Preparing for a new meet

[fiveouttasix]

Thought I would ask the forum. If you have the PP's & Charts for the last few seasons ( upcoming Belmont or Monmouth) what would be the best use to prepare for the upcoming meet. Of course I thought first of the trainers & was specifically thinking of tracking Lay-offs of 45 or more days. Anything else that would be helpful?

[JustRalph]

I used to think this stuff was valuable. But after tracking different tracks with a database for several months now........ I have found that tracks can change dramatically from week to week and one meet to the other might as well be a gazillion years.

There are a few that are consistent meet to meet........but not very many and not so consistent that it makes much of a difference.......the sharpies at those tracks are tuned into it already...........

What is working well in the last couple weeks is much more important......just my opine

[Bettowin]

It's good to know which tracks produce winners early at a new meet. Over the years I have learned that when certain tracks close and horses that have just run once or twice but have been training at the closing track often win first out wherever they go.

A good example is Fonner Park. It is a bullring track that is deep and sandy. Horses that have been working there ship out to Prairie Meadows, Canterbury etc... usually fare very well at very good odds because most consider Fonner to be a lesser quality track. Horses that leave Oaklawn also do very well at other tracks.

Don't know much about the east coast but I would think it is the same at most new meets.

[BIG49010]

At the start of Belmont I like to know who has been winning at AQU at the end of the meet, they are usually a throw outs at the start of Belmont. I like to look thru charts also as stated to see what track the winners came from in previous years.

Many trainers hit 1st over track, and other give there horses a race or two before they hit, but as stated some years don't line up.

[Imriledup]

If you have charts from previous season (like Mth for example) see which trainers have horses who 'outrun their odds' off a long(ish) layoff. For example, if you see a certain trainer who had a 50-1 shot who finished 4th and that horse hadn't raced in 6 months, there's a good chance that trainer really had that horse ready. Because he didn't actually win, his training, preparation and pointing for early in the meet might go undetected.

A lot of this stuff i'll call the 'next dance' theory. There are at least 2 types of situations for the beginning of a new meet that most horses fall into. Category 1 is horses who are specifically pointed to run well opening week at a new meet and category 2 is horses who just happen to be racing and that new meet is just the next stop on that horses dance card.

For Monmouth, you need to look for situations where trainers ran horses at meadowlands in the fall and they haven't raced anywhere since then. Guys like to freshen for 4 or 5 months. Some live runners will show up having last raced at Meadowlands with a nice series of works over the track. I think a trainer named Sleeter is really good with this type of horse. Its a family operation, they show up opening week at Monmouth with state bred runners who show talent at Meadowlands the previous year and they come out in these really high pursed state bred races ready to fire off a 6 month layoff. Those people's horses are ready to run right off the bat.

[jimmy m]

Bettowin your so right my first couple of years as announcer i dismissed the fonner shippers and got burned.They come over all meet and do well they have been bet a little more now then they used to.Oaklawn shippers win a majority of the races early at Prairie but are always backed heavily Jim

[Bettowin]

Bettowin your so right my first couple of years as announcer i dismissed the fonner shippers and got burned.They come over all meet and do well they have been bet a little more now then they used to.Oaklawn shippers win a majority of the races early at Prairie but are always backed heavily Jim

Thanks for the reply. I hope to get up to Prairie Meadows more than a few times this year.

[Donnie]

Hey Bet--
let me know in advance when you are heading this way if you are interested in hooking up!

-Donnie

[Bettowin]

Hey Bet--
let me know in advance when you are heading this way if you are interested in hooking up!

-Donnie


Will do. I need to start a list of posters here and which track they frequent so when I visit I can make sure not to miss out:)

[Norm]

Thought I would ask the forum. If you have the PP's & Charts for the last few seasons ( upcoming Belmont or Monmouth) what would be the best use to prepare for the upcoming meet. Of course I thought first of the trainers & was specifically thinking of tracking Lay-offs of 45 or more days. Anything else that would be helpful?
First thing - go to the track website and download a copy of the Condition Book. It will give you a heads-up look at what is coming at you. When trainers apply for stall space, they have to identify the horses they're bringing and provide PPs to the Racing Sec'y who will then write races to suite the stock at hand. Make note of how many N1Ys, N1Xs, Mdn Cl, [S] bred, etc. You will then know what caliber of racing to prepare for, especially at MTH.

The racing stock at BEL will be similar to AQU but with some stock arriving from GP. Use your charts to see how well horses from GP do when first arriving at BEL in the hands of various trainers. Watch for "Fire Sales" at both AQU and GP. Owners/trainers at GP have horses they don't want to pay shipping for to go North and they will be dropped sharply in class in the hope they will be claimed and maybe win a purse. Trainers at AQU do it too, to make room for stock coming up from GP. You can use your old charts and PPs from AQU to see which trainers have "liquidation" sales near the end of the meet to clear stable space.

[Easy Goer]

One of the best methods I've used at the Opening of the Spring Belmont Meet which also goes for the opening of Monmouth, is to track all horses that ran 4th or 5th at Gulfsteam in their last race who are racing today at Bel/Mth.

These types usually Win or run 2nd & 3rd at decent prices. The reasoning behind the Method, Is these horses are just prepping & working out when they raced in South Florida & are primed for All Out run when they get to Belmont or Monmouth, Good Luck.

[formula_2002]

Thought I would ask the forum. If you have the PP's & Charts for the last few seasons ( upcoming Belmont or Monmouth) what would be the best use to prepare for the upcoming meet. Of course I thought first of the trainers & was specifically thinking of tracking Lay-offs of 45 or more days. Anything else that would be helpful?
get some good software like JCapper, a few thousand dollars worth of past performance data, write a few programs, put in about 10 hrs a day on this stuff, get very lucky, and you may be able win two out of two on opg day ATl
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=56624...seriously :)