Longshot Players

[Randy Gunn]

Do you bet your selections regardless of how the favorite looks, or do you limit yourself to races with false/vulnerable faves?

Thanks,
Randy

[so.cal.fan]

I will only bet against a bad favorite, Randy.
I know many smart players will not agree. They will bet against a favorite who is being overbet.
I will not......I have to have a serious knock on the favorite.......then I know in my mind it is truly being overbet and if I like a horse to beat it..........down goes my bet.

[BIG HIT]

Hi randy i play the long horse regardless of favorite.If my horse has the quality i like in a horse as some horse look unbeatable on paper.Sure other's here have a better reply.But the main thing is value as everybody pick's more loser then winner's

[penguinfan]

I am sure someone here will correct the error in my thinking, but I will play a legitimate longshot reguardless of how good the favorite appears to be. Let's face it, you would only play the longshot of you thought he had a reasonable chance to beat the favorite. If I find a longshot, for whatever reason that has a chance to win the I hope the favorite apperars to be death and taxes to the betting public and they drive the price on my horse to the sky.

You were probably asking what if your longshot appeared to be second best to the favorite I think? In that case I would still play him to win since I am a longshot player and have had one too many favorites run down by some bomb.

Penguinfan

[so.cal.fan]

Penguinfan:
You make a good point.
I'm going to think about it.

[Doug]

Play the longshot anyway. If the favorite and 2nd favorite appear a little weak, bet more.

Doug

[plainolebill]

The situation that keeps killing me is where *two* horses have to run a sub-optimal race *and* mine has to improve to win. I keep playing it but I'm going to try to avoid races where trainers like West and Mullins are running the favorites, I'm talking about proven runners. Their horses 'never' seem to run less than their best, never bounce. Of course every once in awhile you can catch one of their horses at a good price. Never to old to learn, I guess.

[Early]

Forget about the morning line and the odds for a while. Actually I prefer to handicap before seeing the line. If I like a horse, I bet more the longer the odds are. If I like 2 horses and can't seperate them, I check the odds near post time and bet the longer one.

At least that was in the days when I was a win bettor and made a profit several seasons in a row. Now, the exotics are killing me.

[Kentucky Bred]

in my longshot plays. It's amazing. After looking at several computer generated type race prognosis sheets, it seems that often the 10-1 shot is not that far off the points of the can't-miss fav. I know that odds-on horses have huge win percentages, but all those other horse's odds are sky high and I think that is what real value is all about.

I don't play exotics much but I have noticed that when you do win the $20+ mutual, that odds-on fav runs second a whole bunch, especially when it runs to an opposite racing profile.

Kentucky Bred

[Fastracehorse]

I can pretty much tell if a horse is going to be a price or not.

And, I know if I have a money making horse.

I like p-3's because I can bet a longshot relatively cheaply and get a strong return - even if I hook him up with a favorite.

I have posted 32 longshots on DRF forum this year ( 6-1 ) or more with my top pick and hope to post many more by years end.

I often don't know who is riding my horse, and frankly, that doesn't hurt me - but a lesser known jock and trainer will help my price, that's for sure.

I like speed figures and trainer intent - turf and Maidens.

Great game.

fffastt

[andicap]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse@DRF
I can pretty much tell if a horse is going to be a price or not.

And, I know if I have a money making horse.

I like p-3's because I can bet a longshot relatively cheaply and get a strong return - even if I hook him up with a favorite.

I have posted 32 longshots on DRF forum this year ( 6-1 ) or more with my top pick and hope to post many more by years end.

I often don't know who is riding my horse, and frankly, that doesn't hurt me - but a lesser known jock and trainer will help my price, that's for sure.

I like speed figures and trainer intent - turf and Maidens.

Great game.

fffastt

Have you seen the longshot trainer intent stuff from Jerry "the guru" Stokes. (or Little Joe as he was known on the old BRIS BBS)?
He does the same thing -- has several angles designed to scope out trainer intent (hidden form if you will) for longshots.

