How to overcome M/L odds

[pktruckdriver]

I am curious how others overcome the M/L odds when you wager ahead of time and can not wait til 2-3 minutes before post time too see if your horses goes up or down in odds.

Y'all know I drive all day, and was wondering if others had or have ways to try to combat M/L odds say 4/1 that end up being 8/5 at post time or 2/1 , thus drastically changing any type of dutch bet you may have had when you go from 4/1 to 2/1 , and you win do you still hit your profit mark on the wager??


Or is this scenario not too much of an issue to actually worry about, this I find hard to believe, unless one only bets 10-20 races a day, then maybe it will not impact you as much, and that is a big maybe.


I was thinking of how I could combat this problem, maybe only raising the M/L odds to 5/1 or 6/1 or but that may leave me very little bettable races.


Does anyone have a few ideas on how to deal with this, or just bet it and forget it, and hope I know how to pick winners, or else all this doesn't matter anyway.


Thanks
Patrick

[proximity]

first off i really wouldn't worry too much about any kind of "dutch" bets because most of the time there are either zero or one overlays in the race.

for single horse bets you can use conditional wagering (twin spires, premier) although you still will be betting without seeing the horse in the post parade and warmup.

in something like pick 3s you'd probably be at the smallest disadvantage betting this way and many times (in the later legs anyway) a horse can be "bet down" to win but you'll still get your price in the pick 3.

[stu]

I can't remember where I read it so I am going to cite from memory without full details or proof.

You want bet downs. The study showed PT odds in comparison to ML odds

Runners who's PT Odds =< 1/4th of their ML Odds

won more than

Runners who's PT Odds =< 1/2 of their ML Odds

won more than

Runners who's PT Odds = ML Odds

won more than

Runners who's PT Odds > double their ML Odds

won more than

Runners who's PT Odds > quadruple their ML Odds

[cj]

Waiting until 2 to 3 minutes before post is FFFFFAAAARRR from any guarantee of getting even close to the odds you want.

[cmoore]

Conditional Wagering Should help to solve your problem...

[pktruckdriver]

I can't remember where I read it so I am going to cite from memory without full details or proof.

You want bet downs. The study showed PT odds in comparison to ML odds

Runners who's PT Odds =< 1/4th of their ML Odds

won more than

Runners who's PT Odds =< 1/2 of their ML Odds

won more than

Runners who's PT Odds = ML Odds

won more than

Runners who's PT Odds > double their ML Odds

won more than

Runners who's PT Odds > quadruple their ML Odds


Let me get this straight, you state that if M/L odds go down, you are more likely to win then if the odds go up from M/L.

Very interesting, and actually makes sense too.


Thansk
Patrick

[stu]

The theory is that if the crowd and the morning line make agree then it is a good sign.

If the crowd disagrees, it means either they have more recent info (like track bias, body language, or weather conditions) than what the ML maker had when (s)he made the line.

The study that I am vaguely citing had supporting data but I am sure that we can all come up with anecdotal evidence to the contrary.

[pktruckdriver]

The theory is that if the crowd and the morning line make agree then it is a good sign.

If the crowd disagrees, it means either they have more recent info (like track bias, body language, or weather conditions) than what the ML maker had when (s)he made the line.

The study that I am vaguely citing had supporting data but I am sure that we can all come up with anecdotal evidence to the contrary.


Stu

I am not trying to say your observation isn't valid, just the opposite, it really makes sense, for all the reason's you state there, but mostly because the track goer's seem to get it pretty close most of the time, so lower odds than the M/L odds would suggest higher % of winners.

But what sucks is when your M/L of 3/1 to 5/1, ends up 2/5 or so, after your bets was made and you come back to see those odds, even if you win, four letter words just keep coming to mind...



Patrick

[stu]

But what sucks is when your M/L of 3/1 to 5/1, ends up 2/5 or so, after your bets was made and you come back to see those odds, even if you win, four letter words just keep coming to mind...


Try to find the 'sweet spot' -- Look for horses that are 12-to-1 on the ML that you think should be 3-to-1 and going off at post-time odds of 6-to-1.

Or remember that another word that starts with 'f' and ends with 'uck' is 'firetruck'

[cmoore]

For me...I don't want to agree with the public..When my 5-1 ML odds goes off at 12-1...That's fantastic. I remember a few weeks ago I wrote on my pps..This runner is an overlay at the ML odds of 8-1...He ended up going off at 18-1 and won..Of course a bettors win percentage will likely be lower betting mid to high priced long shots..But that's where I like to look..

If you prefer to bet lower priced horses..That's where conditional betting will probably help you out more..Say you pick 6 horses for the day and all have ML odds between 3-1 and 6-1..Set the conditional bet minimum at 3-1...Say 4 of those 6 bets were bet at 3-1 or higher..You only have to win one to break even or make a profit..

[JustRalph]

Waiting until 2 to 3 minutes before post is FFFFFAAAARRR from any guarantee of getting even close to the odds you want.


try 2 minutes after the bell............ :bang:

[InFront]

Comparing MLO to post times odds up or down is a waste of time. When querying any database you can run any scenario you like when the MLO is a percentage of what the final odds are. Or you can run the final odds when it is a percentage of what the MLO are. Either way doesn't matter since EVERY scenario comes back a loser.

Now this doesn't mean how your very own "handicapped picks" may do at certain final odds ranges. But think the best thing to do is "bet it and forget it". That is make your picks and bet them and don't worry how players will bet them way down or let them go off as nice overlays at post time. Or of course you can use Conditional Wagering but get ready to many times get aggravated when you watch plays that win and no bet cause of just missing your specific odds range. And whenever you use Minimum Odds ranges in querying a database you will see whatever your picks may be their win% will drop way, way down according to final odds minimums.

