Zenyatta

[Zenyatta To Crush]

So much triple crown talk, I thought I'd focus on the best horse in the world for a bit. Seems like she's just about ready for a return to the track, she has been working like a monster and just worked out 1: 10: 60 H on April 11. Shirreffs said before the work that he'd have a much better idea of when to run her back after her work.

The original plan was to run in the Milady H. which isn't until May 23, but after her latest work I'd think they would have to look for something sooner. Shirreffs had recently considered running her back in an allowance race, but thought it may be tough to fill the race.

My idea is this...why not run her in the Louisville Distaff on the Kentucky Oaks undercard? The race is worth $200,000 more than the Milady H. and Mike Smith will already be at the track to ride Stardom Bound. I'm really anxious to see her run again on dirt and I hope her connections take a few chances and not just try to stay undefeated.

I can already hear Shirreffs saying he doesn't really want to ship her and will just wait for the Hollywood races. I seriously think her owners want to retire her undefeated and won't tackle the boys either. I'll be disappointed if thats the case since I believe she'd be able to beat up on them if she tried.

I'm also biased towards running her in the Louisville Distaff since I'll be at te track that day and have really wanted to see her in person. Wouldn't Zenyatta's connections want to show off this great horse in front of 100,000 people? That would be great for the sport.

[Imriledup]

Why would they run her on the dirt against what might amount to serious competition? She can stay in Calif and beat up on Santa Teresita and the usual suspects at 1-9?

These people had the greatest opportunity handed to them when they had the BC Classic in their backyard vs a suspect field and they just went the safe route. They didn't showcase one of the best mares to ever race in the USA vs the boys when they had it handed to them on a silver platter.

If you can't take a shot on synethetic in your backyard vs the boys with a horse as talented as this, when CAN you take the shot?

[Zenyatta To Crush]

Serious competition? I don't think there is any serious competition for Zenyatta in the filly & mare division. The only female horse that could test her would probably be Rachel Alexandra but that won't happen until the Breeders Cup probably. Do you really want to see her continue to beat up on Santa Teresita and Model?

They only ran her in the Distaff last year because that was their primary goal all year long, she hadn't raced against the best east coast horses yet, and the classic was coming up pretty tough.

I think this year they should have more open minds. If they take the safe route and run her against the best west coast fillies and mares all year and again in the Distaff, then retire her...I'm gonna be a little disappointed.

[joanied]

Good to have some news & discussion about Zenyatta...I have been waiting and waiting for her return:faint:
The idea about running her in the Louisville Distaff is a good one...IMO...but I won't hold my breath...having Zenyatta run on Derby Day would be outstanding...
but, John S is very conservative...so who knows? I agree, they have to ship her out of CA. She has to face Rachel Alexander sooner or later, and hope we don't have to wait until BC Day...
remaining undefeated is a fabulous goal, and IMO, I beleive she is good enough to do so even shipping out...if she stays in CA, even if she has another undefeated season racing there...it'll be like Pepper's Pride and her win steak...most everyone didn't think it was as great a feat as it should have been because she never left new Mexico.

[Zenyatta To Crush]

I hope the reason they aren't shipping her is because they are afraid of stiff competition. The only female horses that have any talent at longer distances right now might be Seventh Street or her stablemate Life is Sweet. She won't run against her stablemate, so that doesn't leave too much. I thought her best race besides the Breeders Cup might have been the Apple Blossom. Thats why I want to see her run on dirt again.

I doubt they'll run Zenyatta enough times to challenge Pepper's Pride record, but it seems like winning races against weak competition is more important to her connections than beating the boys.

[joanied]

Oh.....I didn't mean they should even try running Zenyatta enought times to challenge Pepper's Pride...just using it as an example to show how imortant it is to ship a horse out of it's home state...if you want respect, that is...as far as I am concerned...Zenyatta is the champ no matter where she runs or doesn't run...that said, though...
yes, John S and her owners need to think seriously about shipping her out...she fared pretty well the one time she did...so, I see no reason why they shouldn't.
If she can win out of Cal a few times, and continue her win streak...she can go down in the history books as one of our great race mares.

