Low place and show pools on 'mystery' horses.

[Imriledup]

There seems to be some type of phenomenon (for lack of a better word) on horses who are 'all or nothing' types. Those horses seem to be good (if there is such a thing) place and show bets. I guess the fans think that those horses will either win, or run out.

I'm going to give an example of a race from Thursday at Santa Anita. Anabaa's Creation won the race and paid 4.20 3.00 and 2.80. She paid 2.80 to show despite two major contenders finishing 2nd and 3rd. The public didn't 'pound' her to show. She was a horse who was first time in the country, so the public felt that if she didn't win, she might be nowhere.

So, the question is this. If the public felt she was a worthy even money shot, shouldn't she have been bet in the place and show pools like a typical even money shot should?

I think that the worst place and show bets on even money shots would be one dimensional speed horses.....if that horse gets dueled up and loses the duel, they might not hang on for minor honors either.

This horse in my example didn't figure to duel, she figured to stalk yet she wasn't bet hard to place and show.

It seems odd that the win bettors were confident enough to make her even money, yet the place and show bettors were NOT as confident that she would run at least 2nd or 3rd.

Are the win bettors wrong to make an 'all or nothing' horse even money, or are the place and show bettors wrong to not bet her in the place and show pools like a 'legit' even money shot? Someone is wrong, is it the win bettors who make these 'mystery' horses even money, or the minors bettors who don't bet with conviction just like the win bettors do?

[macguy]

When I first started betting, I often played the tote board looking for underlays in the place and show pools.

Generally (on a balanced tote) there should be about half as much money on the horse to place as there is to show, and about half as much money on the horse to show as there is on it to place.

If I saw a major discrepancy on the tote board in the place or show pools I would often bet if I liked the horse, and the place and show payouts would generally be quite a bit better than expected.

One thing I often found was I would never bet a rather short priced 2 horse entry to place, because often times if the entry would finish in two spots in the top three the show payout was almost always better (sometimes much better) than betting on the entry to place.

I never got rich, of course, but it was always kind of nice to get a price that was better than it should have been.

[fmolf]

i would recomend rerading dr z's book about his method and the testing of it at live racetracks...it is just what you are looking for

[kenwoodallpromos]

You are talking "All or nothing" finish position, but bettors are thinking "All or nothing" in the pools and betting. Dive in to those tote holes!!

[BlueShoe]

Often runners bet like this have received heavy non public betting action;when betting stables and other insiders are getting down on their horse,they rarely wager in the other pools,they bet it to win.These out of line pool ratio animals are considered to be very live,and often win.As for the place and show pools,at almost every track today these pools are filled by last minute bettors looking for such things.Often the pools reverse and become overfilled,thus becoming bad bets,not bargain ones.

[formula_2002]

what race was that?
I've been down loading the pool totals and may have a comment on the race.

you may want to see note 30 in,
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=661720#post661720