Santa Anita Derby

[Watcher]

Santa Anita Park - April 4th, 2009 - Race 6
Santa Anita Derby - Grade: 1
Estimated Local Post Time: 2:36 PM
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old
Purse: $750,000
Distance: One And One Eighth Miles
Surface: All Weather Track

Post Horse Name Age Sex Weight Jockey Name
1 Chocolate Candy (KY) 3 Colt 122 Joel Rosario
2 Z Day (KY) 3 Colt 122 Aaron T. Gryder
3 Unbridled Roman (CA) 3 Colt 122 Tyler Baze
4 Pioneerof the Nile (KY) 3 Colt 122 Garrett K. Gomez
5 Mr. Hot Stuff (KY) 3 Colt 122 Corey S. Nakatani
6 Feisty Suances (CA) 3 Colt 122 Victor Espinoza
7 Take the Points (KY) 3 Colt 122 Christopher P. DeCarlo
8 Cape Truth (KY) 3 Colt 122 Michael C. Baze
9 Gallant Son (KY) 3 Colt 122 Rafael Bejarano
10 The Pamplemousse (KY) 3 Colt 122 Alex O. Solis

[OTM Al]

Looks like the racing office did some work as I had originally heard there were only 6 starters which would have been a travesty. Also good to see the top California horses FINALLY face each other. I'm not surprised if Pioneer gets his furry little head handed to him in this one.

[joanied]

Wtacher...thanks for posting the field...I had just copied it to paste in here...

This one's gonna be great...seems everyone is concentrating on the Wood...

Cananni & Baffert should be racings 'odd couple'...or 'Abbott & Costello'...I read that Baffert calls Cannani 'Kramer' (of Sienfeld fame)...I think that's hilarious:D ...what a treat it would be to see these two guys sparring on TV...a real comedy show:jump:

But, the SA Derby is serious...I love the grapefriut and Cannani, but my first choice has to be for the Pioneer...

1-Pioneerof The Nile (in another close one)
2-Pamplemousse (how about a dead heat!?!)
3-Mr. Hot Stuff

I beleive Take the Points will be a scratch, according to the race review.

Will Saturday ever get here:jump:

[joanied]

Pamplemousse...vet scratch this morning...tendon injury.

This sucks :( :mad: :(

[Watcher]

rdYMTC1BJwI

[tucker6]

Pioneer, I Want Revenge, and Quality Road have each looked impressive in the last week in victory. What a difference a year makes. At this point, I like QR more, but each has their strengths, and I wouldn't be surprised if any of them won.

[Tread]

HUGE run by Chocolate Candy there, he undoubtedly will earn the best Thorograph/Sheet figure for that race. Shame the jock felt he had to swing so wide in the turn and lose all that ground, but I guess there really was no other way thru.

[joanied]

I don't think Chocolate Candy could have passed Pioneer anyway...Gomez was riding like a crazy man...he knows how Pioneer likes company and starts pulling himslef up once he gets the lead...but, IMO...a very impressive win today...Baffert will have him tight as a drum come Derby Day...in fact, had the Pamplemousse run today, I don't think he could have beat Pioneer. Hope he can make the switch to dirt.

[OFFandRUNNING10]

why such a hard run by gomez going down the stretch? i would have thought that they would have took this race at a more take it or leave it type approach. not to say Pioneer is burned out now or anything but why not reserve as much energy as you could. not sure i agree with this approach...hope it doesnt come back to bite them down the road.

[rastajenk]

The Derby is four weeks out; that saving it for the next one stuff is for the birds. This one still had much to prove, and to prove it today has a bigger upside than saving anything for later. If he doesn't win the Derby, it will be because he gets beat by a better horse, not because he left nothing on the track today.

[WinterTriangle]

I don't think Chocolate Candy could have passed Pioneer anyway...Gomez was riding like a crazy man...he knows how Pioneer likes company and starts pulling himslef up once he gets the lead...but, IMO...a very impressive win today...Baffert will have him tight as a drum come Derby Day...in fact, had the Pamplemousse run today, I don't think he could have beat Pioneer. Hope he can make the switch to dirt.

I was going to ask opinions on this. If The Pamplemousse, Cape Truth and Z Day hadn't scratched, would PON still have won?

Chocolate Candy ran a great race, IMHO, after a 7 week layoff..

[Thomas Roulston]

But what will the Beyers look like when they come out?

Would you feel comfortable using Pioneerof The Nile in the Derby if he goes into it never having posted a triple-digit Beyer?

[OTM Al]

I am not using Pioneer, at least not right now. However, a triple digit Beyer on dirt is not the same as a triple digit on synth/turf. Notice the difference between the top horses on the two surfaces. Turf/synth is always lower. This is because BSF only depend on final times and the pace in these races is usually slower in the beginning, leading to longer final times. So I would say something around a 95 (and maybe a shade lower) on synth is equivalant to a 100 on dirt. Some would add as much as 10 points, which would be about my upper bound for the comparison.

[joanied]

I was going to ask opinions on this. If The Pamplemousse, Cape Truth and Z Day hadn't scratched, would PON still have won?

Chocolate Candy ran a great race, IMHO, after a 7 week layoff..

Hey WT...Chocolate Candy did run a great race...I didn't realize :blush: he'd been off for that long...which make me thing...Freisan Fire's palnned 7 weeks off before May 2nd won't hurt him at all:ThmbUp: ...cannot wait to see Old Fashioned next weekend...
IMHO...even with those 3 scratched...Pioneer would have won...but the Grapefruit woulda been righ there with him...again...IMO:)

[joanied]

why such a hard run by gomez going down the stretch? i would have thought that they would have took this race at a more take it or leave it type approach. not to say Pioneer is burned out now or anything but why not reserve as much energy as you could. not sure i agree with this approach...hope it doesnt come back to bite them down the road.

Baffert has said this many times...Pioneer will loaf on the lead...and Gomez was taking no chances of him trying to pull himself up...hence, IMO...that crazy-man ride we saw.
Did you see Pioneer in the paddock...he was on his toes...I doubt the SADerby took anything out of him...

[JustRalph]

That was a ballsy move by Gomez..............

That guy isn't the best for nothing........... giving those horses on the lead a 4f easy go of it........would have made it hard on his horse and I think he figured that out early............

He won the race when he made that move. :ThmbUp:

[joanied]

That was a ballsy move by Gomez..............

That guy isn't the best for nothing........... giving those horses on the lead a 4f easy go of it........would have made it hard on his horse and I think he figured that out early............

He won the race when he made that move. :ThmbUp:

I'm still smiling everytime I see Gomez riding like a crazy man...looks to me like Pioneer ain't an easy horse to ride...ya gotta be all over him or he'll just loaf...Gomez was brilliant:ThmbUp:

[Thomas Roulston]

Well Pioneerof The Nile won't get the chance to do any loafing in the Derby, where the early pace will be so much faster than what he faced in the San Felipe and the SA Derby that he'll be nowhere near the lead until the very late stages.

[joanied]

Well Pioneerof The Nile won't get the chance to do any loafing in the Derby, where the early pace will be so much faster than what he faced in the San Felipe and the SA Derby that he'll be nowhere near the lead until the very late stages.

Nope...he won't... like Baffert said...he'll have another 19 horses to target in on...the horse just wants something to run at, and he'll get it in the Derby...if he's on the lead deep stretch, you can bet Gomez will be riding the same way...he'll be all over Pioneer to keep him focused and running as hard as he can.
IMO, a faster pace like we'll see in the Derby can only benefit Pioneer.
:)

[senortout]

Well, hello, I have been on the Forum for awhile now but have never posted.

Felt I had to respond to this quite intelligent thread on the SA Derby with a few comments.

For one thing, I feel the SA Derby is important in its own right. Therefore, an all-out effort could be called for, even conceding the great importance of that 'first Sat. in May' race....That said, I don't think this was an all-in poker move by Pioneer of the Nile!

No one has mentioned the over-eagerness of the horse himself...I was surprised no one picked up on that and mentioned it....It did take a tremendous amount of horsemanship to get over that part of the race...watch it again...you'll see.

ps, I had joined the Forum some time back, but for some reason forgot about checking back, there really are some astute contributors on here, glad I came back alright!

senorout

[joanied]

Well, hello, I have been on the Forum for awhile now but have never posted.

Felt I had to respond to this quite intelligent thread on the SA Derby with a few comments.

For one thing, I feel the SA Derby is important in its own right. Therefore, an all-out effort could be called for, even conceding the great importance of that 'first Sat. in May' race....That said, I don't think this was an all-in poker move by Pioneer of the Nile!

No one has mentioned the over-eagerness of the horse himself...I was surprised no one picked up on that and mentioned it....It did take a tremendous amount of horsemanship to get over that part of the race...watch it again...you'll see.

ps, I had joined the Forum some time back, but for some reason forgot about checking back, there really are some astute contributors on here, glad I came back alright!

senorout

senorout...glad you thought to check back...

You're right...Pioneer was full of run on Saturday (IMO)...in the paddock he was dancin' on his toes...and Fiesty Suances was his horse to run at...Gomez had the finese to get that fine line between letting Pionner run and not letting him take the lead when it was clear that's what the colt wanted (and then once he has the lead, he'll loaf waiting for a horse)...as you said, great horsemanship...great rider:ThmbUp: .....not sure what an 'all in poker move' is...but if means he won and still has plenty left...I agree.
:)

[Relwob Owner]

senorout...glad you thought to check back...

You're right...Pioneer was full of run on Saturday (IMO)...in the paddock he was dancin' on his toes...and Fiesty Suances was his horse to run at...Gomez had the finese to get that fine line between letting Pionner run and not letting him take the lead when it was clear that's what the colt wanted (and then once he has the lead, he'll loaf waiting for a horse)...as you said, great horsemanship...great rider:ThmbUp: .....not sure what an 'all in poker move' is...but if means he won and still has plenty left...I agree.
:)

Couldnt agree more....plus, it seems like with POTN, you have to make that "all out" move with him in every race because he tends to dawdle a bit---cant wait to see how he does on regular dirt....I think you may be able to get 7-8 to 1 on him if everyoen who is scheduled to start does go.

[joanied]

Couldnt agree more....plus, it seems like with POTN, you have to make that "all out" move with him in every race because he tends to dawdle a bit---cant wait to see how he does on regular dirt....I think you may be able to get 7-8 to 1 on him if everyoen who is scheduled to start does go.

Baffert is shipping him to Churchill on April 17th...that makes me feel much better...Pioneer will have ample time to get used to having the real stuff under his feet...and we should know before the Derby, wether or not he likes it.
Personally, I think going from the fake stuff to real dirt is an easier transition for a horse...but, I may be wrong about that:)