Would Dunkirk Have Won the Wood?

[MickJ26]

Just wanted to see what the folks here think.
We had a good natured debate/discussion at the local OTB.
If Todd Pletcher did scratch out of the Florida Derby and run in the Wood with Dunkirk as he mentioned in his post-race comments on ESPN, what would've been the results? The track at Aqueduct played pretty fairly. Kodiak Kowboy and Capt. Candyman Can won from off the pace and Giant Moon was a stalk and pounce. I think the pace scenario would've set up nicely for Dunkirk as he would've come running down the middle of the track. I think Dunkirk would've passed by the tiring leaders around mid-stretch and won going away. I don't think I Want Revenge would've gotten up in time. Obviously it's easy to second guess and play out different scenarios in your head. I wonder if Pletcher is going to keep it in the back of his mind next year if given a similar choice.

[FlyinLate]

Just wanted to see what the folks here think.
We had a good natured debate/discussion at the local OTB.
If Todd Pletcher did scratch out of the Florida Derby and run in the Wood with Dunkirk as he mentioned in his post-race comments on ESPN, what would've been the results? The track at Aqueduct played pretty fairly. Kodiak Kowboy and Capt. Candyman Can won from off the pace and Giant Moon was a stalk and pounce. I think the pace scenario would've set up nicely for Dunkirk as he would've come running down the middle of the track. I think Dunkirk would've passed by the tiring leaders around mid-stretch and won going away. I don't think I Want Revenge would've gotten up in time. Obviously it's easy to second guess and play out different scenarios in your head. I wonder if Pletcher is going to keep it in the back of his mind next year if given a similar choice.

Had I Want Revenge broken well I believe he is a better horse than Dunkirk.
If IWR had the same break in the Wood, there is no way he would have made up that ground on Dunkirk IMO.

[MickJ26]

Had I Want Revenge broken well I believe he is a better horse than Dunkirk.
If IWR had the same break in the Wood, there is no way he would have made up that ground on Dunkirk IMO.


I agree with you.
If I Want Revenge breaks cleanly he wins without breaking a sweat.
Since he didn't, most likely result is Dunkirk wins with I Want Revenge closing hard for second.
I wonder if Todd Pletcher is kicking himself for not scratching out of the Florida Derby.
Dunkirk is on the bubble with $1.75 million in graded stakes purse money to be given out this Saturday.

[andymays]

I hope they run 1-2 in the Derby. Bet a $20 exacta box in the futures and bet Revenge to win.

Sweatin out Dunkirk though. If the owner wants in bad enough he may go in the Derby Trial to get enough money to qualify.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

I reckon if Dunkirk runs in the Wood he wins no matter how I Want Revenge breaks

The horses IWR beat are a team of walkers

[onefast99]

I reckon if Dunkirk runs in the Wood he wins no matter how I Want Revenge breaks

The horses IWR beat are a team of walkers
Finally someone who saw that the rest of that field was nothing more then allowance horses at best. WS Bernie will go to the Derby and get trounced, IWR would of finished 2nd to Dunkirk. I know its easy to say that after the race but GP's racing surface added a lot to Dunkirk's 2nd place finish.

[Relwob Owner]

Finally someone who saw that the rest of that field was nothing more then allowance horses at best. WS Bernie will go to the Derby and get trounced, IWR would of finished 2nd to Dunkirk. I know its easy to say that after the race but GP's racing surface added a lot to Dunkirk's 2nd place finish.

I am hoping that bettors dont see what you see and IWR gets overbet....would be nice to get one of the others at a price...

[onefast99]

I am hoping that bettors dont see what you see and IWR gets overbet....would be nice to get one of the others at a price...
There is still a chance someone will run a huge race in the next 2 weeks and that should get us 7-2 on IWR.

[cj's dad]

There is still a chance someone will run a huge race in the next 2 weeks and that should get us 7-2 on IWR.

Theregoesjojo seems well spotted here.

[Bruddah]

Dunkirk is a good horse with great Breeding. Unfortunately, he is maturing too late for the Ky derby and doesn't have enough "foundation" or graded earnings. If he does get in, he will have to do a lot of maturing in just a few weeks.

The Triple Crown is about the best young horse in the early part of the racing calendar. Not necessairly who will be the best 3yo at the end of the year. That's why colts with Raise a Native bloodlines have done well in the Triple Crown. Because, they seem to mature early in their 3 yo racing year.(JMHHO) ;)

[Thomas Roulston]

If you really think about it, Dunkirk's saga only goes to show why horses who were weighted with 10 lbs. on the Experimental Free Handicap for 2-year-olds the year before have had an advantage in the Derby: Obviously, in order to get so weighted, a horse would have had to have amassed enough graded-stakes earnings as a 2-year-old to have a major leg up for getting into the Derby field.

[Peter Allen]

There is still a chance someone will run a huge race in the next 2 weeks and that should get us 7-2 on IWR.

In the unlikely event you have some European relatives who could place a wager on your behalf, you can 4-1 with some respectable UK bookies and 5-1 on the exchanges on IWR:

http://www.bookies.com/betting-odds/horse-racing/international-racing/usa/antepost/kentucky-derby

But obviously not that easy to get action.