Big Drama - Swale Stakes

[Watcher]

Big Drama sets track record in holding off This Ones For Phil in Swale Stakes...

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[joanied]

The Swale was a great race.....Big Drama was the best and after lugging out from a left handed whip....why on earth did his rider (geeze, can't:blush: remember who) whack him left handed again...dumb move:bang: His # woulda stayed up if not for that second time.

Wonder what everyone is saying now about This One's for Phil...seems he is living up to his big numbers.

[MONEY]

I got knocked out of a pick 3 last weekend on a DQ in the final leg. So I took a week off hoping that my luck would change.
I only bet the Magna 5 today, and of course I missed it due to Big Drama's DQ:bang:.
I:mad:swear, that I will not bet on horses again until I find some way of figuring disqualifications into my handicapping.

money

[CincyHorseplayer]

The Swale was a great race.....Big Drama was the best and after lugging out from a left handed whip....why on earth did his rider (geeze, can't:blush: remember who) whack him left handed again...dumb move:bang: His # woulda stayed up if not for that second time.

Wonder what everyone is saying now about This One's for Phil...seems he is living up to his big numbers.

Good point about the numbers Joanied.People can moan about the surface today and it WAS fast,but Phil and Quality Road were either 1 or 2 races off 113 and 116 BSF.This wasn't glue factory material running career races!!

[joanied]

Good point about the numbers Joanied.People can moan about the surface today and it WAS fast,but Phil and Quality Road were either 1 or 2 races off 113 and 116 BSF.This wasn't glue factory material running career races!!

Happy you posted this...and I noticed that no one has anything to say about Dutrow and Phil...I don't know much about Phil's races before Dutrow...but as soon as Dutrow got him and he got that huge #, some were talking trash about Dutrow again...hhhmmmmm. Obviously, Phil's a good horse that needed a better trainer:)

[Dahoss9698]

Happy you posted this...and I noticed that no one has anything to say about Dutrow and Phil...I don't know much about Phil's races before Dutrow...but as soon as Dutrow got him and he got that huge #, some were talking trash about Dutrow again...hhhmmmmm. Obviously, Phil's a good horse that needed a better trainer:)

What's there to say? Dutrow has turned an ordinary horse into a horse that has run out of this world #'s in 2 of his 3 starts with him. He must know secrets the other guys don't. :bang:

[cj]

What's there to say? Dutrow has turned an ordinary horse into a horse that has run out of this world #'s in 2 of his 3 starts with him. He must know secrets the other guys don't. :bang:

He fixed his teeth and some hind end problems. However, apparently the horse developed hemorrhoids and a nasty cavity after his first Dutrow appearance and before the FOY that somehow went undetected. A root canal and some Preparation H fixed him right up for yesterday. Just more solid horsemanship from the greatest horseman in the game.

[onefast99]

He fixed his teeth and some hind end problems. However, apparently the horse developed hemorrhoids and a nasty cavity after his first Dutrow appearance and before the FOY that somehow went undetected. A root canal and some Preparation H fixed him right up for yesterday. Just more solid horsemanship from the greatest horseman in the game.
Thats some good material cj, does Ian do teeth also?

[Tom]

Roids + liniment = 116

[onefast99]

Roids + liniment = 116
Hmmm someone else just posted the same thing here Tom, can you add maybe a few drops of eye cream to the mix?

[joanied]

What's there to say? Dutrow has turned an ordinary horse into a horse that has run out of this world #'s in 2 of his 3 starts with him. He must know secrets the other guys don't. :bang:

I suppose he knows as many 'secrets' as any good trainer...and maybe Phil wasn't an ordinary horse...maybe he had the talent, but it took a trainer like Dutrow to find it. I guess the bottom line for my post was that after This One's for Phil ran the first time for Dutrow and got that huge #, a lot of us were wondering out loud (again) if Dutrow was 'messin' with the jiuce'...which, at the time, kinda aggravated me....like, here we go again:faint:
OK?
:)

[joanied]

He fixed his teeth and some hind end problems. However, apparently the horse developed hemorrhoids and a nasty cavity after his first Dutrow appearance and before the FOY that somehow went undetected. A root canal and some Preparation H fixed him right up for yesterday. Just more solid horsemanship from the greatest horseman in the game.

I missed these few posts before I replied to Dahoss about my post...cj, I assume you are serious with this information...and on that assumption, I'll take a shot at explaining my original post again...that Phil was a horse with plenty of talent, and it just took a really good trainer to find it...and with your info, cj...it's pretty obvious that it took Dutrow's detective work to discover that the horse had several problems that needed attention...he fixed them up and now has a horse that's living up to his potential...
and see? we do have a little trashing going on...Tom posted 'roids+linement=116" :bang:

:) :) :)

[Relwob Owner]

He fixed his teeth and some hind end problems. However, apparently the horse developed hemorrhoids and a nasty cavity after his first Dutrow appearance and before the FOY that somehow went undetected. A root canal and some Preparation H fixed him right up for yesterday. Just more solid horsemanship from the greatest horseman in the game.


Thanks for making my day with that post......the Preparation H was my personal favorite:):)

[joanied]

Thanks for making my day with that post......the Preparation H was my personal favorite:):)

OhOh...I think I've been had:blush:

cj....:p ya got me:)

[classhandicapper]

Roids + liniment = 116

It's looking more and more like....

1. The 116 he was given for the Dash was inflated

2. The horse is a better sprinter than router and the taxing pace and distance of the FOY was too much.

3. The preliminary 108 he got for the Swale is a good representation of his current ability sprinting.

That was more or less my view after the Dash and I am more confident (though still not certain) now than before.

[Dahoss9698]

It's looking more and more like....

1. The 116 he was given for the Dash was inflated

2. The horse is a better sprinter than router and the taxing pace and distance of the FOY was too much.

3. The preliminary 108 he got for the Swale is a good representation of his current ability sprinting.

That was more or less my view after the Dash and I am more confident (though still not certain) now than before.

You think that one extra furlong of the FOY made THAT much of a difference? He very well may be a better sprinter, but he didn't really look like another furlong would have been a big deal for him yesterday.

[Robert Fischer]

You think that one extra furlong of the FOY made THAT much of a difference? He very well may be a better sprinter, but he didn't really look like another furlong would have been a big deal for him yesterday.

if you look at the FOY race and you consider that
A-the track was slower that day ,
and B-Subtract 1.4 seconds from the splits (he went 1:08flat for the 6f segment!)


It makes the ride Gomez gave TOFP look much better , and conversely Prado's ride in the FOY that much worse.

TOFP almost certainly gets beat by Quality Road regardless in the FOY, but his energy was wasted early, and exposed his weaknesses.

In hindsight , that little bit of a poor start TOFP had in the Sunshine Millions actually helped Prado to ride the horse properly in that race.

[Dahoss9698]

if you look at the FOY race and you consider that
A-the track was slower that day ,
and B-Subtract 1.4 seconds from the splits (he went 1:08flat for the 6f segment!)


It makes the ride Gomez gave TOFP look much better , and conversely Prado's ride in the FOY that much worse.

TOFP almost certainly gets beat by Quality Road regardless in the FOY, but his energy was wasted early, and exposed his weaknesses.

In hindsight , that little bit of a poor start TOFP had in the Sunshine Millions actually helped Prado to ride the horse properly in that race.

I agree. He appears to be a much better horse when he has a target instead of being the target.

[CincyHorseplayer]

if you look at the FOY race and you consider that
A-the track was slower that day ,
and B-Subtract 1.4 seconds from the splits (he went 1:08flat for the 6f segment!)


It makes the ride Gomez gave TOFP look much better , and conversely Prado's ride in the FOY that much worse.

TOFP almost certainly gets beat by Quality Road regardless in the FOY, but his energy was wasted early, and exposed his weaknesses.

In hindsight , that little bit of a poor start TOFP had in the Sunshine Millions actually helped Prado to ride the horse properly in that race.

Not only that Robert but a 1 sprint stretchout to a route distance off a huge lifetime figure effort off a layoff and is a 3yo.If that horse doesn't duplicate the 116 it's not hard to fathom why.

[the little guy]

I'm surprised nobody has brought up the possible dead rail that This One's for Phil raced on during the Fountain of Youth.

Regardless, let's say his 108 is more in line with his abilities, and the 116 is wrong ( I don't believe it is but will suspend that belief for this argument ). Are we now saying that a 25 to 30 point improvement is an expected result of some dental care and new shoes?

I gotta get that dentist's number.

[cj]

I agree the rail was probably not the place to be. I expect he is going to be as good or better at middle distances in the future.

[classhandicapper]

I'm surprised nobody has brought up the possible dead rail that This One's for Phil raced on during the Fountain of Youth.

Regardless, let's say his 108 is more in line with his abilities, and the 116 is wrong ( I don't believe it is but will suspend that belief for this argument ). Are we now saying that a 25 to 30 point improvement is an expected result of some dental care and new shoes?

I gotta get that dentist's number.

Andy,

I went through all my thinking on that race, the case for why the 116 might be inflated, and the impact of Dutrow on another thread.

Summed up, my view was/is that TOFP was/is a developing 3YO whose improvement was probably somewhat hidden by his races in routes and on turf because he's actually better sprinting at this point in career.

If you start with the assumption that the horse was better than he looked heading into the Dash and that the real figure for the Dash was in the 105-110 range, then the amount of the move up wasn't nearly as large. It was within the range of other Dutrow move ups and even some other rare spring 3YOs that occasionally make big moves like that.

That doesn't mean his performance wasn't enhanced either illegally or via some grey area legal means.

My point right from the beginning was that the huge reaction to this specific horse's performance was based on the figure move up. But if the figure was wrong and the horse misunderstood that says something about using speed figures alone to toss around accusations (even if I agree in general about Dutrow). I have to tell you I look at 3-4 sources of figures and I often see disagreements of 10 Beyer points. At other times I feel certain figures are off by that much.

I'm still not sure how fast the Dash was, but IMO the evidence so far supports my original interpretation of that result. I really don't think my original interpretation was far fetched to begin with. It was probably more logical than assuming that two January 3YOs were the best sprinters in the land (and a few other positive assumptions) just to make the track variant for that race fit in with the rest of the day.

I think the FOY also supported the case about his preference for sprinting. It was a tough pace, perhaps the inside was not the best spot (questionable) etc... but he tired horribly, his trainer opted for a sprint next time (something I said would be the right move), and he ran another big race.

[WinterTriangle]

maybe Phil wasn't an ordinary horse...maybe he had the talent, but it took a trainer like Dutrow to find it.

Or notice it.

Not comparing but Seabiscuit was trained by the greatest turf trainer in the land, Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons. He was unable to do anything with the horse. The unknown Tom Smith retrains him into a champion.

I read somewhere a supposed horse whisperer, said: "The horses tell you what they want to be."

I guess I'm just not so deeply cynical as to believe it can't be done, I volunteer at a wildlife center and the rehabber there is a falconer and literally talks to the animals; bears will take a cookie out of his mouth, hawks he rescued and released still fly down to visit, a bluejay he rehabbed flies out of the sky months later and lands on his shoulder. There's a lot more. I've seen it, so I know that some people just "get" animals or see things that aren't readily apparent to others.

[joanied]

Or notice it.

Not comparing but Seabiscuit was trained by the greatest turf trainer in the land, Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons. He was unable to do anything with the horse. The unknown Tom Smith retrains him into a champion.

I read somewhere a supposed horse whisperer, said: "The horses tell you what they want to be."

I guess I'm just not so deeply cynical as to believe it can't be done, I volunteer at a wildlife center and the rehabber there is a falconer and literally talks to the animals; bears will take a cookie out of his mouth, hawks he rescued and released still fly down to visit, a bluejay he rehabbed flies out of the sky months later and lands on his shoulder. There's a lot more. I've seen it, so I know that some people just "get" animals or see things that aren't readily apparent to others.

WinterT...I agree totally...there are special people that simply 'get' animals...especially dogs and horses...Ceasar Milan (the Dog Whisperer) is another good example. I beleive the wildlife stories in your post too...I've seen things like that.
It's one of the things that seperate trainers...the real true horsemen 'read' their animals and follow through on what they 'say'.

Good post:ThmbUp:

[cj's dad]

That's it - Dutrow, "the horse whisperer" !!!!!

[Stevie Belmont]

Quality Road ran him into the ground, thats what happened...

He could not keep up and packed it in...



Andy,

I went through all my thinking on that race, the case for why the 116 might be inflated, and the impact of Dutrow on another thread.

Summed up, my view was/is that TOFP was/is a developing 3YO whose improvement was probably somewhat hidden by his races in routes and on turf because he's actually better sprinting at this point in career.

If you start with the assumption that the horse was better than he looked heading into the Dash and that the real figure for the Dash was in the 105-110 range, then the amount of the move up wasn't nearly as large. It was within the range of other Dutrow move ups and even some other rare spring 3YOs that occasionally make big moves like that.

That doesn't mean his performance wasn't enhanced either illegally or via some grey area legal means.

My point right from the beginning was that the huge reaction to this specific horse's performance was based on the figure move up. But if the figure was wrong and the horse misunderstood that says something about using speed figures alone to toss around accusations (even if I agree in general about Dutrow). I have to tell you I look at 3-4 sources of figures and I often see disagreements of 10 Beyer points. At other times I feel certain figures are off by that much.

I'm still not sure how fast the Dash was, but IMO the evidence so far supports my original interpretation of that result. I really don't think my original interpretation was far fetched to begin with. It was probably more logical than assuming that two January 3YOs were the best sprinters in the land (and a few other positive assumptions) just to make the track variant for that race fit in with the rest of the day.

I think the FOY also supported the case about his preference for sprinting. It was a tough pace, perhaps the inside was not the best spot (questionable) etc... but he tired horribly, his trainer opted for a sprint next time (something I said would be the right move), and he ran another big race.

[joanied]

That's it - Dutrow, "the horse whisperer" !!!!!

Sarcasm noted:rolleyes:
I don't think anyone is referring to Dutrow as a 'horse whisperer'...just maybe an astute horseman......

I suppose I just opened a huge can of worms:bang:

[CincyHorseplayer]

Hold on a second.I haven't been keeping up with this extended debate but I thought Dutrow was referred to as the "Drugstore Cowboy"?!!!

[joanied]

Hold on a second.I haven't been keeping up with this extended debate but I thought Dutrow was referred to as the "Drugstore Cowboy"?!!!

:lol: