Cheap races vs High class races.

[Imriledup]

I wanted to ask which races do you feel more comfortable with, cheap races or top class races? Personally, i like the cheaper races, especially maiden claimers. The reason i like cheaper races is because in those bottom rung races, there is usually a segment of the population that just can't run a lick.

In wide open competitive allowance or stakes races, almost everyone looks good on paper and has some chance. Almost every horse in an allowance race or stakes race has enough talent in their bodies where if they run their A race, they have a shot to win.

Take the Lexington on Saturday at Kee. 12 horses, they all have talent. They all look good on paper. They all seem to have the ability to run Beyer figs in the 90s (the ones who haven't hit 90 yet are very close and do have the ability to run in the 90s or higher if they have a good day) and if you bet this race, you're going to have to climb a mountain to cash your bet. When they turn for home, there's going to be a cavalry of horses coming at you, trying to beat you. In the cheap races, half the field 'can't run' you don't have to worry about some bad horse coming to get you as much as you have to worry about a good horse coming to get you.

I know that some might say that you should want more horses to look good on paper so you can get a higher price on the horse you play. They might also say that in the terrible races, the no hopers will be 50-1 and the entire world is throwing them out also, so there's really no edge.

Good, hard knocking cheapies are just as consistent as top class runners yet the public feels the need to wager larger amounts on better class races. I wouldn't mind making my biggest bet of the year on a 3k claimer if i found a big enough edge to exploit.

[fmolf]

i agree with you 100%..... i find more overlays in the cheaper races because horses are much easier to eliminate!in alw or higher it is harder to discern which horses are in good form an which may be on the downward spiral of their cycle...i usuall just make an exacta box if i can narrow it down to my three best horsesusually the best speed horse with a presser and a closer to fill it out....small amts just to have a watch bet

[HUSKER55]

i AGREE AS WELL.

[Bettowin]

The problem I have with cheap horses is that they go in and out of form quickly and often with no prior warning signs. It's almost as if you should throw out a horse who has 2 or 3 good races in a row and looks great on paper because the odds of putting that many good races together are low. At smaller tracks the low level claimers run against each other on a regular basis and you see a horse that lost by 7 or 8 lengths turn the tables the next race for no obvious reason other than a good improvement coupled with a dropoff by the previous winner. I find that so hard to predict.

[kitts]

True, the cheapies go in and out of form quickly but that sure does help in finding overlays. If you follow your circuit, many patterns emerge on these cheapies. I have been tracking my bets since 1990 and consistently find my profits here. Apparently, cheapies and I just fit.

[GaryG]

Those maiden 8 claimers at Tampa have been my best plays all winter and have been for a long time. I like the low level "1y" claimers too. Big races are fun to talk about but there is gold in the cheap ones.

[BlueShoe]

For some reason,I have a knack for doing quite well in those cheap races that confound most players.For instance,in one of those nw2L low level claimers you might have 11 runners that look impossible,and 1 that merely looks awful;awful then becomes a solid play.On the other hand,on a big Saturday,with many cards featuring stakes races,usually am going to have a rough day if I attempt to play the quality races.Have two choices on such days;stay home or ignore the big races and handicap the undercard races.A 16000 claimer in Chicago for older males or a turf race for maiden 3yo fillies in Northern California might produce plays that look like standouts,whereas those graded stakes look like difficult blurs.

[Norm]

I must agree with the majority here. Stakes races are good entertainment, but the betting races are the claimers, the maidens and the N2Ls.

[fmolf]

much easier to gauge the overlays verse the rest of the field..stakes races and high grade allowances generally have no trouble filling ....middle to low claimers often have many horses that are overmatched and are asked to race by the racing secretary to fill a race , or by friendly trainers who do favors for each other so races will fill and their fit and ready horse has a soft spot to run in....."theirs gold in them thar hills"

[Run Nicholas Run]

For myself I like sprinting claimers for colts and geldings.
I looked at the results from " the charts weekly" and used
various tracks and those type of races
do get the results with the larger payoffs

[toussaud]

i prefer cheap races. I don't even bet stakes races unless it's the derby or breeders cup day

[Bobzilla]

I like the extremes. I agree with much of what's been written about the cheaper races. A quick turn around in form can be predicted with something as simple as a horse finally getting a better post position and the possibility/probability of a more comfortable trip. Cheaper seem more sensitive to the stresses and discouragent of a less than ideal trip. How many times have we seen a cheapo hung out on the outside on the Aqueduct Inner, throw out a little energy only to be vectored off into oblivion at the top of the lane? A few weeks later he's a throwout in the minds of many who after taking what amounts to a cursory glance of his past performance lines and can't imagine a single digit BSF animal ever coming back and winning even with a better trip, headier rider, smarter tactics, more advantageous field composition or pace scenario.

These low end races on the spring time grass courses are ripe with potential first time on grass winners, horses who may not have been able to do much of anything on dirt but might all of a sudden feel like a racehorse once in a race with footing that allows them to be comfortable while competing. My personal favorites are horses by Storm Cat, Gone West and Unbridled stallions for first time grass, especially in maiden claiming or clm n2l, n3l type races.

On the opposite extreme, there is often much value in Graded Stakes races where there might be many truly competitive animals in an event but there will always seem to be a few who get a disproportinate amount of the action based on reputation and hype. If you can make a case against an over hyped favorite then there can be tremendous value in the mutuals. People seem to forget quickly but this happens every year. The Breeders' Cup races can yield explosive payoffs, the vast majority of the competitors are animals of quality who, if cycling up and faced with an ideal scenario can remind the public rather quicky as to why they're there in the first place, especially if some of the bigger names are past their peaks.

It's the races in between the extremes where I personally find the action less fruitful. Open company N1X, N2X in the spring for example.

[fmolf]

i can see your points all valid....but i do not like to bet any serious money when i believe through handicapping that any one of maybe five horses can win a race

[sonnyp]

I think the biggest overlays in racing are in 2 y o maiden special weight races.

as stated above many entered in these races simply do NOT belong. some are entered here to placate an owner's ego or to justify training bills on an animal purchased the previous fall with all kinds of b.s. having been fed to that owner about how great this runner was going to be.

also, many trainers use the first one or two races (msw) to evaluate (you never REALLY know what you got till they race) or put the finishing touches on conditioning before they drop into a valued maiden claiming race where they mean business.

on the other hand, most of the great ones started in a msw somewhere. theoretically, you can catch a future secretariat in a field of future $10,000 claimers.

very rarely can this disparity in pure ability come about in racing.

[fmolf]

alas the greatest drop in racing....only if the horse was well meant to begin with... i think good trainers do evaluate well in these msw's....bad trainers have no reason being in them hence that they see their horses take multiple drops thru the mcl ranks burning money on the way down...lol

[toussaud]

I think the biggest overlays in racing are in 2 y o maiden special weight races.

as stated above many entered in these races simply do NOT belong. some are entered here to placate an owner's ego or to justify training bills on an animal purchased the previous fall with all kinds of b.s. having been fed to that owner about how great this runner was going to be.

also, many trainers use the first one or two races (msw) to evaluate (you never REALLY know what you got till they race) or put the finishing touches on conditioning before they drop into a valued maiden claiming race where they mean business.

on the other hand, most of the great ones started in a msw somewhere. theoretically, you can catch a future secretariat in a field of future $10,000 claimers.

very rarely can this disparity in pure ability come about in racing.


also outside the breeders cup I don't bet 2YO races. 2YO's grow up too fast for me to make a valid wager on. 2YOs really DO improve that much from week to week.

[misscashalot]

I think the biggest overlays in racing are in 2 y o maiden special weight races. .....on the other hand, most of the great ones started in a msw somewhere. theoretically, you can catch a future secretariat in a field of future $10,000 claimers.


In 1977 the Champion 2 yr old fillie was Lakeville Miss, a multiple GI winner. Jose Martin started her out by winning a $35,000 Mdn Clmer. Later she was sold for $500,000.

[sonnyp]

In 1977 the Champion 2 yr old fillie was Lakeville Miss, a multiple GI winner. Jose Martin started her out by winning a $35,000 Mdn Clmer. Later she was sold for $500,000.

EVERYTHING happens in racing. you pointed out the exception rather than the rule.

guaranteed, the vast majority of msw starters end up no where rather than vice versa.

i was speaking of human nature. most believe they have a champion until they have no choice but to accept the reality of their situation.

