Cholly
03-29-2009, 10:30 AM
Old habits die hard. It’s been 9 months since NYRA instituted rolling doubles across the card, but pools for the opening and closing sequences still dwarf all the others. Yesterday was typical in that the Early and Late Double pools were $185K & $166K, and the median of the others was $43K. Who plays the traditional doubles but won’t play the others?
I rarely play vertically, but I watch these pools to get an early indication of odds for the following race. As soon as there’s $5K in the pool, I use the double will-pays of the lowest odds horse to calculate prices for the following race. The early doubles players are very representative of the public, and most of the time this proves to be an accurate predictor of final odds at least 40 minutes before post.
Occasionally you catch a curve, like Saturday’s AQ R8. Missy Loves Mambo was 8-1 ML, 7-1 using the double pool indicator, and not touted by either the DRF guys or Serling/Donavan. But she opened at 2-1 and never got higher than her final odds of 7-2. She’s owned by West Point Thorobreds, and I’ve heard it said they’re not shy about pounding their horses at the window. If that’s what happened, I guess they’re old-school win-bettors because this horse remained a relatively much higher pay in the exacta pools
I rarely play vertically, but I watch these pools to get an early indication of odds for the following race. As soon as there’s $5K in the pool, I use the double will-pays of the lowest odds horse to calculate prices for the following race. The early doubles players are very representative of the public, and most of the time this proves to be an accurate predictor of final odds at least 40 minutes before post.
Occasionally you catch a curve, like Saturday’s AQ R8. Missy Loves Mambo was 8-1 ML, 7-1 using the double pool indicator, and not touted by either the DRF guys or Serling/Donavan. But she opened at 2-1 and never got higher than her final odds of 7-2. She’s owned by West Point Thorobreds, and I’ve heard it said they’re not shy about pounding their horses at the window. If that’s what happened, I guess they’re old-school win-bettors because this horse remained a relatively much higher pay in the exacta pools