JohnnyBatTBD
04-03-2009, 07:36 AM
Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....19-60 (32%) -$8.20 (19-13-7) (65% ITM)
On Wednesday, I had no prime or soft selections.
Among my contenders only selections:
My 4th race $4 saver exacta returned $17.20,
My 8th race $4 saver exacta returned $24.60,
My 10th race $6 saver exacta returned $86.20, and
I had the winner of the 11th, R True Lady, $3.20.
So it goes...
My free selections are history in one more month, so get your annual subscription now for $25 before the 2009-2010 Tampa meeting begins and the new $99 subscription rate is implemented. See my website for details.
I’ve gotten some positive feedback on the contenders only ratings but all agree that the numerical system should be replaced with an alphabetical system. This will reduce confusion by having fewer numbers to look at. So instead of a 1-10 Contenders Only rating there will now be a rating of A, B, C or D (with A getting my strongest support).
Thanks again for the comments.
Friday’s selections at www.thetbdhandicapper.com :
1st – Contenders Only (C) – Alton Ferry (9) has a Change-of-Pace going and comes back fast for winless Edlkraut, who has not been shut out in L3T. She had three fastback winners in L3T too! Alton Ferry’s %E is just outside the upper parameter for 8.5F, but is closest to the par %E than any of the other Sprint-to-Route runners entered today. Glory Cat (6) has the best speed figs hands down but can’t seem to get home first. Win (9), Saver Exacta 6/9 and Trifectas 6,9/1,2,5,8/5,6,9
2nd – Contenders Only (C) – McLovin (4). Four of the horses that McLovin faced in Tampa debut have gone on to win this season, including Mr. Flatter who won two. McLovin’s running style is flexible and that will provide him with a tactical advantage here. The layoff raises eyebrows, but Wright does win with layoffs at Tampa. I don’t like Western Night (6) here but on Tuesday and Wednesday, 9 of 11 dirt sprint winners had the lead at the 2nd Call. Nonetheless, Western Night will be pressured and he usually folds under those circumstances. Win (4), Saver Exacta 6/4 and Trifecta Box 2,4,5,6
3rd – Contenders Only (D) – Early Again (12) had best fig in the field in last at 7F and %E is in the zone for 8.18F. Fontana wins with Sprint-to-Route types. Win (12) and Saver Exactas 7,9/12 or Win (7) and Saver Exacta 9/7 (if the 12 is out) and Trifectas 7,9,12/5,8,10/7,9,12
4th – Contenders Only (B) – Fire Ridge (5) has the best fig in the field in last and that was after checking up in deep stretch when the winner drifted into the rail late. Allen’s claim of foul was not allowed (ostensibly because Fire Ridge was weakening and could not have won the race anyway). Until I see a reason to change my opinion, I’m sticking with speed in dirt sprints (see my notes on race 2). Win (5), Saver Exactas 4,9/5 and Trifectas 5/All/4,9
5th – Contenders Only (C) – Privy Seal (10) had best final fraction in last as the beaten favorite, has two seconds this year and has won at today’s distance before. Transit of Venus (6) had great final fractions in last two and Ness wins 61% with the L1-3 + S + Dropdown angle. Cruz is hot, with 8-12 ITM in the last week. Quite the Guy (9) has only one turf win and that was at today’s distance. Is in great form now. I can see the Allen’s plotting a coup here. Lord Louis’ (4) final fractions have been getting softer and softer since the fall and I’m not expecting much from Lord Louis. Win (9) ON OFF TRACK ONLY, Exacta Box 6,9,10 and Saver Exactas 4/6,9,10 and Trifectas 6,9,10/3,4/6,9,10
6th – Contenders Only (B) – Spanish Ambassador (8) gets the nod on front running style in this dirt sprint. Shortens up today. Centeno has the return call. McMullen had two layoff winners L2T. Scace has Penn Atlantic (1a) who had the best fig in the field in maiden win. Scace wins 60% with L1-3 + Rightback + Up In Class angle. Win (8), Saver Exactas 1a,7/8 and Trifectas 1a,8/All/1a,8
7th – TURF ONLY - Contenders Only (A) – Coffee Cake (1) goes for Matz who is 3-9 on the grass and two of Matz’s three grass winners were Layoff + Shipper Types. Matz has a good turf rider in Montalvo. Star Fleet Command (3) is a Dennis Manning charge and he has five winners on the grass this season. Manning does not fool around. Star Fleet Command’s dam has one turf winner. Centeno is 3-5 with Manning this year. Storm Harbor (5) would be a soft wager off NY efforts and fast closing first try at the Downs, but Gonzalez has an unimpressive 5% strike rate in turf events. Exacta Box 1,3,5 and Trifectas 1,3,5/4,7,8/1,3,5
8th – Contenders Only (C) – Once again I’m going with the early speed, so Algazara (7) gets the nod. Algazara dueled for five furlongs in last before weakening in the stretch. May have it all her own way up front today. Was above par two back in maiden win. Win (7), Saver Exactas 1,2,11/7 and Trifectas 2,7,11/1,8/2,7,11
9th – Contenders Only (B) – Castles in the Sky (10) is Ness’s Lookinforthesecret story of 2008-2009. Claimed for $12500 last summer Castle has been on a roll ever since. The guy must have some eye. Goes off 2-5 today and is therefore unplayable but will be fun to watch. The Bennetts have three going. Maybe they’re gonna try to take Castles out of the race, but they’ll have to catch him first. Ruby’s Red Socks (4) has some monstrous figs and Ziadie is 100% ITM going Dirt-to-Turf in L2T. My Best Pal Red (7) has nothing to be ashamed of, is 3-4 ITM on the grass and Bennett is 68% ITM with L1-3s.Win (10), Saver Exacta 4/10 and Trifectas 4,6,7/All/4,6,7 (if Castles is out of the money, you go home a winner for the season with this bet).
10th – Contenders Only (B) – Soy Latino (8) was the only horse in the race that was above par in last by my numbers. Ziadie is 78% ITM with 2L1-3s. Ziadie/RoHo are 40-56 ITM with 21 wins. Win (8), Saver Exactas 1,2/8 and Trifectas 1,2,8/1,2,8/4,6,10
11th – Contenders Only (C) – Tytus (10) was checked up for racing room on the turn, lost about 1 ˝ lengths in the process and finished strongly, gaining on the winner in the shadow of the wire in last. Had the best fig in the field in that one. Centeno has the return call for Ness. Sprint-to-Route is doable but not at the 3-2 ML. CR Dancing Fox (1) goes for Frances Gogas, a layoff specialist. Four of Gogas’ six winners in L3T were layoffs. Exacta Box 1,6,10 and Trifectas 10/All/1,6
Good luck and good racing!
Johnny B.
Soft Wager Results....19-60 (32%) -$8.20 (19-13-7) (65% ITM)
On Wednesday, I had no prime or soft selections.
Among my contenders only selections:
My 4th race $4 saver exacta returned $17.20,
My 8th race $4 saver exacta returned $24.60,
My 10th race $6 saver exacta returned $86.20, and
I had the winner of the 11th, R True Lady, $3.20.
So it goes...
My free selections are history in one more month, so get your annual subscription now for $25 before the 2009-2010 Tampa meeting begins and the new $99 subscription rate is implemented. See my website for details.
I’ve gotten some positive feedback on the contenders only ratings but all agree that the numerical system should be replaced with an alphabetical system. This will reduce confusion by having fewer numbers to look at. So instead of a 1-10 Contenders Only rating there will now be a rating of A, B, C or D (with A getting my strongest support).
Thanks again for the comments.
Friday’s selections at www.thetbdhandicapper.com :
1st – Contenders Only (C) – Alton Ferry (9) has a Change-of-Pace going and comes back fast for winless Edlkraut, who has not been shut out in L3T. She had three fastback winners in L3T too! Alton Ferry’s %E is just outside the upper parameter for 8.5F, but is closest to the par %E than any of the other Sprint-to-Route runners entered today. Glory Cat (6) has the best speed figs hands down but can’t seem to get home first. Win (9), Saver Exacta 6/9 and Trifectas 6,9/1,2,5,8/5,6,9
2nd – Contenders Only (C) – McLovin (4). Four of the horses that McLovin faced in Tampa debut have gone on to win this season, including Mr. Flatter who won two. McLovin’s running style is flexible and that will provide him with a tactical advantage here. The layoff raises eyebrows, but Wright does win with layoffs at Tampa. I don’t like Western Night (6) here but on Tuesday and Wednesday, 9 of 11 dirt sprint winners had the lead at the 2nd Call. Nonetheless, Western Night will be pressured and he usually folds under those circumstances. Win (4), Saver Exacta 6/4 and Trifecta Box 2,4,5,6
