Beyers to get an analysis from Toussaud, (s)he won't touch them. Don't even think about bringing up pace parameters, haha

[toussaud]

Bluestehstandard,

The PFs disagree too much with the Beyers to get an analysis from Toussaud, (s)he won't touch them. Don't even think about bringing up pace parameters, haha


the what?

I dont' even use beyers. I don't use speed figures at all. I MENTION the beyers becuase they are a unversial form that everyone is familar with.I can't come to a forum and say "hey did you see that Rag that IWR got", most people don't even know the final time of IWR's last race (1:49:91) yet everyone knows he got a 103 beyer.

[toussaud]

my gripe with IWR is not that he can't close. again reread what I posted. It's that he has never been able to close without being given charmon soft fractions for the first half of races. in all the races where he has to exert himself any in the beginning of the race, he loses.

[Dahoss9698]

my gripe with IWR is not that he can't close. again reread what I posted. It's that he has never been able to close without being given charmon soft fractions for the first half of races. in all the races where he has to exert himself any in the beginning of the race, he loses.

He's not a frontrunner. How much does he exert himself early? He's pretty rateable it seems (see Gotham and Wood Memorial) and can close (see race he lost a nose to POTN). I see him sitting midpack, and making his run. Will it be good enough, we'll see. but I maintain out of all of the horses who are considered strong contenders, he has the least flaws and question marks. In fact I have yet to see a legit fault.

[LemonSoupKid]

My point is that you mention Beyers and times, yet Beyers are based on times, and amusingly this time both IWR and Quality Road's times were changed/manipulated in the subjective manner. Why? There were track records going up at Gulfstream and these two are top runners in the same class, so there was a need to compare them.

I don't mind going with times but the point is that tracks play differently, which can mean all the difference in the world for a horse in the last 1/4.

Plus, horses maturing can really throw a loop in there, especially when they are horses who know what winning is all about.

[toussaud]

My point is that you mention Beyers and times, yet Beyers are based on times, and amusingly this time both IWR and Quality Road's times were changed/manipulated in the subjective manner. Why? There were track records going up at Gulfstream and these two are top runners in the same class, so there was a need to compare them.

I don't mind going with times but the point is that tracks play differently, which can mean all the difference in the world for a horse in the last 1/4.

Plus, horses maturing can really throw a loop in there, especially when they are horses who know what winning is all about.


as i stated, I don't use beyers or any figures whatsoever, I 'm a visual guy. I watch races. however, when referencing something, it's the only thing that can be unversially referenced.

And Iyou don't understand what I'm doing if you think I'm TIMING IWR. I"m looknig at nother but accelration and deceleration. I could care less about the final time.

[philcski]

He's not a frontrunner. How much does he exert himself early? He's pretty rateable it seems (see Gotham and Wood Memorial) and can close (see race he lost a nose to POTN). I see him sitting midpack, and making his run. Will it be good enough, we'll see. but I maintain out of all of the horses who are considered strong contenders, he has the least flaws and question marks. In fact I have yet to see a legit fault.

I have- it's called "Air Power".

Let's see how Mullins runs out of a REAL detention barn.

[silverbull271]

RAT

[Dahoss9698]

RAT

Care to expound on this? What don't you like about him?

[Bettowin]

Care to expound on this? What don't you like about him?


IWR looks good to me so far. I am waiting for Toussad to tell us who he likes for sure. Is it Papa Clem?

[46zilzal]

I have done a lot of reading into psychological aspects of decision making. In a very good book called SMART CHOICES, the authors warn against depending too heavily on an experience made in the heat of an emotional time: for many of us that would be during what APPEARS to be an amazing race, i.e this year's Wood or Pyro's Louisiana Derby. The Pace was slower than most grade ones so that the winner did not need to put out a lot of energy to keep up and had a lot in the tank late.

AT this point in the Derby analysis, I Want Revenge (and this is subject to the match up that first Saturday in May) will be, like many others before him (Silky, Sweetnorthernsaint, Pyuro, Colonel John, Monba and even Afleet Alex) just too far back off the usually quick pace projected.

This is subject to the contents of styles in the field, but his LOW %medians suggest his being TOO far out of it to get to the line first, at this stage of the evaluation.

IF and this is a very BIG if, IF Quality Road does not do an Unbridled Song and fall apart, he is long gone pace wise to types with styles like he has shown.

[Dahoss9698]

Giacomo, Grindstone, Fusaichi Pegasus are recent examples of horses who came off the pace and won. Monba? How was he going to be a factor?

[46zilzal]

Giacomo, Grindstone, Fusaichi Pegasus are recent examples of horses who came off the pace and won. Monba? How was he going to be a factor?
NOT as far off the pace as Sweetnorthernsaint, Pyro, Colonel John, and several others projected including Afleet Alex and Eight Belles although she was really on the improve

[Dahoss9698]

NOT as far off the pace as Sweetnorthernsaint, Pyro, Colonel John, and several others projected including Afleet Alex and Eight Belles although she was really on the improve

Giacomo and Grindstone didn't figure to be that far off the pace? What PP's do you use? And Sweetnorthensaint did NOT figure to be far off the pace.

[46zilzal]

Giacomo and Grindstone didn't figure to be that far off the pace? What PP's do you use? And Sweetnorthensaint did NOT figure to be far off the pace.
When energy distributions of % median are in the 66% range YES they are FAR off. Giacomo was 67.4, MUCH CLOSER as MOST of the winners have been.

[Dahoss9698]

When energy distributions of % median are in the 66% range YES they are FAR off. Giacomo was 67.4, MUCH CLOSER as MOST of the winners have been.

yeah, Giacomo came from 18th to win that Derby. real close to the pace. :rolleyes:

[46zilzal]

yeah, Giacomo came from 18th to win that Derby. real close to the pace.
POSITION is NOT energy distribution. I don't know how many times one has to repeat what seems not to sink in.

Energy distribution is NOT associated with POSITION. but is relative to the pace...RELATIVITY and then that doesn't factor in all of the NOISE (contenders who have NO chance cluttering up the front whre cheapies invariably go in the Derby).

His last two preps were right on target for his race at 67.7 % median.

[Dahoss9698]

POSITION is NOT energy distribution. I don't know how many times one has to repeat what seems not to sink in.

Energy distribution is NOT associated with POSITION. but is relative to the pace...RELATIVITY and then that doesn't factor in all of the NOISE (contenders who have NO chance cluttering up the front whre cheapies invariably go in the Derby).

His last two preps were right on target for his race at 67.7 % median.

Here is what you said



AT this point in the Derby analysis, I Want Revenge (and this is subject to the match up that first Saturday in May) will be, like many others before him (Silky, Sweetnorthernsaint, Pyuro, Colonel John, Monba and even Afleet Alex) just too far back off the usually quick pace projected.



So, I offered up examples of horses that were "too far back off the usually quick pace projected" and won. Your examples were flawed. That is the issue here. Monba had no shot, Sweetnorthensaint was close to the pace, Pyro couldn't get 10 furlongs on a flatbed, Colonel John wasn't good enough. I'm not talking about energy distibution as it's not something I follow.

[46zilzal]

QUOTE:I'm not talking about energy distribution as it's not something I follow.

If you do not understand how this is used then this difference in analysis is MOOT.

[Dahoss9698]

I didn't say I don't understand it, I don't use it.

Let's keep it simple, shall we. Did Monarchos, Grindstone, Giacomo, Street Sense all win the Derby from well off the pace? And, after you talk around that question, where is all of the pace coming from this year?

[Bruddah]

[QUOTE=toussaud]1 sentence out of a 3 paragraph post I made, that uses him as a reference, beucase that is about the speed the derby is going to be ran it.

My entire post had to do not with quality road, but the inaiblity of IWR in all his lifetime starts, to not be able to run fast early and fast alste in the same race. He can run fast late, but only by running slow early.

and this is something that has been going on since the cashcall mile, not just at aqu.
in the cashcall mile, the pace was hotter than his races at aqueduct and he was about 7 or 8 lengths off of the pace, and while he made a move, it wasn't good enough to win the race becuase he was not able to canter around the track in 25 / 48 second splits.

I agree and this is why he was sent to the west Coast to try artificial surfaces. He is a dirt horse, who runs like a Polycrap horse, which needs to run slow early. Too many horses will be in front of him in the Derby. Add the fact his male line is thru Secretariat, whose sire line record for Ky Derby starters from 1980 to present is 31 starters, 1 win, 1plc, 2 shw, 4 fourth, 1 fifth. He won't get any win money from me.

[Marshall Bennett]

Care to expound on this? What don't you like about him?
He's on a random rant , spewing bs thoughout the board . Would imagine PA will catch wind of this soon .

[46zilzal]

The I Ching, more than any other philosophy has ti right: Don't be too happy about good times or too sad about the bad FOR IT WILL CHANGE. In the real world change has to be embraced not shunned.

As more of the preps are on syntho-surfaces, more colts will come into the Derby with LATE LATE styles promoted by that surface, not the colt. It will take awhile but eventually ONE will break through. Don't know if it will be this year as yet.

[Indulto]

The I Ching, more than any other philosophy has ti right: Don't be too happy about good times or too sad about the bad FOR IT WILL CHANGE. In the real world change has to be embraced not shunned.