[pktruckdriver]

For me...I don't want to agree with the public..When my 5-1 ML odds goes off at 12-1...That's fantastic. I remember a few weeks ago I wrote on my pps..This runner is an overlay at the ML odds of 8-1...He ended up going off at 18-1 and won..Of course a bettors win percentage will likely be lower betting mid to high priced long shots..But that's where I like to look..

If you prefer to bet lower priced horses..That's where conditional betting will probably help you out more..Say you pick 6 horses for the day and all have ML odds between 3-1 and 6-1..Set the conditional bet minimum at 3-1...Say 4 of those 6 bets were bet at 3-1 or higher..You only have to win one to break even or make a profit..



Yes , Yes, now it get it, like CJ and you say set the "conditional Betting within my youbet account at 3/1 or higher, yes , I belive I have that, but never used it yet, awesome Idea, thank you, but Cmoore that does not take away from my horses that are 12/1 or higher either, but the majority are horses within the the range of 2nd - 5th favorite, and yes sometime the fav too, which is then skipped, unless 3/1 or so.

Thanks so much I get it now, technology will help me


patrick

[cmoore]

If you like the horse and you think he is an OVERLAY...Then make the bet...If you can't be there at the time the race goes off..Then you will have to set a minimum..You will get burned like InFront said. Winners at $7 when you set the minimum at $8..Even winners above your minimum..The last tote adjustment might of sent your pick from 5/2 to 7/2..It happens. But in the long run..If you set all bets at a 3-1 minimum..You could come out profitable with a win percentage of 20%.

[fmolf]

i have found better success by just ignoring the morning lines and making my own line....at first i was a bit off in my estimations but after some practice i ahve become quite good at coming very close to the odds the public assigns each horse. i can pretty well judge now which horses are going to be low priced favorites an stay away from those races.....i practiced by handicapping the races making my own line and seeing if my odds were comparable to the publics...when my odds are lower by say 20%...then i have a prime bet

[Nitro]

Let me get this straight, you state that if M/L odds go down, you are more likely to win then if the odds go up from M/L.

Very interesting, and actually makes sense too.


Thansk
PatrickPatrick I’ve read quite a few of your posts on different threads and it seems you have a real interest in this game. I really can’t determine what level of bettor you are, but it seems that you enjoy playing a single entry to win (At least from what I’m reading here). Based on the other input you’re getting on this tread, it sounds like you’re also convinced that “conditional” wagering is the way to go to cover your type of situation. For those making small wagers and staying in the action it might be an adequate solution. It at least maintains a minimum value play that you’ll accept.

It just surprises me that no one has suggested what I think would be a much better approach to playing any race that you might be interested in when you’re on the road. Since you already have an online betting account, why not just buy yourself a halfway decent laptop and an air card subscription from any one of the telecommunication companies. With a simple 12V converter you can plug it right into the truck’s cigarette lighter (to save the batteries). Now you can cruise all day long and monitor and play any tracks that you want.

I say this only because you might very well be missing out on other betting opportunities by locking yourself into a “conditional” wager. Just because the current odds are holding at the M/L (or even moving up or down) doesn’t mean that there isn’t a better bet to be made in the very same race! An odds variation from the M/L could be caused by any number of things. Even a simple scratch in a race could change the entire betting scenario. How about a decoy with a M/L of 20/1 opening up at 5/2! How do think those viewing the tote board will react to that? Of course many would believe it must be live horse only because the odds are so much lower then the M/L.

It seems that many here are under the same naive impression that they’re only betting against the so-called “public”. When in fact the betting population is comprised of more then just “outsiders” looking into a game that’s controlled by those in a group who in many cases depend on making money regularly in order to survive. Ask any typical handicapper if they’re relying on their betting profits to cover daily living expenses. Most will honestly say that if they did, they would probably starve! LOL

Good Luck!

[kenwoodallpromos]

I've read that morning line is based on certain factors that the public goes for, like last race, workout speed, dropping, early speed or closer depending on what race.
Maybe if you find certain horses that you think can compete but thbose factors do not look real good, the odds will hold.
For example, you may find that a horse will have back class, may be stepping up slightly, never show dast works, a so-so jockey, but is usually ITM and has won a couple at the current distance. Maybe the odds will hold and the "comtenders" are erratic.

[raybo]

I have a rule that I never fail to observe: "Never wager on a race without first analyzing the tote action". In other words, if I can't watch each click of the tote, I don't wager, because some of my most profitable wagers are determined by tote patterns.

[green80]

As for as the odds go, the public is surprisingly smart.

[dutchboy]

Kee 4-08-09 Race 3. Winner pays 34.20 and is 4-1 ML
Kee 4-08-09 Race 8. Winner pays 35.40 and is 4.5-1 ML

Study I read indicated the 70-80% of races are won by the 5 lowest ML horses.

[NY BRED]

As the M/L represents the the opinion of how the public will bet any
specific horse, I believe the line is only as good as that individual
party is.

Money pouring in on the obvious "favorite" is only impressive to me
in Md Special Weights where the word is out, and these steam horses
become useful in the exotics.

It would be interesting to compare these lines in the Class "A" tracks
(ie Bel, Sar,Aqu,Sa,CD,TP) to tracks such as Mr,Evd,CT ,TUP
in an effort to prove the validity of the m/l ..:rolleyes: