Friesan Fire

[tribecaagent]

Does this horse have any negatives?

Pros
1. Fast - speed figures are quick and improving
2. Overcome Adversity - rough trip (rank & in-between horses) in Risen Star (not forgetting that this was a 12 horse field) and slop in LA. Derby
3. Timing into KY Derby - will have a touch under 7 weeks rest
4. Positional Speed - always breaks sharp; can rate in behind horses, be up-close, or on the lead
5. Breeding - by AP Indy - nuff said
6. Trainer - Larry Jones - nuff said
7. Jockey - Wayne Lukas has said that he doesn't want a jock losin' it during "My old Kentucky Home".....Saez has proven himself

On top of all that, he'll be a forgotten fourth choice in the betting.

[joanied]

Does this horse have any negatives?

Pros
1. Fast - speed figures are quick and improving
2. Overcome Adversity - rough trip (rank & in-between horses) in Risen Star (not forgetting that this was a 12 horse field) and slop in LA. Derby
3. Timing into KY Derby - will have a touch under 7 weeks rest
4. Positional Speed - always breaks sharp; can rate in behind horses, be up-close, or on the lead
5. Breeding - by AP Indy - nuff said
6. Trainer - Larry Jones - nuff said
7. Jockey - Wayne Lukas has said that he doesn't want a jock losin' it during "My old Kentucky Home".....Saez has proven himself

On top of all that, he'll be a forgotten fourth choice in the betting.

He's been one of my top 5 all along... thanks for posting this...

[jjm323]

He's been one of my top 5 all along... thanks for posting this...

I like FF, but if I was to play devil's advocate, I'd say you can argue that his best effort (and an isolated high effort) was on the slop, and 7 weeks may be too long.

[tribecaagent]

My opinion of the 7 weeks is a positive. Ya think Larry Jones knows a thing or two about KY Derby preparation?

Yes, he did jump-up on the slop. However, what if the that race was (speed figure wise) just him moving forward in his development and not ONLY due to the slop? He did have a perfect trip in the LA Derby, but had a rough one in the Risen Star (on a fast racetrack) and still won.

Granted, the slop race was a jump-up, but at least there's no doubting the varient on either day.

[WinterTriangle]

On top of all that, he'll be a forgotten fourth choice in the betting.

Don't bet on that. I have him in my exacta right now. :)

[joanied]

I like FF, but if I was to play devil's advocate, I'd say you can argue that his best effort (and an isolated high effort) was on the slop, and 7 weeks may be too long.

tribecaagent kinda said what I would in reply to you,jjm323...I would not second guess Larry Jones...and hey...what if ir rains on Derby day? FF can deal with either situation as far as track surface...he'd love the slop, but can win on a fast track.

[westny]

Slop or no slop in LA...that was one impressive race by FF...he left the rest of the field in the dust in that loooooooong stretch.

But, I'd have to agree, training up to the Derby is NOT the best approach.
Didn't most of the recent KD winners run in a big prep least 4 weeks before the Derby?

[joanied]

Don't bet on that. I have him in my exacta right now. :)

There ya go:ThmbUp:

[joanied]

I like FF, but if I was to play devil's advocate, I'd say you can argue that his best effort (and an isolated high effort) was on the slop, and 7 weeks may be too long.

Maybe FF just doesn't care if it's sloppy or not:jump:... I agree, 7 weeks seems a hell of a long time...but again, Larry knows this horse like the back of his hand...so, I for one, won't question his tactics.
:)

[GaryG]

I think he will be fit for the Derby and he looks good enough to run with IWR or any of them. The SA Derby field looked weak and I don't see Pioneer as a top contender. IWR looks brand new on dirt.

[joanied]

I think he will be fit for the Derby and he looks good enough to run with IWR or any of them. The SA Derby field looked weak and I don't see Pioneer as a top contender. IWR looks brand new on dirt.

I still see Pioneer as one of the top contenders...I cannot doubt Bob Baffert...but, I am sooooooo glad you also beleive FF will be a fit horse come Derby Day:ThmbUp:

[tribecaagent]

Don't bet on that. I have him in my exacta right now. :)

The majority of Derby lists that I've seen have a combination of Quality Road, I want Revenge and Pioneer of the Nile in the top spots. As the saying goes "out of sight, out of mind". Now, if Old Fashoined runs a dandy on Saturday, he probably moves ahead of FF.

[WinterTriangle]

The majority of Derby lists that I've seen have a combination of Quality Road, I want Revenge and Pioneer of the Nile in the top spots. As the saying goes "out of sight, out of mind". Now, if Old Fashoined runs a dandy on Saturday, he probably moves ahead of FF.

Majority of lists I've seen also have those 3. Hey, they are great horses, no arguments there.

OUt of sight out of mind, true, but not for those of us weird people who start in January and continue fully immersed with our "derby fever" for 5-6 months. :lol:

I don't think it matters. ;) A few years ago, I did tons of research and paid attention, and didn't have the winners. The next year I didn't tune in until 7 days before the Derby and I had the winners. There's so much "racing luck" on such a long road, and in a field of 20.....just look what happened with IC already in his paddock incident, and with The Papplemouse with heat in his leg. :bang:

Probably best to *decide* during post parade, huh? :jump:

I just get into it out of sheer enjoyment, have never thought of it as the best "wagering" race.

[Robert Fischer]

:ThmbUp:

I'll be putting out my updated list soon, and Friesan Fire is still my number 1 (has been for a couple months now).

[Bettowin]

The majority of Derby lists that I've seen have a combination of Quality Road, I want Revenge and Pioneer of the Nile in the top spots. As the saying goes "out of sight, out of mind". Now, if Old Fashoined runs a dandy on Saturday, he probably moves ahead of FF.

I'll be on the rail Saturday to see Old Fashioned but from what I have seen and from the numbers I have he looks like another Hard Spun. Not bad company but he has no shot in the Derby unless......... :)

F Fire is the horse to beat in the Jones' barn IMO.

[tribecaagent]

I'll be on the rail Saturday to see Old Fashioned but from what I have seen and from the numbers I have he looks like another Hard Spun. Not bad company but he has no shot in the Derby unless......... :)

F Fire is the horse to beat in the Jones' barn IMO.

I agree. I'm hoping OF runs well Saturday to attract some media attention and subsequently the betting windows.

[Bruddah]

I agree. I'm hoping OF runs well Saturday to attract some media attention and subsequently the betting windows.

I'm waiting for the field to be finalized on Wednesday. However, Old Fashioned ran the identical race in the Rebel as he did in the Southwest. Only this time, he had a closer which could close the final furlong in 12 and change, while he was "puking the bit" after a mile in 13+ seconds. Old Fashioned might hold for 3rd but, I see him much further back, maybe 5th. The horse has severe limitations on distance, due to his pedigree.

Personally, I am trying to decide on which shipper will win the Arky Derby. Speaking frankly, Unless one of the shippers jumps off the page, I don't see a Ky Derby quality horse in the Ark Derby this year. Pains me to say it and to some degree I hope I'm proven wrong. But, I don't thinnnn soooo Looooosie!

[tribecaagent]

I said I'm hoping, not planning......ha!

[W2G]

Does this horse have any negatives?

Pros
1. Fast - speed figures are quick and improving
2. Overcome Adversity - rough trip (rank & in-between horses) in Risen Star (not forgetting that this was a 12 horse field) and slop in LA. Derby
3. Timing into KY Derby - will have a touch under 7 weeks rest
4. Positional Speed - always breaks sharp; can rate in behind horses, be up-close, or on the lead
5. Breeding - by AP Indy - nuff said
6. Trainer - Larry Jones - nuff said
7. Jockey - Wayne Lukas has said that he doesn't want a jock losin' it during "My old Kentucky Home".....Saez has proven himself

On top of all that, he'll be a forgotten fourth choice in the betting.

I'm neutral on him at this point, but here are some potential negatives to consider.
1. Others have better speed figs
2. Never run longer than 8.5f
3. 7 weeks off. This is subjective but I think he needs a race. Jones uses the sheets and is trying to manufacture a desired pattern.
3. Bold Ruler sire line represents a long string of failure in recent KY Derby history
4. LA 3YO series and LA Derby rarely proves to be fertile ground for KY Derby success

[tribecaagent]

I'm neutral on him at this point, but here are some potential negatives to consider.
1. Others have better speed figs
2. Never run longer than 8.5f
3. 7 weeks off. This is subjective but I think he needs a race. Jones uses the sheets and is trying to manufacture a desired pattern.
3. Bold Ruler sire line represents a long string of failure in recent KY Derby history
4. LA 3YO series and LA Derby rarely proves to be fertile ground for KY Derby success

Thank you for this W2G. I'll list my views to each:
1. I think this is a positive. He's yet to run that huge "out of line" number and he's certainly not slow. Let's face it, the horse that wins this race needs to move forward on Derby day....whichever one that may be. My thought process is the spacing will give him "muscle development" needed for the explosion.
2. I don't think this means much.
3. Obviously, this is an issue. However, the game has changed and so have the so-called rules. It seems every year we've re-written the "rule book" on how to win this race and I think this could be another one of those "the last horse to do this was...."
4. I don't think this means much. AP Indy's can run all day and FF's female line traces back to a New Zealand family of stayers
5. I think the key word you used here was rarely. Yes, Pyro is fresh in our minds, but let's not forget Grindstone

[GaryG]

Speed figures from 8.5-9F races are not the best gauge of ability at 10F. I watched him closely at FG and he sure looks like he will stay the distance. Of course, you never know.

[strapper]

Freisian Fire is still my Derby pick, has been for several weeks now and I'm not changing. I couldn't understand Larry Jones thinking Old Fashioned was his big horse.

[W2G]

Thank you for this W2G. I'll list my views to each:
1. I think this is a positive. He's yet to run that huge "out of line" number and he's certainly not slow. Let's face it, the horse that wins this race needs to move forward on Derby day....whichever one that may be. My thought process is the spacing will give him "muscle development" needed for the explosion.
2. I don't think this means much.
3. Obviously, this is an issue. However, the game has changed and so have the so-called rules. It seems every year we've re-written the "rule book" on how to win this race and I think this could be another one of those "the last horse to do this was...."
4. I don't think this means much. AP Indy's can run all day and FF's female line traces back to a New Zealand family of stayers
5. I think the key word you used here was rarely. Yes, Pyro is fresh in our minds, but let's not forget Grindstone

I don't necessarily disagree with any of your points. As stated, I feel neutral about his chances but that could change in the coming weeks. Putting aside the Bold Ruler sire line angle, this guy is a wicked stew of the very best of American and Aussie bloodlines. The stamina influences on top and bottom are exceptional and it would be a shock if he turned out to be distance-challenged. Still, the 7 week layoff will be hard for me to forgive. And no breezes since the LA Derby is curious. I suspect the way he trains at Churchill (while under a microscope of course, like all of them) will go a long way in shaping my final opinion.

[tribecaagent]

It would seem that LJ wants to put weight on without the works. I remember Monarchos had no works between the Wood and Derby....and we all know how that went.

It all comes down to believing in Larry Jones.

The majority believe that the 7 weeks is a negative.....and that's why this horse will be an overlay come Derby day.

[joanied]

Old Fashioned & Freisan Fire have been on top of my list since day one...and these latest posts are great stuff...

Winter Triangle...love your post...right on!! Handicappers drive themselves nuts this time of the year...there are simply too many variables to consider when trying to handicap the Derby....numbers, numbers, numbers:bang: make you crazy:)
Your post made me laugh...all that research and no winner...jump in a week before...pick the winner:faint: no one knows who's gonna jump up and win...but, it sure is a ton of fun playing with all this...and like you, I am so :jump: I can hardly stand it.

