Par times

[anotherdave]

I have a couple of sets of par times - 2002 Horsestreet, and an older Cynthia. I was wondering what people do to adjust them for different situations. Both give a 10000 par, but how much do you add to the time if it is a female race, or a NW2 LIFE race, or a 3YO only race, (or a FEMALE, NW2LIFE, 3YO race!) Some adjustment is obviously needed and probably somewhat track dependent. But would you think a +2/5 adjustment for a female race would be reasonable in most circuits?

I understand that there are probably not enough races at most tracks to do more intricate pars, but I would like to make a rough adjustment.

Thanks

AD

[Chico]

Originally posted by anotherdave
I have a couple of sets of par times - 2002 Horsestreet, and an older Cynthia. I was wondering what people do to adjust them for different situations. Both give a 10000 par, but how much do you add to the time if it is a female race, or a NW2 LIFE race, or a 3YO only race, (or a FEMALE, NW2LIFE, 3YO race!) Some adjustment is obviously needed and probably somewhat track dependent. But would you think a +2/5 adjustment for a female race would be reasonable in most circuits?

I understand that there are probably not enough races at most tracks to do more intricate pars, but I would like to make a rough adjustment.
AD

Here is the adjustments I use for Fillies & Mares:
Sprints: 1/5 for the 2nd call 2/5 for the finish
Routes: 1/5 1st call 2/5 2nd call 3/5 finish
Hope this does you some good.
Regards,
Chico

[Fastracehorse]

I do exp't along the same lines as you - for Maidens jumping into a starter Alw I subtract 6 Beyer points.

But not much more than that, I just don't want to over-estimate a horse, or under-estimate him either.

fffastt

[sjk]

For the filly/mare adjustment I use around 10 pts (Beyer) with a slightly larger adjustment for claiming races and a slightly smaller adjustment for allowance types.

I took a look at Hst and the filly difference is more like 7 pts there. I don't know why.

I don't try to use 3 year old races for pars, but if I did, the adjustment would be considerably greater for claiming races than for allowances and would depend on the time of year.

[cj]

There is a pretty good chart for just this sort of thing in one of William Quirin's books, pretty sure it is Thoroughbred Handicapping: State of the Art. I have loaned it to my brother so I can't look it up for you, but maybe he'll read this and respond, or someone else with the book.

Chart handles fillies, maiden claimers, and 3yo claimers to the best of my recollection.

CJ

[keilan]

The pars you are looking at are for male horses and adjustments need to be made for equivalent female class levels.


For sprints I adjust filles and mares (non clmg) by 2 lengths and 3 lengths for (clmg).

For routes I adjust filles and mares (non clmg) by 3 lengths and 5 lengths for (clmg).

Allowances can also be made for 3yo’s as they develop/mature throughout the year.

Word of caution at “B” tracks; the class levels below the 10k par time may not require as large of an adjustment – horses of either sex can’t run very fast and occasionally the bottom class horses run close to the same final times regardless of gender.

Females almost always expend more of their available energy early as opposed to the equivalent male class level.

[Larry Hamilton]

This question about pars came up at least once before. So, I tried to make my own. AS it turns out, the hard part was setting up the db to do all the "averaging"...now complete, it can tell you the par at any track, at any distance, by any type except maiden, on any surface at any call, distance, or speed..kinda neet, I am still foolin around with it to find its value AND it's updated every day.

For instance, I can tell you that at Belmont, 6 furlongs, dirt, the 1st call has a par of 22.54 seconds, within .4 beaten lengths

[sjk]

I have 22.53. Must be on the same page. Second call 45.92

[Tom]

From their booklet about partimes:
(All adjsutments in 1/5's)

FM sprint -2 route - 3

Maiden claimers sprint - 5 route - 7 (from open claimng price)

Restricted claimers
nw2 3 5
nw3 2 3
nw4 1 2

2 and 3 yo adjustments get a little hairier - if interested I'll post, but it will take alittle while - lots of them for distances/time of year.

In real life, they are not really accurate, but close enough in most cases. Good workin' numbers.

[anotherdave]

Thanks all. I appreciate the responses. I think I've got the answers I needed.

