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View Full Version : Vegas Odds on Win Willy for Derby?

winningponies
03-26-2009, 03:11 PM
We were very impressed with Win Willy's performance in the Rebel Stakes. We had him picked in our top tier (ahead of Old Fashioned). That performance was very similar to his sire Monarchos' win in the Derby.

Unfortunately, I think he is part of the field in the official Derby pool. Does anyone know what kind of odds are currently being offered at Vegas racebooks? I'm sure you can get an excellent price before the Arkansas Derby. If he wins that prep, then he will suddenly be considered one of the top contenders...
tholl
03-26-2009, 03:53 PM
60/1 at Wynns as of 3/23/09.
Bruddah
03-26-2009, 07:36 PM
60/1 at Wynns as of 3/23/09.

I consider that an underlay. He should be at least 99-1 to win the Ky Derby and 10-1 to win the Ark. Derby. The Ark. Derby odds are still fluctuating because the "shippers" are still being decided.

To this point the Ark. Derby is wide open and looking for a winner. The two local favorites are not Ky Derby material. (JMHHO) Just my Humble Handicapping Opinion. :cool:
Dahoss9698
03-26-2009, 07:44 PM
I consider that an underlay. He should be at least 99-1 to win the Ky Derby and 10-1 to win the Ark. Derby.

I couldn't agree more. I think even 10-1 might be a bit low.
winningponies
03-26-2009, 07:55 PM
I consider that an underlay. He should be at least 99-1 to win the Ky Derby and 10-1 to win the Ark. Derby. The Ark. Derby odds are still fluctuating because the "shippers" are still being decided.

To this point the Ark. Derby is wide open and looking for a winner. The two local favorites are not Ky Derby material. (JMHHO) Just my Humble Handicapping Opinion. :cool:

Yea I was also figuring that you should be able to get close to 100-1. I assume that by shopping around, you can find some smaller casinos that would be offering significantly better odds than the Wynn.
winningponies
04-01-2009, 03:14 AM
Interesting...They are adding Win Willy to Pool 3 of the futures. Looks like they set morning line at 20-1.
WinterTriangle
04-01-2009, 04:37 AM
but can he do it again? I guess I'm not getting Win Willy. :blush:

dosage is 5.00 and CD is 1.13 (yikes)
Stamina index is way too high (which is bad). Average stamina index for derby winner is 0.79 (big brown was 0.75). Win Willie is far away from that at 1.27

Don't forget Old Fashioned was carrying high weight in that race (122) while everyone else was carrying 115-117.

I could be wrong, hope you get a nice longshot there.
winningponies
04-02-2009, 02:46 PM
Wow currently 12-1 in future pool 3 now...