Laying usa favorites

[stavo]

Hi guys newbie here, i am currently working on a system laying favorites at the usa tracks, so far just by blindly laying them i have managed to double my bank almost! just in a couple of days, this will no doubt blow up big time! in the long run, as it seams the strike rate on most of the usa tracks is quite high! some as high as 40 odd %, so i thought i would take a closer look at things in the way of there gate draw! to try to improve the favorites chances of losing? and not being clued up on the usa stats terminology i was wondering if any of you guys can tell me what to look for ie, does this come under track bias etc, and how you read in to it, cheers :)

[misscashalot]

Hi guys newbie here, i am currently working on a system laying favorites at the usa tracks, so far just by blindly laying them i have managed to double my bank almost! just in a couple of days, this will no doubt blow up big time! in the long run, as it seams the strike rate on most of the usa tracks is quite high! some as high as 40 odd %, so i thought i would take a closer look at things in the way of there gate draw! to try to improve the favorites chances of losing? and not being clued up on the usa stats terminology i was wondering if any of you guys can tell me what to look for ie, does this come under track bias etc, and how you read in to it, cheers :)

Track bias' change day to day, the same with post positions. I look at these conditions that either favor or work against favorites winning:

Sex of race (either male or female)
Age group (2 yr old, 3 yr olds, 3up, and 4up)
Races are either 1 turn or 2 turn
Dirt or turf surfaces

Now you have 32 categories that have entirely different results pertaining to winning favorites. But as the meet goes on this trend shifts. There is no constant here.

As an example see my post below titled Aqu

I'm sure others here will have entirely different approaches.

[stavo]

Track bias' change day to day, the same with post positions. I look at these conditions that either favor or work against favorites winning:

Sex of race (either male or female)
Age group (2 yr old, 3 yr olds, 3up, and 4up)
Races are either 1 turn or 2 turn
Dirt or turf surfaces

Now you have 32 categories that have entirely different results pertaining to winning favorites. But as the meet goes on this trend shifts. There is no constant here.

As an example see my post below titled Aqu

I'm sure others here will have entirely different approaches.

Many thanks misscashalot :ThmbUp: some things there to look in to, i read your thread about aqu and ouch! i dont think i would have made much laying those favorites! will have to get some studying done and bite the bullet and get to understand some of the pp figures, i have access to thoroghraph as any body used these pp figures and are they good compared to others? cheers......

[misscashalot]

Many thanks misscashalot :ThmbUp: some things there to look in to, i read your thread about aqu and ouch! i dont think i would have made much laying those favorites! will have to get some studying done and bite the bullet and get to understand some of the pp figures, i have access to thoroghraph as any body used these pp figures and are they good compared to others? cheers......

welcome aboard. im sure many of us will be happy to answer any questions you have about American racing. I dont use TG so I cant answer that question.

[stavo]

welcome aboard. im sure many of us will be happy to answer any questions you have about American racing. I dont use TG so I cant answer that question.

Thanks for the welcome misscashalot :) TG and brisnet.co.uk are the only one's i know of that give you any real info for free on american racing here in the uk, TG has a lot more to offer in the way of figure's and graph's etc, but you have to have a betfair account to access it, everything else i have found you got to pay for unfortunately.

[misscashalot]

Thanks for the welcome misscashalot :) TG and brisnet.co.uk are the only one's i know of that give you any real info for free on american racing here in the uk, TG has a lot more to offer in the way of figure's and graph's etc, but you have to have a betfair account to access it, everything else i have found you got to pay for unfortunately.

You may want to save charts at www.brisnet.com (http://www.brisnet.com). They are free and are available for all US tracks. Click on Results and Charts then Instant Charts (Free)

[stavo]

You may want to save charts at www.brisnet.com (http://www.brisnet.com). They are free and are available for all US tracks. Click on Results and Charts then Instant Charts (Free)

Great! thanks again :)

[andicap]

Hey, Stavo, where in the U.K. are you located? I'm an American living in the Southwest.

[stavo]

Hey, Stavo, where in the U.K. are you located? I'm an American living in the Southwest.

Hi andi, i am in the south east not to far from brighton

[andicap]

I might be able to offer you a hand on U.S. racing -- do you also follow U.K. racing?

Do you watch ATR in the evening?

I haven't played "laying" yet at Betfair but all good handicappers are in effect making that bet all the time because they want to identify races where the favorite is particularly vulnerable.

No time for much detail but one of the things I look for is a bad pace set-up or a favorite running against the grain of the track. PP might play into it but it's not as big a factor in the U.S. as it might be in U.K. racing due to having smaller field. But yes, it can be a factor absolutely. For example a closer getting the rail is often a disadvantage as is a speed horse starting outside when there are several speed horses inside of him especially when the race starts near a turn.

[stavo]

I might be able to offer you a hand on U.S. racing -- do you also follow U.K. racing?

Do you watch ATR in the evening?

I haven't played "laying" yet at Betfair but all good handicappers are in effect making that bet all the time because they want to identify races where the favorite is particularly vulnerable.

No time for much detail but one of the things I look for is a bad pace set-up or a favorite running against the grain of the track. PP might play into it but it's not as big a factor in the U.S. as it might be in U.K. racing due to having smaller field. But yes, it can be a factor absolutely. For example a closer getting the rail is often a disadvantage as is a speed horse starting outside when there are several speed horses inside of him especially when the race starts near a turn.


Thanks andi thats all good info mate :ThmbUp: i have played a fair bit on the uk tracks (not as much as my brothers 40 odd years though) but i do occasionally surprise him with a few new angle's he has not thought of ;) also done a bit of trading on there to but i dont have a big enough bank for that most times, i used to watch ATR when i had a sky tv package but having to tighten one's belt since this recession has hit so dont have it atm, i use the internets live streaming to watch the american race's as most tracks seam have there own or other portals, does me fine!

Laying rather than backing in the couple of years i have been betting is by far! for me the best way to go, i dont have the handicapping skills and knowledge the many guys on here have and will probably not ever gain them as i am just about to turn 49 years old in a week or so and time is every ones enemy in that respect, so i will have to try and cut some corners some how? one good thing i suppose ( and the brother also told me this!) i dont have to many bad habits that otherwise may have crept in like he has :)

[Bettowin]

I wish I could have a valid Betfair account. Anyone here in the USA use Betfair?

[classhandicapper]

I wish I could have a valid Betfair account. Anyone here in the USA use Betfair?

You might want to try Ehorse Exchange. It's not as liquid, but it's an exchange.

[stavo]

You might want to try Ehorse Exchange. It's not as liquid, but it's an exchange.

Hi class handicapper, i just had a look at ehorse but i could not see where you can place a laybet? or do they not allow them?