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stavo
04-15-2009, 09:33 AM
I have been recently working on my own ratings for laying the american races, but after a while stumbled on this winning system instead lol (but i think we have all been there ) anyway gawd knows how it will go from here on? here are my top two rated horses for each race sometimes the second rated is a better value bet? and if there is no more than 1 point roughly between them then this may be a way to go for long term profit? but this is just only going to be paper traded by me for atleast two or three months atleast before i dive in with real money!

AQUEDUCT

Selection Rating

R1 waatababe 300.9
newschannel 298.6

R3 kissa mellisa 358.6
calling my colours 357.7

R5 courting elaine 324.9
lily dilly 270.9

R7 littlewiseguy 368.9
mr bourbon street 368.5

R8 you asked 370.6
say toba sandy 360.9

TAMPA BAY

R1 xcalak 287.4
little skieletol 279.5

R3 psychic star 308.5
vicar in the house 307.9

R5 it is the way 312.3
courting cat 307.8

T PARADISE

R2 pendleton 291.9
smarty matt 183.1

R7 kindacatchy 316.8
quaker run 308.9

R8 sports tour 320.7
baron h 309

R9 cowboysandindians 284.5
happholiday majil 267.7

cj's dad
04-15-2009, 11:08 AM
for those of us who like to track these things, can you please post the entries number ??

stavo
04-15-2009, 01:00 PM
for those of us who like to track these things, can you please post the entries number ??

Hi cj's dad, as its a bit late in the day to alter things i will start tomorrows ratings with there post entrie's number, also cant seam to find the edit button?
cheers.

stavo
04-16-2009, 05:16 AM
Results

AQUEDUCT

Selection Rating

R1 waatababe 200.9 L :(
newschannel 198.6 W .45 :)

R3 kissa mellisa 258.6 W 1.75 :)
calling my colours 257.7 2 1.15 Exacta $10.60 :cool:

R5 courting elaine 224.9 W .75 :)
lily dilly 170.9 scratched

R7 littlewiseguy 268.9 L :(
mr bourbon street 268.5 sratched

R8 you asked 270.6 L :(
say toba sandy 260.9 L :(

TAMPA BAY

R1 xcalak 187.4 L :(
little skieletol 179.5 W 1.7 :)

R3 psychic star 208.5 L :(
vicar in the house 207.9 L :(

R5 it is the way 212.3 L :(
courting cat 207.8 W 2.1 :)

T PARADISE

R2 pendleton 191.9 W 2.4 :)
smarty matt 183.1 2 2.5 Exacta $26.80 :cool:

R7 kindacatchy 216.8 W .9 :)
quaker run 208.9 L

R8 sports tour 220.7 L :(
baron h 209 L :(

R9 cowboysandindians 184.5 W 1.2 :)
happholiday majil 167.7 L :(

8 winners and 13 losers 5 "top rated" ok prices are a little short! but with 2 exacta's returning at $37.40 = $17.40 profit from 10 races at $2 a chuck (2 with scratched entry's)is not a bad return me thinks :) may be if the selections remain as short? exacta's could be the way to go? anyone's thoughts?
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stavo
04-16-2009, 05:35 AM
My mistake ie, 8 winners 14 losers not 13! where is the edit button?

stavo
04-16-2009, 10:02 AM
Here are my top 2 rated for each race today! complete with there entry numbers, i have left the ratings out as it saves on time.

AQUEDUCT

R1. 6 MY FAIR EL
1A HOPE STREET

R3. 2 INDIAN WAY
5 BETTE TO WIN

R4. 1 KARAKORUM ON BLACK
6 FLO’S HONOR

R5. 1 CALLMETONY
7 BRAHMS LULLABY

R6. 4 EASTERN PRIME
7 DREAMIN’OFMARYLAND

GULF PARK

R4. 2 HOPEFORTHEBEST
3 STARSHIP STEVE

R6. 3 PIRATE KING
5 ODE TO ROY

R8. 5 MATCHLESS ORINDA
4 PIOUS ASHLEY

HAWTHORN

R1. 2 RUN FOR SILVER
3 PURPLE PRIZE

R3. 1 FARAWAY KINGDOM
2 LADY LEPRECHAUN

R4. 4 THUNDERIZED
5 SILVERBDANCING

R5. 4 WINDS DUE EAST
2 SPILLOVER

R7. 6 OUT OF THE MOOD
2 YONATOWKA

R8. 4 SPEEDY GLADYS JAM
3 PENNY'S TIME

stavo
04-17-2009, 06:10 AM
Results

AQUEDUCT

R1. 6 MY FAIR EL 2nd [:(]
1A HOPE STREET 0 [:(]

R3. 2 INDIAN WAY W .35 [:)]
5 BETTE TO WIN 0 [:(]

R4. 1 KARAKORUM ON BLACK scratched
6 FLO’S HONOR 2nd [:(]

R5. 1 CALLMETONY W .55 [:)]
7 BRAHMS LULLABY scratched

R6. 4 EASTERN PRIME 3rd [:(]
7 DREAMIN’OFMARYLAND 2nd [:(]

GULF PARK

R4. 2 HOPEFORTHEBEST W 2.8 [:)]
3 STARSHIP STEVE 3rd [:(]

R6. 3 PIRATE KING 0 [:(]
5 ODE TO ROY W 2.6 [:)]

R8. 5 MATCHLESS ORINDA 2nd [:(]
4 PIOUS ASHLEY W 2.6 [:)] a quinella perhaps ?

HAWTHORN

R1. 2 RUN FOR SILVER W 2.1 [:)]
3 PURPLE PRIZE 0 [:(]

R3. 1 FARAWAY KINGDOM 3rd [:(]
2 LADY LEPRECHAUN 0 [:(]

R4. 4 THUNDERIZED W 1.6 [:)]
5 SILVERBDANCING 2nd [:(] exacta $14.00 :cool:

R5. 4 WINDS DUE EAST W 3.7 [:)]
2 SPILLOVER 0 [:(]

R7. 6 OUT OF THE MOOD 0 [:(]
2 YONATOWKA scratched

R8. 4 SPEEDY GLADYS JAM 0 [:(]
3 PENNY'S TIME 2nd [:(]


8 winners 17 losers - .9 sp! betfair +20% = + 2.3 profit :)
only one exacta = $14.00 with a couple near misses ?

stavo
04-17-2009, 07:56 AM
Busy day may only be able to put this up today will see?

AQUEDUCT

R1 3 COOL THE ECONOMY
5 AMBLING ROSE

R2 1 TRIPLE GLORY
3 PERFECT PRECISION

R3 1 MALIBU PRAYER
5 CREMA D’ORO

R4 5 SOUPER BUTTERFLY
4 DONNA’S SANDEE

R5 6 WIN FOR FUN
2 ECLECTIC

R6 1 CRIMSONS GOLD
1A HELLO GOLD

R7 4 CONFIRMONDI
6 SURFING IAN

R8 3 BOOWOOGEEMALIA
6 CHERNOBYL PRINCESS

R9 1 CENTURY GOLD
5 ROMA DI NOTTE

stavo
04-17-2009, 02:07 PM
Entry numbers only

Santa anita

R1. 7,2

R2. 2,1

R3. 2,6

R4. 3,1a

R5. 1,8

R6. 9,6

R7. 1,6

R8. 1,8

stavo
04-18-2009, 05:04 AM
AQUEDUCT

R1 3 COOL THE ECONOMY 3rd [:(]
5 AMBLING ROSE 0 [:(]

R2 1 TRIPLE GLORY 3rd [:(]
3 PERFECT PRECISION W 2.5 [:)]

R3 1 MALIBU PRAYER W .95 [:)]
5 CREMA D’ORO 2nd [:(] exacta $19.20 :cool:

R4 5 SOUPER BUTTERFLY 2nd [:(]
4 DONNA’S SANDEE 0 [:(]

R5 6 WIN FOR FUN 3rd [:(]
2 ECLECTIC W 1.7 [:)]

R6 1 CRIMSONS GOLD 2nd [:(]
1A HELLO GOLD scratched

R7 4 CONFIRMONDI .50 W [:)]
6 SURFING IAN 0 [:(]

R8 3 BOOWOOGEEMALIA W 1.35 [:)]
6 CHERNOBYL PRINCESS 0 [:(]

R9 1 CENTURY GOLD W 7.2 [:)]
5 ROMAN DI NOTE 0 [:(]

stavo
04-18-2009, 05:10 AM
Santa anita

R1. 7,2 W 2.3 [:)] 0 [:(]

R2. 2,1 3rd [:(] scratched

R3. 2,6 2nd [:(] scratched

R4. 3,1a 2nd [:(] 3rd [:(]

R5. 1,8 2nd [:(] 3rd [:(]

R6. 9,6 2nd [:(] 0 [:(]

R7. 1,6 0 [:(] W 2.2 [:)]

R8. 1,8 0 [:(] W 4.7 [:)]

9 winners returning sp 23.4 + 20% betfair=28.08 with 22 losers=6.08 profit ok not huge but a profit none the less :) with 7 2nd places it could have been a lot more? but as they say a near miss is as good as a mile in this game.

stavo
04-18-2009, 07:43 AM
AQUEDUCT

R1. 7-4


R2. 5-4


R3. 5-4


R4. 3-6


R5. 8-9


R6. 2-7


R7. 8-9


R8. 9-3


R9. 5-4


R10. 9-3


TAMPA BAY

R1. 4-3
3

R2. 8-9


R3. 6-2


R4. 7-6


R5. 11-4


R6. 14-5


R7. 11-10


R8. 10-6


R9. 10-6

stavo
04-19-2009, 08:40 AM
Results

AQUEDUCT

R1. 7-4 0-W 1.65


R2. 5-4 W .8-0


R3. 5-4 W 1.35-0


R4. 3-6 2nd-W 4.7 possible quinella ?


R5. 8-9 2nd-0


R6. 2-7 0-0


R7. 8-9 3rd-W 6.6


R8. 9-3 W 1.35-2nd exacta $13.20 :cool:


R9. 5-4 W 1.15-scratched


R10. 9-3 2nd-W 9.2 possible quinella ?


TAMPA BAY

R1. 4-3 W 3.9-3rd


R2. 8-9 0-2nd


R3. 6-2 0-0


R4. 7-6 3rd-2nd


R5. 11-4 0-2nd


R6. 14-5 scratched-2nd


R7. 11-10 0-scratched


R8. 10-6 W 1.5-0


R9. 10-6 2nd-0

10 winners at 32.2 sp + 20% betfair = 38.66 - 25 losers = 13.64 profit :cool: could have been more? if i had not bothered with tampa! turf races could seam a bit more tricky then the dirt in the usa?

stavo
04-19-2009, 08:48 AM
No selections today sundays is a day off! have to rest the brain :D also i have had to cut down on the smilies so results will look like the previous layout so to speak.

formula_2002
04-19-2009, 10:20 AM
No selections today sundays is a day off! have to rest the brain :D also i have had to cut down on the smilies so results will look like the previous layout so to speak.
i LIKE THAT 20% BETFAIR. WHAT IS THAT ABOUT, AND WHAT IS SP?

THANKS

stavo
04-19-2009, 05:49 PM
i LIKE THAT 20% BETFAIR. WHAT IS THAT ABOUT, AND WHAT IS SP?

THANKS

Hi formula-2002,sp means starting price its, the standard return price you get from the bookmakers like ladbrokes etc,the odds i quote on these results i get from equibase results cards i dont know if this is the pool price's or something? if so perhaps i should say that? i dont know perhaps you can advise me please? the 20% betfair is on average 20%higher odds than you would otherwise get from bookmakers sp and these pools (if thats what equibase are referring to?) i have had sometimes 50+% higher odds on there compared to this sp and pools in the usa, its because its a betting exchange you put your price up what you want and wait for another player to match it on the otherside whether your backing or laying, if your realistic it always gets matched ;) cheers.

senortout
04-19-2009, 06:09 PM
Course, you may not be in the USA, but I didn't think it was legal to use Betfair here....

ooops hold on I see you do have the U.K. address...sorry

stavo
04-19-2009, 07:21 PM
Hi senortout, yes i am in the uk and i had heard that betfair and the other exchanges were not permitted to be used from the usa but i was not sure?

formula_2002
04-19-2009, 08:22 PM
Hi formula-2002,sp means starting price its, the standard return price you get from the bookmakers like ladbrokes etc,the odds i quote on these results i get from equibase results cards i dont know if this is the pool price's or something? if so perhaps i should say that? i dont know perhaps you can advise me please? the 20% betfair is on average 20%higher odds than you would otherwise get from bookmakers sp and these pools (if thats what equibase are referring to?) i have had sometimes 50+% higher odds on there compared to this sp and pools in the usa, its because its a betting exchange you put your price up what you want and wait for another player to match it on the otherside whether your backing or laying, if your realistic it always gets matched ;) cheers.
Hi.
The equibase results charts indicate the dollar odds to one for each horse.
the win place and show payouts are based on a $2.00 bet.
So a horse that pays $6.00 to win has dollar odds of 2-1.
what is the total book percentage for the bookmakers like ladbrokes
At aquduct it's about 1.18+.

thanks
book percentage = sum 1/(odds+1) for all horses in a single race.

