I've Seen Enough: It's West Side Bernie!

[Thomas Roulston]

Now that the Derby prep-race season is over for all intents and purposes, I've decided to use West Side Bernie as my key horse for the Derby.

His 101 Beyer in the Wood was all I needed to see; he has the foundation, the experience, and the all-important pedigree to get the job done - and at like what, 25-1?

And while I'd probably rather have someone other than Stewart Elliott in the irons, he wasn't bad enough to keep Smarty Jones from winning the Derby (and the Preakness), now was he?

[DrugS]

and the all-important pedigree to get the job done -

You're reaching big time.

His sire Bernstein failed badly all three times they tried him at a route distance.

His dam - a former claimer sired by sprinter Gilded Time - never won beyond 6 furlongs.

Not that it means anything - because it doesn't - but he does not have anything remotely close to a classic pedigree

[onefast99]

Now that the Derby prep-race season is over for all intents and purposes, I've decided to use West Side Bernie as my key horse for the Derby.

His 101 Beyer in the Wood was all I needed to see; he has the foundation, the experience, and the all-important pedigree to get the job done - and at like what, 25-1?

And while I'd probably rather have someone other than Stewart Elliott in the irons, he wasn't bad enough to keep Smarty Jones from winning the Derby (and the Preakness), now was he?
If you read the post I started on WS Bernie going to the Derby you aren't the only one who thinks he has a shot, only issue is that the trainer has never performed well in big spots and this is his biggest one yet. I do give Breen credit for getting the maidens to the winners circle at MP against some pretty easy competition and that will be his strong suit for the next few years as a private trainer.

[W2G]

Now that the Derby prep-race season is over for all intents and purposes, I've decided to use West Side Bernie as my key horse for the Derby.

His 101 Beyer in the Wood was all I needed to see; he has the foundation, the experience, and the all-important pedigree to get the job done - and at like what, 25-1?


Ever since a friend of mine talked up and nailed Giacomo a few years ago I never dismiss a Derby opinion out of hand.

You're looking to get very generous odds here for a Wood runner-up. Pedigree-wise, 14 total dosage points is so low that most handicappers will look no further than that and toss from the top spot. It's safe to say that Bernie has already outrun the sprinting influence from his dam side. My current pick, Desert Party, boasts a measly 12 total dosage points so I personally think one needs to avoid shortcuts and take a careful reading of bloodlines in conjunction with performance.

Good luck.

[toussaud]

are you freaking serious?

[LemonSoupKid]

Ever since a friend of mine talked up and nailed Giacomo a few years ago I never dismiss a Derby opinion out of hand.

You're looking to get very generous odds here for a Wood runner-up. Pedigree-wise, 14 total dosage points is so low that most handicappers will look no further than that and toss from the top spot. It's safe to say that Bernie has already outrun the sprinting influence from his dam side. My current pick, Desert Party, boasts a measly 12 total dosage points so I personally think one needs to avoid shortcuts and take a careful reading of bloodlines in conjunction with performance.

Good luck.

Not that one should dismiss any horse out of hand (30-1 shots have to win some time) the reasoning here is less than stellar. Talked up and nailed Giacomo? The reason why he won that race was because it was the slowest time (and Beyer, or any other figure) in years. That is, no one else ran that day, for reasons unknown (Alex was 3rd, Closing Argument 2nd). To predict that Giacomo would win was contingent on ~13 other horses all running extremely poorly (I'll give you the fact that 6 were outright worse than Giacomo). So not only did you have to predict Giacomo would run fairly well, over half the field would have to have one of the worst Derby's ever. Naturally, this has nothing to do really with Giacomo or anyone "talking him up." Giacomo was a bad selection flat out. If the previous selection was not enough, here's the proof:

Giacomo was 3rd in the Preakness, back 10 lengths
He was 7th in the Belmont, back 17 lengths

So in the following Triple Crown races he was beaten 27 lengths. End of story.

I'm not comparing Bernie here to Giacomo, I'm just addressing how (esp. due to a longshot bias) the odds were MUCH GREATER than 50-1 for Giacomo to win. You won't see that type of horse win for another 60-70 years.

This field is very deep. So you better be prepared to give really good reasons why Bernie will win. 2 year old foundation is tremendously important. But why should we take Bernie over I Want Revenge (after that falling start and recuperation in the Wood) or over Pioneer of the Nile, the two other accomplished Dual Qualifiers?