Anyway...I hope Old Fashioned runs a good one on Saturday...I still beleive he can get the distance and is sure one of them that CAN win the Derby...but Freisan Fire is THE one...wouldn't it be absolutely super if Larry finishes 1st & 2nd in the Derby...what a fabulous thing that would be:ThmbUp:

Warning, warning, warning...do not under estimate Larry Jones:)

[GaryG]

The Derby brings out all these statistics about time between races needed, number of races needed, post positions that can't win, etc. And they can't be the 2yo champ, well not until Street Sense. That draynay character was an extreme example. Can't prep at this track, fractions and final time have to be this and on and on. You can be sure that the field will be full and the pace will be balls to the wall. As has been said, FF is almost sure to be an overlay for many of these reasons.

[joanied]

The Derby brings out all these statistics about time between races needed, number of races needed, post positions that can't win, etc. And they can't be the 2yo champ, well not until Street Sense. That draynay character was an extreme example. Can't prep at this track, fractions and final time have to be this and on and on. You can be sure that the field will be full and the pace will be balls to the wall. As has been said, FF is almost sure to be an overlay for many of these reasons.

Wish I had someplace here to place a few Derby bets...especially on FF:ThmbUp:

OMG...I'd almost forgotten draynay...geeze, if he was still on board...he'd be driving :bang: us crazy, never mind numbers;)

wonder if he's lurking :eek:

[tribecaagent]

Wish I had someplace here to place a few Derby bets...especially on FF:ThmbUp:

OMG...I'd almost forgotten draynay...geeze, if he was still on board...he'd be driving :bang: us crazy, never mind numbers;)

wonder if he's lurking :eek:

Sure you can't find someone in the witness protection program up there?.....LOL

Just got this new phone so I can make these silly comments anywhere....

[Wiley]

As has been said, FF is almost sure to be an overlay for many of these reasons.
I think you are right on most of your points with this colt but given always the possible high attrition level of who makes the race, Quality Road? there is a chance he ends up one of the favorites. If all go as is he might very well be an overlay but Jones has finished solid seconds the last two years so he will be noticed.

The interesting one for me is the lack of a prep at a mile and an eighth. Off the top of my head going back over thirty years I don't think a Derby winner has ever done this, granted the number that has tried is probably low and those that did were probably not of FF's quality. Jones did the same with Eight Belles last year but that was tough for a filly to run that distance as a prep without going against the boys. He is a nice, well bred colt on the improve under a good horseman so he should be ready. His tractable style of running to me is always a plus in maneuvering through the always huge Derby field.

[tribecaagent]

Friesan Fire worked this morning at Keeneland 1:00.80

[joanied]

Friesan Fire worked this morning at Keeneland 1:00.80

That's a nice one...did you see it? I wonder how he looked? Good and strong, I hope.
Thanks for that.:)

[joanied]

Sure you can't find someone in the witness protection program up there?.....LOL

Just got this new phone so I can make these silly comments anywhere....

What's a new phone got to do with silly comments:confused: ...but, anyway, not sure what witness protection has to do with my wishing I could bet here...maybe if we had a few 'wise guys' running book...that'd work:D ;)
Maybe Joe Pesci:jump:

[tribecaagent]

What's a new phone got to do with silly comments:confused: ...but, anyway, not sure what witness protection has to do with my wishing I could bet here...maybe if we had a few 'wise guys' running book...that'd work:D ;)
Maybe Joe Pesci:jump:

Hey Joanie,

I think half way through your post you understood what I meant. I'd bet, somewhere inWyoming, there's a half-assed stool pigeon who was a bookmaker. You might want to check the tanning salon.....ha!

I didn't see FF's work; it was a stable mail alert. I love the fact he's working at Keeneland. Last year Tale of Ekati put in work(s) at Keeneland and he ran a very respectable fourth.

P.s. - I really like your new avatar

[dylbert]

As someone who was impressed watching Friesan Fire win Risen Star in February and awed when he crushed Louisiana Derby field in March, I am firmly in his camp.

