Live Toteboard Super Chalk Selections For 4-8-09 - 82.4% Current Winners !!

[Anderon]

I will be posting my Super Chalk selections for 7 more days, until the 14th. These selections will win on the average of 80%-85% of the time with a ROI of 60%-65% and will very very rarely run out of the money (98% ITM).

I derive these selections by only using the toteboard and nothing else. I have found a wagering pattern for these chalks from backtesting and studying my database that I have compiled over the last 8-9 years and it consistanly produces the percentages stated above day in and day out. I have tracked it live now for the last 2 months since I found this pattern in Jan and started my tracking of it on Feb 19th as I was waiting for it to be programmed. I just got my program finished by my programmer on Saturday the 4th of April.

I want to share this with everyone to just show you how profitable it is playing a viable chalk when you can distinguish a good chalk from a bad one and that's what I have been able to accomplish with this pattern I have found along with a calculation that I added to it to guage how they are wagered upon at certain intervals throughout their wagering progression that I monitor.

I know you will enjoy it. :)



Let's Get Profitable !! :ThmbUp:

[sligg]

I will be posting my Super Chalk selections for 7 more days, until the 14th. These selections will win on the average of 80%-85% of the time with a ROI of 60%-65% and will very very rarely run out of the money (98% ITM).

I derive these selections by only using the toteboard and nothing else. I have found a wagering pattern for these chalks from backtesting and studying my database that I have compiled over the last 8-9 years and it consistanly produces the percentages stated above day in and day out. I have tracked it live now for the last 2 months since I found this pattern in Jan and started my tracking of it on Feb 19th as I was waiting for it to be programmed. I just got my program finished by my programmer on Saturday the 4th of April.

I want to share this with everyone to just show you how profitable it is playing a viable chalk when you can distinguish a good chalk from a bad one and that's what I have been able to accomplish with this pattern I have found along with a calculation that I added to it to guage how they are wagered upon at certain intervals throughout their wagering progression that I monitor.

I know you will enjoy it. :)



Let's Get Profitable !! :ThmbUp:

As a tote system, how are you able to monitor multiple tracks and how close to post time does a bet become viable and what about odds changes after post time?

[Anderon]

Hey Sal the first part of your question is that I designed my own personal toteboard and took the info and made it viewable as to how I want to see all the info from the live feeds that I get. I then put all the info, WPS pools, Exacta pools, money and odds progression in chalk order and not horse number order. It constantly updates it's self every 10 seconds in chalk order so I see everything in chalk order at all times. I will later today, when they are running take a few snapshots of what I'm talking about to show you. I then designed a minutes to post window that shows me when post is for all the tracks I monitor for the selection. I designed it so that all I have to do is to click on the track I want to see when is close to post and look at my figures to determine if it is qualifies or not and I generally do this around 5 minutes or so to post and follow it until post to make sure my figures hold up to what they need to be. After they are off and the numbers change like they do, I don't worry about that as I can only go with the info at hand, but generally my selection is so strong that those changes won't effect it what so ever. A horse is a viable play at the 1 minute line up to post depending how strong or close my numbers are and I don't get some wild swings in action on the smaller tracks. The larger tracks (pools) are not so problematic for me as the smaller ones (pools) can be. I hope this helps Sal. I will do those snapshots later today and post them up after my recap tonight. :)

[Anderon]

While I'm waiting for some selections to develope here is the minutes to post snap shot. This is how I know when the tracks are comming to post. The tracks listed below are for later today and will move up to the top part of the windows at 25 mintues before their 1st race.

[Anderon]

This is how my WPS pools look in chalk order and my prices if the chalk runs in the money or out of the money. I can also add any amount of money to a live pool to see how my wagers will affect the payouts as it will change all the odds and payoffs to the race for what I want to wager on the race even before it goes off.

[Anderon]

Now we just have to play the patience game and wait for a selection to develope. Yesterday was a long wait but certainly worth it but today we have alot more opportunity as we have alot more tracks running.

[formula_2002]

Now we just have to play the patience game and wait for a selection to develope. Yesterday was a long wait but certainly worth it but today we have alot more opportunity as we have alot more tracks running.
HOW ABOUT GP 2ND THE 5 IS 10% PLACE POOL OVERLAY

[formula_2002]

HOW ABOUT GP 2ND THE 5 IS 10% PLACE POOL OVERLAY
THAT WAS 1 MIN TO POST. IT WENT OFF AS AN UNDERLAY PAYING 2.10 TO PLACE.
MY MIN PLACE MUT WAS 2.45
MAKING IT A TERRIBLE UNDERLAY...

[Anderon]

Hey Formula, how are ya? I don't play those place and show pool overlays, they are not profitable by any means in the long or short run, that just doesn't work any more with all the late money that gets pounded into the pools after they are off.

[formula_2002]

Hey Formula, how are ya? I don't play those place and show pool overlays, they are not profitable by any means in the long or short run, that just doesn't work any more with all the late money that gets pounded into the pools after they are off.
HEY Anderron I'm fine , and you?
I've been doing a lot of work with the place pools recently.
base on data I've collected, 30% of the favorites collecting a place mutuals are overlays.
It's an interesting study.
just have to come up with a way to anticipate those finnal pool numbers :)

[Anderon]

I'm doing great, thanks for asking. Just to let you know I've been thru all of that place and show pool study when I first put my program together and I could never find a profitable outcome on the overlays no matter how hard I tried. Hopefully you will be able to find the answer with your efforts and your studying. I never stop trying to get better at this game. :ThmbUp:

[Anderon]

Keen 5th....#6 at 2-1

[Anderon]

Keen 5th....#6 at 2-1

Winner....$5.60....$3.40....$2.60

[fiveouttasix]

Keeneland 5th was won by the #7.

[Anderon]

Sorry I didn't realize I posted wrong race number this was Keen 6th.

[Anderon]

Lrl 8th....#1 at 1-1

[Anderon]

Lrl 8th....#1 at 1-1

Winner....$3.60....$2.40....$2.10

[Anderon]

Aqu 9th....#7 at 1/5

[Anderon]

Aqu 9th....#7 at 1/5

Winner....$2.60....$2.20....$2.10

[Light]

Do you really need preprogramed software for the toteboard to pick these odds on horses? If you want to bet chalk,wouldn't it be easier to just scan who is going off at odds on,glance at their form to make sure its not some negative class drop or something like that and bet or not bet accordingly? Although I got to give you credit for not picking the 3/5 favorite in Kee's 8th who ran off the board in a 6 horse field.

[Anderon]

Hi Light, how have you been? I wish it were that easy but it's not. I don't just pick any odds on horse, they have to meet my certain mathimatical and wagering pattern that I have discovered going thru the last 8-9 years of my database. I think if it were that easy everyone would try doing it the way you just described. My first selection of the day was a 2-1 chalk at Keen 6th, which I mistakenly posted as the 5th race. :bang: There are times I will get a 5/2 or even a 3-1 chalk winner, but those of course are not very often. For me it's all about a very high consistancy of winners along with a solid roi, regardless of their odds.

[formula_2002]

A, who's tote board do you use?

I've been use twinspires.
I just checked there wps poosl with the charts

twinspires totlal was $224,064
charts were 267,002
Bris supertote was 266,991

Thanks

[Anderon]

What track race are those totals from? I can't disclose where I get my feeds from per contractual agreement that is in place, sorry about that. The reason for this is I hit the site every 5-10 seconds for updates on the pools. I worked out an agreement not to disclose this as everyone would want this type of fast update on odds and pool totals and their bandwidth would not be able to handle it and the they would have a potential problem of continual crashing on their end with everyone hitting it so often. This is why I'm so much more accurate than most adw sites as they tend to be alot slower on feeds than what I get.

[formula_2002]

What track race are those totals from? I can't disclose where I get my feeds from per contractual agreement that is in place, sorry about that. The reason for this is I hit the site every 5-10 seconds for updates on the pools. I worked out an agreement not to disclose this as everyone would want this type of fast update on odds and pool totals and their bandwidth would not be able to handle it and the they would have a potential problem of continual crashing on their end with everyone hitting it so often. This is why I'm so much more accurate than most adw sites as they tend to be alot slower on feeds than what I get.


That was today's the 9th at AQU.

[Anderon]

I had Win-$112,008....Place-$40,184....Show-$71,860 for a total of $224,052

[formula_2002]

I had Win-$112,008....Place-$40,184....Show-$71,860 for a total of $224,052
those were the same numbers I had, using twinspires.
now look at the handle in the results chart.
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant_pdf.cgi?type=inc&country=USA&track=AQU&date=2009-04-08&race=9.
I could tell something was wrong (and often) because I calculate the favorite place mutual.

also, look at bris super tote who's totals are much more accurate.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/totedb/top_frame.cgi

[Anderon]

I saw those numbers, wonder who's right? :confused: I'm sure we are tho.

[Anderon]

Nothing qualifying so far tonight for me !! :cool:

[MakinItHappen]

I saw those numbers, wonder who's right? :confused: I'm sure we are tho.

Anderon and Formula,

I believe the wager pool #'s you guys are looking at are AFTER TAKEOUT. Probably not a big deal for what Anderon is doing, as I sense he is focussing more on relative wager flow trends, however, I suppose I could envision a scenario where this could throw a person if he/she were attempting to project pay-offs.

I believe the WPS takeout at Aqueduct is 16% (per trackthieves site).

267,002 WPS Pool per charts
(42,720) Track Takeout at 16%
--------
224,282 Net WPS Pool
224,052 Anderon Feed WPS Totals
--------
230 Difference attributable to Breakage
======

Hope this helps guys and keep up the good work!

Best of Luck to Both of You!

MakinItHappen

[Anderon]

You are certainly correct, my program does the takeout automatically for each track.

