Evaluating the Graded Earnings Criteria for the Derby

[CBedo]

Is there a better way to do this than by graded earnings? With the "win and you're in" race from Europe, and a race in Dubai that had a significantly larger purse than most of the prep races here, I'm just wondering what's really "fair?"

[CBedo]

Just looked at the purses for the Dubai Derby--2 million. The Florida Derby actually lowered their purse this year from 1 million to 750 thousand. So the second place finisher in Dubai is in, but the second place finisher in the Florida maybe not? That doesn't make much sense to me.

[W2G]

It's not a perfect system but I doubt a perfect system exists. Graded earnings are at least a clean, objective criterion. And everyone knows the rules -- connections are compelled to map out a prep schedule with graded earnings in mind. Not to say that the system couldn't be tweaked a little, say by weighing graded earnings in accordance with their G1, G2, or G3 status. In that scenario a second in any of the major U.S. preps would basically guarantee a Derby berth.

I suppose every year there may be 1 or 2 who "should" be in the starting gate but aren't due to graded earnings. But that realization is mostly hindsight, and the most talented runners typically do make it. Last year Denis of Cork barely made it, and he certainly belonged. Dunkirk will represent an interesting case this year though. And what an imposing "new shooter" he could be on the TC trail if the Derby is not in the cards.

[JPinMaryland]

THey could weight the earnings based on whether they were won as a two year old or as a three year old. I think that would make more sense as you would think that they would want to enter horses who are running/winning in their sophmore year rather than some juvenile who won a race 6 months ago and is not the same horse.

[matthewsiv]

You could go by latest Beyer or Speed figure with the highest making the field.

[DJofSD]

First a question: do you know why they use graded race earnings to qualify nomines?

[OTM Al]

The use of graded earnings would make it sort of a qualifying system where only the best finishers in the best races get in. The problem is that purses do not align with the grades. If they really want to fix this, then I would do something like only counting the share of the 1st 100,000 for Gr 3s, 150,000 for Gr 2s and 250,000 for Gr 1s as those if I remember right are the minimum $ values for those races. Puts them all on equal footing and no longer will the Delta Jackpot count like a Gr 1.

[DJofSD]

The use of graded earnings was started in response to a claiming horse potentially getting in and running in the KY Derby. For the handful of minutes I tried to find the specifics on the internet, I could not find the details. I believe this was in the early 1990's.

[slewis]

Everyone should just take a deep breath here.


The system works fine. Horses like Dunkirk that might not get in are the RARE exception, not the rule..
I still say that he will get in this year... Look at the earnings list. Between those that are NOT going, those injured, and a few fillies, he'll get in despite the loss of a spot.

No changes needed.... If your horse performs and battles (and earns $$) in graded races, you get in...

[kenwoodallpromos]

You could go by latest Beyer or Speed figure with the highest making the field.
My problem with speed figures aside, I would not on principal like to see Derby entrants based on 1 handicapper's method.
I prefer earnings to count 70%, points for Gr. 1 WPS to count 30%.

[Relwob Owner]

Everyone should just take a deep breath here.


The system works fine. Horses like Dunkirk that might not get in are the RARE exception, not the rule..
I still say that he will get in this year... Look at the earnings list. Between those that are NOT going, those injured, and a few fillies, he'll get in despite the loss of a spot.

No changes needed.... If your horse performs and battles (and earns $$) in graded races, you get in...


I am with you....I like the way it is and still really dont like any win and you are in stuff and am pretty disappointed the overseas race counts....with so many other things that need fixing in racing, seems like we always have to try and change things that arent broken, like the triple crown qualifications....as Slewis said, Dunkirk is the exception and he has been slow to progress and part of the reason the Deby is so hard and so prestigious is that the animals are that far along so young....once you start changing things and adding caveats, it waters the whole thing down in my opinion---

[DrugS]

As much as I enjoyed seeing Pletcher throw a purse clutching metro-sexual hissy fit on national tv - I felt some disappointment that a solid horse who will take a lot of money might miss the Derby.

Still, Graded earning should be the criteria which determines entry into the race.

[matthewsiv]

My problem with speed figures aside, I would not on principal like to see Derby entrants based on 1 handicapper's method.
I prefer earnings to count 70%, points for Gr. 1 WPS to count 30%.

A horse who was a good 2 year old but did not carry on his ability at 3 would get in over a horse who has improved from 2 to 3 and has a real chance in the Derby.

[kenwoodallpromos]

A horse who was a good 2 year old but did not carry on his ability at 3 would get in over a horse who has improved from 2 to 3 and has a real chance in the Derby.
And like Giacomo, if they do get in based on 4 races back instead of the last 2, and wins based on runnning even quarters ALL his races, will get trashed, and not those who won his last Derby prep (last race win mentality).

I do not have a problem with win + you're in as a 3 yr old only in addition to points. But the win-the-big-preps-only menality and graded earnings also eliminates the big improvers like Funny Cide, who is still involved with a track!

[FenceBored]

The use of graded earnings was started in response to a claiming horse potentially getting in and running in the KY Derby. For the handful of minutes I tried to find the specifics on the internet, I could not find the details. I believe this was in the early 1990's.

Looking at Derby programs, and how they talk about the nomination process, 1991 seems to have been the first year to use the Graded earnings ranking.

[DJofSD]

Looking at Derby programs, and how they talk about the nomination process, 1991 seems to have been the first year to use the Graded earnings ranking.
Great, that'll help narrow down my search. It's kind of bugging me a bit, so, just to satisfy myself I am going to find out the specifics. I just hope I don't end up with egg on my face because it was associated with the BC and not the KY Derby.

One part of the hoopla during the weeks prior to the race, I recall the press caught the trainer "walking" the horse on a long lead while he was driving his truck.