Horses 4 Courses

[turfbar]

Let me present a theory, with this preliminary clause, with the advent of "POLY" tracks how does the old adage "horse for courses" work in todays market.I find handicapping Kee so tuff ,but thinking only bet horses that preform well at that track. With the approaching triple crown races upon us how can we figure how ,i.e., Pioneer of the Nile will adapt to regular dirt course?


Turfbar

[Imriledup]

The problem with this theory/idea is that those horses will be overbet. Handicappers will place more money on the 'proven commodity'.

Personally, i stay away from Polytrack because i feel that riders judgment, pace scenario's and bias are too unpredictable. Jocks are too sensitive to Polytrack and won't 'send' a horse as hard as they normally send him, thus, its really hard to know if your deep closer can 'reach'.

Keeneland is extremely tough because its a 'boutique' meet. Most runners at the meet aren't coming off a race or two over the track. Runners are shipping in from all over the place. Unless you are an expert on the midwest and really know what kind of stuff wins there, its a hard track to really play.

Keeneland is tough because you are not just handicapping actual horses. There's too much randomness because of how the surface plays and how the riders dole out the speed of the frontrunners and pace pressers.

keeneland is too hard for me.