Keeneland Attitudes

[Tread]

Just trying to get a feel for if the majority of people actually are down about Keeneland, or if it is just a few loud voices making a lot of noise, but underneath all of that, people still enjoy playing it.

[Tom]

I play poly - WO, Hol, SA, TP, but do not play KEE. It is not the poly that I don't like - it is KEE, dirt poly, whatever. I will play the tuf, but that is all.

I question the timing at KEE and don't think anyone makes good variants or figures for KEE.

[Tread]

Good point Tom, not all polys are created equal. This poll is specifically about Keeneland, not poly racing in general

[OTM Al]

I'm with Tom on this one. Keeneland was squirrely even when it had a dirt surface. Further, no interest in 4 1/2 f baby races. Love maidens and especially firsters, but hate such short races and would prefer they didn't exist. Their turf course however is wonderful so those are the only races I would look at if I look at anything.

[miesque]

While I have not been as successful with the Keeneland Poly as I have with Arlington Park's Poly or Hollywood Park's Cushion Track (which are my two favorite as well as most profitable synthetic tracks), this season I am fully taking advantage of their Polycapping database and have incorporated that into my notes/data so I am hoping that will enhance my results.

[Tom]

In it's defense, KEE is a beautiful track to attend - strictly top shelf.
If you get the chance, go there!

[Grits]

The poly database will benefit you Miesque, as will last Fall's winners data on each race run.

Anyone can say what they will, but there isn't a racecourse in the country that tries to make more information available to their bettors, therefore, giving them a bit more benefit in their arsenal of handicapping than does Keeneland.

In truth, though, in spite of and in addition to all of this y'all. Here is a place, where Webster could have added another definition to the term, mingling. He could have elaborated, elevating the term to new heights

Study your pps, then, enter the pool with those looking for a sponsor--they'd be the scantily clad, the overexposed, those who cannot read a DRF, but look good clueless anyway. They smile a lot, and drink a lotta beer, particularly when they've found somebody else to buy.

After you've spent your first hour looking at every thing of beauty on the property, get yourself a drink, eat a little something. Get back down to work and plan your next few wagers. Search for those overlays, they're there, buried. Just like those drunks are gonna be!

. . . . They're busy, still loosening up. Chattin', networkin', talkin' on their cellphones. Most bettin' win, place, and show. :lol: And that's ok, money's money.

Enter the pool again. The dude with a beer in each hand earlier? He's moved on to pricey Woodford Reserve now, its steeper than Makers Mark. He hit a nice exacta in the 3rd. His longshot nosed out the chalk at 38/1. It won't luck either, he's a genius, just ask everybody around him who heard him screamin' and braggin'.

Its Race Four, he thinks he's Steve Crist. He don't know who the hell Crist is, he just knows he heard two guys in the teller line talking about him. He's waited to the last minute, prayin' he don't get shut out. He's gonna bet the Pick Six, just like that guy Crist. Crist ain't got nothin' on him!!

IF, if he don't drop dead when the mutuel clerk tells him the price of that damn ticket!

And y'all think money can't be made at Keeneland???

Don't sell yourselves short! With conditions like this, you ain't gotta worry about the race's or the horse's condition! LOL

Y'all know you can make money!;)

[dartman51]

I personally LOVE Keeneland. Not only do I love the atmosphere, but I also love the money to be made there. It's the ONLY track in the northern hemisphere, that I have made money at consistently for the last 6 years. I'm sure that's due in part to the short meets. JMHO. ;)

[kid4rilla]

KEENELAND - i'm so ready. Turnstiles spinning like industrial fans. Serial bets can pay the house for a year. So many fillies you'll break your neck before the 2nd race (human variety).

See you there!

[DanG]

there isn't a racecourse in the country that tries to make more information available to their bettors

In truth, though, in spite of and in addition to all of this y'all. Here is a place, where Webster could have added another definition to the term, mingling. He could have elaborated, elevating the term to new heights

Study your pps, then, enter the pool with those looking for a sponsor--they'd be the scantily clad, the overexposed, those who cannot read a DRF, but look good clueless anyway. They smile a lot, and drink a lotta beer, particularly when they've found somebody else to buy.

Classic post Grit's; and so true! :ThmbUp:

[JustRalph]

put tom's posts together and you have mine


great place to hang out.........and watch the races.

terrible at the windows............

but you can play other tracks in the Simul

[RiddellJ]

The two Keeneland meets are the highlight of the racing year as far as I am concerned. Great racing and great wagering opportunities abound.

