Hold Me Back

[goforgin]

I've been looking for a "nice price 20-1" Derby contender and Hold Me Back seems to fit the description. Not a whole lot being said or written. DMeaux and Mott conections. Giant's Causeway and Unbridled's Song influences. I also noticed the Beyer jump from 70's at 2 to 90's at 3. 3rd start this year, possible reason to improve. Negative is no wins on the dirt or even a placing. All wins and a place on the Poly. But, figure one of these years we'll see a Poly runner win the Derby with the number of tracks that have gone the synthetic route. Why not this year? I hear Hold Me Back should be better suited for the turf. Then why keep him on the Derby trail? Closes like a freight train, at least on the Poly. Figure DMeaux won't make the same "too late and wide run" as in the Bluegrass. Will definitely be a the nice price that I'm looking for. Any thoughts? " :6:"

[Relwob Owner]

I've been looking for a "nice price 20-1" Derby contender and Hold Me Back seems to fit the description. Not a whole lot being said or written. DMeaux and Mott conections. Giant's Causeway and Unbridled's Song influences. I also noticed the Beyer jump from 70's at 2 to 90's at 3. 3rd start this year, possible reason to improve. Negative is no wins on the dirt or even a placing. All wins and a place on the Poly. But, figure one of these years we'll see a Poly runner win the Derby with the number of tracks that have gone the synthetic route. Why not this year? I hear Hold Me Back should be better suited for the turf. Then why keep him on the Derby trail? Closes like a freight train, at least on the Poly. Figure DMeaux won't make the same "too late and wide run" as in the Bluegrass. Will definitely be a the nice price that I'm looking for. Any thoughts? " :6:"


I think you make a lot of good points and I could see it....I would think more between 10 and 15 to 1 buy if higher, more money for you! Dont love Dmeaux because he can be just as bad at times as he is good other times IMO

[Run Nicholas Run]

He certainly qualifies on a lot of past angles that do win
the derby and I like that when HOLD ME BACK is mentioned
that the naysayers mention the REMSEN flop on dirt.
If you watch the remsen he was wide and also Old Fashioned
set a slow pace that no one was gooing to close into.
I do like Kent D riding and this horse runs for him.
Remember if we get more negative feedback against him
thats better for us. :cool:

[sandpit]

Echoing here, but I think this horse has all the credentials to upset the field at a price. Would be very interested to see what the sheet boys think of him.
If he wins, that would give Desormeaux four Derby victories, tying him for second most all-time.

[Relwob Owner]

Echoing here, but I think this horse has all the credentials to upset the field at a price. Would be very interested to see what the sheet boys think of him.
If he wins, that would give Desormeaux four Derby victories, tying him for second most all-time.

What price do you think he will be? I think he will be about 15 to 1....you guys make some good points...I may be too hard on Kent D but the fact that he generally annoys me and often, in my opinion, doesnt always finish rides has always bothered me....however, he seems to ride the biggies with gusto...

[Zenyatta To Crush]

Hold Me Back will be at least 20-1. There are simply too many horses running that will be at lower odds. I Want Revenge, Quality Road, Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, Pioneerof the Nile, Desert Party, Chocolate Candy, Papa Clem and maybe even Musket Man and General Quarters will be at lower odds.

I think he'll be a good price horse and will include him in some of my trifectas. I'm thinking he'll be between 20-1 and 25-1.

[Relwob Owner]

Hold Me Back will be at least 20-1. There are simply too many horses running that will be at lower odds. I Want Revenge, Quality Road, Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, Pioneerof the Nile, Desert Party, Chocolate Candy, Papa Clem and maybe even Musket Man and General Quarters will be at lower odds.

I think he'll be a good price horse and will include him in some of my trifectas. I'm thinking he'll be between 20-1 and 25-1.

Wow. Now that you listed all of the contenders, I guess it hit me and I guess you are right...I was thinking IWR will be 7 to 2, and then a ton btw 9 to 2 and 15 and then HMB but your analysis seems to make more sense...also shows this will be a pretty deep Derby

[W2G]

Hold Me Back=Adriano? It may come back to bite me but I plan to toss this one completely out of the super. His bloodlines do not scream Ky Derby by any stretch of the imagination. Giant's Causeways do seem fond of the synth and HMB is no exception. Sure looks to me that staying on synth for preps was the best and perhaps only way his connections could see to get to Louisville. And WinStar does like being there the first Sat. in May. Now if I'm totally wrong about him you've got a juicy 20-1 shot here, but I see a nice synth/turf horse not a contender.

[LemonSoupKid]

I was at the 2000 Breeders Cup at Churchill Downs and the guy next to me lost a huge pick 4 when Giant's Causeway got beat by a closing Tiznow. GC didn't seem to mind the track that day.

Now, there clearly are reasons to deduce that he is not so much a dirt horse, but one race? A 3 year old? I like his style and as sandpit mentioned, Kent D has won 3 Kentucky Derbies, all 3 in the last 11 years (Real Quiet, FuPeg, Big Brown) and I'd be hard pressed to find a standout in this year's group. Everything screams that IWR should be the favorite but there are a great many questions, as usual. I love how, at least, IWR has 2 year old foundation. But so does Pioneeer of the Nile and he has beaten IWR. There will be a horse that runs well on the CD surface that you "wouldn't have known otherwise" due to cushion or poly racing in the previous races.

I mean, Square Eddie is another great 2 year old earner who is hard to figure on the dirt. A price on all of these is well worth it.

