formula_2002
03-22-2009, 12:01 PM
TODAYS PICKS
ENJOY (I HOPE :) )
03-22-2009
LONG TERM CAPITAL PLAYS
http://longtermcapitalwinner.homestead.com/
DATA SOURCES;
BRIS (BRIS.COM)
JCAPPER (JCAPPER.COM)
DATA FORMULATION:
http://longtermcapitalwinner.homestead.com/
THESE SELECTIONS ARE ALSO POSTED ON WWW.PACEADVANTAGE.COM, "SELETCIONS" FORUM
UNDER " LONG TERM CAPITAL PLAYS"
BET1 WPS,E BET REQUIRES ODDS >1.AND.<3*
BET2 WPS BET REQUIRES ODDS<3
NOTE: WHEN BET1 AND BET2 ARE BOTH PLAYS, DOUBLE UP THE WPS BET AND DOUBLE UP THE EXACTA BET.
BET3 WP REQUIRES ODDS>=2
NOTE: SINCE THE AVERAGE RUNNING ODDS FOR A BET3 IS 6-1, THE BET SIZE SHOULD BE A PROPORTIONAL ODDS BET
THIS WILL HELP LIMIT THE OVERALL ROI Volatility.
EXAMPLE: GIVEN THAT A FLAT BET UNIT IS 1, A PROPORTION ODDS BET, ON SAY A 5-1 HORSE WOULD BE 1/(5+1)=.16 UNITS
Selected horse is on top of the exacta, The three under horses should be the shortest odds of the top ranked 4 horses.
POSSIBLE RESULTS
LONG TERM RESULTS ARE BREAK-EVEN IN THE WPS POOLS AND PERHAPS A VERY SLIGHT EGDE IN THE EXACTA POOL.
IF YOU CAN GET ATLEAST A 5% REBATE, LONG TERM, IT COULD BE "WINNER
I SUSPECT, OVER TIME, , GIVEN THE 5% REBATES, THE SUM OF THESE PLAYS WILL BE PROFITABLE.
I HAVE FOUND THAT A PROPORTIONAL ODDS BET LESSENS THE ROI DEVIATION.
WHEN POSSIBLE, I WILL UPDATE SELECTION WITH SCRATCHES.
SELECTION ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED WHEN THE RUNNING FIELD SIZE IF DIFFERENT THAN "FIELD SIZE" SHOWN BELOW.
EACH ENTRY HORSE IS COUNTED AS ONE.
GOOD LUCK
NOTE: WHEN BET1 AND BET2 ARE BOTH PLAYS, DOUBLE UP THE WPS BET AND DOUBLE UP THE EXACTA BET.
TK R PGN0 NAME BET1 BET2 BET3 FIELD SIZ ML POST BET SIZE
GP 1 7 SPLASH OF CO --- -- WP 14 3.00 1:15 10.00
AQU 2 6 SOLO PIANO WPS,E -- -- 7 0.40 1:29 6.00
CT 4 6 NAUGHTY KITT --- -- WP 7 1.60 2:12 6.00
CT 5 13 LOON LOST --- -- WP 13 4.00 2:36 10.00
CT 6 8 BILLS GLORY WPS,E -- -- 14 1.80 3:00 9.00
CT 7 5 RED GHOST --- WPS -- 10 3.00 3:24 15.00
FG 5 1 HILLSWICK --- -- WP 14 2.50 3:36 8.00
HAW 4 4 BOLD DAYS WPS,E WPS -- 6 4.00 3:51 17.00
GP 8 1 WOODLAND WPS,E -- -- 10 1.60 4:43 13.00
GP 9 4 CRITICISM --- -- WP 8 1.20 5:14 11.00
GP 10 4 SMOKNDRINKNG --- -- WP 14 12.00 5:45 8.00
MNR 1 2 NICE IRISH B WPS,E WPS -- 10 1.00 7:00 16.00
MNR 4 5 CHANTILLY SL --- -- WP 10 1.60 8:15 13.00
*CHANGED 03-17-2009
ENJOY (I HOPE :) )
03-22-2009
LONG TERM CAPITAL PLAYS
http://longtermcapitalwinner.homestead.com/
DATA SOURCES;
BRIS (BRIS.COM)
JCAPPER (JCAPPER.COM)
DATA FORMULATION:
http://longtermcapitalwinner.homestead.com/
THESE SELECTIONS ARE ALSO POSTED ON WWW.PACEADVANTAGE.COM, "SELETCIONS" FORUM
UNDER " LONG TERM CAPITAL PLAYS"
BET1 WPS,E BET REQUIRES ODDS >1.AND.<3*
BET2 WPS BET REQUIRES ODDS<3
NOTE: WHEN BET1 AND BET2 ARE BOTH PLAYS, DOUBLE UP THE WPS BET AND DOUBLE UP THE EXACTA BET.