For all that don't know me, I previously provided Clocker Reports for the KEE meets for Premier Turf Club and will do so for this meet on behalf of Keeneland. If you like to get a free copy of my Horses To Watch list just email me at paddockreport@gmail.com. We will be providing real-time paddock updates this meet from Twitter at

https://twitter.com/paddockreport.

Good luck at the windows to all my PA friends.

Joe Riddell

[Valuist]

While I have not been as successful with the Keeneland Poly as I have with Arlington Park's Poly or Hollywood Park's Cushion Track (which are my two favorite as well as most profitable synthetic tracks), this season I am fully taking advantage of their Polycapping database and have incorporated that into my notes/data so I am hoping that will enhance my results.

You might be the first person I've seen who has done best on Arlington's poly. I have never seen more head scratching results than what masquerades for horse racing there.

[horses721]

Unlike California, which I don't mind playing ploy races but don't play much because of so many short fields, Keeneland is a short meet with horses coming in from so many places that don't run Poly so how can you get a true feel for how they will run on the fake dirt. California tracks are all poly, although slightly different in some ways, so you can get a much better feel for how horses run on synthetics and feel more comfortable in your handicapping and thus I might wager more. Woodbine and Arlington are similar to California because their meets are so long but I won't bet on them for the first 6-8 weeks till I get a feel for how the horses are working out and running on the poly.
I personally feel that Keeneland, which runs only a few short meets can't expect handicappers to feel comfortable wagering on their races and should expect a decline in handle because of this. Most of the horses racing at Keeneland ship in from running on dirt tracks mostly in Florida and New York so I don't have any level of comfort in playing their races so I just play the turf races. I feel that unless a racing circuit can run Poly races for a significant period of time like California does, it will only hurt the handle because I'm sure I'm not the only person frustrated by trying to figure out who likes to run on carpet fibers and who likes to run on the dirt.

[Valuist]

I don't know if I'd say Keeneland's horse population isn't familiar with Poly. In the fall, the vast majority of horses are coming from either Turfway or Arlington. In the spring, your GP, FG and OP shippers have been running on real dirt recently but many of those have Poly experience.

[BlueShoe]

Of all the meets at the nations major tracks around the calendar year,have to rate Keenelands,both spring and fall,as the ones that I like least of all.Runners coming from half a dozen tracks or more,fields filled with comebackers,fuzzy form,strange class drops,and other confusing factors make this a place that is not for this player that puts a high priority on sharp current local form.By the time local form is established the meeting is over.Runners that win early in the meet and come back quickly and repeat are not common,and three wins are unheard of.Do find the turf course more playable,and most of my plays will be on the grass during the short meeting.

[fmolf]

unfortunately poly seems to be here to stay at least for awhile.i am still trying to get used to it ,having grown up around the nyra circuit.....i do not like it an will play mostly pick 3's because i very rarely have a strong opinion about any poly race...an it seems to me strange unexplained results are the norm......they are not even sure that it really reduces catastrophic injuries either...many many trainers an owners do not like it an will not run their horses on it...we can all thank california for this without their decree forcing all tracks in the state to have it i think the other tracks would not have it either.....turfway ...arlington...etc..etc.. i hope ny never goes to polytrack now california is wondering why their fields are so small statewide...could it be the poly?

[Bobzilla]

Some of you have probably read Steven Crist's latest piece in the DRF. In case you haven't I'll provide the link below. ...oops... just noticed you'll have to enter a username and password, sorry about that but maybe a few of you have an account with DRF. I believe the article was in yesterday's printed Form.


http://drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=102667


For many of us with reservations it's not the perceived complexities associated with the handicapping of these events. In fact I personally don't mind having a few of these tracks around, for these 3rd surface types play to my contrarian approach to the game quite nicely. I'm always in search of a price and feel a rush when the results of a race leave the majority scratching their heads, even when I'm one of the shocked and confused. I'm mainly interested in seeing these surfaces remain a 3rd surface, and not the eventual norm for all of our main tracks and our most historically important races. I'm interested in the preservation of our conventional dirt surfaces as they're the true medium by which we've gauged great perfromances over the last few centuries.

I think what I love most about racing as we've known it here in the Americas is the clear distinction between dirt racing and grass racing. They're really two different games, dirt and grass, each with their own unique dynamics and ways of distributing energy. In my opinion it would be quite boring to conduct all our racing with the same dynamics between grass and synthetic grass, the latter being essentially what synthetic surfaces are. A card with both grass and dirt racing represents a complete racing experience at the track. The differences between grass and dirt allow for MORE variables to consider and to attempt to master, not less. The elusiveness of understanding all of the variables is what continues to draw many of us to this game. It's fun because it's challenging and I believe that's more likely to continue with a distinction between dirt and grass, not grass and synthetic grass, the latter simply being a way to appease the international racing world.

[BigJake]

Did anyone see Keeneland's crowd on Saturday? Whether you like it or not it is the best track in America, or maybe I should say it is the only track in America wear day in and day out there is standing room only. Del Mar may come close, but I haven't made it out there yet. I've been pretty lucky there the first few days from home. I am going up next Friday. I hope my luck holds out. Its always better to cash vouchers IMHO.

[Lefty]

Kee poly, AP poly, ok for me. Ther rest of synthetics; no thanks.

[maxwell]

I don't know if it's the camera angles but Keeneland looks like a cow pasture to me? I don't get good vibes from that track ... ok, I just don't like the joint! :D

[the4horse]

No turf maidens. Why is that?

[ManeMediaMogul]

I don't know if it's the camera angles but Keeneland looks like a cow pasture to me? I don't get good vibes from that track ... ok, I just don't like the joint! :D

Your cows must live in a heavenly place.:lol:

[ManeMediaMogul]

No turf maidens. Why is that?

With a short meeet, the racing department likes to give turf horses ample opportunities to compete. There are two rail settings, but with three, sometimes four turf events daily, the course can get a tad chewed up. If you added 8 maiden races (4 short - 4 long) to the condition book there would be little grass left by the end of the meeting.

The other issue is stalls. By eliminating turf maiden races, the "strictly turf" maidens stay in Florida or move to New York, freeing up desperately needed stall space for older winners and two-year-olds.

[dutzman]

I love Keeneland, but hated the Poly when they first put it in. Now, you can almost predict how the track might play with how the weather is. Maybe its because of this meet being a lot more profitable than in the past, but I have grown to love the Poly at Keeneland! Although I wasn't quite sure why there were no turf maidens in the past, I can understand now. The turf maidens and poly maiden races would just hurt each other.

[BIG49010]

Tough meet this year, I have never seen anything like it. I don't know what the winning favorites are, but must me in the 20% area. I have never seen 50+ mutuals like this year.

[Tread]

Tough meet this year, I have never seen anything like it. I don't know what the winning favorites are, but must me in the 20% area. I have never seen 50+ mutuals like this year.

Uhhhh.....

5 winners out of 10 were favorites today
4 out of 9 yesterday

Overall this meet there have been 5 turf favorites and 27 poly favorites out of 95 total races. More like 33% than 20%. No wonder poly gets a bad rap, people are walking around with incorrect assumptions in their heads.

[BIG49010]

Surprised to hear those statistics, I guess maybe the problem is the 2nd and 3rd choices are not hitting, but enough said a tough meet for me. Carry on.

[pandy]

I don't make too many bets at Keeneland, although it looks like a great track to visit, but I generally don't mind betting synthetic surfaces, especially Hollywood, Woodbine. I agree with some of the others, Keeneland has always been a weird meet. As soon as you get a feel for it, it's over.

[fmolf]

have you been to saratoga yet....i'll take the quaint oval in the mountains any day where horses run on a natural surface ...whats next synthetic beaches!......

[BillW]

Surprised to hear those statistics, I guess maybe the problem is the 2nd and 3rd choices are not hitting, but enough said a tough meet for me. Carry on.

Here's what I have. I think it's complete - if not it's 99% (I'm on the road and operating off an "unofficial" database on my laptop - I may have missed downloading a few) I Just checked - I'm missing the 12th.


