Profitable Selections?

[OverlayHunter]

A non-handicapper friend of mine forwarded this to me for my evaluation. I find a kernel of truth and realism coupled with misleading commentary and unlikely results. I'd be more blunt but I don't want to put PA in any uncomfortable position.

On the chance that I'm being too conservative in my effort to protect my friend's interests, I toss it out for your review and commentary. What doesn't seem right to you? And, in the interest of fairness, what seems right to you?

http://www.rprofitgenerator.com/

[Dave Schwartz]

I call and raise:

http://twitpwr.com:80/bQW/


Both of these services are based upon someone else's picks. I am not against that, however (from your link) when a guy says that he has people betting "hundreds of thousands per race" he loses all credibility with me.

I get the same feeling when someone tells me he has won 50 sports bets in a row. (Possibly a money-chase?)

[InFront]

A non-handicapper friend of mine forwarded this to me for my evaluation. I find a kernel of truth and realism coupled with misleading commentary and unlikely results. I'd be more blunt but I don't want to put PA in any uncomfortable position.

On the chance that I'm being too conservative in my effort to protect my friend's interests, I toss it out for your review and commentary. What doesn't seem right to you? And, in the interest of fairness, what seems right to you?

http://www.rprofitgenerator.com/ (http://www.rprofitgenerator.com/)


If this is the same Race Profit Generator software I tested awhile ago then this sales pitch letter is complete hogwash. As when testing any software database program I quickly build a 10,000 race database in it just to get a feel how the program performs as I did with RPG. It comes with many Auto Spot plays and many of it's own proprierity ratings and queried them all through the database. They all came back with terrible losing roi's even supposedly their best ones like PPPP or 1HPP, etc.

As far as the Rate Win or Modeling features once again when tested forwardly produced horrible results. This software reminds me of another program I tested years ago called Focus another garbage program. What both these programs do is take their own ratings and "tune or backfit" them based on settings you make such as by specific track, distance, class, sex, age, etc. This kind of crap even though sounds on the surface like a powerful logical way to play the horses never works out.

If you use no specific catagories and have a decent size database then nothing comes back profitable in tuned mode and not for the reason you may be thinking of. It's not cause every track, distance, class, etc. have differences and should be handicapped accordingly it's just that cause your sample race size is so large and meaningful that the Modeling or Tuning technique can't even "force" and find some combination or weighted factors to work.

Now of course if you add some set specific catagories then PAST profits begin to emerge and then what happens is as you add more specific breakdowns even more profitable plays come out but by that time your sample of races become so tiny and meaningless that of course any modeling or tuning feature can find tons of profitable formulas that worked on PAST RACES once the database already knew the results to work with. But due to this they also become meaningless which is why they never work forwardly that is on future races you are gonna bet. I did this kind of analyzing on both RPG, Focus and many other programs that were similar and forward tested all those great PAST PROFIT tuned/backfitted methods and once again proved my point that they did terrible and lost tons of paper money.

That is like if someone gave me a sample database of 1,000 races with results. Give me about an hour and I can simply create a spot play method that showed tons of profits over this exact past set of races. I'll even guarantee that it works, is easy and is accurate. But what I won't guarantee is that this very same method will work and profit over the next 1,000 set of races.

I would say if you are gonna spend any money on anything use it towards buying a decent software program that can first of course build a huge database with, has some decent built-in proprierity ratings and factors within it, then also has tons of capabilities and features allowing you to manipulate the data allowing you to QUERY all kinds of your own theories, ideas, concepts, formulas, algorithms, things you read about, etc. BOTH FORWARD and BACKWARD over this huge database or different databases to see what works or and what definitely doesn't.

It is amazing to me how people still buy so many racing products that at best produce rois in the range of .77 up to .86 and so on. You can do some simple handicapping by just looking at the track program and PPs of the horses and get the same LOSING longterms results as these fancy, complicated and some very expensive racing products that have been and still are out there available for sale.