AD

[jotb]

Hello All:

I found out when comparing fillies vs the colts, there is absolutely no way to project how much faster the colts are or vice versa. The reason for this is CONDITIONS. For sure the colts are faster comparing each condition but each condition will vary from 1/2 length to as much as 5 lengths. For example in NY, claiming 10k for colts are almost 5 lengths faster than fillies 10k claimers. Top of the claiming ladder is a different story. The 65-75 claimers for colts generally run 2 lengths faster than the 65-75 for fillies. Here is another example. MSW colts are faster 3 lengths on average when compared to MSW fillies but MSW NY BRED races for colts are 7 lengths faster than MSW NY BRED fillies. These examples are all for sprint races. Route races are distorted as well. I would think the best way around this is to take each condition seperately. If you apply rules such colts are faster 2 lengths in sprints and 3 lengths in routes some of those filly condition pars will have higher expectations which in turn will effect variant and adjusted times. Of course, there is a way around this. It might be wise to take all the colt conditions and compare them to the filly conditions on equal final time averages. For instance, if a MSW for colts averages 111.00 it's possible that an ALW1X for fillies is also 111.00. To determine if there is truth to this, I would make sure each racing surface is the same. In New York, you have AQU MAIN, AQUEDUCT INNER, BELMONT and SAR.

JOE

[jotb]

For instance, I can tell you that at Belmont, 6 furlongs, dirt, the 1st call has a par of 22.54 seconds, within .4 beaten lengths [/B][/QUOTE]


I was wondering if this first fraction par includes all sprints at Belmont and how if not, how large is your sample for 6.0F at Belmont. I have 750 races but this includes 5.0,5.5,6.5,7.0. I'm showing a 22.65, 4597, 7096 for 6F.

Best regards,
Joe

[rmania]

Isn’t it amazing how complicated modern day handicapping has become?

Is one’s time really well spent with this stuff?

Maybe the answers are right there in your posts.

“I don't know why...”
“I am still foolin around with it to find its value...”
“In real life, they are not really accurate...”
“there is absolutely no way to project...”

Just some food for thought.;)

[Fastracehorse]

Pars aren't particularly complicated but they take alot of work.

If you truly understand a discipline you can explain it quite simply.

Eg's,

1) F = ma
2) E = m x c to the 2nd power
3) Beyers

[Dave Schwartz]

I truly wish it was as easy as averaging a bunch of times together.

If it were, I'd automate them and not bother to sell them.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[andicap]

Originally posted by Larry Hamilton
This question about pars came up at least once before. So, I tried to make my own. AS it turns out, the hard part was setting up the db to do all the "averaging"...now complete, it can tell you the par at any track, at any distance, by any type except maiden, on any surface at any call, distance, or speed..kinda neet, I am still foolin around with it to find its value AND it's updated every day.

For instance, I can tell you that at Belmont, 6 furlongs, dirt, the 1st call has a par of 22.54 seconds, within .4 beaten lengths

For all classes?
The problem with using all classes is the quality of one track is much better than another so how you can see Belmont is 1 second faster than say, Calder, if the 1 second might be due to the higher quality of the animals.

The answer to that has long been the universal 10K (or 12K) par that Beyer used. That at most tracks, 10 and 12K horses are similar quality around the country so you compared those times and then extraopolate the rest of the class pars from that (Brohamer did the same exercise in his book)

Comments on this?

[sjk]

I would not claim that my C10000 pars are particulary exact, but I show a significant spread among the 79 tracks for which I have such a par (about 10 pts). The par seems to generally correlate with purse levels, except for the Canadian tracks which are lower because the 10000 is in Canadian currency.

[kenwoodall]

For all you math geniuses, how about these figures for a good exacta overlay system= Expected win bet (E)= Morning line favorite odds (M) times #of Contenders (C) times itself. Bet exactas closest to that # as payoff. For example= Favorite is 2/1 X 3 contenders=6 X itself=$36.00. Play any combination that is closest to a $36.00 payoff! this will force you to consider a quality off the pace horse.
The formula for this system is E=MC squared!!

[andicap]

Purse levels? But only with claimers, right? You can't compare allowance purse levels because of state-bred races.

[sjk]

I exclude state-bred races when making pars because they are so different from open races. The logic as to why the 10000 claimers are different is that you would be more willing to take a chance of losing your horse if the relative size of the purse to be won is greater (I'm sure I've read this somewhere).

Open (non-state bred) allowance race pars vary with purse size even more greatly since the better grade of horses are given a shot at the better tracks.

[Fastracehorse]

<I'd automate them and not bother to sell them.

LOL - :)

Have I got a deal for you!

fffastt

[Dave Schwartz]

Ffast,

What that mean?

Dave

[Fastracehorse]

Just funning.

:)

fffastt