stavo
04-20-2009, 01:40 PM
Hawthorn

R3. 4-2

R4. 6-2

R7. 9-1

R8. 1-2

stavo
04-21-2009, 03:10 AM
Hawthorn

R3. 4-2 scratched 3rd

R4. 6-2 0 2nd

R7. 9-1 2nd 0

R8. 1-2 W 2.5 0

1 winner +20% bfair-=3-6 losers= -3

stavo
04-21-2009, 11:33 AM
Selections

PHILIDELPHIA

R1. 5-3

R2. 5-6

R3. 4-5

R4. 4-6

R5. 1-8

R6. 3-2

R7. 8-4

R8. 1-2

R9. 2-5

R10. 9-7

TAMPA BAY

R1. 6-2

R2. 4-2

R3. 12-9

R4. 8-1

R5. 4-6

R6. 2-12

R7. 7-6

R8. 3-1

R9. 3-7

R10. 5-9

stavo
04-21-2009, 11:41 AM
Hi.
The equibase results charts indicate the dollar odds to one for each horse.
the win place and show payouts are based on a $2.00 bet.
So a horse that pays $6.00 to win has dollar odds of 2-1.
what is the total book percentage for the bookmakers like ladbrokes
At aquduct it's about 1.18+.

thanks
book percentage = sum 1/(odds+1) for all horses in a single race.

Hi, i really dont know what ladbrokes book percentage would be and suppose they would not either apart from (i think) when betting on usa races its exactly the same as the meet's there, i think they have a deal going with the racecourses but i dont know what that is? if that makes any sense formula 2002 :confused: cheers.

stavo
04-22-2009, 03:45 AM
PHILIDELPHIA

R1. 5-3 2nd W 2.1

R2. 5-6 3rd scratched

R3. 4-5 0 scratched

R4. 4-6 0 W 2.1

R5. 1-8 0 0

R6. 3-2 0 2nd

R7. 8-4 0 2nd

R8. 1-2 scratched 0

R9. 2-5 0 W 5.7

R10. 9-7 0 2nd

TAMPA BAY

R1. 6-2 0 0

R2. 4-2 0 2nd

R3. 12-9 W 6.4 0

R4. 8-1 0 0

R5. 4-6 0 0

R6. 2-12 0 scratched

R7. 7-6 0 0

R8. 3-1 2nd W 7.6

R9. 3-7 3rd 0

R10. 5-9 0 0


Only 5 winners=23.9+20%bfair=28.68 31 losers= -2.32

stavo
04-22-2009, 11:43 AM
AQUEDUCT

R1. 5-1

R2. 1-2

R3. 2-1a

R4. 4-9

R5. 9-3

R6. 8-9

R7. 14-6

R8. 3-5

R9. 6-3

stavo
04-23-2009, 06:04 AM
AQUEDUCT

R1. 5-1 W .25 scratched

R2. 1-2 W 1.85 0

R3. 2-1a 2nd W 1.4

R4. 4-9 0 0

R5. 9-3 scratched W 1.4

R6. 8-9 2nd W 2.85

R7. 14-6 2nd scratched

R8. 3-5 2nd 0

R9. 6-3 scratched scratched

5 winners =7.44+20%bfair =9.3 -8 losers=1.3 profit

stavo
04-23-2009, 09:39 AM
Aqueduct

R1. 2-5

R3. 4-1

R4. 5-7

R5. 6-4

R6. 1-3

R.7 3-1

R.8 1-8

R9. 5-ae

stavo
04-24-2009, 03:19 AM
Aqueduct

R1. 2-5 0 0

R3. 4-1 0 3

R4. 5-7 2nd W 2.8

R5. 6-4 0 0

R6. 1-3 0 W2.35

R.7 3-1 scratched W 7.3

R.8 1-8 W 3.05 2nd exacta $26.00

R9. 5-ae 0 scratched

4 winners=15.5+20%bfair=18.6-10 losers= 8.6 profit :)

stavo
04-25-2009, 06:57 AM
AQUEDUCT

R1. 7-8

R2. 6-4

R3. 7-4

R4. 5-3

R6. 3-6

R7. 2-1

R8. 3-5

R9. 5-1

R10. 5-3

PHILIDELPHIA

R1. 3-1

R2. 4-7

R3. 4-1

R4. 4-2

R5. 5-4

R6. 7-6

R7. 1-5

R8. 1-2

R9. 6-7

stavo
04-26-2009, 05:04 AM
AQUEDUCT

R1. 7-8 2nd 0

R2. 6-4 3rd W 1.85

R3. 7-4 scratched W 1.00

R4. 5-3 0 3rd

R6. 3-6 2nd 0

R7. 2-1 2nd W.95 quinella ?

R8. 3-5 0 0

R9. 5-1 W3.3 2nd exacta $23.00

R10. 5-3 2nd W 1.6 Quinella ?

PHILIDELPHIA

R1. 3-1 3rd 0

R2. 4-7 0 3rd

R3. 4-1 2nd 3rd

R4. 4-2 0 0

R5. 5-4 0 0

R6. 7-6 W 3.3 2nd exacta $28.40

R7. 1-5 3rd 2nd

R8. 1-2 2nd W.90 quinella ?

R9. 6-7 0 0

7 winners =12.9+20%bfaif=15.48-28losers = -12.52 bad day :(