Qualifying Races

[mostpost]

I play Maywood Park near Chicago. I'm not a frequent player, but try to get out there once or twice a month (maybe a little more often during the summer). I won't go into my methods, but there is one thing I don't know how to handle. That is the matter of qualifying races. Does anyone have any ideas or opinions?
Do you ignore them? Do you treat them the same as a regular race? How much of a horse's ability do you think a driver will expend in a Qualifier? After a long layoff are two or three qualifiers as testing as one regular race. Given similar condition a 2:00 qualifier translates to what in a parimutual race?
I would appreciate any comments as I have tried to figure these things out without success.

[Overcall]

Here's a few things i look for.... this is the time of the year the best horses
hit the track.

1) With respect to qualifiers, you should know if this
horse is a Hot shot 2 or 3 year old (stake races etc) from last year.

2) The higher you go up the class ladder, a real start is needed as a tightener.

3) Did the qualifier brush a fast last quarter?

4) Is the qualifiers final time within 4 second of currrent race entrants?

5) Are the odds kinda low? Possibly insider knowledge.

[mostpost]

Thanks

[Sea Biscuit]

I play Maywood Park near Chicago. I'm not a frequent player, but try to get out there once or twice a month (maybe a little more often during the summer). I won't go into my methods, but there is one thing I don't know how to handle. That is the matter of qualifying races. Does anyone have any ideas or opinions?
Do you ignore them? Do you treat them the same as a regular race? How much of a horse's ability do you think a driver will expend in a Qualifier? After a long layoff are two or three qualifiers as testing as one regular race. Given similar condition a 2:00 qualifier translates to what in a parimutual race?
I would appreciate any comments as I have tried to figure these things out without success.

My favourite angle for the qualifying races is when a horse qualifies with a much classier animal than himself and comes 2nd or a good third in the qualifier with the classier horse winning the qua.

A prime example of this angle could be found in the 6th race at Woodbine on March 27 where Boy Meets Grill qualifies after a month and a half layoff with the classier Misterizi and comes 2nd in 158.1 and wins his first start after the layoff in 155.2. Of course here the tote board was talking too as he paid only $7.20. Yak Yak

Sea Biscuit.

[Mazerati]

I play Maywood Park near Chicago. I'm not a frequent player, but try to get out there once or twice a month (maybe a little more often during the summer). I won't go into my methods, but there is one thing I don't know how to handle. That is the matter of qualifying races. Does anyone have any ideas or opinions?
Do you ignore them? Do you treat them the same as a regular race? How much of a horse's ability do you think a driver will expend in a Qualifier? After a long layoff are two or three qualifiers as testing as one regular race. Given similar condition a 2:00 qualifier translates to what in a parimutual race?
I would appreciate any comments as I have tried to figure these things out without success.

one thing
watch the board after a poor qualifier (especially early money)
some people tend to talk way too much in the backstretch

[camfella]

The questions, 2 q's are better than 1, how long since last race, 1 month is a possible, 6 months is a doubtful,unless it's a horse who races 10 times a year.

In other words it depends, certain trainers will always have them ready to go, some will follow the 3rd back method. I dont think there are any set answers,some horses race well freshened, some are cranky for a few starts, and yes better q"s will usually race better, but have seen the other way around too.

What I do is judge by the trainer and the horse and the race he is racing in,lower class? or the same. Summary answer is to decide case by case,play some ,but never all- Camfella

[harness2008]

Tough one but heres my opinion.

Watch the board, any horse going off at less than the morning line posted is being bet. Good angle for a firster or a horse with limited starts that hasn't raced well in competition.

Faster than normal brushes in the qualifying race related to the final time is usually a good sign.

Check out the times recorded by other horses coming out of the quali race. If its a firster who won the qualifier by a few lengths and the 2nd and 3rd horses came back and ran say in the 158 range, it may be assumed that the firster can run perhaps a sub 158 mile based on this. This takes a bit of extra work but well worth it in the long run.

Although not a hard and fast rule, I have observed that horses that get trounced in the qualifier, beaten many lengths and not in the top 3 or 4 are merely out for exercise. Unless taking a class drop I would be wary of backing these animals in their next start.

I think its more difficult to know if a firster is going to run first time out in thouroughbreds than harness. At least with harness you have a horse that has at least semi competed in a mile race. With thouroughbreds you have to base your opinion on 3, 4 and 5 furlong workouts with no competition.

[mostpost]

Thank you for all the comments. They were most helpful. I can see that no one factor determines whether or to what degree a Qualifying race should be used.
Let me explain what I do in handicappinga harness race; briefly and with limited detail. I use an eliminate and rate method. I look at the PPs and consider Position in the race after a quarter and three quarters and at the finish (First second third etc.), Driver, Trainer, Parked, Post Position, class (more acurately class changes), gain or loss for the final three quarters. I assign numbers to these factors. These are based on a number of things I have read or learned over the years, including Tom Ainslie's book on Standardbred Handicapping from many years ago and, surprisingly, "The Power of Early Speed", Steve Klein's book on Thorobred Handicapping. Then, I add the totals and eliminate horses with lower ratings. The number of horses I eliminate and the breakoff point varies from race to race. I then rate the surviving contenders.
I use the Trackmaster PP's, and a method similar to Tom Brohamer's Pace ratings. I take the first 3/4 time, the final 3/4 time and the time of the final quarter. Using these as modified by the track variant and converting to Feet per Second, I make a chart containing the following: Early Pace (3/4 mark)
Final Fraction (Self explanatory), Sustained Pace (the average of early pace plus final fraction), Average Pace (the average of Early Pace and Sustained Pace) and Last 3/4 (self explanatory). I have these five factor across the top of my chart and the horses numbers along the side. Then I look at the figures, which I have calculated (I use a spreadsheet) and rate the horses 1 through whatever.
Since I know that early speed is a big advantage at Maywood I concentrate for the win on horses who rank high in Early Pace with minimal drop off the later factors (final fraction and last 3/4.) If I'm betting Exactas, which I often do, I know that place horses have a smaller chance of ceing near the front early and so I concentrate on horses which have better late figures.
I don't expect to get rich, but I am able to got to the track with a reasonable expectation of avoiding disaster. And occasionally I've come home with some fair profits. Againn thanks for the input on Qualifiers.

[Sea Biscuit]

Best of luck Mostpost

Sea Biscuit