Who will come out of this weekend the Derby Favorite?

[pktruckdriver]

Big weekend this week, many questions will be answered.



Will Pioneer of the Nile be the Ky. Derby winner, as I predict, maybe...

There are a few out there looking just a s good or better right now, a few we have not seen yet , so what are your thoughts about who will come out of this weekend the fav for the derby.


Last year it was BB, who will it be this year, lets guess before hand, not after, okay.


You heard mine, who's yours???

Backup selection Quality Road




Patrick

[pktruckdriver]

Oh come guys, and Gals, do not be shy, let us hear your choice before the big races.


Please, no wussess here, go out on that limb and choose.



Patrick

[joanied]

Oh come guys, and Gals, do not be shy, let us hear your choice before the big races.


Please, no wussess here, go out on that limb and choose.



Patrick

There are posts about this weekend's races...the Wood had it's own thread...although, I suppose any Derby 'prep' race shoud be in the Triple Crown section:)
The Wood is a big step for Pioneerof The Nile, Patrick...it'll be interesting to see how he performs on dirt...if he runs really good and gets on the board (he doesn't have to win this...and after all, only one of them can win) then he'll be sitting pretty for the Derby, and Baffert will be thrilled...I sure look foward to seeing Baffert at the Derby...he's a ton of fun and ya gotta love 'em.

Someone over in the thread on the Wood has a link to the pre entires...it's 1/2 mile long:D ...I haven't decided on my picks yet, waiting to see the actual feild first...but IMO, the race is between the 'big boys'....Dunkirk (who may have a 'rabbit' to run at), Pioneer, Imperial Council, Freisan Fire, I Want Revenge, Quality Road.

I'll be back:jump: and I can't wait for Saturday!!

[Cat Thief]

Doubtful if anyone other than JoJo will get in from the Florida Derby (earnings will be the requirement besides winning) I won't wuss around, these are mine
Friesan Fire
Old Fashioned
There Goes JOJO
reminding me of:
Smarty Jones
Lion Heart (not quite make the distance)
Theres Goes JoJo (Muhalls horse, can't remember name)

[FlyinLate]

There are posts about this weekend's races...the Wood had it's own thread...although, I suppose any Derby 'prep' race shoud be in the Triple Crown section:)
The Wood is a big step for Pioneerof The Nile, Patrick...it'll be interesting to see how he performs on dirt...if he runs really good and gets on the board (he doesn't have to win this...and after all, only one of them can win) then he'll be sitting pretty for the Derby, and Baffert will be thrilled...I sure look foward to seeing Baffert at the Derby...he's a ton of fun and ya gotta love 'em.

Someone over in the thread on the Wood has a link to the pre entires...it's 1/2 mile long:D ...I haven't decided on my picks yet, waiting to see the actual feild first...but IMO, the race is between the 'big boys'....Dunkirk (who may have a 'rabbit' to run at), Pioneer, Imperial Council, Freisan Fire, I Want Revenge, Quality Road.

I'll be back:jump: and I can't wait for Saturday!!

Did I miss something? Since when is Pioneer of the Nile running in the Wood? I thought he was going to the SA Derby?

[fmolf]

i played a couple of fun wagers in future pool one on hello broadway.....vineyard haven and beethoven.....i hope at least one runs!....right now i would have to put my money on friesan fire to win the race ....not necessarily be the favorite...at least i hope not!

[W2G]

so what are your thoughts about who will come out of this weekend the fav for the derby.

I think the results of this weekend will do little to determine a Derby fav. In Florida you've got Dunkirk, Quality Road, and Theregoesjojo. Chances are that one of these three will be exposed as a fraudulent contender, while the others move on, although Dunkirk may have earnings issues. In Dubai you've got a very imposing Desert Party.

Next weekend is huge, and it's looking more and more like we're going to see 1-2 very strong contenders from FL, NY, CA, AR, LA and maybe KY. Throw in the Middle Eastern representative and the English automatic bid and it looks wide open, deep, and contentious at this point.

[pktruckdriver]

I think the results of this weekend will do little to determine a Derby fav. In Florida you've got Dunkirk, Quality Road, and Theregoesjojo. Chances are that one of these three will be exposed as a fraudulent contender, while the others move on, although Dunkirk may have earnings issues. In Dubai you've got a very imposing Desert Party.

Next weekend is huge, and it's looking more and more like we're going to see 1-2 very strong contenders from FL, NY, CA, AR, LA and maybe KY. Throw in the Middle Eastern representative and the English automatic bid and it looks wide open, deep, and contentious at this point.


Unfortunately if Desert Party stays healthy he willl be the Shiek's true Ky. Derby possible winner, from what I have seen , he does scare me a little bit, he has the heart of a champion, can rate well, go thru traffic and has that late kick that is so dangerous on these route races, he is a true derby contender, But I will stick with Pioneer of the Nile, Quality Road.

I will handicap the big races soon and post them here to see how I do, earlier this year I was on the money, then I was way off, so these races I still feel will give us the Ky. Favorite, but Desert Party must not be forgotten, he is good, maybe even great, he sure looks like watch this , 2 races

jan 22nd

http://www.drcnewswire.com/videos/2009_01_22/index.php

feb 13th
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yE89NYf52ZU&feature=related


these races show how good he is, enjoy



Patrick

[Relwob Owner]

Unfortunately if Desert Party stays healthy he willl be the Shiek's true Ky. Derby possible winner, from what I have seen , he does scare me a little bit, he has the heart of a champion, can rate well, go thru traffic and has that late kick that is so dangerous on these route races, he is a true derby contender, But I will stick with Pioneer of the Nile, Quality Road.

I will handicap the big races soon and post them here to see how I do, earlier this year I was on the money, then I was way off, so these races I still feel will give us the Ky. Favorite, but Desert Party must not be forgotten, he is good, maybe even great, he sure looks like watch this , 2 races

jan 22nd

http://www.drcnewswire.com/videos/2009_01_22/index.php

feb 13th
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yE89NYf52ZU&feature=related


these races show how good he is, enjoy



Patrick



I hate to say this because I hate being on favorites and I wouldnt consider myself to be much of a Mullins/Talamo/IEAH(if they buy part) fan, but I really think that I Want Revenge may be a monster and whatever price you get on him now may seem like a bargain come Derby time....


If it isnt him, I really like ThereGoesJoJo....gonna get the distance and the Derby is looking like it will have a ton of speed.


I dont see Quality Road getting in the top 10 in the Derby if he gets there at all.....just my 2 cents!

[pktruckdriver]

Please pick race 2 for Desert Party and Regal Ransom race

http://www.drcnewswire.com/videos/2009_01_22/index.php



Sorry for that not being clear


Patrick

[draynay]

This years Derby winner comes down to 3 horses.

Desert Party, Quality Road, and Imperial Council. One of these 3 will win the Derby. If it comes up wet at Churchill I will take Desert Party. I will watch the Wood and FD before choosing my fast dry track horse. But it will be one of the two remaining above.

[matthewsiv]

Quality road will not stay the Derby distance.

[joanied]

Did I miss something? Since when is Pioneer of the Nile running in the Wood? I thought he was going to the SA Derby?

:blush: yes!! At least, I beleive that's :confused: correct...Baffert should go to NY with him to try the dirt.

[pktruckdriver]

nothing changed for me, how bout you?????






patrick

[joanied]

Patrick,
Nothing changed too much for me either...Dunkirk ran huge and QR is awesome...can he get that extra 1/8th in the Derby...he galloped out strong today...and IMO, he'll be OK at the Derby distance...although, he's not my Derby horse...
next weekend will be huge...things may change after that:)

[Cat Thief]

Have to wait one more weekend .... Santa Anita and Wood. Quailty Road and possibly Friesan Fire will train up to the derby but they will be around the top of the list.

[Relwob Owner]

nothing changed for me, how bout you?????





patrick


I realized how incredibly wrong I was about Quality Road....wow. I fell into the trap of forgetting how much these horses can improve and just becuase he got caught once at 7F doesnt mean he cant go long. Also, I am amazed at the job Jerkens has done so far with him.

It seems to me that there will be a good amount of contenders in the Derby this year and the race might be decided the day of the post position draws....cant wait for the Wood

[DJofSD]

Here's a link (http://www.chef-de-race.com/video/race_videos.htm) to Dr. Roman's web page where there is a fairly large collection of videos from past KY Derbies along with other significant races. Enjoy!

P.S. QR -- oh yes he can get the distance.

[W2G]

My top two remain the same, and let's go three deep: Imperial Council, Desert Party, Dunkirk.

Still haven't bought into Quality Road and will play against with confidence in the Derby, although I may be one of the few who feel this way.

[big frank]

I have futures on Imperial Council at 35-1 and i believe IF he wins on saturday he will be 1st or 2nd choice on derby day.

[pktruckdriver]

I am still high on my horse Pioneer of the NIle, but the Pamplemousse, is also running in this race, if memory serves me , neither horse needs to win to go to the Derby,correct.

So that leaves me this question, who really needs to win to get in, could there be a great upset brewing here.

Could this be a great big workout race for these two great horses,i know conspiracy therory, but why not???

Dealing with traffic may be great lesson to be learned here, as the Derby has lost'a traffic, just a few thoughts, what are yours???


Patrick

[joanied]

I am still high on my horse Pioneer of the NIle, but the Pamplemousse, is also running in this race, if memory serves me , neither horse needs to win to go to the Derby,correct.

So that leaves me this question, who really needs to win to get in, could there be a great upset brewing here.

Could this be a great big workout race for these two great horses,i know conspiracy therory, but why not???

Dealing with traffic may be great lesson to be learned here, as the Derby has lost'a traffic, just a few thoughts, what are yours???


Patrick

I am scared of the Mousse...but unless he's kind enough to rate, the SA Derby may be a downfall for him....unless he's good enough to carry speed all the way...Z Day is the 'rabbit' in here...so we'll have to see what the 'grapefruit' does...meantime, your Pioneer (I also love him) will be stalking, and let's hope his run gets him there first.
The field has increased to 10 horses now...and that will be a good learning experience for any of them that are not on the lead...it's half the Derby field...you made a good point there, Patrick.

I'm still looking for the full feild entires...then make my picks...but I see Pioneer & the Mousse taking 1st & 2nd...that'd be outstanding:jump:

[pktruckdriver]

Yes that is correct, I will post my picks here out of the way to see how well I would have done,

You guys and Gals are welcome to post your picks here too, a little bragging rights go with it, nothing fancy, as we are civilized here.

Try to get them in before post time, no reboarding, please



Thanks and take care


Good Luck

Patrick

[joanied]

Patrick,

I post my picks, here there, everywhere:jump: ...and look foward to seeing your picks...great weekend ahead and I am looking at my TV scheduel trying to figure out how I'm gonna record them all...since they are on HRTV, TVG, NBC...aaarrgghhh:bang:
As in the song by Aerosmith..."I don't want to miss a thing":)

SA Derby-
1-Pioneerof The Nile (I know you got him too)
2-Pamplemousse (in a close one!)
3-Mr. Hot Stuff
4-Chocolate Candy

Wood-
1-Imperial Council
2-I Want Revenge
3-Just a Coincidence
4-West Side Bernie

Ill. Derby (I doubt very much the Derby winner comes outta this race)
1-Nowhere to Hide
2-Musket Man
3-Perfect Song

Carter Hdcap. ( nothin' to do with the Derby...butshould be a hell of a race)
1-Tale of Ekati
2-Fabulous Strike
3-Ah Day
4-Kodiak Kowboy

We also have the fillies/mares...

Apple Blossom
1-Acoma
2-Color me Up
3-Seventh Street

Fantasy
1-Rachel Alexandra (should be a 'sure thing' here)
2-Just Jenda (IF there's an 'upset'...she's the one. Larry Jones trains)
3-Cats

Ashland (I am so excited for this one)
1-Stardom Bound
2-Dream Empress
3-Third Dawn
4-Nan

Best of luck with all your bets, Patrick!
Safe trips for all, and may the best horses win.
:) :jump: :)

[pktruckdriver]

Let's see how I can do on short notice, I over slept here, and then drove to Evangeline Downs and was told No truck parking allowed.

Call them at 337-594-3000 and they will tell you also, as I was in the parking lot but every pole had a no truck or tractor trailer parking sign on it, oh well.



SA Derby
10
4
1, 2, 7, 9
LS 5


Wood Memorial
2
1
3,6,7
LS 3

Iliinois Derby
6
8
1,2,4
LS Lord Justice #3

Now where is Lord Justice actually running as he listed in 2 of these races

I wish I could do the ladies as they too have a few good races this wknd.

Apple Blossom
5
4
3,1


Ashland
Stardom Bound, But....
2,4,6 all can beat her, will be a great race
LS Nan #1



Wish I had more time and could'a watched them all, Hopefully you tell me which ones to re-watch later,

Good Luck

Patrick

[joanied]

Patrick,

Sorry about the no trucks thing...that kinda sucks. I assume from your post, you won't get to watch any of the races on TV? Do you know NBC carries the SA Derby? Since Pioneer is your Derby horse...maybe you can be someplace to at least watch the NBC telecast? the other races are on either TVG or HRTV...as far as I can see, HRTV carries the Wood & Apple Blossom. TVG carries the Ashland & Ill. Derby. On Sunday, Rachel Alexandar runs in the Fantasy...HRTV covers that...and the Apple Blossom.
We also have the Bayshore and the Carter Hcap....but don't see any listing as to what channel carries those...I suppose both TVG & HRTV would show them as part of the day's coverage...the Carter looks like a great one to watch...I hope Tale of Ekati takes it.

Hard to figure out your picks for today...I assume you are using the post position #'s....
good luck, Patrick:)

[pktruckdriver]

Yes sorry about that they were pp numbers, I got from the download from HDW, that I import into HSH.



Hopefully they are the post position numbers.

Pioneer may go down today, but KY Derby will be different.


Lord Justice is in the Wood , not Il Derby, but still a Longshot play


Now hopefully around 3-4 pm est I will see about the races and see what my computer pulls up, as I have ubet, tvg, twinspires, and one of those should have something to watch.



patrick

[Relwob Owner]

Patrick,

Sorry about the no trucks thing...that kinda sucks. I assume from your post, you won't get to watch any of the races on TV? Do you know NBC carries the SA Derby? Since Pioneer is your Derby horse...maybe you can be someplace to at least watch the NBC telecast? the other races are on either TVG or HRTV...as far as I can see, HRTV carries the Wood & Apple Blossom. TVG carries the Ashland & Ill. Derby. On Sunday, Rachel Alexandar runs in the Fantasy...HRTV covers that...and the Apple Blossom.
We also have the Bayshore and the Carter Hcap....but don't see any listing as to what channel carries those...I suppose both TVG & HRTV would show them as part of the day's coverage...the Carter looks like a great one to watch...I hope Tale of Ekati takes it.

Hard to figure out your picks for today...I assume you are using the post position #'s....






good luck, Patrick:)




Hey guys,

good luck to all today......I like Imperial Council to take the Wood.....I think the SA Derby is going to be a great race to get a price, as I think PM or POTN can each run out of it.....I am boxing the 5(Mr. Hot Stuff), 7(Take the Points) and 4(POTNile) and betting the 5 to win, in spite of my disdain for Mr. Nakatani....it will be fun!

[joanied]

Patrick & Relwob...

PT...you may be right about Pioneer...I would think that Baffert's instructions would be that he doesn't want Pioneer all out to win...have no clue what Cannani would say to his jock...but I would think Baffert wants to be careful not to over extend his colt...and like you said, PT...it's the Derby that counts....plus we're buckin' another one of those 'trends'...been a loooong time since a SA Derby winner took the Kentucky Derby.
PT...hope your puter pulls up the races for you...you might just try and see if the nbc.com web site offers live streams.

Rewob...best of luck in your bets today...Is Take the Points gonna run...I read that he would most likely be a scratch...I think Mr Hot Stuff (full bro to Col.John) will be a huge threat...Nakatani...aarrgghh!!
I have IC for the Wood also...hope the wind/rain quits by post time...think I'll go look up the weather in NY, just for the hell of it. I know the weather here sucks...almost always windy in WY, and today it's like a hurricane...and it's damned cold too.

[Moyers Pond]

Derby favorite is already set. Quality Road.

[tucker6]

Joanie,

I assume this horse fell pretty far on your list today. I loved him in February, but he has come up VERY short lately. With the Mousse coming up a tad lame, the KD seems to now be between Pioneer, IWR, and QR. All three have shown special qualities and determination to win. You can't train that.

[joanied]

Joanie,

I assume this horse fell pretty far on your list today. I loved him in February, but he has come up VERY short lately. With the Mousse coming up a tad lame, the KD seems to now be between Pioneer, IWR, and QR. All three have shown special qualities and determination to win. You can't train that.

Yep...IC sure didn't do his thing today...I though for sure he'd come running, but....noooooooooo!! You can bet Shug won't go to the Derby with him...maybe get him ready for the Belmont.

I agree, QR, IWR & Pioneer are the big horses now...but let's not forget Old Fashioned and Freisan Fire...those would be my top five:)

[tucker6]

Yep...IC sure didn't do his thing today...I though for sure he'd come running, but....noooooooooo!! You can bet Shug won't go to the Derby with him...maybe get him ready for the Belmont.

I agree, QR, IWR & Pioneer are the big horses now...but let's not forget Old Fashioned and Freisan Fire...those would be my top five:)
You think the Belmont? I'm thinking that, despite pedigree to the contrary, IC can't make it 1.5 miles.

[joanied]

You think the Belmont? I'm thinking that, despite pedigree to the contrary, IC can't make it 1.5 miles.

Oh, I don't know about that...and there have been quite a few Belmont winners that folks didn't think would go the distance...and Shug is very good at getting a horse ready for the Belmont...over in the General Discussions' section, there is a post that said IC flipped over backwards in the paddock...could be a reason for him flattening out in the Wood?
Or...Shug might put him away for a while and wait til Saratoga?

[MNslappy]

Who will come out of this weekend the Derby Favorite?

Here's where Pool 3 is at now following the preps:

I WANT REVENGE 9/2
QUALITY ROAD 5-1
FRIESAN FIRE 8-1
PIONEEROF THE NILE 10-1
OLD FASHIONED 12-1
DUNKIRK 12-1
WIN WILLY 16-1
ALL OTHER 3YO 17-1
THE PAMPLEMOUSSE 18-1
CHOCOLATE CANDY 21-1
MUSKET MAN 25-1
THEREGOESJOJO 50-1

[pktruckdriver]

Who will come out of this weekend the Derby Favorite?

Here's where Pool 3 is at now following the preps:

I WANT REVENGE 9/2
QUALITY ROAD 5-1
FRIESAN FIRE 8-1
PIONEEROF THE NILE 10-1
OLD FASHIONED 12-1
DUNKIRK 12-1
WIN WILLY 16-1
ALL OTHER 3YO 17-1
THE PAMPLEMOUSSE 18-1
CHOCOLATE CANDY 21-1
MUSKET MAN 25-1
THEREGOESJOJO 50-1


Nice list, but man are they dropping like flies, who will be around for the Derby??

I really feel that we could be back to having a practically unknown win again, as I see no BB this year, no clear cut fav's, a few yes top tier horses, but nothing to crow about, my horse Pioneer keeps winning. I still feel Desert Party has a real shot, and Quality Road seems to be out now, dang...


Still a few weeks to go, but aren't we under 30 days and counting, and believe it or not I do not have Ky. Derby Bankroll yet, kinda sad, as I was hoping this would be the year I hit the superfecta for a buck or 2 at least, and the way it is shaping up, that may not be possible with out a few all, all's on the bottom, and boy that gets expensive quickly.....


What would a ticket of this cost??????


1/2/3/4/5/6
1/2/3/4/5/6
ALL
ALL

OR
1/2/3/4
1/2/3/4/5/6
ALL
ALL


Any one know, as my thingy only goes up to 12 horses, not 20, sorry.


Thanks
Patrick

[speed]

Patrick you may need to work some overtime for that ticket

6x5x18x17= $9180 with 20 horse field

$3672 is the other ticket

[pktruckdriver]

Patrick you may need to work some overtime for that ticket

6x5x18x17= $9180 with 20 horse field

$3672 is the other ticket


:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:


Thanks

[WinterTriangle]

[QUOTE=pktruckdriver]believe it or not I do not have Ky. Derby Bankroll yet, [QUOTE]

I do, but it is competing with major tree work needing done.

Is it worth it to win the KY Derby $ if a tree falls on my house? :lol:

I guess it depends how much, huh?

[joanied]

Patrick....Hilarious:lol: when I saw 'speeds' reply about how much on those tickets...I'm sorry, it just really is funny:lol:

WT...if you bet and win big...guess that'd be enough to repair your roof after a tree falls on it:lol: ...priorites, girl...priorities;)

Thanks you three...I just got my much needed laugh for the day:ThmbUp: !!

[W2G]

Is it worth it to win the KY Derby $ if a tree falls on my house? :lol:


It may be well worth it. Review your homeowner's insurance policy.

[pktruckdriver]

OK The Races are all done , now who de we feel is the true Contender's.


I said all along Pioneer of the Nile, but he's a Cally horses, not dirt proven,yet


I still feel the 2 Dubai horese Desert Party and Regal Ransom are contenders



Underneath are the following

Fresian Fire
I Want Revenge
Dunkirk
Musket Man
Quality Road**** may be good enough to win , if healthy

Old Fashioned , what a shame, nice story too. Could'a used a story like that


Well let's here it please

patrick

[tucker6]

OK The Races are all done , now who de we feel is the true Contender's.


I said all along Pioneer of the Nile, but he's a Cally horses, not dirt proven,yet


I still feel the 2 Dubai horese Desert Party and Regal Ransom are contenders



Underneath are the following

Fresian Fire
I Want Revenge
Dunkirk
Musket Man
Quality Road**** may be good enough to win , if healthy

Old Fashioned , what a shame, nice story too. Could'a used a story like that


Well let's here it please

patrick
IWR
POTN
Dunkirk

I like Quality Road, but the quarter crack, while it won't affect his performance in the race per se, may affect his practice time.

[toussaud]

a healthy Quality Road to me is 4-5 lengths the best.