AQ Sunday P6

[Cholly]

Sunday’s double carryover P6 paid $386K to a single owner. Maybe it’s not so surprising that a sequence that included winning rides by Morales, Berrios, Rodriguez, and Jose Espinoza went pretty large. But it was shocking that going in there were only two live horses (both for the whole tamale), and one of those was the 13-1 winner Sonic Sound.

It’s not that the horse was illogical, but she was certainly an unlikely candidate to single or use if you were only going two-deep in a very contentious race. My first thought was that maybe Charlton Baker, who owns and trains Sonic Sound, had it. And while he looked very pleased to be in the winner’s circle, he didn’t have a smile that would go with having just drug down almost $400-large.

One other possibility is a mis-punched ticket. Sonic Sound was the #6. The #7 and #8 were the co-favorites and ridden by C-Velazquez & Dominguez. If that’s what happened, today somebody found religion when the 7th choice in a ten-horse race looped the field around the turn and pulled away to win by 4 lengths.

[toetoe]

Cholly,

He can only cash once, but how do you know he didn't spread 4- or 6-deep in leg 6 ? :confused: .

[Cholly]

Cholly,

He can only cash once, but how do you know he didn't spread 4- or 6-deep in leg 6 ? :confused: .

Will-pays showed that eight of the ten horses led to a carry-over. Other than Sonic Sound, the only other horse covered was the 9-2 public's third choice, Warrior Miss. BTW, that one never picked up a leg--finished 9th.

[sandpit]

I was watching the race and thinking about whomever had the winning ticket as the winner took over in the stretch...what an awesome feeling seeing the horse you picked come home a clear winner and you having the only ticket in such a large pool!

[cj]

It is certainly possible the winner had more than one P6 ticket punched and could have used others in the last race on those.

[toetoe]

Will-pays showed that eight of the ten horses led to a carry-over. Other than Sonic Sound, the only other horse covered was the 9-2 public's third choice, Warrior Miss. BTW, that one never picked up a leg--finished 9th.

Sorry, either I didn't pay attention or I forgot. :blush:

As cj notes, it might be a "miss" ticket, with all other tickets dead.

Good thread. :) .

[Cholly]

It is certainly possible the winner had more than one P6 ticket punched and could have used others in the last race on those.

Even if he had other tickets, he’s still have to be using a strategy that on one ticket would get him two $38 winners, and wind up with a 12-1 shot as either a single or used going two-deep.

I once read an interview with a self-described professional Pick-6 player (from Minnesota, I think) who employed what he called the “Separator” strategy. He would single one or two horses, and then use every horse he felt even remotely possible in the other legs--except for the one leg that had his Separator. His Separator was a horse anticipated to pay at least $20, whom he felt to be very logical—and who would separate him from most if not all of the other bettors.

That could be one explanation for a single winner of $386,000, or it could have been somebody just playing numbers. Not that it matters, but I’m sticking with the mis-punched ticket theory.

[toetoe]

I was really looking forward to a juicy Wednesday carryover, shameful 10% tacked-on takeout notwithstanding. Oh, well ... :( .

[philcski]

Even if he had other tickets, he’s still have to be using a strategy that on one ticket would get him two $38 winners, and wind up with a 12-1 shot as either a single or used going two-deep.

I once read an interview with a self-described professional Pick-6 player (from Minnesota, I think) who employed what he called the “Separator” strategy. He would single one or two horses, and then use every horse he felt even remotely possible in the other legs--except for the one leg that had his Separator. His Separator was a horse anticipated to pay at least $20, whom he felt to be very logical—and who would separate him from most if not all of the other bettors.

That could be one explanation for a single winner of $386,000, or it could have been somebody just playing numbers. Not that it matters, but I’m sticking with the mis-punched ticket theory.

Interesting strategy, the horse certainly wasn't impossible if she ran back to her midsummer form off the long layoff but it was interesting that the 7 & 8 weren't covered and that one was. The 2 was 8-1 ML which would also support your theory. I'd honestly be surprised if it was a mis punch because anybody who puts enough money into a pick 6 to have the coverage for that kind of ticket is probably going to be pretty anal about having it correct.

One thing I'm sure of- Aqueduct turf racing is just about impossible.

[the little guy]

All things considered, I would be extremely surprised if the winning ticket wasn't either a Quick-Pick or a random, and very small, ticket. There were only 14 total consos.

I suppose it could have been part of a larger play but in this case I doubt it.

[point given]

When I saw who the connections were for the two covered horses #2, #6, I thought that one would take the 2 , Weaver horses due to his , wise guy percentages, then I saw C Baker on the 6 and he was the owner as well as trainer, and although he is not known as a turf trainer, he has been known to score at a price in the past , although usually at Saratoga. So, one vote for a wiseguy trainer play.

[Market Mover]

This "Separator" strategy would cost this p6 player a lot of money, very quickly...

[Spendabuck85]

The winning ticket was purchased through the Palm Beach Kennel Club.

[Market Mover]

...was not entirely impossible. He'd run a few solid seconds and thirds on the turf before, and his obviously overlaid off odds of 13-1 did not reflect his true odds in the p4 or p6...i think he was on a lot of p4 tickets (and Grand Slam tickets)....he'd chase Dr. Jess Jr. before on the lawn, and it made sense a return to preferred surface would awaken this beast...

Now as for Hawkinsville...that was a stretch!

[ENT222]

this sounds crazy but Hawkinsville was my single, was alive to the 1,3,8 in the pick 4, $36 ticket

[point given]

The winning ticket was purchased through the Palm Beach Kennel Club.

heard awhile back that there was a good p6 crew down there, so just a mild surprise . Maybe they had some of that Madoff money to burn.