proximity
04-15-2009, 05:04 AM
proximity odds template for caveman handicappers.......
lately i've kinda gotten away from using my computer in assisting me in the odds making process and have gravitated towards the "template" idea featured in steve fierro's book (4 quarters of horse investing). when going through this process i usually find it rather easy to select my four contenders and rank them in order, but often times struggle when trying to select the proper line from mr fierro's templates. i noted that i could usually state my opinions on the differences between a-b, b-c and c-d without much trouble, but often struggled with mr fierro's first question: how strong do i feel about my top contender?
so i decided to de-emphasize that question and just concentrate on the comparisons between the contenders. it occurred to me that i could design my own template that could create a numerical odds line from these verbal opinions about the differences between the contenders. this is a work in progress and maybe (probably) you'll disagree with the numbers in my template, but perhaps you can steal the concept and create a template of your own.
for starters i decided to eliminate ties. i had to separate my four contenders. next i decided to begin with having only three possible gaps between any two contenders: close, medium (normal), and far. this would give me 27 template possibilities (similar to steve fierro). more ambitious pen and paper (caveman) handicappers may wish to inclued ties and/or more "gap" levels between their contenders. my 27 possibilities would range from ccc (each contender "close" to the one below it) to fff (each contender "far" ahead of the contender below it).
ccc........3--1...4--1...9--2...6--1
ccm.......3--1...7--2...9--2...7--1
ccf........5--2...7--2...9--2...8--1
cmc.......5--2...7--2...6--1...7--1
cmm......5--2...7--2...6--1...8--1
cmf.......5--2...7--2...5--1...9--1
cfc.......5--2...7--2...7--1...8--1
cfm.......5--2...3--1...7--1...9--1
cff........5--2...3--1...6--1...10--1
mcc.......5--2...9--2...5--1...6--1
mcm......5--2...9--2...5--1...7--1
mcf........2--1...4--1...5--1...8--1
mmc......2--1...4--1...6--1...7--1
mmm.....2--1...4--1...6--1...8--1
mmf......2--1...4--1...6--1...9--1
mfc......9--5...4--1...7--1...8--1
mfm.....9--5...4--1...7--1...9--1
mff......9--5...7--2...7--1...10--1
fcc......9--5...5--1...6--1...7--1
fcm......9--5...5--1...6--1...8--1
fcf.......9--5...5--1...6--1...9--1
fmc......9--5...9--2...7--1...8--1
fmm......9--5...9--2...6--1...8--1
fmf.......8--5...9--2...6--1...9--1
ffc.......8--5...9--2...7--1...8--1
ffm......8--5...9--2...7--1...9--1
fff.......8--5...9--2...7--1...10--1
using this template will usually give me a prett good "first draft" odds line on a race..... one that doesn't require too much adjusting to match my feelings about the race. just thought i'd post it to help anybody who liked mr fierro's book but is still uncomfortable in ultimately deciding which line on his template to select. ....
lately i've kinda gotten away from using my computer in assisting me in the odds making process and have gravitated towards the "template" idea featured in steve fierro's book (4 quarters of horse investing). when going through this process i usually find it rather easy to select my four contenders and rank them in order, but often times struggle when trying to select the proper line from mr fierro's templates. i noted that i could usually state my opinions on the differences between a-b, b-c and c-d without much trouble, but often struggled with mr fierro's first question: how strong do i feel about my top contender?
so i decided to de-emphasize that question and just concentrate on the comparisons between the contenders. it occurred to me that i could design my own template that could create a numerical odds line from these verbal opinions about the differences between the contenders. this is a work in progress and maybe (probably) you'll disagree with the numbers in my template, but perhaps you can steal the concept and create a template of your own.
for starters i decided to eliminate ties. i had to separate my four contenders. next i decided to begin with having only three possible gaps between any two contenders: close, medium (normal), and far. this would give me 27 template possibilities (similar to steve fierro). more ambitious pen and paper (caveman) handicappers may wish to inclued ties and/or more "gap" levels between their contenders. my 27 possibilities would range from ccc (each contender "close" to the one below it) to fff (each contender "far" ahead of the contender below it).
ccc........3--1...4--1...9--2...6--1
ccm.......3--1...7--2...9--2...7--1
ccf........5--2...7--2...9--2...8--1
cmc.......5--2...7--2...6--1...7--1
cmm......5--2...7--2...6--1...8--1
cmf.......5--2...7--2...5--1...9--1
cfc.......5--2...7--2...7--1...8--1
cfm.......5--2...3--1...7--1...9--1
cff........5--2...3--1...6--1...10--1
mcc.......5--2...9--2...5--1...6--1
mcm......5--2...9--2...5--1...7--1
mcf........2--1...4--1...5--1...8--1
mmc......2--1...4--1...6--1...7--1
mmm.....2--1...4--1...6--1...8--1
mmf......2--1...4--1...6--1...9--1
mfc......9--5...4--1...7--1...8--1
mfm.....9--5...4--1...7--1...9--1
mff......9--5...7--2...7--1...10--1
fcc......9--5...5--1...6--1...7--1
fcm......9--5...5--1...6--1...8--1
fcf.......9--5...5--1...6--1...9--1
fmc......9--5...9--2...7--1...8--1
fmm......9--5...9--2...6--1...8--1
fmf.......8--5...9--2...6--1...9--1
ffc.......8--5...9--2...7--1...8--1
ffm......8--5...9--2...7--1...9--1
fff.......8--5...9--2...7--1...10--1
using this template will usually give me a prett good "first draft" odds line on a race..... one that doesn't require too much adjusting to match my feelings about the race. just thought i'd post it to help anybody who liked mr fierro's book but is still uncomfortable in ultimately deciding which line on his template to select. ....