[misscashalot]

EVERYTHING happens in racing. you pointed out the exception rather than the rule.

guaranteed, the vast majority of msw starters end up no where rather than vice versa.

i was speaking of human nature. most believe they have a champion until they have no choice but to accept the reality of their situation.


.....hope springs eternal dats why we bet p6's

[RonTiller]

I threw this together just as a quick snapshot of the competitiveness of cheap versus higher class races. Don't have the time for anything more elaborate.

The data is for various claiming price levels, allowance races with purses >= $50,000 and graded stakes races, since Jan 1, 2008. The far right column is the % of horses that have NOT finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in any of their last 3 races.

$2500 claiming races have the highest percentage of these "dud" performers and the percentages go down in an almost perfect linear fashion going up the claiming levels. Graded stakes have just a small percentage of duds. This all makes sense, given that successful horses will rise to higher levels and unsuccessful horses will sink to lower levels.

RT Clm$ Records Count % Horses Not ITM 3X in a row
ALW NULL 6694 941 14.06
CLM 2500 11118 3769 33.90
CLM 4000 39325 13323 33.88
CLM 5000 65027 21207 32.61
CLM 6250 8377 2117 25.27
CLM 10000 23775 5880 24.73
CLM 12500 11297 2494 22.08
CLM 16000 7007 1639 23.39
CLM 20000 6716 1319 19.64
CLM 25000 10825 2120 19.58
CLM 32000 1548 306 19.77
CLM 50000 2285 380 16.63
GSTK NULL 5260 276 5.25

These next stats are for horses that finished 3rd or better in ALL 3 of their last 3 races. $2500 and $4000 claimers have the smallest percentage of these types; Graded stakes have almost 4 times the percentage of these ultra consistent horses as the lowest claiming levels.

RT Clm$ Records Count % Horses ITM 3X in a row
ALW NULL 6694 872 13.03
CLM 2500 11118 786 7.07
CLM 4000 39325 2671 6.79
CLM 5000 65027 4823 7.42
CLM 6250 8377 900 10.74
CLM 10000 23775 2196 9.24
CLM 12500 11297 1099 9.73
CLM 16000 7007 693 9.89
CLM 20000 6716 641 9.54
CLM 25000 10825 1156 10.68
CLM 32000 1548 157 10.14
CLM 50000 2285 271 11.86
STK NULL 5260 1464 27.83

By individual track is even more dramatic. Here, I'm guessing the different claiming condition levels for each track will have an impact on the statistics. Each track seems to find its own equilibrium. Clearly, bottom of the barrel $4000 claimers at TAM and EVD are not the same as bottom of the barrel $3200 claimers at EMD; there seems to be a much higher percentage of duds at TAM and EVD at their lowest claiming levels. I guess this could be considered good or bad.
EVD

RT Clm$ Records Count % Horses Not ITM 3X in a row
CLM 4000 4547 1962 43.15
CLM 5000 12781 4318 33.78
CLM 10000 4290 860 20.05
CLM 12500 2340 437 18.68
CLM 20000 1157 180 15.56

TAM

RT Clm$ Records Count % Horses Not ITM 3X in a row
CLM 4000 2656 1178 44.35
CLM 5000 10040 4210 41.93
CLM 6250 2153 491 22.81
CLM 10000 3358 1004 29.90
CLM 12500 3050 749 24.56
CLM 16000 5693 1785 31.35
CLM 25000 1805 462 25.60

EMD

RT Clm$ Records Count % Horses Not ITM 3X in a row
CLM 3200 3707 1137 30.67
CLM 4000 3575 885 24.76
CLM 5000 3298 766 23.23
CLM 6250 1888 356 18.86
CLM 10000 1612 199 12.34
CLM 12500 2534 304 12.00
CLM 16000 1206 127 10.53
CLM 20000 1120 136 12.14
CLM 25000 1720 187 10.87

AQU

RT Clm$ Records Count % Horses Not ITM 3X in a row
CLM 10000 2359 917 38.87
CLM 12500 1169 381 32.59
CLM 16000 1709 528 30.90
CLM 20000 2200 497 22.59
CLM 25000 3126 668 21.37
CLM 50000 1552 206 13.27

HOL Not much stratification top to bottom

RT Clm$ Records Count % Horses Not ITM 3X in a row
CLM 10000 2168 649 29.94
CLM 12500 1635 414 25.32
CLM 16000 1573 339 21.55
CLM 20000 1207 237 19.64
CLM 25000 1988 420 21.13
CLM 32000 1186 222 18.72
CLM 50000 1967 414 21.05

KEE Very competitive!

