Exotics in The Derby

[Burls]

I'm thinking of going with:

Quality Road
I Want Revenge
Pioneer Of The Nile
Desert Party

$ 1 EXB = $12
$ 1 TBX = $24
$ 1 SBX = $24

[Bettowin]

I'm thinking of going with:

Quality Road
I Want Revenge
Pioneer Of The Nile
Desert Party

$ 1 EXB = $12
$ 1 TBX = $24
$ 1 SBX = $24


Friesan Fire is going to hurt you in those bets. Hard to be setting bets this much time before the actual race. I need to see the works at Churchill, the horses themselves the week of the Derby and that day and post positions to mention a few things.

[cj's dad]

I'm thinking of going with:

Quality Road
I Want Revenge
Pioneer Of The Nile
Desert Party

$ 1 EXB = $12
$ 1 TBX = $24
$ 1 SBX = $24

All of your pix on paper are solid; the problem is that there is always ONE bomb that jumps up and bites you in the a_ _ in the 2nd or 3rd spot.

[Tread]

Desert Party is not solid on paper. At least on Thorograph paper. He is MANY lengths behind several of the main contenders.

[Shelby]

All of your pix on paper are solid; the problem is that there is always ONE bomb that jumps up and bites you in the a_ _ in the 2nd or 3rd spot.

Just ONE bomb? :lol: Bet with me a while and you'll have more than that :lol:

[cj's dad]

Just ONE bomb? :lol: Bet with me a while and you'll have more than that :lol:


I know- I was keeping it simple - check out the year Monarchos won and the 2nd & 3rd place horses and their odds.

[Shelby]

I know- I was keeping it simple - check out the year Monarchos won and the 2nd & 3rd place horses and their odds.


Yeah *sigh* wish I could get a tri like that!

[Bettowin]

Yeah *sigh* wish I could get a tri like that!

Bet your birthday.
Bet you area code.
Bet your weight. (hopefully the 1 doesn't scratch)

You get the drift:)

[CBedo]

Usually for me, the Derby is not a good betting race, but it does set up some good bets down the road. Last year was an aberration though. If Big Brown was going to win, I thought it was pretty straight forward to throw out all the other close up/speed types (thought he would cook them), and then just play all the closers under him in the exotics.

Out of all my years watching the Derby (Seattle Slew was the first I really remember), I think I've picked the winner not more than four or five times, and last year was the first year I ever cashed an exotic ticket (exactas and tris).

This year looks like back to normal for me. My hope is that the best horses don't get good trips and something goofy happens. Then I can make more money on the real horses coming back!

[cj's dad]

My hope is that the best horses don't get good trips and something goofy happens. Then I can make more money on the real horses coming back!

Hansel should ring a bell !! Fave in the KD - finished 10th - then wins Preakness and pays $20.20

[Bettowin]

The Kentucky Derby is a perfect race to get a bunch of friends together, many who don't bet horses anyway, and pool your money. Play a $504 trifecta wheel such as:


1,2,3,4,5,6,7
with
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9
with
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10

10 people $50 a pop and have a good time:) Who knows you might hit a $10K tri or better? Makes for a good party or a good time at the old sports bar.

Not saying to do it exactly this way but you get the picture.

[cj's dad]

I and 4 others did a similar thing in 2001 with Monarchos and several others at a cost of maybe $12 each in an exacta and with Invisible Ink 2nd the Exacta paid over $1000 for $2.


You are right, it is a good way to have a shot at a score. The race is nearly impossible to h'cap, IMO.

[Burls]

Thanks for all your comments.
I like my list now, but, of course, there are so many things up in the air.
Most importantly, for me, what will the odds be at 5 MTP?
I'm always averse to boxing the chalk in an Exotic, although in a field as big as the KD, I still might go for it.
Then there's Quality Road's foot situation. I am under the impression that if a substantial foot problem remains, QR won't be running.
The 'if' for I Want Revenge will be whether he can get to the front in a Kentucky Derby sized group; especially with 3 Pressers up front, Quality Road, Pioneer of the Nile, and Frisian Fire.
With Pioneer Of The Nile, there's always the question whether his prowess on synthetic tracks will translate to the dirt.
Desert Party, I must admit, I'm most unfamiliar with.
At this point, I'm guessing that Frisian Fire just won't have the ooomph to deal with these ones at the end.

In any case, the finish looks to be exciting.

[Bettowin]

I and 4 others did a similar thing in 2001 with Monarchos and several others at a cost of maybe $12 each in an exacta and with Invisible Ink 2nd the Exacta paid over $1000 for $2.


You are right, it is a good way to have a shot at a score. The race is nearly impossible to h'cap, IMO.

The race is much easier to handicap than most Breeder's Cup races and you get great odds on many contenders. I haven't really hit the Derby for a huge score yet but this is the year:)

I will mention that leaving Medaglia D'Oro off my ticket in the 2002 Belmont cost me about $25K in the 2001. I did a 3 horse tri box with Sarava, Sunday Break and Magic Weisner. My friend and I didn't talk about a trifecta before the race and he bet MDO, Sunday Break and Magic W. ARGGHHHHHHHHH!! I still have the ticket stapled to the results just to look at and relive the agony:)


They finished:

Sarava
MDO
Sunday Break
Magic W

Trifecta $25,209
Super $145,334

Had we (just two of us) bet our picks together we would have been very happy campers. Imagine if you spread a bunch of money around the tri or super and hit with a bunch of friends?

PS - I have since forgiven MDO and really like his offspring:)

[Watcher]

The Kentucky Derby is a perfect race to get a bunch of friends together, many who don't bet horses anyway, and pool your money. Play a $504 trifecta wheel such as:


1,2,3,4,5,6,7
with
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9
with
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10

10 people $50 a pop and have a good time:) Who knows you might hit a $10K tri or better? Makes for a good party or a good time at the old sports bar.

Not saying to do it exactly this way but you get the picture.
Threw a party last year with $440 in the pool. The group decided it would be best to put it all one one horse, and for me to choose that horse. I spent the entire party pulling my hair out trying to pick...

Finally said "screw it" and went with BB at 3-1. Turned out well.

However, for this years party, I think doing a trifecta with the pool money would be fun!

[Watcher]

2008 Kentucky Derby

$2 Exacta $141.60
$2 Trifecta $3,445.60

2007 Kentucky Derby

$2 Exacta $101.80
$2 Trifecta $440.00

2006 Kentucky Derby

$2 Exacta $587.00
$2 Trifecta $11,418.40

2005 Kentucky Derby

$2 Exacta $9,814.80
$2 Trifecta $133,134.80

2004 Kentucky Derby

$2 Exacta $65.20
$2 Trifecta $987.60

2003 Kentucky Derby

$2 Exacta
$2 Trifecta

2002 Kentucky Derby

$2 Exacta $1,300.80
$2 Trifecta $18,373.20

2001 Kentucky Derby

$2 Exacta $1,229.00
$2 Trifecta $12,238.40

2000 Kentucky Derby

$2 Exacta $60
$2 Trifecta $435.00

[JustRalph]

This might be a record for earliest Derby exotics ever posted at PA

[riskman]

Lets see. Pioneer has never run on dirt, Quality Road has a quarter crack in right hind hoof, I Want Revenge has not beaten anyone of note coming east after winning once in six races in CA. They say the colt did not like synthetics. IWR did beat West side Bernie who in seven starts ,won 2x and has not won since last Sept. I saw IWR run in the Wood--I was right at the finish line--exciting race for sure.

Then there is Dunkirk, who will be overbet, Friesan Fire has won all three of his races this year, Musket Man whose only loss in six starts was to General Quarters the winner of the Blue Grass. Papa Clem half a length behind Pioneer of Nile and a length ahead of IWR in RB Lewis in Feb.

To early to make picks but have a feeling the winner will be over 10-1. Musket Man, Papa Clem, Friesan Fire--look at them closely over the next few weeks.

[sandpit]

I know- I was keeping it simple - check out the year Monarchos won and the 2nd & 3rd place horses and their odds.

Toughest beat ever when Invisible Ink headbobbed Congaree, cost me about $12K...only wager I ever lost that made me sick to my stomach.

[Bettowin]

Toughest beat ever when Invisible Ink headbobbed Congaree, cost me about $12K...only wager I ever lost that made me sick to my stomach.

Someone start a "Bad Beat" thread for horseracing. Should be front and center and would be very therapeutic for all of us:) Not joking, I really think there would be a lot to be learned from how we all "just missed" that big score.

What do you all think? Or maybe what do y'all think?