Definition of Chaos race and implications

[duckhunter3]

What is YOUR definition of a chaos race? I have heard lots of variations- a race where no horse can run to the pars at the 1st, 2nd, and final calls; a race where the handicapper cannot meaningfully separate the chances of up to 4 contenders winning (and therefore has to assign fair odds of 20% to each), etc.

So I am interested in a serious discussion of this chaos concept.

AND, in the case of serial pick 3's, for example, how chaos races affect your ticket construction.

thanks to all.
the duckhunter

[raybo]

What is YOUR definition of a chaos race? I have heard lots of variations- a race where no horse can run to the pars at the 1st, 2nd, and final calls; a race where the handicapper cannot meaningfully separate the chances of up to 4 contenders winning (and therefore has to assign fair odds of 20% to each), etc.

So I am interested in a serious discussion of this chaos concept.

AND, in the case of serial pick 3's, for example, how chaos races affect your ticket construction.

thanks to all.
the duckhunter

To me at least, a "chaos" race is one in which an expected pace scenario cannot be determined.

I usually pass these races.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I use the term "unpredictable race" as any in which expected or tote odds during on-tote betting has no horse bet to lower than 5-2. The sooner it is recognized and a reason found the better your chance of making 1 or more reasonable bet on midrange to longshot horses in the race. I do not use others' classic definitions of "chaos races", and mine are independent of any other race unless it is cause by a weather-caused surface variation.

[badcompany]

If you ran the race 10 times, you'd get 7+ different winners.

[Greyfox]

A race where none of the entrants have run to par for the distance at the class level.

[schweitz]

To me it is a race where more than half of the entrants would not surprise if they won. I love these races and go deep in them in horizontal wagering.

[raybo]

Here's a pretty good definition that applies rather well to horse racing:

"Chaotic systems" .... "look random, but are not. They are actually deterministic systems governed by physical or mathematical laws (predictable in principle, if you have enough information), that are impossible to predict, in practice, beyond a certain point."

[Dave Schwartz]

In the HSH experience many of us select "contenders" based upon answering this question:

"After the race is over, will I be able to see that the winner of the race was at least 2nd-best in at least one of several key factors."

As a general rule, a typical field will have between 2 and 4 such horses, depending upon how dominant the top horses are.

Whenever these contenders make up more than FrontHalf+1 or if there are more than 4 such horses, the race is chaotic.

In these races, the contenders seem to have no advantage over the non-contenders. The best strategy seems to be:

1. Sort the horses by odds, low-to-high.
2. Drop down to FH+1, and make this the threshold for highest odds.
(Do not split hairs by a point or less for odds and at the higher ranges 5 points.)
3. Make the horses selected in step #2 the "contenders."
4. Now re-sort these contenders, from high-odds-to-low.
5. Play 1/2 the field or 4 horses, whichever is more.

This play makes an extremely powerful exacta box. (Yes, I said box 4 x 4 in a lrage field.)

Typically, these horses can also be flat bet (i.e. bet equally) and be profitable. Longer odds horses (8/1 and up) will usually be playable to place.

The link below is to a similar wagering approach I designed years ago called Key To The Mint.
http://horsestreet.com/freestuff/articles/key2mint/index.html

In test after test this approach has come up well. Even if you run behind for awhile, about every 200 races you see positive results.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[facorsig]

One type of chaos race is when there is no horse going off lower than 3-1 at post time. The public is unable to determine a true "favorite" and often this type of race generates a longshot winner.

[senortout]

One type of chaos race is when there is no horse going off lower than 3-1 at post time. The public is unable to determine a true "favorite" and often this type of race generates a longshot winner.

All previous comments being agreed upon, I would like to add one comment based on my personal experiences (dating back to Secretariat's time)....there are far MORE CLUES AS TO THE WINNER in a race like this, than in a seemingly cut and dried 'I know the winner' type race. People slap themselves upside the head after these races...they can see it after the race right there in the form, etc, etc....

All this meant was that they shoulda stuck with it, studied harder on these. They also provide a greater return odds wise, as a rule.

Of course thats just my opinion;)

[trying2win]

Here's another installment of the "Mysteries Of The Racetrack"...i.e. strange things that happen at the racetrack.



--One of these 'M.O.T.R' happenings is when a handicapper is stumped when trying to pick the winner in a so-called 'chaos race'. What to do in the betting part? Hmmm. If it's in a horizontal gimmick race bet of 2 races or more, I'm guessing many handicappers will resort to go for the 'ALL' option in the chaos race. And what happens in about 80 to 98 % of the time they do this? I bet you it's that the favorite will win the race!

T2W

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
~"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

--Yogi Berra

[arno]

At tracks with rolling pick 3's I look for the chaos race and start my pic 3 in that race. Pick 3 prices are based on 1st leg of ticket. Almost always better to have a 30/1, 6/1, and 9/5 in that order than a 9/5, 6/1, and 30/1 in that order.

My definition of a chaos race is when I am tempted to hit the all button.

Now when will we have rolling pick 4's?

[thelyingthief]

fabricand had a good answer (although he referred to co-favorites in defining it): when two or more horses are virtually identical with respect to the methods of your handicapping, OR the public's principle methods, there you have a chaotic situation. choice itself is wrong in this situation, and a handicapping method should not attempt to make further distinctions among various possibilities.

value ONLY determines the wager. i find these situations to be lucrative, but hard on the emotions.

tlt-

[CBedo]

A chaos race for me is a race where the pace scenario is muddled and none of the horses have run within a few lengths of the speed par. Basically, it's a race "I" can't predict with any certainty (and below par horses), but that doesn't mean there won't be any value.

I actually like these races, as the public seems to always be looking for the "best" horse, but I look for the "change" horse, something that might make him wake up and run better. I also demand big odds (usually somewhat greater than the field size--so 8 horses, must be greater than 8/1). I don't always find both conditions, and I pass many, but when I do find one, I'll bet them to win, sometimes multiple horses. My records show that I don't win these very often, but often enough at big enough odds to show show a very positive return.

[menifee]

Chaos race: NW2L low level claimers or NW1Y
I'm a vertical player so if I believe a race is a chaos race, I try to find order in the race. Normally, I can find a horse especially in the NW2L scenario that will consistently run in the money but not win the race. Typically a horse who seems to close no matter what the pace scenario because the horses in front of him always quit if they don't get the lead. I back wheel in the tri and supers. all-all-x, etc. Expensive play, but I have had some big scores as you can get some bombs in these races.

Didn't have it - but Mountain 4/13 race 6 was a good example of this.

If the favorite wins, I bang my head into the wall.