[RonTiller]

Hey Dave, did you catch this in the ad?
If someone offered you a way to potentially earn an extra $200 - $5,000 per month for the rest of your life for only $595, would that interest you? Of course it would...
Didn't you ask a similar question on this very message board and get a very lukewarm response?

Ron Tiller
HDW

[OverlayHunter]

Ron, as much as I hate to be fair with this guy, I did double check and he did say "hundreds or thousands". Regarding your sports link - you're absolutely right - you did raise me substantially. By my calculations, that guy should own all of Vegas in a few more days. :lol: :lol:

INFRONT, the promotional material speaks of him sending the selections every night (or, at the latest, by 9 AM EST). That being the case, I assumed the software was either strictly for record keeping or, perhaps, record keeping plus some sort of progressive or % of bankroll wagering system.

If you look at the graphic of his program screen, it shows an "ROI on Bets" of 56.3%, "ROI on Bank" of 92.3% and a Win% of 42.6%. I don't see any reference to the number of wagers. Since he uses these numbers to demonstrate a profitable example I'm assuming the ROI numbers are supposed to translate into returns 1.56 and 1.92 per dollar. To have a group of horses win at a 42.6% clip implies to me they must be low priced favorites for the most part. Is it possible to get a high enough average mutuel or is there a wagering process that aids in getting those ROI's?

[Donnie]

Latest Update: 500 414 352 301 287 233 197 152 133 121 memberships left Thursday 16th of April 2009 02:01:33 PM Posted updates are done manually and are often behind the actual subscriptions. Please don't be upset if you come back to find they sold out since your last visit. Act now and you won’t be disappointed.

...from the ad.

There must be a BOATLOAD of you people using this out there!! Good to see that at least the sales seem to be slowing down! And imagine this - there is a copy for sale on Ebay right now!! This has GOT to help THAT person's sale!!!

[Dave Schwartz]

OverlayHunter,

Thanks for getting my joke.

Seriously, everytime I see one of these ads, just for a split second, I think, "What if it's true?" LOL - Then I come to my senses.


Dave

[Speed Figure]

Is this the same program?? http://quickplayhorseracingsoftware.com/RPG.html

[OverlayHunter]

Speed Figure - It looks like we definitely have 2 programs that have the same name. The program you provided the link for has Tom Console has the author and the one I provided has Bill Diamond as the seller. Both screens are entirely different and it looks like Console's version may be the IN FRONT was alluding to since it appears the handicappers selects the wagers from a group of spot plays that the software produces.

Bill Diamond supplies the picks each day. From his ad copy: "You do not have to spend any time analyzing the Racing Form to come up with your own selections. . I will do this for you as part of your membership. These are the same selections I bet every single week. I send them to you via SMS, so you receive them right on your phone" That's why I think the software is for record keeping and/or used as part of a wagering approach.

Diamond charges "only" $599 for the software and 3 months of picks. The monthly charge for picks after that is $66. He provides a guarantee and I've tried to think of how he can weasel on it given what it implies but also given its less than precise language.

[dartman51]

If this is the same Race Profit Generator software I tested awhile ago then this sales pitch letter is complete hogwash. As when testing any software database program I quickly build a 10,000 race database in it just to get a feel how the program performs as I did with RPG. It comes with many Auto Spot plays and many of it's own proprierity ratings and queried them all through the database. They all came back with terrible losing roi's even supposedly their best ones like PPPP or 1HPP, etc.

As far as the Rate Win or Modeling features once again when tested forwardly produced horrible results. This software reminds me of another program I tested years ago called Focus another garbage program. What both these programs do is take their own ratings and "tune or backfit" them based on settings you make such as by specific track, distance, class, sex, age, etc. This kind of crap even though sounds on the surface like a powerful logical way to play the horses never works out.

If you use no specific catagories and have a decent size database then nothing comes back profitable in tuned mode and not for the reason you may be thinking of. It's not cause every track, distance, class, etc. have differences and should be handicapped accordingly it's just that cause your sample race size is so large and meaningful that the Modeling or Tuning technique can't even "force" and find some combination or weighted factors to work.