As more of the preps are on syntho-surfaces, more colts will come into the Derby with LATE LATE styles promoted by that surface, not the colt. It will take awhile but eventually ONE will break through. Don't know if it will be this year as yet.Hey, 46. You've been missed.

Welcome back. I'm currently waiting to hear the CHRB webcast or I might not have noticed. :D

[Relwob Owner]

am I the only one who thinks he's a fraud?


As time goes on, IWR's races are looking better and better....two horses he beat in NY(Mr. Fantasy and Russell Road) have now come back to win stakes races....not huge caliber fields but stakes nonetheless.....I am not a IWR fan but I am starting to get worried he may win....

[luvarace]

My money is going on I Want Revenge to win.

Many seem to disagree but oh well. I really like this horse.

My personal opinion of course.

I am looking for Regal Ransom, Papa Clem, Pioneer of the Nile, Desert Party

in that order.

Sorry I am not a fan of Dunkirk! :bang: I know evil me but it is my opinion.

[joanied]

As time goes on, IWR's races are looking better and better....two horses he beat in NY(Mr. Fantasy and Russell Road) have now come back to win stakes races....not huge caliber fields but stakes nonetheless.....I am not a IWR fan but I am starting to get worried he may win....

Relwob....geeze, me too...watched him on HRTV this morning...he sure looks good...

[andymays]

Will you guys be able to get over the "Mullins thing" and root for the Colt?

Just curious!

[joanied]

Will you guys be able to get over the "Mullins thing" and root for the Colt?

Just curious!

I'm trying:)

I got over my dislike of Talamo...I do think he's a good kid...but I still think he's also a bit reckless)...
but, unless I change my mind, I'll stay with my original top 2, Pioneer & FF and now I am also liking Hold Me Back to hit the board.
:jump:

[andymays]

Whoever you root for Good Luck!

[DRIVEWAY]

QUOTE:I'm not talking about energy distribution as it's not something I follow.

If you do not understand how this is used then this difference in analysis is MOOT.

If you have the data, just curious as to the energy distribution of War Emblem and Bellamy Road.

Thanks

[46zilzal]

If you have the data, just curious as to the energy distribution of War Emblem and Bellamy Road.

Thanks
War Emblem: improving and his last prep convinced that he had the adaptability to go 10 furlongs

second Bellamy aided by the biased track in New York was too high

[Relwob Owner]

Will you guys be able to get over the "Mullins thing" and root for the Colt?

Just curious!


AM,

Funny you mentioned that...this morning, I was looking at him and wondered whether Mullins plus IEAH is making me root against him and I think the answer is yes....I think if there were other connections, i would love the horse....oh well, I am sticking with POTN and Fresian Fire...

[tribecaagent]

AM,

Funny you mentioned that...this morning, I was looking at him and wondered whether Mullins plus IEAH is making me root against him and I think the answer is yes....I think if there were other connections, i would love the horse....oh well, I am sticking with POTN and Fresian Fire...

Relwob,

What's your take on FF's work? I'm undecided.

[andymays]

AM,

Funny you mentioned that...this morning, I was looking at him and wondered whether Mullins plus IEAH is making me root against him and I think the answer is yes....I think if there were other connections, i would love the horse....oh well, I am sticking with POTN and Fresian Fire...


I really don't blame anyone for disliking the connections. I happen to know a few people that know Mullins and my good friend has a box behind his at Del Mar where I've sat during the meet. I've said it before but I can tell you the guy is a great trainer and a good guy. Maybe a "knucklehead" at times but if you read the article the other day in the form I think it paints a picture of an imperfect man with a lot of talent to train horses!

[Relwob Owner]

Relwob,

What's your take on FF's work? I'm undecided.

I think it was fine....honestly, I am not the greatest at evaluating works and how they look and come back and usually lean on others who have generally liked it....biggest thing to me is that FF has the rep of being a bit of a handful and that has concerned me-seems like he was fine in the work, though?? one thing I would also lean on others is his jock. I know of Saez but havent read much about what people think....any thoughts?????

[Relwob Owner]

I really don't blame anyone for disliking the connections. I happen to know a few people that know Mullins and my good friend has a box behind his at Del Mar where I've sat during the meet. I've said it before but I can tell you the guy is a great trainer and a good guy. Maybe a "knucklehead" at times but if you read the article the other day in the form I think it paints a picture of an imperfect man with a lot of talent to train horses!


I hear ya....one thing I have learned in life is that some of my best friends are people who I didnt care for until I got to know them so who knows???? :)

[Relwob Owner]

Relwob,

What's your take on FF's work? I'm undecided.


One thing i wanted to ask you, though....would you be worried if the work was with a different trainer or do you have confidence in Jones?

[tribecaagent]

I think it was fine....honestly, I am not the greatest at evaluating works and how they look and come back and usually lean on others who have generally liked it....biggest thing to me is that FF has the rep of being a bit of a handful and that has concerned me-seems like he was fine in the work, though?? one thing I would also lean on others is his jock. I know of Saez but havent read much about what people think....any thoughts?????

I like Saez a whole bunch and we know he can rise to the occasion. He gave the filly a perfect ride in last years oaks. As far as Jones, I can't think of anyone else I'd rather have (alive that is). Maybe I'm knittpicking, but that come home time is uninspiring. Although, he ran the first 3 eighths in 33 & 2 so I guess he had a right to get tired. You are right though, if I believe in Jones, it really doesn't matter.

[Relwob Owner]

I like Saez a whole bunch and we know he can rise to the occasion. He gave the filly a perfect ride in last years oaks. As far as Jones, I can't think of anyone else I'd rather have (alive that is). Maybe I'm knittpicking, but that come home time is uninspiring. Although, he ran the first 3 eighths in 33 & 2 so I guess he had a right to get tired. You are right though, if I believe in Jones, it really doesn't matter.


Thanks for the info....I really like the horse and I like how Jones has handled him and improved him....good info on the jock, too. I am definitely a Beyer believer and I love his pattern there, too. My two concerns are his post position and the fact that with QR out, he could be 5 or 6 to one, not the 8 or 9 I was hoping for....

[joanied]

Whoever you root for Good Luck!

Thanks...I assume you'll be rooting for IWR...so good luck to you also, andymays:)
Actually...good luck to all the colts...may the best horse win, and may they all come back safe and sound:ThmbUp:
Pioneer:jump:
Freisan Fire:jump:

Ooohhhh...OK...IWR a little:jump: :)

[joanied]

AM,

Funny you mentioned that...this morning, I was looking at him and wondered whether Mullins plus IEAH is making me root against him and I think the answer is yes....I think if there were other connections, i would love the horse....oh well, I am sticking with POTN and Fresian Fire...

Me too, Relwob...just can't help myself;)

[joanied]

I hear ya....one thing I have learned in life is that some of my best friends are people who I didnt care for until I got to know them so who knows???? :)

That is very :ThmbUp: true, indeed... but, hell, even if Mullins really is a very nice man and a good trainer...my heart still belongs to Jones & Baffert:kiss: :)

[Market Mover]

Pyro's LA Derby win = IWR's Wood Memorial....examples of decelerating foes visually enhancing a Derby candidate's final prep performance...(Did anyone think Pyro would run faster than a 2:03 Travers that year?...or did his foes simply not lay down the last eighth..)

And Jeff Mullins winning a KY Derby after the Air Power fiasco? Are we for real here? (Even Ernie Paragallo knows the rules...don't squirt stuff into horses' nostrils in paddock before race...)

Come on..surely you're not content with 3-1 for all this?

IWR goes down. LIke another Pyro. It's that simple. Perhaps he hits the board when this hot pace (um, insert any speed horse here...oh wait, THERE ARE NONE! ..hello Darley) supposedly starts to back up in deep stretch...

[andymays]

Pyro's LA Derby win = IWR's Wood Memorial....examples of decelerating foes visually enhancing a Derby candidate's final prep performance...(Did anyone think Pyro would run faster than a 2:03 Travers that year?...or did his foes simply not lay down the last eighth..)

And Jeff Mullins winning a KY Derby after the Air Power fiasco? Are we for real here? (Even Ernie Paragallo knows the rules...don't squirt stuff into horses' nostrils in paddock before race...)

Come on..surely you're not content with 3-1 for all this?

IWR goes down. LIke another Pyro. It's that simple. Perhaps he hits the board when this hot pace (um, insert any speed horse here...oh wait, THERE ARE NONE! ..hello Darley) supposedly starts to back up in deep stretch...


The "bad karma angle" is usually valid except for one thing. It seems that Mullins may have some "counter measure" because all the bad things seem to be happening to other connections.

[rokitman]

am I the only one who thinks he's a fraud?
Looks like the Pyro of 2009 to me. And I think Talamo will make Bridgemohan look like a genius.

[Market Mover]

Consider the mauvais history of Gotham/Wood winners...NOt since Native Diver finishing second to Dark Star in the Derby have these NY dual prep winners come close.....and IWR is no Native Diver or Easy Goer....next....

The play in this Derby is to build superfecta tickets against IWR...everybody and their mother will have him on the multiple tickets...