But...for now...I just look :jump: forward to her first race back...and we'll go from there:)

[Zenyatta To Crush]

Well the good news is that Zenyatta is one of 26 horses nominated to the Louisville Distaff on Oaks Day. The bad news is that I'm sure Shirreffs will still keep her at Hollywood. At least Curlin's connections took some shots, even if some of them were unsuccessful. I would rather have them take some chances against good competition rather than running Zenyatta in 5 horse fields with horses that are badly overmatched.

Oh well, at least we still get to see her run I guess.

[Imriledup]

I hope the reason they aren't shipping her is because they are afraid of stiff competition. The only female horses that have any talent at longer distances right now might be Seventh Street or her stablemate Life is Sweet. She won't run against her stablemate, so that doesn't leave too much. I thought her best race besides the Breeders Cup might have been the Apple Blossom. Thats why I want to see her run on dirt again.

I doubt they'll run Zenyatta enough times to challenge Pepper's Pride record, but it seems like winning races against weak competition is more important to her connections than beating the boys.

Exactly. They want to duck and dart and dodge and find races where she'll be 1-5 or 3-5. Why crush the Classic at 5-1 and create a horse people will remember? All they are doing now is creating a situation where years down the line when people talk about all time great fillies and mares, people won't give this horse enough credit because her connections were yellow.

[joanied]

The Louisville Distaff would be a great place to start with her...after a nice allowance win to fine tune her...but, like you, I seriously doubt she'll run there...John S will say something like she's not quite ready...the end of May is way, way, way too long to wait...seems to me, she is more than ready to run now....and Mike Smith will already be in Kentucky to ride Chocolate Candy in the Derby!
I agree with you guys...they will be doing Zenyatta a great injustice if they keep her in CA again...there are so many great races coming up for the fillies/mares...high purses, prestige...top spots...let the big mare roll...even if, like Curlin, they take a chance and she looses...that'd take nothing away from her...hell, Curlin lost a few and was still named HoY...and she really needs to beat the colts...at least one time!

[Zenyatta To Crush]

Thats what I'm talking about....Shirreffs decides to run Zenyatta back on the dirt in the Louisville Distaff on the Oaks undercard. I was hoping they would run her there, since I've wanted to see her in person for quite some time now.

She will most likely win easilly, but I'm really excited for this race!

http://drf.com/news/article/103295.html

[joanied]

:jump: :jump: :jump: Fantastic news...looks like Oaks Friday is gonna show case two of our best runners...Zenyatta is the Distaff & Rachel A in the Oaks...
I'm so excited about this I can hardly stand it:jump:
I hope the weather forecast for Friday at Churchill is wrong and it doesn't rain...

[Zenyatta To Crush]

I'm glad Shirreffs proved me wrong about never wanting to ship Zenyatta from the Hollywood area. He didn't really have any other options since Life Is Sweet is already running in the Milady, and the Vanity is not until later in June. He made the right decision. Now, we get to see maybe the 2 best female dirt horses in the world at the same track on the same day...Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra. Hopefully we get to see the anticipated matchup later this year in the Breeders Cup.

[joanied]

Yep...John S has known he wasn't gonna be able to keep "Z" in CA forever...she'll do just fine anywhere he shipd her, IMO... it has never really bothered me that I'll never see a Kentucky Derby in person...but I'd give a lot to be there on Oaks day...and IMO...either of these mares could beat the boys...and just might try it later in the season.
May the racing Gods shine upon both of them on May 1st

I'm so damned excited!
:jump: :jump: :jump:

[startngate]

:jump: :jump: :jump: Fantastic news...looks like Oaks Friday is gonna show case two of our best runners...Zenyatta is the Distaff & Rachel A in the Oaks...
I'm so excited about this I can hardly stand it:jump:
I hope the weather forecast for Friday at Churchill is wrong and it doesn't rain...Yep ... and where will the network coverage be ... oh that's right, on Bravo .... :mad:

[joanied]

Yep ... and where will the network coverage be ... oh that's right, on Bravo .... :mad:

Yeah....just makes my blood boil :mad: ....no doubt the TV ratings will be miserable, just how many people are gonna watch it...or even know it's on Bravo...I swear, ESPN is so full of BS...not only do they move Oaks day to f**&%##@ Bravo...how many prep races did they televise leading up to the Derby...not many:mad:

I don't see why 'they' can't move the Oaks and for that matter, the Louisville Distaff, to Derby Day...I cannot think of one good reason those 2 big distaff races can't be on Derby Day....they sure won't take anything away from the Derby itself...I don't know, but I just don't get it.

[GaryG]

I don't see why 'they' can't move the Oaks and for that matter, the Louisville Distaff, to Derby Day...I cannot think of one good reason those 2 big distaff races can't be on Derby Day....Here is one: They get a crowd of 100K for Oaks day.

[joanied]

Here is one: They get a crowd of 100K for Oaks day.

Ok, Ok...point made:ThmbUp:

[Rackon]

To Kentuckians, Oaks Day is nearly as big a deal as Derby Day. If a Kentuckian has a nice 3 YO filly, he wants to win the Oaks for sure. He/she doesn't mind in the least that the race isn't on Derby Day, nor do the Oaks field owners mind that they have their own moment in the spotlight.

The Oaks and Derby cap a huge festival...90-110k people for Friday, and the Oaks undercard card has been improving every year (Zenyatta!!! Bliss!!). In some ways the Oaks Day is more fun to attend, as it's not as miserable to get around in, lots of racing facs and not nearly the capers from non-fans and infield denizens. The fans love Oaks day. And CD loves the wagering and $$ from two big days instead of one.

My idea of heaven is to be at CD for both the Oaks and the Derby, but that hasn't happended since 2005.

Now..Ladies Day at the Breeders Cup? I still don't like that idea.

[Nikki1997]

To Kentuckians, Oaks Day is nearly as big a deal as Derby Day. If a Kentuckian has a nice 3 YO filly, he wants to win the Oaks for sure. He/she doesn't mind in the least that the race isn't on Derby Day, nor do the Oaks field owners mind that they have their own moment in the spotlight.

The Oaks and Derby cap a huge festival...90-110k people for Friday, and the Oaks undercard card has been improving every year (Zenyatta!!! Bliss!!). In some ways the Oaks Day is more fun to attend, as it's not as miserable to get around in, lots of racing facs and not nearly the capers from non-fans and infield denizens. The fans love Oaks day. And CD loves the wagering and $$ from two big days instead of one.

My idea of heaven is to be at CD for both the Oaks and the Derby, but that hasn't happended since 2005.

Now..Ladies Day at the Breeders Cup? I still don't like that idea.


If you haven't seen Zenyatta in person, enjoy. She is absolutely stunning and magnificent. I went to Oaklawn last year specifically to see her and that is something I will always cherish.

[GaryG]

If Zenyatta meets Rachel somewhere down the line my money will be on the 3yo. Not taking anything away from Zenyatta, she is obviously a very fine filly, but RA could be "one of the ones". If not for the tragic Eight Belles incident I think RA would be running on Saturday.

[SmartyLane]

If you haven't seen Zenyatta in person, enjoy. She is absolutely stunning and magnificent. I went to Oaklawn last year specifically to see her and that is something I will always cherish.

I saw Zenyatta last year at the BC Ladies Classic.....you talk about a horse with a efforltess massive stride. Her back legs nearly graze the ground and don't come up much. She looks like she is doing it so easy. Simply amazing to watch and I feel lucky to have seen such a great filly.

Now..........I have a feeling this may be the best filly we have seen in year. Headed to the BC again this year and I so hope that I can see Zenyatta eatting up the homestretch trying to catch RA. That would be something to see.

[joanied]

If Zenyatta meets Rachel somewhere down the line my money will be on the 3yo. Not taking anything away from Zenyatta, she is obviously a very fine filly, but RA could be "one of the ones". If not for the tragic Eight Belles incident I think RA would be running on Saturday.

It'd be a tough call....but I think you may be right...Rachel might get such a lead on Zenyatta, that 'Z' wouldn't be able to ctahc her...but she'd get pretty close, I think.
Something to look forward to later in the year!!

[Nikki1997]

I saw Zenyatta last year at the BC Ladies Classic.....you talk about a horse with a efforltess massive stride. Her back legs nearly graze the ground and don't come up much. She looks like she is doing it so easy. Simply amazing to watch and I feel lucky to have seen such a great filly.

Now..........I have a feeling this may be the best filly we have seen in year. Headed to the BC again this year and I so hope that I can see Zenyatta eatting up the homestretch trying to catch RA. That would be something to see.

Something that doesn't come across on t.v. that does in person is the breathtaking power that Zenyatta has. She is absolutely deadly in the stretch. I am really looking forward to Friday. First race of the year for her, shipping out to run on dirt. Oh, yeah. The queen returns. :)

[SmartyLane]

Something that doesn't come across on t.v. that does in person is the breathtaking power that Zenyatta has. She is absolutely deadly in the stretch. I am really looking forward to Friday. First race of the year for her, shipping out to run on dirt. Oh, yeah. The queen returns. :)

Yes her power is a sight to be seen. At the Breeders Cup last year I am not sure I saw another horse of her size except maybe Midnight Lute (another visually impressive horse). When she lopes along 5-10 lengths back she is merely galloping without any exertion of energy and still hangs with the leaders. Even when she turns it on coming around the final curve she makes it look effortless.

Just think if they both can go undefeated which could be very likely unless they meet each other along the way on their way to the Breeders Cup....that would be some great pub for the racing industry.

[menifee]

Serious competition? I don't think there is any serious competition for Zenyatta in the filly & mare division. The only female horse that could test her would probably be Rachel Alexandra but that won't happen until the Breeders Cup probably. Do you really want to see her continue to beat up on Santa Teresita and Model?

They only ran her in the Distaff last year because that was their primary goal all year long, she hadn't raced against the best east coast horses yet, and the classic was coming up pretty tough.

I think this year they should have more open minds. If they take the safe route and run her against the best west coast fillies and mares all year and again in the Distaff, then retire her...I'm gonna be a little disappointed.

I realize you are a big fan of Zenyatta but I think you are wrong about there not being any competition in her division. One Caroline is undefeated. She's 5 for 5. She is a speed demon and has won on the Churchill surface before. There is absolutely no speed in this race on Oaks Day. Perhaps Unbridled Belle puts a little pressure on her, but Unbridled Belle is not the same horse she was two years ago. Zenyatta is coming off a 6 month layoff. I think One Caroline gets an easy lead in this race and slows it down. If that happens, Zenyatta might be facing the first defeat of her career. It will be hard to make up that much ground running into that pace.

One Caroline ran the day after the Florida Derby. I believe she ran a similar Beyer to Dunkirk, but she was under a hand ride. Very good horse. I think you will get 3-1 and I think it is a pretty good bet.

[joanied]

One Caroline is an exceptional mare....but no one beats Zenyatta...even with her long layoff...she's in the Louisville Distaff because she's been feeling so good, John S said she needs to race...
Zenyatta:1:

[freehouse2002]

I realize you are a big fan of Zenyatta but I think you are wrong about there not being any competition in her division. One Caroline is undefeated. She's 5 for 5. She is a speed demon and has won on the Churchill surface before. There is absolutely no speed in this race on Oaks Day. Perhaps Unbridled Belle puts a little pressure on her, but Unbridled Belle is not the same horse she was two years ago. Zenyatta is coming off a 6 month layoff. I think One Caroline gets an easy lead in this race and slows it down. If that happens, Zenyatta might be facing the first defeat of her career. It will be hard to make up that much ground running into that pace.

One Caroline ran the day after the Florida Derby. I believe she ran a similar Beyer to Dunkirk, but she was under a hand ride. Very good horse. I think you will get 3-1 and I think it is a pretty good bet.
Looking at the PP's, you're right, One Caroline looks dangerous, but just because she is likely lone speed doesn't mean she doesn't get caught. In the Lady's Secret last year, Zenyatta was seemingly up against it against Hysterical Lady (who is no slouch) as it was a 4 horse field with no one to go with HL. Zenyatta ended up being 2 lengths behind until she took over in the stretch. I feel the same will happen here, although this race is far from a walkover.

Hopefully we will see Zenyatta and Rachel somewhere down the line. With our depleted Handicap division, unless a 3YO male really steps up the rest of the year, both of these can contend in the Classic IMO.


freehouse2002

[joanied]

I haven't even seen the post postions yet...been busy today...but it won't matter...Freehouse, you made a great point..."Z" will be there unless Mike screws it up...which he won't:D

[Zenyatta To Crush]

I realize you are a big fan of Zenyatta but I think you are wrong about there not being any competition in her division. One Caroline is undefeated. She's 5 for 5. She is a speed demon and has won on the Churchill surface before. There is absolutely no speed in this race on Oaks Day. Perhaps Unbridled Belle puts a little pressure on her, but Unbridled Belle is not the same horse she was two years ago. Zenyatta is coming off a 6 month layoff. I think One Caroline gets an easy lead in this race and slows it down. If that happens, Zenyatta might be facing the first defeat of her career. It will be hard to make up that much ground running into that pace.

One Caroline ran the day after the Florida Derby. I believe she ran a similar Beyer to Dunkirk, but she was under a hand ride. Very good horse. I think you will get 3-1 and I think it is a pretty good bet.
I agree with you that One Caroline looks to be a talented horse. Its hard to gauge how good she actually is however since she's been winning all her races on the lead against weaker competition. I think the Gulfstream track was still pretty quick in her last race, since it was the day after the Florida Derby, when multiple track records were being set. She obviously ran very well, but the figure she got could be a little high.

Regardless, she should set a slow to moderate pace and should have some left in the tank coming down the stretch. And if Zenyatta is to ever get beaten, it would have to be coming off a layoff, so this will be One Caroline's best chance to upset.

I still just think Zenyatta can break a little slow, like usual, bide her time near the back of the pack (or closer if she needs to), then make her usual big run around the turn and down the stretch. I think Zenyatta could win on the lead if she wanted to and I think she likes the dirt surface a bit more than the synthetics. We'll see I guess. I'm just glad she's back.

[Bettowin]

Will be very interesting to see how big Zenyatta's late kick will be on the dirt at Churchill. One Caroline should have a huge headstart at the top of the lane.

[toussaud]

i dont' know...i just have this feeling like she isn't going to win. doesn't mean she's a bad mare or anything, she hasn't raced in 6 months for crying out loud. but I think if you are looking for value this is a good race to bet in

[fmolf]

one caroline is undefeated and has comparable speed figs.... is 2/2 at churchill....i would not call zenyatta a mortal lock...oh and one caroline looks like lone speed.....

[Nikki1997]

Should be a great race, but I've been a huge fan of Zenyatta's since 11/07 and I'm staying with her. All comments as to her appearance at CD have been wowzers. Going with the big Z girl. :)

[fmolf]

Should be a great race, but I've been a huge fan of Zenyatta's since 11/07 and I'm staying with her. All comments as to her appearance at CD have been wowzers. Going with the big Z girl. :)
she does look awesome but if caroline can get out to a big lead early one never knows...stranger things have been known to happen...i just may box the two of them in an exacta.....lone early speed and awesome late runner...i do not think anyone else will be there at the end... although unbridled belle did run a big race off a similar layoff

[freehouse2002]

Again, I don't think Zenyatta is going to be as far back as we all think. Will be fun to watch!


freehouse2002

[GaryG]

I am betting One Caroline at 3-1 or better.

[Bettowin]

$200 to win on Caroline at 2-1 or better then back it with and exacta of Zenyatta over Caroline for $60. That should cover it.

[Watcher]

I think Zenyatta is going to be scratched.