Pace Handicapping help?

[justin13892002]

I have been studying Tom Brohamers MPH and Sartin's methodology and just curious if anybody can simplify all this for me. I understand how to calculate most of the information. Just wondering if anybody could help me out with either summing it up or simplifying it? Its quite heavy stuff. Thanks

[Ted Craven]

Justin,

It's difficult to sum it up too succinctly - there are some moving parts. The HORSE runs the race (human handlers are secondary). The race is a herd in motion, with horses tending to adopt their typical positions in the herd: Early (boss horses), Presser (mid-pack followers) Sustained (outsiders). Depending on the composition of a race and running Styles, some horses will be more or less advantaged. Measure a horse's ability by 'Total Energy' (sum of sectional velocities), then based on how it apportions out that finite energy (Early/Late and the ratio between) and how it interacts with the other horses of similar styles and what the track, distance structure and surface typically demands (according to your own records or common knowledge) look to one set of readouts, or another. Horses are constantly decelerating as they expend their energy throughout a race. If they are pressed to expend their energy too fast too early, they will decelerate faster than they otherwise would have. Find a way to measure deceleration relative to velocity to see who is slowing down the least in the final fraction, while having enough energy in reserve to start that final section. Software makes this (a lot) easier.

Use the foregoing analysis to find wager opportunities where one or multiple horses offer you better odds than your oddsline estimate (oddsline built from your Sartin factors). Bet or pass according to your edge. Consider keeping your psyche and emotions healthy by accepting a lower net odds in exchange for more frequent hits.

Learn from regular users of the Methodology, ask questions, pose problems for proposed solutions. Keep records of your choices: handicap yourself. Apply a feedback loop, demanding constant improvement, learning from mistakes.

Much of the foregoing is axiomatic in horse race wagering and some of what is 'common knowledge' today entered the lexicon via Sartin's pioneering.

Go here to spend time with folks focusing on the tools and approaches of the Methodology for their bread and butter wagering on a daily basis: www.SartinMethodology.com/forums (http://www.SartinMethodology.com/forums). Folks are working Philly, I believe, as we speak.

Best of luck and skill!

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Justin,

Just thinking about it - some of what I said above will not be found in Brohamer's MPH or in Pace Makes the Race, both explaining state of the art Sartin ideas cira 1991 (e.g. deceleration relative to velocity, early/late ratio). Many folks think that those books represent 'all he wrote' (or all they wrote, in the case of the collective authors of PMTR), but Sartin did another 10 years of work, and more has been done subsequently. That subsequent work is documented in the journal of the Sartin Methodology, 'The Follow Up'.

Cheers,

Ted