[Fastracehorse]

My own research but it might be intersting for me to look at - I could always use another angle.

Thanx Andi,

ffastt

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by andicap
Have you seen the longshot trainer intent stuff from Jerry "the guru" Stokes. (or Little Joe as he was known on the old BRIS BBS)? He does the same thing -- has several angles designed to scope out trainer intent (hidden form if you will) for longshots.

Trainer Intent.....I am starting to think this is the way to go on the class B tracks. I once tracked some trainers at Mountaineer for about a month and scored some nice tickets using it. It took a bunch of time to analyze the stuff. I would be interested in the above.

[Fastracehorse]

Trainer intent is A-class material.

Or maybe U knew that.

fffastt

[freeneasy]

personally i dont give a damn in hell about the odds like Big Hit said were going to lose more bets then win. before i even look at the odds I make up my mind who the best horse in the raceis going to be . i try to let everything surface on its own natural rise. sometimes i come up with a good hohse and when isee good odds placed on it, that in itself doesnt mean i should think any less of it because it was not favored by the ML maker, oncontrair.
it is believed by some that every winner should have been the favorite. and for the most part that has its truths, iam not talkingabout a race won by default. and all things being as equal as they can be in a horserace then give me one good reason why a good odds hose shouldnt win like a favorite. the trick is finding that good odds horse that should be the betting favorite.
I look for the best horse in the race, if he comes up a favorite why bet a lesser looking longshot over him. if he comes up a longshot why bet a lesser looking favorite over him. and imo the reason we bet the lesser over the better is because we know that racing luck takes place all the time and the other reason is because sometimes the assessments me make that convince us as to the predictable outcome of a horserace is just not going to turn out the way it figures out to be.
and iam telling you right now that if we were right with every predicated assessment we were convinced of... well then wed never lose.:D how could we:D

[WINMANWIN]

FREENEASY was in the war room today, and a bunch of us were capping todays races on get away day at santa. The favorite in the race was #3 who was coming off a route race and returning from a long layoff. I was making a case for the # 8 horse who was 5 to 1 at the time.FREE mentioned a 1ster called SIPHON
HONEY with 18 mins to post.We all were discussing angles and etc. Finally, FREE posted why he liked this 1ster and actually gave a paragraph on the horses works and why he liked this steed.
I noticed the trainer was awful, But also noticed the sales price and his work pattern. My point is Free put me on this horse for sure, Instead of me overlooking, he pointed me towards him and the steed I liked ran 2nd. I cashed an nice exacta and quin bet thanks to him.I just felt bad, He took the time out to write is rationale about this 1ster, and he didn't get his action in, cause it was seconds to post....FREE again tks, and may they run your way, Like today.....WITH YOU CASHING !!!!

8th Race, Next Post 4:38 Off: 4:08
# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
7 Siphon Honey Espinoza V 124 44.80 19.40 9.80
8 Sophisticatedbluff Flores D R 124 4.20 3.20
9 Azure Spring Nakatani C S 117 6.40
Finish Time: 1:10

Scratched: None
$1 Exacta 7-8 Paid $93.80
$2 Quinella 7-8 Paid $79.40
$1 Trifecta 7-8-9 Paid $604.60
$1 Superfecta 7-8-9-3 Paid $3,076.70
$2 Daily Double (8-7) Paid $224.60
$1 Pick Three (9-7/8-7) 3 Correct Paid $156.50

[Suff]

Whats a Longshot? To me. Anything under 11-1 isn't a longshot.

Longshots Pay 25 bucks.

[plainolebill]

Originally posted by andicap
Have you seen the longshot trainer intent stuff from Jerry "the guru" Stokes. (or Little Joe as he was known on the old BRIS BBS)?
He does the same thing -- has several angles designed to scope out trainer intent (hidden form if you will) for longshots.