The betting public has done well with the Derby winner in the last 5 years, btw. The public generally knows what it is doing. I like Hold Me Back and several others but I have to say I'm waiting to see how their workouts look at CD. I think you are right aabout the prices too but no way IWR revenge goes off at anything less than 9/2. The settle price on really good horses entering the race is usually at least 5, normally 6. I will not bet IWR at anything less than 6 and I doubt he'll be much better than that.

[Richie]

On my sheets the horse is to slow, 5-8 horses would have to run off races and him jump about 5 pts to win, a complete toss

[Jeff Mende]

Are you referring to "your" sheets or sheets you purchased?

Regardless. What is the basis of these alleged "numbers?"

What individual characterisrtics of Hold Me Back do these "sheets" take into account?

The mental?

The physical?

Do "they" consider his current appearance?

The ability of his trainer?

What is his jockey likely to do in a 10-furlong race?

Do they weigh Hold Me Back's visual development from two to three? What visual skills to do these people possess? Who are the people who develop and arrive at these "numbers?"

Do the "sheets" take into account how Hold Me Back looks in his workouts?

His important, pre-Derby workouts?

Do they factor in his stride?

His efficiency?

His balance?

Do they add or deduct points for extra-powerful or exhaustingly weak gallop-outs?

What are the details that go into projecting a 10-furlong dirt race after running two nine-furlong races on fake plastic?

Were Hold Me Back's performances enhanced or impaired by any particular pace scenario?

Jockey error?

Track bias?

Post position?

Are there any instincts involved?

If one were to purchase a "sheet" product on a regular basis, isn't it entirely possible that one could discontinue the thought process, opting to become solely dependent on sheet "numbers?"

Isn't it also possible that one could opt to not employ a "sheet" product, thus opening his mind to a life of potential knowledge and information?

Assume, for a moment, that in 1989, we were introduced to two young, intelligent, passionate, infomartion-starved aspiring handicappers.

One went the way of the "sheets."

The other studied the horses and the people and the tracks and the infinite nuance the game offers.

Fast forward twenty years.

We're sitting in a simulcast with these two men, now in their 40s. We're two weeks out from the 2009 Kentucky Derby.

Two horses appear on the Churchill Downs video feed for a routine gallop.

One of the horses is Hold Me Back.

"Look at the energy. He looks magnificent," said one of the men.

"Which horse are you referring to?," asked the other man.

"Hold Me Back," he replies. "Physically, the horse looks incredible. He has that 'classic' look. Mott is great developing distance horses, maybe the best in the East. He doesn't abuse them. He gives them the time they need to develop, but this doesn't necessarily work well for the few Derby prospects he's had, since his patient style isn't compatible with the typical "rush" to get to the Derby."

"If the Derby were 1 1/4 miles on turf, and Hold Me Back hadn't raced in two months, he could be considered deadly."

"And Desormeaux," he continues. "He's very aggressive. He tends to move prematurely and carelessly wide."

"And the Derby pace," he adds. "It doesn't look like there's a lot of speed in there this year. It looks as if Kent will get stuck behind a slow pace and likely move too soon into fresh horses. Given the likely Mott-Kent plan of sitting back and making one run, as simulated in the Blue Grass, it's not likely to set up for him."

"What do you think?," he asks the man sitting across the table, who has been employing "sheets" over the past 20 years.

"Ummm ... I have it here, one minute," the man responds as he fumbles through a pile of papers with numbers on a graph.

"I went to a Derby seminar last week in Manhattan - $99. I have it all ... ummm... here it is ... ummm .... Hold Me Back ....


..... 6.

[goforgin]

Thanks for everyone's thoughts and analysis. Lots of plus's and delta's with Hold Me Back. I still like him a lot and plan to track him up to the race, check his workouts, etc. ":6: "

[Richie]

Jeff

Please relax, they asked for an opinion from a sheet player, and I gave my opinion as a sheet reader, no more no less. You appear agitated, good luck at the windows.

Rich

[jjm323]

Personally, I think Hold Me Back is too slow. You will get similar or better odds on horses that are actually fast enough to potentially win and is proven on dirt, including (in decending order) Musket Man, General Quarters, Win Willy or a real bomb like West Side Bernie.

[goforgin]

Personally, I think Hold Me Back is too slow. You will get similar or better odds on horses that are actually fast enough to potentially win and is proven on dirt, including (in decending order) Musket Man, General Quarters, Win Willy or a real bomb like West Side Bernie.
Thanks for your post. "Too slow" has been one of my main "delta's" with HMB, plus he'll probably be near last or dead-last crossing the finish line the first time. Curious to know if you're using "speed numbers or sheets" to draw your conclusion of too slow and others that are fast enough. Not being critical, just curious. In other words, are you using other "pace or figs" or an out of the box research I haven't seen yet? You can probably tell that I'm pretty high on this colt. Just covering all the bases. Boy-o-boy, just to see "2" workouts to gauge his affinity to the dirt or not. But, will probalby only get "1" 5F 1:02 and change at best. ":6:"

[sam i am]

Go for gin.

Don't let anyone talk you off a horse at big odds. if you like him step up to the window.
He should be a great price. there are lots to like about him (you can say that about 3/4 of the filed) Throw out his 2yo race on dirt, that race was so slow he never had a chance.
Mott doesn't work his horses fast, so that won't help you much.

I like this horse a little too and I hope EVERYONE hates him come derby day.


David