Latest Derby Prep Figures thru 4-13

[cj]

Count Fleet Aqu 1-4 8.3f mdy 84 86 Grey Comet
GG Derby GG 1-11 8.5f mdy 100 86 Standard Setter
Holy Bull GP 1-18 8.5f fst 96 99 Offlee Wild
Santa Ctlina SA 1-18 8.5f fst 102 102 Domestic Dispute
The Lecomte FG 1-25 8f fst 89 93 Saintly Look
The WEBN TP 2-1 8f gd 83 79 Champali
Sham S SA 2-7 9f fst 99 98 Man Among Men
Whirlaway Aqu 2-8 8.5f fst 98 93 Boston Park
Miracle Wood Lrl 2-8 8.5f fst 101 98 Gimmeawink
GG Mile GG 2-9 8f fst 89 92 Ministers Wild Cat
Fntn of Yth GP 2-15 8.5f fst 104 105 Trust N Luck
Risen Star FG 2-16 8.5f fst 101 109 Badge of Silver
Dptd Test Lrl 3-1 8.5f fst 81 89 Cherokee's Boy
Southwest OP 3-1 8f gd 93 104 Great Notion
San Rafael SA 3-1 8f fst 105 94 Rojo Toro
Battaglia TP 3-1 8.5f mdy 108 88 Champali
ElCmnoReal GG 3-8 8.5f fst 107 95 Ocean Terrace
SA Oaks SA 3-8 8.5f fst 87 101 Composure
LouisianaD FG 3-9 8.5f fst 109 105 Peace Rules
Fla Derby GP 3-15 9f fst 108 108 Empire Maker
The Gotham Aqu 3-16 8.3f fst 97 108 Alysweep
San Felipe SA 3-16 8.5f gd 107 101 Buddy Gil
Rebel S OP 3-22 8.5f fst 99 90 Crowned King
Rushaway TP 3-22 8.5f fst 88 82 Private Gold
Lane's End TP 3-22 9f fst 106 95 New York Hero
Prvte Trms Lrl 3-29 8.5f mdy 104 94 Sky Soldier
Ill Derby Haw 4-5 9f fst 118 110 Ten Most Wanted
SnAnta Dby SA 4-5 9f fst 118 104 Buddy Gil
Aventura GP 4-5 8.5f fst 96 102 Dynever
Wood Mem Aqu 4-12 9f mdy 111 111 Empire Maker
Calif Dy BM 4-12 9f sly 119 94 Mr. Technique
Blue Grss Kee 4-12 9f fst 118 104 Peace Rules
North Spur OP 4-12 8f fst 96 94 Mauk Four
Ark Derby OP 4-12 9f fst 123 110 Sir Cherokee


Very, very fast paced races this past weekend, could lead to a serious pace battle at CD!

CJ

[Speed Figure]

Cjmilkowski, I don't get your numbers at all. 1st you say the 111 EM got was to high. Than you come back a week later and post the same 111. Is that your figure or the beyer?

Than you say a 106 for Sir Cherokee? Than you post a 110! For his figure. I don't get it.

Almost of your numbers are the same as the beyers.


This are my figures for Cyber Secret 105/109/98

[cj]

First, the numbers I posted were the "Official" Beyers, not mine. My saying the 111 for EM was too high was just a visual observation, but the black and white of the charts told me a different story. This is one major reason I don't rush to make figures, lets me be more objective.

Secondly, I get the Simulcast Weekly on Fridays, and look at the entire card, including the Beyers assigned to ALL the races. I extract the variant assigned to the races and see if there are any oddities or weird looking races. I look at the PPs of the horses from those races and see if the assigned figures make sense. If so, I leave them as is.

I am not in the business of making speed figures. There are plenty good ones out there, I just choose Beyer style because I am comfortable with it and I know the exact speed charts and BL adjustment charts they are derived from. Occasionally, I will adjust a speed figure when I think the Beyer is out of whack. One example was the Arkansas Derby. There were 11 two turn routes on the card, certainly a good sample. EVERY race had a variant of 8 Fast, except the Arkansas Derby, which was 12 fast. I decided it made no sense to have a different variant for this race when all the races before and after it were the same, so I changed it to an 8 Fast as well, increasing the figure by 4 points.

Finally, the other thing I do that is different is the PACE figure. Everyone's speed figures will be in the same range, but I think I make very good pace figures, and it tells a huge part of the story as to how the final figure was achieved. That is the main part of my posts, the pace figure of the race so anyone can easily see the shape of the races.

Hope this makes sense.

CJ

[Tom]

These are very good numbers - Had I listened last year, I would have made a nice buck. CJ's method is sound and I certainly thak him for the work and the posts. PErhaps we could coin a new phrase for racing lexocon...CJ's!
"Hey, the duece has the best Beyer in dis race!"
"Yeah, but his CJ's stink!"

[Suff]

CJ...as peace Rule's effort looks better and Better as the other horses run ..I'm a tad interested in the horse that ran 2nd to him

Brancusi

wadda ya gettin on this Horse?

[cj]

Brancusi gets 116-100 from my figures...I don't put much stock in Kee numbers, has served me well in the past.

CJ

[rastajenk]

When it was announced that Beyers would start being included in the DRF, or maybe the Racing Times before that, I realized that my new life's calling would be to get my name attached to some kind of handicapping value. But somehow, saying that "The four-horse has the best Jenks" doesn't roll off the tongue as a positive thing.

I wonder about Brancusi, too. He seems like a real wild-card and has managed to escape much notice, it appears to me.

[blind squirrel]

3 REASONS TO TAKE BRANCUSI SERIOUSLY

OWNER:MICHAEL TABOR,SRIKE THE GOLD,THUNDER GULCH
TRAINER:BIANCONE WON THE FRENCH DERBY AND THE 'ARC
SIRE:DEPUTY COMMANDER WON SUPER DERBY AND TRAVERS

WOULDN'T THIS BE AN IRONIC YEAR FOR A FRENCHMAN TO
WIN "AMERICAS GREAT RACE"