I looked at the website and tried to print out the first page so I wouldn't forget. Thing is it wouldn't print, I tried to do a screenprint, same thing. Must be invisible ink :eek:

[JustRalph]

post the link to the site

[plainolebill]

www.a1handicapping.com/

[GR1@HTR]

Here are my handicapping records (not wagering records) of manual paceline picking in the following races:

Potential longshot races (defined by HTR Vi of 10-25)

AP1 00153 0024 16% 1.12 33% 0004 $128
AP2 00153 0026 17% 1.02 29% 0005 $37
AP3 00153 0025 16% 1.10 32% 0009 $32
AP4 00152 0018 12% 1.02 21% 0007 $61

Races Tested: 153

*Longs 41%
*HTRLongs 18%
*CHALK 37%

Vi=10 to 25


Potential Chalk races (defined by HTR Vi of 38 to 65)
AP1 00110 0044 40% 0.91 61% 0000
AP2 00110 0024 22% 0.75 48% 0002 $20
AP3 00110 0015 14% 0.69 33% 0002 $30
AP4 00110 0010 09% 0.65 25% 0004 $38

Races Tested: 110

*Longs 19%
*HTRLongs 12%
*CHALK 67%
Vi=38 to 65


Note that I pick 62% (TOP 2), 85% (Top 4)winners in chalk races w/ a huge negative ROI and 61% (TOP 4) in longshot races w/ each of the top 4 showing a positive ROI. Now, where is the money?

[sq764]

I have read the Secrets of Handicapping book and follow some of the longshot trainer intent angles. I have hit some bombs with the FDK angle, particularly at smaller tracks with smaller pools.

[Fastracehorse]

>personally i dont give a damn in hell about the odds like Big Hit said were going to lose more bets then win.

I do give a damn about the odds. Because, I have a chance to make a good score if I find a money maker.

However, I rank the horses in order of how I like them, regardless of their odds - I do this because I'm a p-3 player.

An odds-on horse can be a valuable tool if he's much the best - but he's only valuable if you have a money maker to hook up with him.

Doubles offer good value too.

So I 'cap - then find out the M/L on my clunkers - and I already know what I'm going to do before the races start.

Another way of looking at p-3's is: Manufacturing win bets.

If you like a 20-1 in race 3 - but figure he has an average probability of winning - you could make a p-3 with him for less money than betting him to win - and a higher return.

P-3's are economically efficient - doubles too - but patience is an issue for alot of horse players.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Another angle I like about that Siphon firster is this: High profile jock on no-name trainer's firster.

That alone speaks of intent - and that horse was huge - nice exactey Winman!!

fffastt

BTW,

That 3 was a horrible favorite - hadn't run since July and had no early zip - finished 4th.

[Fastracehorse]

Could you explain your tables a little better.

I couldn't understand the data - the gist I got though.

Thanks,

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

What is the FDK angle??

Thanx,

fffastt

[andicap]

What is the FDK angle??

Thanx,

fffastt
---------------------------------------------------------
What are adjusted Beyers??


:D :D :D

It's one of a handful of such angles that Stokes and Jim LeHane of calibration handicapping use to scope out longshots. I can't vouch for whether they work or not, just reporting the facts. They also have the WIR, and a few others.
Stokes has more than Lehane because Stokes came up with them and let lehane use them in his book I believe.
Not meant to be used on their own, but as part of a comprehensive handicapping method.

[sq764]

Fastracehorse, the FDK angle goes something like this:

Horse must be >=5 lengths behind at the 2nd call, and must have no gain from the 1st to 2nd call. Then he must not lose more than 6 lengths from the 3rd call to finish, and finish 4th or worse.


The premise being that this horse was being made ready for this next race and is fitter than he looks on paper.

There are some other factors that go with this criteria in order to wager on this horse, but that is the angle.

[Fastracehorse]

So the FDK angle is a blueprint for a prep??

Do you know what FDK actually stands for??

Thanks again,

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

I ask questions, not necessarily because I don't understand, but to necesstiate accurate communication.

About adjd speed figs - IMO, they are better than the Beyer - much better - so U can see how I might want to keep them under wraps.

