Quality Road's Figure Upgraded

[classhandicapper]

Quality Road's Beyer Figure upgraded
By Andrew Beyer
Quality Road's winning Beyer Speed Figure in the Florida Derby has been substantially upgraded - from 103 to 111. The change was made as part of an overall revision of the 1 1/8-mile races at Gulfstream Park.

"The figure for the Florida Derby looked low," Andew Beyer said, "and on the previous day, the Bonnie Miss Stakes also [at 1 1/8 miles] came up about 10 points slower than we would have expected. As we reviewed other races, we concluded there had been a change in the historic relationship between times at 1 1/8 miles and other distances at Gulfstream. We don't know why, but we did know that many of the 1 1/8-mile figures had to be increased."

Quality Road's 111, coming after the 113 he had earned in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, certifies his status as one of the top candidates for the Kentucky Derby. The last six runnings of the Derby have been won with figures of 111 or less. Dunkirk, second-place finisher in the Florida Derby, earned a figure of 108, which would make him a viable contender, too.

[cj]

I usually support Beyer, but not always, and this is definitely not one of those times. There was one route run on the day. The only other distances with which there are relationships are one turn races. I think using those to help create the two turn variant is a bad practice, particularly on a windy day.

I think he is too high on this one, though initially I thought he was too slow. I'm in the middle of his two figures.

[cj]

The pace of the Bonnie Miss was pretty fast. I think his upgrading that race is a mistake. Does this mean One Caroline ran a 112 winning the Rampart? Albertus Maximus a 111 winning the Donn? Dunkirk a 106 breaking his maiden?

[classhandicapper]

I felt that something was amiss with the 103 he assigned to the FD. It looked a little too slow to me. But to be honest, I haven't spent a lot of time handicapping or playing GP. So I don't have much of an opinion on any of the other significant races yet.

The DRF should probably publish a list of all the races that were changed with the new figures.

I think you have a unique advantage making speed figures because you have accurate pace figures to work with and understand the relationship between pace and final time very well. Most other figure makers misinterpret many of these fluky looking final times to mean the track changes speeds or other issues were at work. As we've discussed, that causes all sorts of other problems. (that's why I buy yours) ;)

[CBedo]

(that's why I buy yours) ;)
I wish they were available for me to buy!

[DrugS]

I think his upgrading that race is a mistake. Does this mean One Caroline ran a 112 winning the Rampart? Albertus Maximus a 111 winning the Donn? Dunkirk a 106 breaking his maiden?

I doubt it.

Saratoga Sinner a 106 and Kentucky Bear a 105 as well.

[Tom]

Class, did he go back and redo all the figs this year?
I wonder if Winner's Books will be revised or I have to do it manually?

[Fingal]

Revised figures ?

Kinda like Dosage changes. When the final figure doesn't fit, revise the criteria.:bang:

[classhandicapper]

Class, did he go back and redo all the figs this year?
I wonder if Winner's Books will be revised or I have to do it manually?

I'm not sure. I'm trying to find out. I think the Winner's Book eventually gets updated also.

[OTM Al]

Given that there seems to be a bit of a trend so far of the horses that did well at GP this winter flopping in their next race elsewhere, this change is meaningless to me and likely wrong as cj states. Might as well add Albertus Maximus to the list now too. Unless I see some reversal of this, QR will be a bet against come May

[CincyHorseplayer]

If that's true,what's the estimable disparity??

5 points,10 points???

On another note I was thinking about I Want Revenge's big Beyer as I looked at the Aqueduct mud today.If he wins tomorrow both big fig horses in the Triple Crown chase can be viewed with suspicion.One by offtracks and another by spurious numbers.