Whats up with this?

[joeprunes]

I notice or it seems that most of you guys swear by Byers. When I was into thorograph and the sheets they didnt think very much of byers. Now over the last few years it seems like most of the major handicap championships have been won by sheet people . Ive read some aricle that one of the best hadndicapers in the world betting million dollars a year uses sheets. Trainers use sheets (rags and thorograph) to buy horses, but yet it seems like no one here uses rags or Thorograph except for a handful of guys,now I`m wondering why is that. Also there is also alot of Pace players ,again Rags and Thorograph doesnt use pace but yet they win championships So I guess what I`m asking is use what works for you or is one better than the other? Any opions?....jp

[rastajenk]

I've heard the sheets are pretty pricey. You have to bet big just to justify obtaining them in the first place. Beyers are free, therefore they have greater utility for a wider range of fan interest.

I was under the impression that Baffert and the Prince bought War Emblem last year off his big Beyer, not his sheet number.

[Pace Cap'n]

Where can I find the free Beyers?

[rastajenk]

Ah, my bad. But for five bucks you can sure get more Beyers than you know what to do with.

[takeout]

Originally posted by Pace Cap'n
Where can I find the free Beyers?
Thanks! That one actually brought a smile to my face. :D

[pic6vic]

Sheets are good, but they only give you info. They are for the heavy hitters as the advetisement says.

$30.00 per day per track, with a discount for multiple tracks. Not on the internet either.

[Marc At DRF]

Both Ragozin and Tgraph Sheets are indeed available on the internet.

[Fastracehorse]

How do we know the breakdown of who uses what in contests??

Also, Baffert said he bought W Emblem because he ran a good Beyer. Everybody talks Beyers.

Some guys use clockers sheets too - Mike Mitchell.

There are lots of good tools.

About the Rags not using pace: Everybody uses pace to some extent - and class. It is just hidden within what they use.

I believe ther Beyer is an excellent reflection of pace - even though it is indirectly measured.

For me, adjusting Beyers is a great tool.

fffastt

[pat]

THERE ARE TWO OTHER SHEETS OUT THERE THAT GIVE PACE#S AND A FINAL #S AND THEY ARE WWW.EQUIFORM.COM AND WWW.WOODSIDEASSOCIATES.COM I SPOKE TO VERY HELPFUL PEOPLE AT BOTH AT EQUIFORM CARY AND AT WOODSIDE JOHN 2 NICE GUYS AND THEIR PRODUCT IS ABOUT 1/3 OF RAGOZIN AND BROWN

[joeprunes]

When they have world Championships in vegas I believe sheet players win. Is there any one that can verify that?

[JimG]

It's not the fig...it's the player interpreting them.

[Tom]

this question was just asked of Andy Beyer in his chat on DRF tonight:

.................................................. ..................................................
midlearth:
7:53 pm Do you use the "sheets" for your personal handicapping


ANDY___BEYER:
7:53 pm You've got to be kidding.
.................................................. .................................................. .
Brass, pure brass!

[Fastracehorse]

Everybody has an angle - even Beyer.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

But there are successful players who don't use popularized tools.

fffastt

[Jaguar]

Joe, I bench-marked the DRF and Variant numbers against the Beyer's several years ago, and found the DRF and Variant figures 15% more accurate in putting horses in the money.

Moreover, Jim Cramer's numbers are better than the above two.

Cramer is one smart handicapper. I never look at Beyer's and resent it at OTB when someone sticks a sheet in my face with Beyer's on it. I don't want to possibly be influenced by them.

When the Beyer's came in I was scared, thinking they would kill
all value. They did alot of damage, but they miss quite a few $7 and $8 horses- thank goodness.

All the best,

Jaguar

[Fastracehorse]

Yes,

But if you adjd Beyers for factors that should be adjd for, eg., 4-w trips, then you would see how valueable a tool they are.

fffastt

[Jaguar]

Fastracehorse, thanks for the info. This shows how clever some guys are. Improving the Beyer's would take considerable insight.

I know it's possible, because Dan Pope(a mechanical engineer by training) developed a masterful correction formula for the Beyer numbers- and sold it quite inexpensively- some years ago.

Don't know if it would work today, though, due to the magic cool aid the trainer's are pouring down the horses' throats prior to race time- as well as the rocket fuel alot of unscrupulous horsemen are injecting into these magnificent animals(thereby accelerating their physical decline and speeding up the horse's rendezvous with the Alpo van).

All the best,

Jaguar

[superfecta]

Originally posted by Jaguar
Don't know if it would work today, though, due to the magic cool aid the trainer's are pouring down the horses' throats prior to race time- as well as the rocket fuel alot of unscrupulous horsemen are injecting into these magnificent animals(thereby accelerating their physical decline and speeding up the horse's rendezvous with the Alpo van).

All the best,

Jaguar Cmon Jag,using that logic would mean that any rating not using drugs in its calculations is not going to work.I rarely see any race (outside of first time starters)in which one could say there was ample evidence of a drug being the reason the horse won.Some races make you wonder,but as a whole one cannot make drugs the reason people can't make money at the track.

[Jaguar]

Superfecta, you make a couple of good points.

Perhaps my comment would have made a bit more sense, had I elaborated on my reasoning.

1. When the Beyer's gained currency, the numbers were made in a very consistent, reliable way- in other words, quite portable. The Beyer's were intended to be universal, that is: applicable to any racetrack.

2. Dan Pope's correction formula simply adjusted the slight anomalies inherent in the Beyer method, and gave a more accurate estimate of a horse's rate of deceleration at given distances- a technique first given credence by Huey Mahl, then RaceCom, and subsequently many others.

3. So, at this point we are looking at a static speed rating method and a static correction to that method.

4. Into this world, in the late 1990's- gradually intrudes a new form of an old dynamic, i.e., doping horses. New chemical formulations and consequent form reversals. Suddenly, some Claimers are putting up Allowance numbers and the better Allowance runners are lighting up the results column on the toteboard like Northern Dancer.

Now, Oscar, who has been King of The Aqueduct Bloodletting, and a man who bankrupted more men than a New York Dominatrix, is "old hat"- out of date, used up, a has been.

Trainers new to the major tracks, such as Pistol Pete, -and a couple of years later, guys like "Juan I Fooled You Today and My Brother and I Will Take Your Money Tomorrow, Too" started fleecing the bettors to the extent that these pirates wound up with an ocean of money, -some of it mine.

5. Thus, a handicapping method basing it's output on speed ratings and pace lines failed to predict the outcome of many, many races during those years.

6. But, all was not gloom and doom for the lowly bettor in the trenches. Because, while the cheaters gradually became a major presence on the horse racing scene, handicapping methodology advanced, and artificial intelligence programs, a la Thorobrain(thank you, Dave Schwartz) and Multi-Strats(thank you, Curtis Martin and Dr. Sengbush) appeared and successfully tracked the cheating trainers and found their patterns. Suddenly, I -an old, dyed-in-the-wool speed and pace wretch- could make money again betting on horses, based on their trainer's intentions.

7. Summing up, speed and pace guys will always win their share of races, particularly in the Maiden Special Weight, Allowance, and Stakes categories, wherin the animals are inherently reliable and consistent.

8. But, the connections handicappers will have statistical validation for their bets, not solely based on speed and pace and current form- the traditional handicapping criteria- but based upon the trainer\jockey algorithm used to discover a trainer's habits and patterns. Once we can ascertain the relative strength of those patterns, we possess the keys to the vault.

All the best,

Jaguar

[Fastracehorse]

One of my favorite subjects: How do I adjust for cardio-vascular stimulants??

I do - but it was the ADJD FIG that lead to the theory.

What I do is numerically assess a horse's past performance.

So, I see dramatic improvements in form, in certain areas consistently, and by consistent improvement values.

So, in essence, I see trainer patterns develop, and I believe almost everybody uses them to some extent.

Anyways, the improvement is much more dramatic in NY and Florida where there is no bute. Why?? I'm not sure. I should ask a vet. I don't think it's just an inflammation issue.

fffastt

[joeprunes]

WELL DONE...JP

[Derek2U]

Now in my db i've been studying beyers; but we have developed
a speed measure based on class & it will be interesting to see
how these 2 measures of speed agree.

[Tom]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse@DRF
Everybody has an angle - even Beyer.

fffastt

I meant the guy asking the question had brass ones.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Derek2U
Now in my db i've been studying beyers; but we have developed a speed measure based on class & it will be interesting to see how these 2 measures of speed agree.

Derek, do you build in a reference for different tracks?
I seem to remember a 14k Claimer at GP that ran 1:09 a few months back. I don't think you see that anywhere else. I guess I am asking how you account for the speedier tracks.

[cj]

I'm sure you could see 14K claimers win in 1:09 in NoCal, home of the paved highway!

CJ

[Tom]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse@DRF
Yes,

But if you adjd Beyers for factors that should be adjd for, eg., 4-w trips, then you would see how valueable a tool they are.

fffastt

Isn't that a subjective adjustment? Closer usually are wide to begin with, so aren't you rewarding them for running the wrong way? I can see uping a front runners number if he was wide.

[Fastracehorse]

I have more adjustments to make other than just lost ground - eg., pace.

Closers often get carried wide into the stretch - but they often get clean trips too. But that wasn't really my point ( 4-w trips ). My point was that the printed # in the form ( Beyer ) often does not reflect the true ABILITY of the animal - and hence, objectifying the adjustment ( since you like that concept ) is a sound and powerful tool.

BTW,

Indian Express is an example of objectification - a very tough
35-1 shot 2nd after a duel.

fffastt