Now of course if you add some set specific catagories then PAST profits begin to emerge and then what happens is as you add more specific breakdowns even more profitable plays come out but by that time your sample of races become so tiny and meaningless that of course any modeling or tuning feature can find tons of profitable formulas that worked on PAST RACES once the database already knew the results to work with. But due to this they also become meaningless which is why they never work forwardly that is on future races you are gonna bet. I did this kind of analyzing on both RPG, Focus and many other programs that were similar and forward tested all those great PAST PROFIT tuned/backfitted methods and once again proved my point that they did terrible and lost tons of paper money.

That is like if someone gave me a sample database of 1,000 races with results. Give me about an hour and I can simply create a spot play method that showed tons of profits over this exact past set of races. I'll even guarantee that it works, is easy and is accurate. But what I won't guarantee is that this very same method will work and profit over the next 1,000 set of races.

I would say if you are gonna spend any money on anything use it towards buying a decent software program that can first of course build a huge database with, has some decent built-in proprierity ratings and factors within it, then also has tons of capabilities and features allowing you to manipulate the data allowing you to QUERY all kinds of your own theories, ideas, concepts, formulas, algorithms, things you read about, etc. BOTH FORWARD and BACKWARD over this huge database or different databases to see what works or and what definitely doesn't.

It is amazing to me how people still buy so many racing products that at best produce rois in the range of .77 up to .86 and so on. You can do some simple handicapping by just looking at the track program and PPs of the horses and get the same LOSING longterms results as these fancy, complicated and some very expensive racing products that have been and still are out there available for sale.


Not the same software. The one you tested is Tom Console's program.

[InFront]

Yes the one I throughly tested was by Console called Race Profit Generator. This is one thing I didn't understand in this ad. It seems while it does state it is a "software wagering program" it is also a "tout selection service" but with the exact same name as Console's program??? Or is this a guy uisng the same RPG software to make his picks for his selection service?

In anycase picking 42% winners with a huge roi as this on FLAT BETS. Or even if he was using some nutty progressive type of betting system. Maybe I should try and sell ketchup to a lady in white (LOL).

[MONEY]

My favorite part of the sales pitch is the quote by Dr. Robert Anthony.

"he decided that he would offer his services to a maximum of 500 members. :lol: That's less than 10 per State.":lol:

money

[Nitro]

A non-handicapper friend of mine forwarded this to me for my evaluation. I find a kernel of truth and realism coupled with misleading commentary and unlikely results. I'd be more blunt but I don't want to put PA in any uncomfortable position.

On the chance that I'm being too conservative in my effort to protect my friend's interests, I toss it out for your review and commentary. What doesn't seem right to you? And, in the interest of fairness, what seems right to you?Come on fellas! This the oldest scam in the book. Of course he won’t reveal his selection process! He just picks out the top 4 or 5 entries with the lowest M/L from a number of clear-cut races. One of these entries from this group will generally win at a rate of 75 to 80%. Then he gives different groups of selections to each of his members each day. Some will win sporadically. Some will win in streaks (as he admits), but most of the time some of his members will be doing better then others on any given day.

He could also be giving out these groups of varying selections with a profit margin in mind based on the M/L of each selection in the group. If 2 out of 8 win you just might be lucky enough to break even. Some days maybe you’ll do better then others. Who knows? That’s why you need the money management program!

If the guarantee is really legitimate, then he already knows in advance about how many members will fail and probably what percentage of them will actually test the validity of the guarantee. In the meantime, he’s got all of the original membership fees and still collecting money each month from those who are winning something. Of course with the 500-member quota never being reached there’s more money coming in from new members. A portion of this money could of course be used to satisfy those guarantees.

A good insurance actuary could probably develop a beautiful model that would enable someone to plan out a decent scenario to produce some nice profits and very little risk.