If You had a budget what would you play?

[pktruckdriver]

I am curious here about how you would play the DERBY if you ony had say either 50.00 or 100.00 to play this year, as many may have, me included.


How would you structure this money to maximize your profit potential look at last years payoffs



Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff
$2 Exacta20-5$141.60 $1 Trifecta20-5-16$1722.80 1$Superfecta 20-5-16-2$29368.90 $2 Oaks/Derby Daily Double8-20$37.80


Would you maybe go for the exacta and tri's this year may have great potential as no clear cut fav this year, not like BB last year, and look at the superfecta with BB no top, wow, and the trifecta was awesome too, 1700.00 for a dollar.

We could do this a few ways here, we could just explain what you would bet with either 50 or 100 dollars, ex or tri or super or a litttle of all of them

Or we could have actual real live wagers for 50 or 100 to see who does best or makes the most from their little hard time bet, I am open to idea's here, please


Sad part about this is I will probally use one of theses scenarios, I am lucky enough to get 50 to 100 to wager with on the 1st Saturday of May, I hope so.

computer allowing me I may be back with my mythical wager soon enough

Thanks all


Patrick

[njcurveball]

I am curious here about how you would play the DERBY if you ony had say either 50.00 or 100.00 to play this year, as many may have, me included.


I would handicap the race and bet $25 to win on my top choice, $20 win on my 2nd choice and $5 to win on my 3rd choice. It is just one race in a series of thousands and no sense taking a huge swing unless you have to pay a bill before the next race goes off.

Turn the $50 into $100 or more and work slowwwwwwwly ahead. If you truly have and edge, the bankroll will increase if it is bet properly. Swinging at exotics with your last $50 is not a wise move whether it is the Derby or a $2,500 claiming race at Penn National.

Good Luck to you!
Jim

[MNslappy]

$5 Exacta ABC/ABCDE = $60
$2 Trifecta A/BCDEF/BCDEF $40

[Cat Thief]

Definitely the most sensible bet.I think anyone would say win and place bets are the best bitI also think we just like the exotics as they are a gamble and we are all gamblers right! But the win bet is the best bet

[pktruckdriver]

$5 Exacta ABC/ABCDE = $60
$2 Trifecta A/BCDEF/BCDEF $40


I like your thinking .... Now if you could just provide me with the winner please.


This year, to me is wide open, best year in a long time, my top list has about 6 horses on it, and just below that is another 6-8 that could sneak in and steal the win, that is about 14 out of 20 who could win this , man how do you,
"cap this one", it is beeyond me.


Patrick

[RichieP]

I would handicap the race and bet $25 to win on my top choice, $20 win on my 2nd choice and $5 to win on my 3rd choice.
Jim
:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[facorsig]

It is just one race in a series of thousands and no sense taking a huge swing unless you have to pay a bill before the next race goes off.

I completely agree. Who cares about where the money comes from, it all spends the same. I am just as happy to win the cheap, broken down claimer at CT as I am to win Derby or races at Saratoga. In the long run, you'll do better if you can handicap 6f claiming sprints for $5000 purse than the Kentucky Derby because one of these two conditions is run every day!

Fred

[pktruckdriver]

Why don't you guys get it????



Are you guys so filthy rich that taking a chance on America's largest single day Mutuel event, mean that for the other 364 days one does not go back to the basic's, the average, everyday handicapping , that includes CL for 5k to OC for 62.5k and everything in between.


But once a year comes this amazing race, a race that is like no other, when it comes to the pay-offs, no other race has millions in the pools to be divided appropriately to the winners, giving them amazing returns on their investments, more than they would get on a normal day at the race's, that is for sure.


I liken it to the Lottery, except that it comes once a year with the Derby and hitting somethign big from the Derby should be easier than hitting the Real Lottery, agreed??


Now I am broke most of the time, especially of late, due to poor planning on my part and the bad economy also, but for years I have always had this dream of hitting the big pay day at the Derby, so far, I only hit a few small tri's and exacta's nothing over 2000.00 yet, but this seems to be a year where that big pay off will be bigger than normal years, and it seems that I will be lacking the funds of a Derby Bankroll this year, and it is sad for me, while others here keep saying it is just another race, no it is not just another Race, IT IS THE KY. DERBY, A RACE THAT CAN CHANGE YOUR LIFE IN LESS THAN 3 MINUTES, to me a 58k Superfecta would change my life dramatically, heck even 1/4 of that would, let alone say 5x's that would do even more for someone who hit it, so this is not just another race, not to me and many who have had that life changing hit before, it is a special race.


As much as people try to tell me it is just a Race, no it isn't , it is my once a year Dream, and try as you may, you can not take it away from me, and after it is over than things go back to normal until, the following year and again I get that one chance for winning a huge pay off, but thru-out the remainding year , I bet regularly, for praticality, not for the huge pay outs, but for winners , ones that keep your ROI up, not for the life changing wager that the Derby provides for all, becuase the small claiming races do not offer that to you, like the Derby does, simple.



So quit trying to rain on my parade here, and get on the band wagon, not againgst it all the time.


Thank you

Patrick


One can dream one day of the year and be normal the rest, it does happen that way, ya 'll are aware of that right

[Robert Fischer]

take some shots at the $1 super

use your picks 1st and 2nd and use some longshots either 3rd or 4th or both.

$1 superfecta
AB
ABC
ABC
DE(LONG shots) = $8

A
BC
BC
D(longshot) = $2

A
BC
DE(longshot)
DF(longshot) = $6


hope you hit one for 50K

[Red Knave]

So quit trying to rain on my parade here, and get on the band wagon, not againgst it all the time.
When you ask for advice on this board you will probably get it. You may not like it, but you'll get it.

When you get that advice, you can either take it or not.

So don't ask for advice and then complain that it's not what you were looking for.

You're getting about a million years worth of experience, good and bad, from the posters here. It's sometimes hard to appreciate the value in that.

[ryesteve]

a race that is like no other



I liken it to the Lottery



You hit on two of the reasons why some people don't necessarily see the Derby as a great betting opportunity

[beertapper]

if you ask me, breeders cup day is a much better opportunity for betting

[Cat Thief]

It sure is the biggest horse day of the year and if we don't have the money we should bet $2 tri's straight up and hope for a miracle. Ya never know

[W2G]

Patrick,

Yes, by virtue of the 20 horse field, Derby exotic pools are a once-a-year feast inflated with casual and utterly uninformed money.

$100 can go a long way. Try to catch $1 of the tri and super. Robert Fischer illustrated some ways to structure affordable tickets. Your 'capping will still have to be spot on to winnow the field down to a couple of key horses on top. Also throw an extra buck or three on your preferred combination straight. If you're going to be right, you may as well get paid handsomely.

And don't neglect the horizontals (pick 3/4) that include the Derby. You might come up with a strong opinion on a single somewhere in the series that keeps the tickets within budget. If you end up being totally wrong underneath in your Derby verticals but right in the top spot, you could still cash big horizontally.

[toussaud]

i'm not goin to get fancy. I'm going to take 500 dolars and put it on quality road's nose and get in line and collect my money. He's going to go off at about 5 to 1 which is laughable. you wil never got those odds on him again in his life

[pktruckdriver]

You are right RED, FRED, RYE, JIM, you guys are all right, I ask fir advice and you gave some, and I thank yoo for it, really I do, even though I did not like it and even said so, for that I apologize, I should not have reacted that way.


I am currently not in great financial shape, no ones fault but my own, and sometimes I get snappy, I truly apologize to you all, I do appreciate your replies, as they are all well meant, and truly make sense, and in a real world I probally follow your advice, but these time for me are not normal.

Which takes me to Roberts post, here he makes some very good suggestions for me to try, and I just may if I can, because with all that is said here I may end up not having any spare funds to play this year :( , not even for 50 or 100 dollars, if that happens, oh well, there's next year, and I will then be done with the big race till next year, and back to the actual win bet/ win dutch bets and build slow and carefully the bankroll when I eventually get one together again, and I will, eventually...


SO in brief sorry and thanks too
Patrick