3rd – Contenders Only (D) – Early Again (12) had best fig in the field in last at 7F and %E is in the zone for 8.18F. Fontana wins with Sprint-to-Route types. Win (12) and Saver Exactas 7,9/12 or Win (7) and Saver Exacta 9/7 (if the 12 is out) and Trifectas 7,9,12/5,8,10/7,9,12
4th – Contenders Only (B) – Fire Ridge (5) has the best fig in the field in last and that was after checking up in deep stretch when the winner drifted into the rail late. Allen’s claim of foul was not allowed (ostensibly because Fire Ridge was weakening and could not have won the race anyway). Until I see a reason to change my opinion, I’m sticking with speed in dirt sprints (see my notes on race 2). Win (5), Saver Exactas 4,9/5 and Trifectas 5/All/4,9
5th – Contenders Only (C) – Privy Seal (10) had best final fraction in last as the beaten favorite, has two seconds this year and has won at today’s distance before. Transit of Venus (6) had great final fractions in last two and Ness wins 61% with the L1-3 + S + Dropdown angle. Cruz is hot, with 8-12 ITM in the last week. Quite the Guy (9) has only one turf win and that was at today’s distance. Is in great form now. I can see the Allen’s plotting a coup here. Lord Louis’ (4) final fractions have been getting softer and softer since the fall and I’m not expecting much from Lord Louis. Win (9) ON OFF TRACK ONLY, Exacta Box 6,9,10 and Saver Exactas 4/6,9,10 and Trifectas 6,9,10/3,4/6,9,10
6th – Contenders Only (B) – Spanish Ambassador (8) gets the nod on front running style in this dirt sprint. Shortens up today. Centeno has the return call. McMullen had two layoff winners L2T. Scace has Penn Atlantic (1a) who had the best fig in the field in maiden win. Scace wins 60% with L1-3 + Rightback + Up In Class angle. Win (8), Saver Exactas 1a,7/8 and Trifectas 1a,8/All/1a,8
7th – TURF ONLY - Contenders Only (A) – Coffee Cake (1) goes for Matz who is 3-9 on the grass and two of Matz’s three grass winners were Layoff + Shipper Types. Matz has a good turf rider in Montalvo. Star Fleet Command (3) is a Dennis Manning charge and he has five winners on the grass this season. Manning does not fool around. Star Fleet Command’s dam has one turf winner. Centeno is 3-5 with Manning this year. Storm Harbor (5) would be a soft wager off NY efforts and fast closing first try at the Downs, but Gonzalez has an unimpressive 5% strike rate in turf events. Exacta Box 1,3,5 and Trifectas 1,3,5/4,7,8/1,3,5
8th – Contenders Only (C) – Once again I’m going with the early speed, so Algazara (7) gets the nod. Algazara dueled for five furlongs in last before weakening in the stretch. May have it all her own way up front today. Was above par two back in maiden win. Win (7), Saver Exactas 1,2,11/7 and Trifectas 2,7,11/1,8/2,7,11
9th – Contenders Only (B) – Castles in the Sky (10) is Ness’s Lookinforthesecret story of 2008-2009. Claimed for $12500 last summer Castle has been on a roll ever since. The guy must have some eye. Goes off 2-5 today and is therefore unplayable but will be fun to watch. The Bennetts have three going. Maybe they’re gonna try to take Castles out of the race, but they’ll have to catch him first. Ruby’s Red Socks (4) has some monstrous figs and Ziadie is 100% ITM going Dirt-to-Turf in L2T. My Best Pal Red (7) has nothing to be ashamed of, is 3-4 ITM on the grass and Bennett is 68% ITM with L1-3s.Win (10), Saver Exacta 4/10 and Trifectas 4,6,7/All/4,6,7 (if Castles is out of the money, you go home a winner for the season with this bet).
10th – Contenders Only (B) – Soy Latino (8) was the only horse in the race that was above par in last by my numbers. Ziadie is 78% ITM with 2L1-3s. Ziadie/RoHo are 40-56 ITM with 21 wins. Win (8), Saver Exactas 1,2/8 and Trifectas 1,2,8/1,2,8/4,6,10
11th – Contenders Only (C) – Tytus (10) was checked up for racing room on the turn, lost about 1 ˝ lengths in the process and finished strongly, gaining on the winner in the shadow of the wire in last. Had the best fig in the field in that one. Centeno has the return call for Ness. Sprint-to-Route is doable but not at the 3-2 ML. CR Dancing Fox (1) goes for Frances Gogas, a layoff specialist. Four of Gogas’ six winners in L3T were layoffs. Exacta Box 1,6,10 and Trifectas 10/All/1,6
Good luck and good racing!
Johnny B.