104 Total races processed
Track Data Report
# avg Fav. W-W. Ave. Ave. Win % by Odds Range
Type Races Field Wins Wins Odds Purse <2:1 2-5 5-10 10-20 >20:1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All 104 8.71 30% 25% 7.92 $ 70606 15% 40% 17% 19% 8%
Fast Track 98 8.77 30% 27% 7.92 $ 66051 14% 42% 17% 19% 7%
Off Track 6 7.83 33% 0% 7.85 $145000 33% 17% 17% 17% 17%
Synthetic-Fast 86 8.81 31% 29% 7.79 $ 66163 15% 40% 19% 20% 7%
Turf-Fast 12 8.42 17% 8% 8.88 $ 65250 8% 58% 8% 17% 8%
Turf-Off 6 7.83 33% 0% 7.85 $145000 33% 17% 17% 17% 17%
Synthetic Routes 34 8.53 38% 24% 6.26 $ 88912 12% 53% 12% 21% 3%
Synthetic Sprints 52 9.00 27% 33% 8.78 $ 51288 17% 31% 23% 19% 10%
Turf Routes 16 7.81 25% 6% 9.06 $ 90812 19% 44% 6% 19% 12%
Turf Sprints 2 11.50 0% 0% 4.35 $100000 0% 50% 50% 0% 0%
Males 57 8.67 25% 26% 6.94 $ 74544 18% 37% 16% 26% 4%
Females 47 8.77 36% 23% 9.11 $ 65830 13% 45% 19% 11% 13%
2 YO 6 7.50 83% 67% 2.55 $ 50000 67% 17% 17% 0% 0%
3 YO 34 9.35 26% 21% 10.47 $ 95794 12% 32% 12% 29% 15%
3 YO & up 12 10.00 17% 17% 12.99 $ 53333 17% 17% 33% 17% 17%
4 YO & up 52 8.13 29% 25% 5.70 $ 60500 12% 54% 17% 15% 2%
Gr. Stk 12 8.25 17% 8% 12.18 $262500 17% 17% 25% 25% 17%
non-Gr Stk 2 10.00 0% 0% 9.75 $100000 0% 50% 0% 50% 0%
Alw 31 8.68 35% 13% 5.85 $ 56548 16% 48% 16% 13% 6%
Opt. Clm 4 8.00 25% 25% 6.50 $ 64500 0% 50% 25% 25% 0%
St Alw 2 6.00 0% 0% 3.20 $ 20000 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Claiming 22 8.14 27% 36% 5.93 $ 26818 9% 55% 18% 18% 0%
MSW 24 9.38 42% 42% 7.33 $ 50000 25% 33% 12% 21% 8%
MdnClm 7 10.00 14% 29% 19.67 $ 21714 14% 0% 29% 29% 29%

[BIG49010]

So if I look at your table, a normal 10-1 shot has 9% chance of winning, your saying they are winning quite a bit more?


Could you post another meet, say Gulfsteam, for comparison?

[Maxspa]

All,
The heading W-W has to stand for William Wiggins Wins! Rumor has it, he has lots of winners, but forgets to bet some of them!
Does anyone remember seeing Bill at the betting window????? If he continues to be seen around Keenland, He might make the Indian Charlie- current Newsletter at www.indiancharlie .com/ and those guys will roast him good!
Maxspa

[BillW]

I Just checked - I'm missing the 12th.


Upon further review, the 12th was Easter and KEE was dark. :)

[BillW]

So if I look at your table, a normal 10-1 shot has 9% chance of winning, your saying they are winning quite a bit more?


Could you post another meet, say Gulfsteam, for comparison?

Keeneland is a nice place for longshots. 20 races out of 104 were won by horses between 10-1 and 20-1. I'm sure GP is much less.

[BillW]

for GP since 1/1/09

324 Total races processed
Track Data Report
# avg Fav. W-W. Ave. Ave. Win % by Odds Range
Type Races Field Wins Wins Odds Purse <2:1 2-5 5-10 10-20 >20:1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All 324 8.44 34% 19% 5.27 $ 34460 29% 39% 21% 8% 3%

[NJ Stinks]

It looks like Keeneland Attitudes Poll was accurate here:

__________________________________________________ _

Keeneland Handle Slips, Attendance Strong

Updated: Friday, April 24, 2009 9:45 PM
Posted: Friday, April 24, 2009 9:19 PM

On-track business at Keeneland was good this spring, but the all-sources handle suffered declines along with most other tracks around the country. The Lexington, Ky., track reported a decline in the all-sources handle of around 19.3%, falling to more than $117 million for the 15-day meet from around $145 million during last spring’s 16-day meet. The exact handle totals have not been confirmed, yet.