RT Clm$ Records Count % Horses Not ITM 3X in a row
CLM 10000 977 174 17.81
CLM 25000 998 151 15.13
CLM 50000 597 66 11.06


Ron Tiller
HDW

[fmolf]

very interesting stats thanks ron..... i will always feel more comfortable betting cheapies and other grade claimers......these types are easier to see in the paddock if they are not feeling well also...some limp some have dull coats...some walk lethargically... higher grade horses all look good to me !

[OTM Al]

One thing I have discovered about my understanding of a race is that despite my quantitative abilty, I work best as a class handicapper using figs for support rather than a basis to start from. Because of this, I feel most comfortable with stakes races, the higher the grade the better. Don't play them all of course as unfortunately many renewals of great races are undersubscribed, but a solid field of stakes horses is something I feel good about. I really like the English racing because of this. Because of my approach, I'm also good at maiden races and even the higher end maiden claimers at the higher end tracks. I have no ability whatsoever though at low end races. I just don't know what I'm looking at and generally will only play them as part of a horizontal wager when I like the other legs.

[fmolf]

very interesting....i think it is easier to be a class handicapper in the lower end races....these horses careers are up and down the form cycle and you need to figure out what class animals a horse can beat at this particular time.....if you understand the classes within the classes such as a 10kn1y.. may not be as good as an 8kn2y or 3y...you also need to know which level claimer is equivalent to the allowance n1x at your particular track.... i compare these races with the beyer or brisnet speed pars...since stepping into the computer age when my son gave me his old laptop i have come to use the brisnet pp's more than the old fashioned form

[Bettowin]

very interesting....i think it is easier to be a class handicapper in the lower end races....these horses careers are up and down the form cycle and you need to figure out what class animals a horse can beat at this particular time.....if you understand the classes within the classes such as a 10kn1y.. may not be as good as an 8kn2y or 3y...you also need to know which level claimer is equivalent to the allowance n1x at your particular track.... i compare these races with the beyer or brisnet speed pars...since stepping into the computer age when my son gave me his old laptop i have come to use the brisnet pp's more than the old fashioned form

Understanding the class within the class in one thing but at the lower levels you could have the same 10 horses run against each other 10 times and have 5 or 7 different winners. I play a lot of lower level races and there are certain situations that repeat themselves over and over. When one of those situations is a play against a favorite or even the top two horses (oddswise) in a race it's MONEY. The problem is to acknowledge it and bet it. Goes back to a thread on this site about human nature.

[dav4463]

I prefer the cheap races. There are more of them and it is easier to identify positive and negative class moves.

[fmolf]

Understanding the class within the class in one thing but at the lower levels you could have the same 10 horses run against each other 10 times and have 5 or 7 different winners. I play a lot of lower level races and there are certain situations that repeat themselves over and over. When one of those situations is a play against a favorite or even the top two horses (oddswise) in a race it's MONEY. The problem is to acknowledge it and bet it. Goes back to a thread on this site about human nature.
i have found that at the lower tier tracks.. the class within a class is easy to handicap.lets take 5000n2l...afew of the maiden winner three yr olds will graduate around the same time from their maiden wins and if you follow these horses thru out the season the best one will go on to the next class ..then the next best one ..till at the end of the year you have really bad horses running in this condition....this happens at all different levels where the best horse graduates first whether it be n1y or n3l or whatever class within a class the horse with the best form and most advantageous post or running style for the bias will win...that is why we handicap them ... i am able to determine which horse is fit and ready to win better in these races than in stakes races and high grade allowances at the better tracks

[awesomehandicapper]

Great set of numbers.
Can I use on our web site.?
It is a partnership and we are trying to upgrade. These numbers really
tie into that.