Friesan Fire has done things right, well, and consistently. He trains well, he stalks, he handles traffic well, and when he strikes the lead he does not dawdle. Friesan Fire has learned well from Larry Jones and his team. Friesan Fire is winner.

Saturday should offer some indication of quality of his last race. Papa Clem, who finished second in Louisiana Derby, participates in Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. While Terrain, third in Louisiana, hopes to move forward with win in Toyoda Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Papa Clem can confirm that he is dirt horse and Terrain can gain more race experience.

Just over 24 days remain until first Saturday in May. Place your wagers early to avoid getting shut out at the windows!

[tribecaagent]

Excellent point about Papa Clem.

[Bettowin]

I am heading to Oaklawn in the next hour, 6 hour drive, but will get photos of Papa Clem and the rest of the Derby field. If people wish I can post a link for all to enjoy. I surely am not a professional photographer but do get lucky every once in awhile:)

[joanied]

[QUOTE=joanied]Sometimes it takes me a while :eek: ...might be your new phone that threw me off...I'm still looking for Joe Pesci...maybe one of the tanning salons:D

me too...Larry J knows what he's doing (DUH!!) and that breeze was probably just it.

PS...thanks for the compliment.:)

[joanied]

I am heading to Oaklawn in the next hour, 6 hour drive, but will get photos of Papa Clem and the rest of the Derby field. If people wish I can post a link for all to enjoy. I surely am not a professional photographer but do get lucky every once in awhile:)

That'd be great...we'd all appreciate it, no doubt.
Have a fabulous time:jump:

[Robert Fischer]

He's my #1 , and he should be a decent price with all the questions regarding the 7 week layoff, and lack of 1 1/8th prep. Whether or not Quality Road goes will be a big factor on everyone's price.

One of my friends has a $200 futures wager on Friesan Fire at what he says is 20-1. Not bad at all.

[tribecaagent]

He's my #1 , and he should be a decent price with all the questions regarding the 7 week layoff, and lack of 1 1/8th prep. Whether or not Quality Road goes will be a big factor on everyone's price.

One of my friends has a $200 futures wager on Friesan Fire at what he says is 20-1. Not bad at all.

Robert,

Like the list very much. I just want to point out that FF "skipping" the Blue Grass is inaccurate. Larry Jones stated months ago, that FF's final prep will be the LA Derby. This decision is not an audible, it's by design.

[Robert Fischer]

Robert,

Like the list very much. I just want to point out that FF "skipping" the Blue Grass is inaccurate. Larry Jones stated months ago, that FF's final prep will be the LA Derby. This decision is not an audible, it's by design.

Thanks
"Skipping" wasn't the right word there.
Jones stated in his podcast (http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/talkin-horses/archive/2009/03/27/larry-jones-podcast-listen-now.aspx) on Bloodhorse's Talkin Horses, as recently as March 27th [there is a] "possibility he could still run in the Blue Grass".
I agree that the design has been to work up to the Kentucky Derby. I have to say that I like his specific chances better staying out of the Blue Grass, and was hoping that he would not enter.

[tribecaagent]

Thanks
"Skipping" wasn't the right word there.
Jones stated in his podcast (http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/talkin-horses/archive/2009/03/27/larry-jones-podcast-listen-now.aspx) on Bloodhorse's Talkin Horses, as recently as March 27th [there is a] "possibility he could still run in the Blue Grass".
I agree that the design has been to work up to the Kentucky Derby. I have to say that I like his specific chances better staying out of the Blue Grass, and was hoping that he would not enter.


Let's assume Old Fashioned wins and Quality Road runs. What kind of price do you think he'll be?

[Robert Fischer]

Let's assume Old Fashioned wins and Quality Road runs. What kind of price do you think he'll be?

Somewhere in the neighborhood of 6 or 7-1.

tough to guess.

[GaryG]

Somewhere in the neighborhood of 6 or 7-1.

tough to guess.I agree. I was all set to bet him at 8-1 in the last futures pool but decided he might offer close to that at the track.