The on-track handle fared a bit better, falling 9.8% to $19,243,914 compared to $21,329,702 for the 2008 spring meet. Average daily handle dropped a mere 3.8% to $1,282,928 from $1,333,106.

link: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/50393/keeneland-handle-slips-attendance-strong?id=50393&source=rss
__________________________________________________ _

[Bobzilla]

Though I didn't agree with part of the premise behind the poll, which suggested those betting less were doing so because they wanted to see favorites ITM with more frequency, it's been an interesting poll nonetheless. I could have chosen either the 2nd or 3rd poll choice as I bet less Keeneland races than before but certainly not significantly less. I would have gone with a choice between 2 and 3 if one had been available.

This poll had a good number of participants, I believe 155. Now that the Keeneland spring 09 meet is behind us I'm interested to see how some might interpret the results of this poll. If you match options 1 and 2 against options 3 and 4 it looks like 54% to 46%. I'd guess proponents of Keeneland's main track races on Polytrack might see encouragement that the scale was tilted in a positive direction while detractors might argue that with a 46% representation of the sample betting from significantly less to never represents a serious decline in business.

Has anyone seen the numbers for the recently concluded GP, SA and OP meets? I haven't. I'm just wondering if they experienced declines in handle that were in line with those of Keeneland. If so then I would guess Keeneland's decline can in large part be attributed to the current state of the economy. If not then perhaps Polyphobia might be behind much of the decline. The other thing I was wondering about was what effect on overall handle does a higher percentage of uncashed tickets have? Seems like there was an inordinate number of longshots winning. Could that effect handle if less players are cashing tickets to throw back into the pools? Isn't that an axiom in the parimutual business world? Anyway, interesting poll and it would be more interesting to see how some read the results.

[NJ Stinks]

Handle was down 12% at SA.

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/national-news/2009/April/20/Handle-down-attendance-up-for-Santa-Anita-meet.aspx

Handle was up 3.6% at GP.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=Gulfstream+Park+total+handle+2009&btnG=Search

Handle was up 5.1% at Oaklawn.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/50204/oaklawn-reports-healthy-meet-numbers

I don't think there is any doubt that AWS is behind the declines at Keeneland and SA. Why would a horseplayer not want to play Keeneland where the best jockeys and trainers are gathered for a short meet with terrific purses?

It's no fun not playing Keeneland but there's only one way to get their undivided attention.

[JustRalph]

It's no fun not playing Keeneland but there's only one way to get their undivided attention.

exactly! :ThmbUp:

[WinterTriangle]

In truth, though, in spite of and in addition to all of this y'all. Here is a place, where Webster could have added another definition to the term, mingling. He could have elaborated, elevating the term to new heights

Study your pps, then, enter the pool with those looking for a sponsor--they'd be the scantily clad, the overexposed, those who cannot read a DRF, but look good clueless anyway. They smile a lot, and drink a lotta beer, particularly when they've found somebody else to buy.

After you've spent your first hour looking at every thing of beauty on the property, get yourself a drink, eat a little something. Get back down to work and plan your next few wagers. Search for those overlays, they're there, buried. Just like those drunks are gonna be!

. . . . They're busy, still loosening up. Chattin', networkin', talkin' on their cellphones. Most bettin' win, place, and show. :lol: And that's ok, money's money.

Enter the pool again. The dude with a beer in each hand earlier? He's moved on to pricey Woodford Reserve now, its steeper than Makers Mark. He hit a nice exacta in the 3rd. His longshot nosed out the chalk at 38/1. It won't luck either, he's a genius, just ask everybody around him who heard him screamin' and braggin'.

Its Race Four, he thinks he's Steve Crist. He don't know who the hell Crist is, he just knows he heard two guys in the teller line talking about him. He's waited to the last minute, prayin' he don't get shut out. He's gonna bet the Pick Six, just like that guy Crist. Crist ain't got nothin' on him!!

IF, if he don't drop dead when the mutuel clerk tells him the price of that damn ticket!

And y'all think money can't be made at Keeneland???

Don't sell yourselves short! With conditions like this, you ain't gotta worry about the race's or the horse's condition! LOL

Y'all know you can make money!;)

You should be writing for a The New Yorker type magazine, Grits. This is like reading a Talk of the Town piece there. Very entertaining, and spot on!

[tanner12oz]

i dont follow the races daily but the few days ive watched keeneland NOBODY was coming off the pace...no closers....all horses that should have folded like a cheap suit but nobody could catch them in the stretch. ive actually done okay at keeneland playing speed horses