Pace Cap'n
04-23-2003, 01:10 PM
Started to post this in reply to Freeneasy's system. which was a good read, but maybe a separte system needs a separate thread.
Free, yours was an interesting post. There is a system for picking contenders that I use from time to time. It is not
a purchased system, but one I heard about not long ago. It is very good for selecting horses that stand a chance to
come in the money, even win. Where it really shines is it's speed and simplicity. Let's say you sitting at the OTB
faithfully betting the races you so carefully scoped out last night, and you happen to look three screens down and see
a race going off at an unfamiliar track, with 12 horses in the race, and the lowest odds showing are 3/1, and going way
up from there. Just by looking at the tote, you can picture a multi-thousand-dollar tri, but it's 4 minutes to post. Luckily,
you happen to have a DRF for that track.
Use the speed and variant numbers in the form for the horse's last race. Start with the variant fig. Subtract it from 100.
Take this result and subtract that from the speed figure. If the result of the second calculation is a positive number,
the you have a "+". If it is a negative figure, then it's a "-". (plus or minus). Rank the top four horses with the highest
plus being the best. Often, you will find that this ranking will correspond to your list of contenders just as if you had
actually handicapped the race.
To take a cheap stab at the pie-in-the-sky tri, wheel the top ranked horse over the next two for a dollar (1/2-3/2-3).
If you feel more agressive, wheel over the next three (1/2-3-4/2-3-4).
An example: DRF figs--84-18. 100-18=82. 84-82=(+2). Ex: figs--86-12. 100-12=88. 86-88=(-2).
This will not work too well with stakes races, and not at all with graded races. These races will be loaded with plusses,
while bottom-level claimers will show all minuses (sometimes huge minuses). Allowance and mid-level claiming races are
probably best for this spot play.
After you have done the calcs for awhile, you will get really speedy at it. Also, if you have time, you can figure three
or four races back to see if you can spot a trend (think Rags). Have been experimenting with that, but have come to no
conclusions.
It can also be helpful to your handicapping as a check-and-balance to be sure you haven't overlooked a possible contender.
It would be nice to have it incorporated into any program(s) you may use. Wish I did.
Best score to date: $2,300 tri at GG on a $2.00 bet. Hit several at Oaklawn in $2-300 range.
In closing, let me emphasize that this is only a suggestion. It is not the Holy Grail, a black-box, etc. etc.
Good luck and good 'capping,
(and better bettin')
Steve
Free, yours was an interesting post. There is a system for picking contenders that I use from time to time. It is not
a purchased system, but one I heard about not long ago. It is very good for selecting horses that stand a chance to
come in the money, even win. Where it really shines is it's speed and simplicity. Let's say you sitting at the OTB
faithfully betting the races you so carefully scoped out last night, and you happen to look three screens down and see
a race going off at an unfamiliar track, with 12 horses in the race, and the lowest odds showing are 3/1, and going way
up from there. Just by looking at the tote, you can picture a multi-thousand-dollar tri, but it's 4 minutes to post. Luckily,
you happen to have a DRF for that track.
Use the speed and variant numbers in the form for the horse's last race. Start with the variant fig. Subtract it from 100.
Take this result and subtract that from the speed figure. If the result of the second calculation is a positive number,
the you have a "+". If it is a negative figure, then it's a "-". (plus or minus). Rank the top four horses with the highest
plus being the best. Often, you will find that this ranking will correspond to your list of contenders just as if you had
actually handicapped the race.
To take a cheap stab at the pie-in-the-sky tri, wheel the top ranked horse over the next two for a dollar (1/2-3/2-3).
If you feel more agressive, wheel over the next three (1/2-3-4/2-3-4).
An example: DRF figs--84-18. 100-18=82. 84-82=(+2). Ex: figs--86-12. 100-12=88. 86-88=(-2).
This will not work too well with stakes races, and not at all with graded races. These races will be loaded with plusses,
while bottom-level claimers will show all minuses (sometimes huge minuses). Allowance and mid-level claiming races are
probably best for this spot play.
After you have done the calcs for awhile, you will get really speedy at it. Also, if you have time, you can figure three
or four races back to see if you can spot a trend (think Rags). Have been experimenting with that, but have come to no
conclusions.
It can also be helpful to your handicapping as a check-and-balance to be sure you haven't overlooked a possible contender.
It would be nice to have it incorporated into any program(s) you may use. Wish I did.
Best score to date: $2,300 tri at GG on a $2.00 bet. Hit several at Oaklawn in $2-300 range.
In closing, let me emphasize that this is only a suggestion. It is not the Holy Grail, a black-box, etc. etc.
Good luck and good 'capping,
(and better bettin')
Steve