[W2G]

Not that one should dismiss any horse out of hand (30-1 shots have to win some time) the reasoning here is less than stellar. Talked up and nailed Giacomo? The reason why he won that race was because it was the slowest time (and Beyer, or any other figure) in years. That is, no one else ran that day, for reasons unknown (Alex was 3rd, Closing Argument 2nd). To predict that Giacomo would win was contingent on ~13 other horses all running extremely poorly (I'll give you the fact that 6 were outright worse than Giacomo). So not only did you have to predict Giacomo would run fairly well, over half the field would have to have one of the worst Derby's ever. Naturally, this has nothing to do really with Giacomo or anyone "talking him up." Giacomo was a bad selection flat out. If the previous selection was not enough, here's the proof:

Giacomo was 3rd in the Preakness, back 10 lengths
He was 7th in the Belmont, back 17 lengths

So in the following Triple Crown races he was beaten 27 lengths. End of story.

I'm not comparing Bernie here to Giacomo, I'm just addressing how (esp. due to a longshot bias) the odds were MUCH GREATER than 50-1 for Giacomo to win. You won't see that type of horse win for another 60-70 years.

This field is very deep. So you better be prepared to give really good reasons why Bernie will win. 2 year old foundation is tremendously important. But why should we take Bernie over I Want Revenge (after that falling start and recuperation in the Wood) or over Pioneer of the Nile, the two other accomplished Dual Qualifiers?

What can I tell you, this guy believes he nailed Giacomo at his racing peak. I think anyone would look a little foolish telling him he didn't. Although it's an unsavory thought, people do exist who bet Giacomo based on rational arguments (in addition to all those who bet him because they have an Uncle Giacomo in the family). I too would be dubious of this fact if I didn't know one personally.

My larger point here is that although I received a series of messages from my friend detailing why Giacomo would win (a predicted brutal pace, Bellamy Road is a fraud, Giacomo is poised to explode, etc.), I doubt that I read past the first sentence since I questioned his sanity. We know of course that he was only partially right and Giacomo did not explode, and never would explode. He did nevertheless cross the finish line first and the mutuel clerk did not demand a written defense of picking Giacomo before cashing his tickets.

I wouldn't have bet Giacomo with a gun to my head, nor will I bet Bernie. But I now try to give opinions, however irrational they may appear, the benefit of a doubt.

[Relwob Owner]

Not that one should dismiss any horse out of hand (30-1 shots have to win some time) the reasoning here is less than stellar. Talked up and nailed Giacomo? The reason why he won that race was because it was the slowest time (and Beyer, or any other figure) in years. That is, no one else ran that day, for reasons unknown (Alex was 3rd, Closing Argument 2nd). To predict that Giacomo would win was contingent on ~13 other horses all running extremely poorly (I'll give you the fact that 6 were outright worse than Giacomo). So not only did you have to predict Giacomo would run fairly well, over half the field would have to have one of the worst Derby's ever. Naturally, this has nothing to do really with Giacomo or anyone "talking him up." Giacomo was a bad selection flat out. If the previous selection was not enough, here's the proof:

Giacomo was 3rd in the Preakness, back 10 lengths
He was 7th in the Belmont, back 17 lengths

So in the following Triple Crown races he was beaten 27 lengths. End of story.

I'm not comparing Bernie here to Giacomo, I'm just addressing how (esp. due to a longshot bias) the odds were MUCH GREATER than 50-1 for Giacomo to win. You won't see that type of horse win for another 60-70 years.

This field is very deep. So you better be prepared to give really good reasons why Bernie will win. 2 year old foundation is tremendously important. But why should we take Bernie over I Want Revenge (after that falling start and recuperation in the Wood) or over Pioneer of the Nile, the two other accomplished Dual Qualifiers?


I dont thing Bernie will be my pick, but I could see it....reminds me of when Empire Maker was viewed to be similarly superior to Funny Cide coming out of the Wood, just like IWR is viewed as superior to Bernie....I just had a feeling that Funny Cide was improving a lot and that he would improve off the Wood(Bailey going wide the whole way and Funny Cide getting the perfect trip helped too)....Given the choice, I would definitely take Bernie at 10 to 1 or greater over IWR, who I think will be about 4 to 1....

I also think the Deby is one of the best races to bet against any favorite in because of the trips horses get....who knows if IWR will break badly again? Will Talamo be able to recover as well if he isnt sure that he is 10 lengths better than the field, as he was in the Wood?.....IWR could easily be the best horse and not hit the board....Point Given was a great example of that IMO

[onefast99]

I dont thing Bernie will be my pick, but I could see it....reminds me of when Empire Maker was viewed to be similarly superior to Funny Cide coming out of the Wood, just like IWR is viewed as superior to Bernie....I just had a feeling that Funny Cide was improving a lot and that he would improve off the Wood(Bailey going wide the whole way and Funny Cide getting the perfect trip helped too)....Given the choice, I would definitely take Bernie at 10 to 1 or greater over IWR, who I think will be about 4 to 1....

I also think the Deby is one of the best races to bet against any favorite in because of the trips horses get....who knows if IWR will break badly again? Will Talamo be able to recover as well if he isnt sure that he is 10 lengths better than the field, as he was in the Wood?.....IWR could easily be the best horse and not hit the board....Point Given was a great example of that IMO
WS Bernie had the perfect trip, he had a stablemate in Atomic rain that tried to bang IWR in the stretch, Bernie wasn't good enough to win the Wood, he isn't good enough to win the Derby, Preakness, Belmont or Haskell. The connections will have plenty of stories written about them and Breen will talk until the cows come home, bottom line is he belongs in this race as this years crop is very light(injuries etc)IWR will be a tough one to beat.

[Relwob Owner]

WS Bernie had the perfect trip, he had a stablemate in Atomic rain that tried to bang IWR in the stretch, Bernie wasn't good enough to win the Wood, he isn't good enough to win the Derby, Preakness, Belmont or Haskell. The connections will have plenty of stories written about them and Breen will talk until the cows come home, bottom line is he belongs in this race as this years crop is very light(injuries etc)IWR will be a tough one to beat.


I think your analysis is pretty strict and prorating it all the way through the Triple Crown seems a bit premature because who knows what will transpire between now and then....he could improve off the Wood and I Want Revenge could get a terrible trip, you just never know----I dont like Bernie to win and do think IWR is the better horse. My point was more geared towards the fact that the Derby is such a crapshoot trip wise and the best horse doesnt always win......

[Run Nicholas Run]

Stew Elliot is theonly thing positive about Bernie.

[onefast99]

Stew Elliot is theonly thing positive about Bernie.
Please tell us why?

[onefast99]

Stew Elliot is theonly thing positive about Bernie.
Another big day today for Stewie and Breen at CD they are getting a good view of what it will look like for West Side Bernie.

[Run Nicholas Run]

Please tell us why?

because Stew Elliot is a winner .

[JustRalph]

I saw a workout on HRTV today.........Bernie looked very very labored to me

[sandpit]

I may eat my words, this horse is a complete toss. he was at the clinic just a few weeks ago. got passed in the gallop out this morning by a Godolphin horse that was well behind him during their works. too many negatives, and Elliott may be a winner, but this is not Smarty Jones.

[Dahoss9698]

because Stew Elliot is a winner .

Could you explain this one also? A winner? I could have rode Smarty Jones and won the Derby and Preakness.

[onefast99]

I saw a workout on HRTV today.........Bernie looked very very labored to me
Breens motto, three good wheels makes a runner...

[Irish Boy]

he had a stablemate in Atomic rain that tried to bang IWR in the stretch

I'm sure the connections aren't going to like hearing that. They'll be thinking about breeding fees in a little while.

[onefast99]

I'm sure the connections aren't going to like hearing that. They'll be thinking about breeding fees in a little while.
?

[onefast99]

I'm sure the connections aren't going to like hearing that. They'll be thinking about breeding fees in a little while.
Atomic rain to the breeding shed as a 3 year old. Sure, when pigs fly. Unless you mean WSB and in that case they could have a nice stallion if they go that route.

[onefast99]

Stew Elliot is theonly thing positive about Bernie.
Again why do you think that? Is there something that Stewie does that another jock like Trujillo couldn't or even Bravo, who by the way had a nice ending to a decent GP meet.

[Irish Boy]

Atomic rain to the breeding shed as a 3 year old. Sure, when pigs fly. Unless you mean WSB and in that case they could have a nice stallion if they go that route.

Once again my rapier wit goes unappreciated.

[onefast99]

Once again my rapier wit goes unappreciated.
Atomic rain for President!

[Market Mover]

Stewie's last ride in a TC race ended in bitter disappointment...who's to say he "wants revenge?"...

WSB's physical problems these past few weeks definitely bring up the red flags though.

But at this price, is he a possible 3rd/4th slot key in the supers?

You don't have to just pick the winner of this Derby to cash...some argue about playing for 3rd or 4th, but something tells me if WSB and another longshot hit the board with one of the favs in front, it's still going to be a signer...

[Thomas Roulston]

Well now, West Side Bernie will break from the post position that has produced more Derby winners than any other!

Yeah, I know how I Want Revenge effectively went 1 3/16 miles in the Wood, and did it faster than West Side Bernie negotiated 1 1/8 miles; but with the Derby draw being what it is, IWR may have to run 1 5/16 miles faster than WSB travels 1 1/4 miles - and with IWR's pedigree being what it is, he'd be pleased as punch if he never had to go farther than 1 1/16 miles ever again.

[Relwob Owner]

Well now, West Side Bernie will break from the post position that has produced more Derby winners than any other!

Yeah, I know how I Want Revenge effectively went 1 3/16 miles in the Wood, and did it faster than West Side Bernie negotiated 1 1/8 miles; but with the Derby draw being what it is, IWR may have to run 1 5/16 miles faster than WSB travels 1 1/4 miles - and with IWR's pedigree being what it is, he'd be pleased as punch if he never had to go farther than 1 1/16 miles ever again.


I said earlier I thought you had a point with WSB and I still think you do....I stille see the Funny Cide/Empire Maker comparison a little bit.....WSB gets a perfect trip and IWR gets a tougher one and WSB turns the tables....I propbably wont bet him but with IWR being abt 3 to 1 and WSB being about 20 to 1, I think WSB is easily the better play.....

[Bettowin]

Might this be the year of the "Bernie". We have already seen one Bernie take a lot of money from the unsuspecting public. Will this Bernie do the same? :)

[onefast99]

I said earlier I thought you had a point with WSB and I still think you do....I stille see the Funny Cide/Empire Maker comparison a little bit.....WSB gets a perfect trip and IWR gets a tougher one and WSB turns the tables....I propbably wont bet him but with IWR being abt 3 to 1 and WSB being about 20 to 1, I think WSB is easily the better play.....
IWR will have a better trip then in the wood. WSB got a perfect trip in a small field. Atomic rain sat on the rail and also received a perfect trip. 20 horses doesn't give you much room for error and the way IWR ran the wood he makes a more logical choice then WSB. I will use WSB in my exotics but IWR is a tough one based on the Wood.

[onefast99]

Might this be the year of the "Bernie". We have already seen one Bernie take a lot of money from the unsuspecting public. Will this Bernie do the same? :)
Yes it could be, but not in this race.

[onefast99]

Stewie's last ride in a TC race ended in bitter disappointment...who's to say he "wants revenge?"...

WSB's physical problems these past few weeks definitely bring up the red flags though.

But at this price, is he a possible 3rd/4th slot key in the supers?

You don't have to just pick the winner of this Derby to cash...some argue about playing for 3rd or 4th, but something tells me if WSB and another longshot hit the board with one of the favs in front, it's still going to be a signer...
Revenge for what, a poor decision on SJ in the Belmont, please leave those theories at the door. Too many better class riders in this race to school guys like Elliott.

[Bruddah]

Form cycle: WSB will be running his 3rd race after a layoff. His second race after a layoff was an improving 2nd to the Ky Derby morning line favorite IWR. Bernie is one of a handful to have a Triple digit Beyer (101?) and this alone indicates he is capable of improving to a winning average Beyer number. He also has a late pace rating of 110, which is in the top four of all entrants. His last 3/8th's time for the Wood was 36.55 sec's.

He may not be my top pick, but please don't tell me he doesn't have a shot at very attractive odds. (m-L 30-1)

[dartman51]

If you're looking for a longshot to put in the MIX, in the exoctics. I have 3 words for you. HOLD ME BACK.

[46zilzal]

If you're looking for a longshot to put in the MIX, in the exoctics. I have 3 words for you. HOLD ME BACK.
This one did run versus the 3rd fastest Pace of Race and was SIX WIDE next out so this one is not too far fetched even though his % median is far too low for this race, BUT a contender nonetheless.

My only problem with any of the syntho-garbage kings is that the "powers that be" have not worked out accurate intertrack variants and Turfway lines transfer far too fast day in day out.

[onefast99]

Form cycle: WSB will be running his 3rd race after a layoff. His second race after a layoff was an improving 2nd to the Ky Derby morning line favorite IWR. Bernie is one of a handful to have a Triple digit Beyer (101?) and this alone indicates he is capable of improving to a winning average Beyer number. He also has a late pace rating of 110, which is in the top four of all entrants. His last 3/8th's time for the Wood was 36.55 sec's.

He may not be my top pick, but please don't tell me he doesn't have a shot at very attractive odds. (m-L 30-1)
That is some very good information, the only problem I see is his inability to win a race, seconditis for sure.