The Derby

[matthewsiv]

Is this the most open Derby in recent years?

Who are your 3 major contenders?

[onefast99]

Is this the most open Derby in recent years?

Who are your 3 major contenders?
Or pretenders?

[theveep]

Contenders:
Pioneer of Nile
I Want Revenge
Desert Party

Pretender:
Dunkirk

Darkhorse:
Musket Man

My exacta winner:
Nile and MM

Lou

[toussaud]

Contnders:

Quality Road












POTN



Pretneders:

Friesen Fire (somewhat of a pretender)
IWR
Dunkirk



Dark Horse:

Papa Clem

[Smarty Cide]

Pioneerof The Nile
I Want Revenge
Desert Party


Sleeper
Musketman - all he does is win

[fmolf]

pioneer of the nile
musket man
friesan fire





dark horse:
regal ransom......every one is focused on suroor's other horse ...if this one runs look out

[Saratoga_Mike]

pioneer of the nile
musket man
friesan fire





dark horse:
regal ransom......every one is focused on suroor's other horse ...if this one runs look out

Before any POTN backers place a bet on him in the Derby, put your money in a pile and burn it.

[Relwob Owner]

Before any POTN backers place a bet on him in the Derby, put your money in a pile and burn it.\


Man, Mike.. not a POTN fan?? :) I actually am but am starting to get worried because there seems to be a bandwagon developing since Gomez got on today....who do you like so I can check em out?

[andymays]

I have a future exacta box from Revenge to Dunkirk but experience tells me that since everyone seems to be knocking POTN I should box him in the Derby!

[Saratoga_Mike]

\


Man, Mike.. not a POTN fan?? :) I actually am but am starting to get worried because there seems to be a bandwagon developing since Gomez got on today....who do you like so I can check em out?

First, I don't think I've had a Derby winner since Winning Colors in 1988!

That said, I wouldn't bet POTN with counterfeit money for the following reasons: (1) his Beyers are uninspiring, (2) he's totally unproven on dirt, (3) I've claimed $10k horses at CT with better pace figures.

Is POTN really going to take play? I think he should be 10-1 to 15-1. I do like Baffert as a trainer, though.

Who do I like? Friesan Fire and IWR, but I'll probably play some numbers as I have no confidence in my Derby picks (I am confident in pitching POTN, though, but that leaves me with 19 other horses!).

[Canadian]

I don't know much about the thoroughbreds, but I think I'm going to put a 100 dollar win on a horse so I've been watching alot of replays and following what the "experts" have been saying on here.

Does anyone like Square Eddy? He made one hell of a move before getting caught. He could be expected to be a bit short.

I'm leading between him or Dunkirk, but since I have no clue what I'm really talking about I'll be taking advice up until post time.

[sandpit]

I don't know much about the thoroughbreds, but I think I'm going to put a 100 dollar win on a horse so I've been watching alot of replays and following what the "experts" have been saying on here.

Does anyone like Square Eddy? He made one hell of a move before getting caught. He could be expected to be a bit short.

I'm leading between him or Dunkirk, but since I have no clue what I'm really talking about I'll be taking advice up until post time.

fwiw, I think Square Eddie is plenty talented but he has hardly had a conventional winter/spring that would put him in position to be a prime contender. Also, traffic in a 20 horse field could be a big problem for him.

I am on the anti-Dunkirk bandwagon. Similar to Curlin a couple of years ago, but not as far along in his development. So, I guess he could hit the board, but to me a win is highly unlikely.

Both the Godolphin horses make a striking appearance training, as does Chocolate Candy. It is always good to see how horses are acclimated to Churchill, and this doesn't necessarily mean fast workout times, just how they handle the surrounding. this thought process applies to horses that have never been there before, not horses like General Quarters, who was there last year.

This is a great year to take a stand; plenty of talented horses and you'll likely get a better price than you should on 75% of the field.

[toussaud]

fwiw, I think Square Eddie is plenty talented but he has hardly had a conventional winter/spring that would put him in position to be a prime contender. Also, traffic in a 20 horse field could be a big problem for him.

I am on the anti-Dunkirk bandwagon. Similar to Curlin a couple of years ago, but not as far along in his development. So, I guess he could hit the board, but to me a win is highly unlikely.

Both the Godolphin horses make a striking appearance training, as does Chocolate Candy. It is always good to see how horses are acclimated to Churchill, and this doesn't necessarily mean fast workout times, just how they handle the surrounding. this thought process applies to horses that have never been there before, not horses like General Quarters, who was there last year.

This is a great year to take a stand; plenty of talented horses and you'll likely get a better price than you should on 75% of the field.

i was going to make a post about it but you alluded to it here so I will go on.

on paper, dunkirk is actually heads and sholders better than curlin was going into the derby, although on the track I think curlin would tear dunkirk apart.

curlin didnt' run anything close to a 108 beyer until his JCGC when he ran a 114 which was 5 months after the derby. Dunkirk ran one in his 3rd race which was in april

[Relwob Owner]

First, I don't think I've had a Derby winner since Winning Colors in 1988!

That said, I wouldn't bet POTN with counterfeit money for the following reasons: (1) his Beyers are uninspiring, (2) he's totally unproven on dirt, (3) I've claimed $10k horses at CT with better pace figures.

Is POTN really going to take play? I think he should be 10-1 to 15-1. I do like Baffert as a trainer, though.

Who do I like? Friesan Fire and IWR, but I'll probably play some numbers as I have no confidence in my Derby picks (I am confident in pitching POTN, though, but that leaves me with 19 other horses!).

I had Monarchos, Charismatic and Funny Cide in a five year stretch and thought I was a "Derby Expert"....well, havent had a sniff since! being a big Beyer man, POTN does concern me in that sense....beating Papa Clem and IWR gives me hope and I just kind of have a hunch, i guess....however, just took a long look and I think that if Friesan Fire is 8 to one or better, he could be the play-whatever the case, hopefully one of us can end our droughts:)

[toussaud]

I REALLY started following racing in 03. I had Peace Rules that year.

I had smarty Jones in 04

Afleet Alex in 05

stepenwolder in 06 (what was I drinking)

curlin in 07

big brown last year

quality road this year

[Watcher]

Contenders:

Quality Road (assuming all is OK with quarter crack)
Friesan Fire
Dunkirk (if QR is a contender, this guy has to be)

Pretenders:

Desert Party
Win Willy

Dark Horse:

Papa Clem