Afterall, how many advantages does a horse player have in the game??

fffastt

[maxwell]

Very few winning horses are true longshots. A longshot is a horse that doesn't have much going for it.

You have to root out the overlays using common sense handicapping factors.And you have to know the value of the factors you are using.

A rough example : 15 pts. = 5/1 ; 14 pts. = 10/1 ; 13 pts. = 20/1 and so on.

[sq764]

FDK = (I think) Form Darkening (Something)

[sq764]

Maxwell, wouldn't your comment depend on how exactly you denote a 'longshot'?

Isn't longshot an arbitrary term, which could be 10/1 for some, 30/1 for others, and horses with little or no chance for others?

[Fastracehorse]

I agree that a longshot doens't mean a bad horse.

I've seen 20-1's that were 2-1.

It's good to have insights that pick pricier stock.

Handicapping contenders is actually quite simple:

Who is most likely to run the best today.

The hard part is learning what works.

fffastt

[MANOWAR]

Has anyone read Secrets Of Handicapping eBook? I'm wondering if it's legit or not. Don't want to shell out $45 on a useless book. Too many scams out there.

[sq764]

That was the only handicapping book I have ever purchased.. I thought it was very informative. I think some of the ebook is geared towards teaching people how to handicap, but I liked the angle section.

[rmania]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse@DRF
...Handicapping contenders is actually quite simple:

Who is most likely to run the best today.

The hard part is learning what works..... Sorry fffastt, but I have to disagree somewhat with the first statement.

I think it would be better said as - Handicapping “potential” contenders is actually quite simple. It fits more with your second statement - Who is “most likely” to run the best today.

How often is it that your pre-race “contenders” don’t content at all? Probably more than you’re willing to admit. If this were not the case you would be rolling in dough.

My comments are not meant to criticize but to stress the fact that finding the actual contenders is often easier said than done. And, if one is consistently finding the actual contenders then there isn’t much required to make it work.

Just for the heck of it, you (or anyone for that matter) might try keeping track of your pre-race contenders (let’s say top 4) on a spreadsheet and after the race note how many of the 4 finished 4th or better.

Just a suggestion.;)

[MANOWAR]

sq764

Are there any chapters in the book geared towards the experienced handicapper?

If the book is geared more towards the novice handicapper than the book is probably a waste of money?

[sq764]

Manowar, email me we can discuss.. (sq764@aol.com)

[Fastracehorse]

<And, if one is consistently finding the actual contenders then there isn’t much required to make it work.

It's always hard work.

<How often is it that your pre-race “contenders” don’t content at all?

Depends how much I like them. If my contenders get beat it's often by a firster - I hate that.


<Just for the heck of it, you (or anyone for that matter) might try keeping track of your pre-race contenders (let’s say top 4) on a spreadsheet and after the race note how many of the 4 finished 4th or better.

Done.

fffastt

[so.cal.fan]

fast:
" Rmania - presumptive guy".

are you sure Rmaina is a guy?

;) ;) ;)

[Fastracehorse]

I guess you are of the better sex??

fffastt

[so.cal.fan]

Not exactly better, fast......
I don't know if rmania is male or female, I suspect the latter....takes one to know one I guess.
Just a friendly reminder to you guys not to be too tough on some of the posters......they may be ladies/Moms/Grandmas!
Not too many of us on this board....but there are a few.
But hey, on the other hand....if we can't take it....we need to get off the board....so what the hell, give it your best shot.
If we are wrong.......let us know........you better believe we will tell you what we REALLY think......as well. LOL
Have a good day, men. (and ladies).
;)

[Fastracehorse]

Great advice.

I'm not going to be mean to anybody.

Feel free to speak your mind - it won't offend me at least.

That was a funny post - I was being presumptive about somebody'd presumptions.

ROTFLMAO.

That was good.

fffastt

[railbird]

Be careful fffst so. cal. fan might be Dow!!!!!!!!!

[Fastracehorse]

I'm already paranoid enough with Foxy!

LOL - ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;)

fffastt