[formula_2002]

You are certainly correct, my program does the takeout automatically for each track.
my problem is i project the expected pmutual base on win pool odds w/o adjusting for track take because i want the "true" win probability.
twinspires not only adjust the total win pool for track take, they just the amount wagered on each horse to sum to the "adjusted total" giving the whole system a 100 book.
Dumb!!.
i dont think that is a industry standard.
It's certainly a neat way of "hiding" the take!!

thanks makingit

[MakinItHappen]

my problem is i project the expected pmutual base on win pool odds w/o adjusting for track take because i want the "true" win probability.
twinspires not only adjust the total win pool for track take, they just the amount wagered on each horse to sum to the "adjusted total" giving the whole system a 100 book.
Dumb!!.
i dont think that is a industry standard.
It's certainly a neat way of "hiding" the take!!

thanks makingit

YouBet does exactly the same thing... I end up grossing the #'s back up to calculate the "true" win probability. No idea why they do it the way they do ... I think I asked the question years ago... the answer must have been very compelling :lol: , as it now seems to allude me. Oh well, I have gotten over it. :rolleyes:

Keep Up The Good Work and Best of Luck Formula!

MakinItHappen

[Anderon]

Tonight is an extremely slow night for selections as none have qualified as of yet. :sleeping: Patience is a very big part of this type of selection that I'm doing, so I do apprecite those following along and waitng for a posted selection to happen. :ThmbUp:

[Anderon]

This what my money progression looks like. This is right below my odds progression that I will post next as the file is to large to put them together. All of the screen shots from today are all on one page in my program but I had to break them up into seperate posts as the file is to large for one snap shot.

[Anderon]

Odds progressions

[Anderon]

Todays Final Results


3 - Selections


3 - Wins...............100.0%

0 - Place..............100.0%

0 - Show..............100.0%

0 - 4th.................100.0%


Profits Per $2.00 to Win.....+$5.80

Today's ROI per $2.00.........96.6%


Winning Payoffs......$5.60....$3.60....$2.60

[Anderon]

Last 2 Day Results


5 - Selections


5 - Wins...............100.0%

0 - Place..............100.0%

0 - Show..............100.0%

0 - 4th.................100.0%



Profits Per $2.00 to Win.....+$8.40


ROI per $2.00......................84.0%

[rusrious]

awesome Anderon, great job Sir:ThmbUp:

[Anderon]

awesome Anderon, great job Sir:ThmbUp:

Thanks so much rusrious, I certainly appreciate it !! :)

[formula_2002]

Anderon and Formula,

I believe the wager pool #'s you guys are looking at are AFTER TAKEOUT. Probably not a big deal for what Anderon is doing, as I sense he is focussing more on relative wager flow trends, however, I suppose I could envision a scenario where this could throw a person if he/she were attempting to project pay-offs.

I believe the WPS takeout at Aqueduct is 16% (per trackthieves site).

267,002 WPS Pool per charts
(42,720) Track Takeout at 16%
--------
224,282 Net WPS Pool
224,052 Anderon Feed WPS Totals
--------
230 Difference attributable to Breakage
======

Hope this helps guys and keep up the good work!

Best of Luck to Both of You!

MakinItHappen

this will drive a sane man nuts..
today's (04-09-2009) sa 8th, all three report the same dollar pools!!

[formula_2002]

this will drive a sane man nuts..
today's (04-09-2009) sa 8th, all three report the same dollar pools!!
I just checked a few other tracks they were ok also.
aqu was not.
where the totals are different, they are probably not posting the very last flash

[whobet]

Go Anderon, I know you work very hard at this, great results :)

[MakinItHappen]

this will drive a sane man nuts..
today's (04-09-2009) sa 8th, all three report the same dollar pools!!

Wow, formula, that is crazy... maybe they read the PA board and woke up! :lol:

What 3 sources are you referring to? YouBet still posting wager amounts after takeout...

SA #8

203,777 WPS Pool per charts
(31,382) Track Takeout at 15.4%
--------
172,395 Calculated Net WPS Pool
172,211 YouBet Feed WPS Totals
--------
184 Difference attributable to Breakage
======

YouBet WPS Pool Breakout:
121,488 Win Pool
33,186 Place Pool
17,537 Show Pool

Total WPS: 172,211

Best of Luck Formula!

MakinItHappen

[Anderon]

Go Anderon, I know you work very hard at this, great results :)

Thanks so much Who !! I'm not the only one that works hard at this, I know a few others do to, and you being one of them !! :)


GO WHOBET !!! :ThmbUp:

[CBedo]

Just wondering what percentage of races you look at you're getting a play? Thanks for sharing your work.

[Anderon]

Just wondering what percentage of races you look at you're getting a play? Thanks for sharing your work.

Hi CBedo....I would say around 3-5% of the races. I monitor pretty much all the thoro tracks except a few that are very small in handle. I will generally only get 3-7 plays a day. Thanks for looking in on my work as it is a true pleasure to share my work with everyone on the board. :)

[formula_2002]

Wow, formula, that is crazy... maybe they read the PA board and woke up! :lol:

What 3 sources are you referring to? YouBet still posting wager amounts after takeout...


MakinItHappen

twinspires tote board web site
bris supertote web site
results charts , also posted on bris ewb site.