BET3 WP REQUIRES ODDS>=2
NOTE: SINCE THE AVERAGE RUNNING ODDS FOR A BET3 IS 6-1, THE BET SIZE SHOULD BE A PROPORTIONAL ODDS BET
THIS WILL HELP LIMIT THE OVERALL ROI Volatility.
EXAMPLE: GIVEN THAT A FLAT BET UNIT IS 1, A PROPORTION ODDS BET, ON SAY A 5-1 HORSE WOULD BE 1/(5+1)=.16 UNITS
Selected horse is on top of the exacta, The three under horses should be the shortest odds of the top ranked 4 horses.
POSSIBLE RESULTS
LONG TERM RESULTS ARE BREAK-EVEN IN THE WPS POOLS AND PERHAPS A VERY SLIGHT EGDE IN THE EXACTA POOL.
IF YOU CAN GET ATLEAST A 5% REBATE, LONG TERM, IT COULD BE "WINNER
I SUSPECT, OVER TIME, , GIVEN THE 5% REBATES, THE SUM OF THESE PLAYS WILL BE PROFITABLE.
I HAVE FOUND THAT A PROPORTIONAL ODDS BET LESSENS THE ROI DEVIATION.
WHEN POSSIBLE, I WILL UPDATE SELECTION WITH SCRATCHES.
SELECTION ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED WHEN THE RUNNING FIELD SIZE IF DIFFERENT THAN "FIELD SIZE" SHOWN BELOW.
EACH ENTRY HORSE IS COUNTED AS ONE.
GOOD LUCK
NOTE: WHEN BET1 AND BET2 ARE BOTH PLAYS, DOUBLE UP THE WPS BET AND DOUBLE UP THE EXACTA BET.
TK R PGN0 NAME BET1 BET2 BET3 FIELD SIZ ML POST BET SIZE
GP 1 7 SPLASH OF CO --- -- WP 14 3.00 1:15 10.00
AQU 2 6 SOLO PIANO WPS,E -- -- 7 0.40 1:29 6.00
CT 4 6 NAUGHTY KITT --- -- WP 7 1.60 2:12 6.00
CT 5 13 LOON LOST --- -- WP 13 4.00 2:36 10.00
CT 6 8 BILLS GLORY WPS,E -- -- 14 1.80 3:00 9.00
CT 7 5 RED GHOST --- WPS -- 10 3.00 3:24 15.00
FG 5 1 HILLSWICK --- -- WP 14 2.50 3:36 8.00
HAW 4 4 BOLD DAYS WPS,E WPS -- 6 4.00 3:51 17.00
GP 8 1 WOODLAND WPS,E -- -- 10 1.60 4:43 13.00
GP 9 4 CRITICISM --- -- WP 8 1.20 5:14 11.00
GP 10 4 SMOKNDRINKNG --- -- WP 14 12.00 5:45 8.00
MNR 1 2 NICE IRISH B WPS,E WPS -- 10 1.00 7:00 16.00
MNR 4 5 CHANTILLY SL --- -- WP 10 1.60 8:15 13.00
*CHANGED 03-17-2009