Speed ratings vs distance

[jasperson]

I started making speed ratings in 1980 using Andy Beyers method and didn't stop until they were available in the drf and bris. I know at they are suppose to compensated for distance, but I think that it is easier to get a fast speed rating at the shorter distances. Case in point the 2yr old par for 4.5f at Keenland is 94 for Mc40000 and 3yr old Mc40000 at 6f is an 81. I don't think that this means the average 2yr old Mc40000 can beat an average 3yr old Mc40000 at 4.5f. Personaly I look at any high speed rating at 5f and shorter with a jaundiced eye when handicapping 6f and longer races. Also the tsn pace ratings are faster for the 2yr olds. What do you think is this something that is significant or is trying to make any sense of this meaningless?
Jack

[Robert Fischer]

I started making speed ratings in 1980 using Andy Beyers method and didn't stop until they were available in the drf and bris. I know at they are suppose to compensated for distance, but I think that it is easier to get a fast speed rating at the shorter distances. Case in point the 2yr old par for 4.5f at Keenland is 94 for Mc40000 and 3yr old Mc40000 at 6f is an 81. I don't think that this means the average 2yr old Mc40000 can beat an average 3yr old Mc40000 at 4.5f. Personaly I look at any high speed rating at 5f and shorter with a jaundiced eye when handicapping 6f and longer races. Also the tsn pace ratings are faster for the 2yr olds. What do you think is this something that is significant or is trying to make any sense of this meaningless?
Jack

they aren't asking for any stamina from the horse so a lot of times you have horses bred for 4 or 5 furlongs and they are cranked up, and some of those same 4.5 winners might quit badly if they ran 6 furlongs. They just had a filly 2yo run a furlong in :9 3/5 at the Ocala sale.

Also, at Keeneland in particular the surface is such that any horse who likes it, can run extremely for the shorter distances under 5 furlongs or so. It seems that times slow down more as the distance increases over that particular surface.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Ask me how a speed horse can win at a distance and why many distance winners do not lead wire to wire but have to PACE themselves and I will answer both with this- STAMINA. Many think it takes class to win higher purses, and longer races pay more purse and there are more high purse races at distance, but very few agree with me that stamina=class.
You will get more winners if you can figure out which horse has the most stamina for the distance in the current race- and it will earn the best speed rating in that race. See the PP's for the current KY Derby hopefulls and you will see horses stretching out AND moving up in class and distance successfully.

[misscashalot]

Ask me how a speed horse can win at a distance and why many distance winners do not lead wire to wire but have to PACE themselves and I will answer both with this- STAMINA. Many think it takes class to win higher purses, and longer races pay more purse and there are more high purse races at distance, but very few agree with me that stamina=class.


Please define class

[fmolf]

yes stamina does win races as long as a horse and jockey can ration their energy.....pace is what defeats so many route horses ....if pace is too fast then a stone cold closer can win if pace is too slow then speed horse can have enough left to win....statistics show that early speed wins just as many route races as sprint races...handicapping is to me judging which horse can run the fastest for that particular distance...form and horses being fit an ready is the main concern for me...lesser horses beat classier ones every day of every week....at every track and every meet

[CBedo]

Sounds like:

Early Speed with Stamina = Winner!

call me crazy, but I think we're getting close to talking about energy distribution. Not just energy distribution, but that as a function of how much potential energy has.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Please define class
Some definitions say class is the company a horse runs against, some say classification of race. I can also say earnings per start. IMO with any race longer than 4f, stamina (endurance) plays into it. And very few stakes races are less than 1 mile.

[kenwoodallpromos]

(TBred) American Graded Stakes Committee says just about 25% of graded stakes 2009 in North America are less than 1 mile. Of 488, I counted about 124 at less than 1 mile, many of those 7f. Very few are less than 6f.

[fmolf]

it is energy distribution....just as brohamer an sartin have discussed it but it really is a measure of how fast and how far speed can be carried.....we all know about the inverse relationship to early speed and final time...so for me i look for the fit horse who has been successful against this class horse before....at some time in its past...pace is a definite consideration though

[Robert Fischer]

some of the things i call "Class" - speed, stamina, ability to rate, ability to overcome adversity (trouble or even race dynamics), and expensive bridle

[Overlay]

I find that comparing figures based only on running surface and a general distinction between sprints and routes in today's race, while using a multi-race figure average, and looking at the average-figure rank from a probability standpoint, works well for me. Other aspects of the horse's record (such as earnings, early speed, and recent degree and quality of activity) can then be used to round out the assessment of class, current condition, and suitability to distance (again, all from a probability/betting value perspective).

[fmolf]

this is called comprehensive handicapping....every handicapper has his own way of assessing a horses chances...and uses different criteria for accomplishing this...it is what makes the game so interesting.....if e all used the same methods and data then we would all be picking the same horses every race...i use a similar method..averaging the last two speed figs....giving xtra credit for things like running against a bias ...or a speed horse in the outside post who guns it and fades...etc.. etc..running above its conditions.....best of the rest in light of a runaway winner....

[misscashalot]

statistics show that early speed wins just as many route races as sprint races...

Can you please give reference to whose statistics are these?