Quality Road not working at Churchill?

[Tread]

Just read in Haskin's dirty dozen that the plan for QR is to put in one more work a week out and then ship 4 days before the race to Churchill, meaning we will not get a chance to see a workout over the track. Was really hoping to get some indication of whether or not he likes the surface, so this is disappointing from a handicapping point of view :ThmbDown:

[joanied]

Just read in Haskin's dirty dozen that the plan for QR is to put in one more work a week out and then ship 4 days before the race to Churchill, meaning we will not get a chance to see a workout over the track. Was really hoping to get some indication of whether or not he likes the surface, so this is disappointing from a handicapping point of view :ThmbDown:

I read that too...he'll ship into Churchill just 4 days before the Derby...which means, he'll gallop over the surface....that's it.
I assume the horse missed some training days...and although I'd hate to second guess Jimmy Jerken's...I would be shippin' to Churchill the week before and get a word over that track, even a nice slow, long work...I don't know about this:confused:

By the way...Freisan Fire is going to put in a mile work in a few days....Larry J is doin' his thing:ThmbUp:

[sandpit]

Funny Cide and Giacomo both showed up 3 days before the race...

[joanied]

Funny Cide and Giacomo both showed up 3 days before the race...

Yes they did...and many others have waited to ship in...still, if it was me, not just with QR, but with any horse coming up to the Derby...I'd ship in so they have a full week to get used to everything...it can only help.
:)

[CincyHorseplayer]

By the way...Freisan Fire is going to put in a mile work in a few days....Larry J is doin' his thing:ThmbUp:

I don't know why entirely I love horses entering stakes races,especially young horses,with mile works.The angle has awarded me quite a bit though.It seems to add "Horsepower" in stretch runs!!

[joanied]

I don't know why entirely I love horses entering stakes races,especially young horses,with mile works.The angle has awarded me quite a bit though.It seems to add "Horsepower" in stretch runs!!

Me too, Cincy...he shouldn't come up short down the stretch...mile works are few and far between anymore...and I don't know why...gives them good lungs, plenty of muscle...power & strength, and they seem to be able to relax off a work like that.
:)

[sandpit]

I love the work pattern, and if you get a chance, check out the video of him on Keeneland's website. The horse looks great. The mile work will build the stamina, then if all is right, I bet you see a fast, short work at CD early Derby week.

Don't think after finishing second 2 years in a row, Jones isn't doing everything with a focus that will be unmatched coming into this race. He might not win, but his horse will be ready.

[Bettowin]

I love the work pattern, and if you get a chance, check out the video of him on Keeneland's website. The horse looks great. The mile work will build the stamina, then if all is right, I bet you see a fast, short work at CD early Derby week.

Don't think after finishing second 2 years in a row, Jones isn't doing everything with a focus that will be unmatched coming into this race. He might not win, but his horse will be ready.

Shhh. No offense to this website but I hope the big money isn't reading this:)

No worries FF will be what? 5-1 or better on May 2nd?

[Stevie Belmont]

The plan all along was to ship about 4-5 days before the Derby. I would like to see a fast 58-59 work from him a week or so before the race.

[tribecaagent]

By the way...Freisan Fire is going to put in a mile work in a few days....Larry J is doin' his thing:ThmbUp:[/QUOTE]

Sunday actually. Same pattern as Hard Spun with the mile work.

[cj's dad]

Shhh. No offense to this website but I hope the big money isn't reading this:)

No worries FF will be what? 5-1 or better on May 2nd?




can you make this thread password protected ??

[Bruddah]

Friesan Fire is of the Bold Ruler line, through A.P. Indy through Seattle Slew. These are the stats for that line from 1980 to last years KY Derby. 1980 t0 2008.

Bold Ruler Starters 10...wins 0... plc 1...shw 0...4th 1...5th 0
of those starters those coming thru

Seattle Slew starters 7...wins 0...plc 1...shw 0...4th 1...5th 0

Read into it what you will. I for one think, Friesan Fire is a good horse with an excellent trainer. However, I think his best shot is to hit the board and not win. Just my Humble Handicapping Opinion. :cool:

[tribecaagent]

Friesan Fire is of the Bold Ruler line, through A.P. Indy through Seattle Slew. These are the stats for that line from 1980 to last years KY Derby. 1980 t0 2008.

Bold Ruler Starters 10...wins 0... plc 1...shw 0...4th 1...5th 0
of those starters those coming thru

Seattle Slew starters 7...wins 0...plc 1...shw 0...4th 1...5th 0

Read into it what you will. I for one think, Friesan Fire is a good horse with an excellent trainer. However, I think his best shot is to hit the board and not win. Just my Humble Handicapping Opinion. :cool:

You may have a valid point. Although it is a small sample. I'm curious, what sort of bloodlines have had the most success in the Derby?

[joanied]

Friesan Fire is of the Bold Ruler line, through A.P. Indy through Seattle Slew. These are the stats for that line from 1980 to last years KY Derby. 1980 t0 2008.

Bold Ruler Starters 10...wins 0... plc 1...shw 0...4th 1...5th 0
of those starters those coming thru

Seattle Slew starters 7...wins 0...plc 1...shw 0...4th 1...5th 0

Read into it what you will. I for one think, Friesan Fire is a good horse with an excellent trainer. However, I think his best shot is to hit the board and not win. Just my Humble Handicapping Opinion. :cool:

About QR...I'd still feel better about him if he could have a week at Churchill, rarther than just 4 days...but, hey...Jerken's knows the horse and I assume he's laid back enough not to stress himself about being in a new place.

Bruddah...your stats make a good point....but the way things have been regarding the Derby over the last few years...anything can happen...and there are too many good horses that run through their pedigree...and we all know AP Indy sure could get the distance...so, at least for me...hope you are wrong:)

[joanied]

I love the work pattern, and if you get a chance, check out the video of him on Keeneland's website. The horse looks great. The mile work will build the stamina, then if all is right, I bet you see a fast, short work at CD early Derby week.

Don't think after finishing second 2 years in a row, Jones isn't doing everything with a focus that will be unmatched coming into this race. He might not win, but his horse will be ready.

Sandpit....I went to the site but couldn't find FF work...can you please either provide a link to it, or tell me where I need to go on the site to see it?
Thanks:)

PS...I agree, FF will have a good blow out just a few days before the Derby...perfect!!

[Bruddah]

I do agree with both of you. It is a small sample and horses do occasionally run thru their pedigrees. But, my response is, it is a sample made of 29 years and 29 Ky Derbies. This line has not been very productive when supplying either runners or runners capable of hitting the top 5 spots in the Derby. Additionally Horse racing is built on the Breeding of Pedigree's. Again, this is just my take and analysis and I am just as capable of being wrong, as the next handicapper. I don't consider this information as the "be all-end all". I do consider it as good db information for consideration, in making a final Derby choice and where to put my money. :ThmbUp:

[1st time lasix]

QR is proven on a dirt surface. Several Florida Derby winners from Gulfstream have fared well at CD in May. Not an issue. The fact that he arrives to the venue when he does is probably irrelevent to the handicapping decision.

[Bruddah]

The numbers I quoted in the previous posts were from year 2000 to last year.

These are the numbers from 1980 to 2008. They are even worse.

Bold Ruler starters 73...win 1...plc 2...shw 6...4th 4...5th 3

Seattle Slew starters 31...win 1...plc 1...shw2...4th 4 5th 1

My apologies for the misinformation.
Bruddah

[Bruddah]

You may have a valid point. Although it is a small sample. I'm curious, what sort of bloodlines have had the most success in the Derby?

Here is a breakdown of 1980 to 2008

1)Raise A Native starters 121-w13 p8 s8 4th 4 5th 10
RAN thru Mr Prospector starters 99-w9 p6 s4 4th n4 5th 8

2)Northern Dancer starters 100-w4 p7 s6 4th 6 5th 3

3)see Bold Ruler info

4)Turn-to starters 58-w3 p5 s3 4th 6 5th 6

5)ribot starters 24-w2 p2 s1 4th 0 5th 2

6)Buckpasser 9-w3 p1 s1 4th 0 5th 0

7) other sire lines 92- w2 p3 s2 4th 8 5th 4

total of 506 Ky Derby starters during these years.

[joanied]

By the way...Freisan Fire is going to put in a mile work in a few days....Larry J is doin' his thing:ThmbUp:

Sunday actually. Same pattern as Hard Spun with the mile work.[/QUOTE]

Are you saying you don't beleive the mile work will help because Hard Spun didn't win?
I love the mile work and then a good blow out just before May2nd... FF is not a Hard Spun, who we know was not effective at the Derby distance.
:)

Is there a video of the FF mile work somewhere...someone else said it was on the Keeneland web site...but I couldn't find it:confused:

[joanied]

QR is proven on a dirt surface. Several Florida Derby winners from Gulfstream have fared well at CD in May. Not an issue. The fact that he arrives to the venue when he does is probably irrelevent to the handicapping decision.

True....it's just my opinion that having only 4 days to get accustomed to all the chaos surrounding the derby would be beneficial...but, just my opinion!
:)

[joanied]

Here is a breakdown of 1980 to 2008

1)Raise A Native starters 121-w13 p8 s8 4th 4 5th 10
RAN thru Mr Prospector starters 99-w9 p6 s4 4th n4 5th 8

2)Northern Dancer starters 100-w4 p7 s6 4th 6 5th 3

3)see Bold Ruler info

4)Turn-to starters 58-w3 p5 s3 4th 6 5th 6

5)ribot starters 24-w2 p2 s1 4th 0 5th 2

6)Buckpasser 9-w3 p1 s1 4th 0 5th 0

7) other sire lines 92- w2 p3 s2 4th 8 5th 4

total of 506 Ky Derby starters during these years.

Bruddah...excellent research...I did a Google about all this and came up with several sites that provided info about the bloodlines of Derby horses...but yours is better...I would have had to place several links here and it is a ton of reading...in fact, I didn't have time to go through it all...have several chores outside to do today...and I gotta get my butt in gear:)
But ya know what...looking at the stats, if you think about it, a Derby winner is the product of a combination, a mixture, of bloodlines that happen to blend (nick) well...you have to take the top and the bottom of the pedigree and sort through all that in order to find the most 'bang for your buck'...so, IMO, in essence of all this...IS there a particular single bloodline that would produce the most Derby winners?
I hope I made sense out of what I'm trying to say....it's kinda confusing:faint:

[tribecaagent]

Sunday actually. Same pattern as Hard Spun with the mile work.

Are you saying you don't beleive the mile work will help because Hard Spun didn't win?
I love the mile work and then a good blow out just before May2nd... FF is not a Hard Spun, who we know was not effective at the Derby distance.
:)

Is there a video of the FF mile work somewhere...someone else said it was on the Keeneland web site...but I couldn't find it:confused:[/QUOTE]

On the contrary, Joanie. Hard Spun ran a brilliant race with a knucklehead in the saddle.

[tribecaagent]

Here is a breakdown of 1980 to 2008

1)Raise A Native starters 121-w13 p8 s8 4th 4 5th 10
RAN thru Mr Prospector starters 99-w9 p6 s4 4th n4 5th 8

2)Northern Dancer starters 100-w4 p7 s6 4th 6 5th 3

3)see Bold Ruler info

4)Turn-to starters 58-w3 p5 s3 4th 6 5th 6

5)ribot starters 24-w2 p2 s1 4th 0 5th 2

6)Buckpasser 9-w3 p1 s1 4th 0 5th 0

7) other sire lines 92- w2 p3 s2 4th 8 5th 4

total of 506 Ky Derby starters during these years.

Interesting stuff Bruddah. Thank you. As Mortimer Duke once declared to his brother Randolph "....same as in racehorses Randolph, it's in the b-l-o-o-d"

[Bruddah]

The obvious sire line to breed to has been Raise A Native through the Mr. Prospector line. However, where the Dam's sire line is RAN, I would avoid th is mix. There has been only one Horse win the Ky Derby with RAN on the Dam's sire line (out of 64 running) and that was Barbaro, who has gone on to be a Legend beause of his demise. Another was Eight Belles last year. Her sire line was RAN. That mix has produced horses with troubled legs.

If I were breeding today, it would be Smart Strike (RAN) with a solid Northern Dancer mare, through the Danzig line.

Here's good information for you. Raise A Native was the sire of Mr. Prospector. The Raise A Native influence has been prolific and dominant in Horse Racing for the last 40 years. Yet RAN's sire Native Dancer was really the foundation of it all. The only race Native Dancer lost was the 1953 Ky. Derby. He lost by a neck? Otherwise, I believe he won 22 out of 23 races, and he raced through his 4 year old year. From Native Dancer you get such great horses as, Alydar, Majestic Prince, Exclusive native, Mr Prospector, whose lineage includes Conquistador Cielo, Fappiano, Forty Niner, Gone West, Gulch, Jade Hunter, Kingmambo, Our Emblem, Woodman, Seeking the Gold, Smart Strike and many more too numerous to mention. Native Dancer's grand daughter was Natalma, who was the Dam of Northern Dancer, whose line includes Danzig, Dixieland Band, Nijinsky II, Nureyev, Sadlers Wells, Sovereign Dancer, Vice Regent, Lyphard, Storm Bird, Storm Cat and Mujadel.

As you can see, breeding does have something to do with the next generation's ability to win and win top races. I think Native Dancer was the Best Horse of the last half of the 20th Century. He certainly had a tremendous influence on the Thoroughbred. :ThmbUp:

[turfbar]

I'm sure you already know that Barbaro's time in the Florida Derby was 1:49 flat

1/2 length victor were as QR time for this years FD was 1:47.3

1 3/4 length victor 1 thing



Second thing -- I read from BRIS that Gulfstream was speed biased all meet long

Interesting fodder


Turfbar

[joanied]

Bruddah...Excellent :ThmbUp: post, great :ThmbUp: info...don't ya just love delving into bloodlines:jump: