The Process of Incorporating Pace Figs Into Handicapping

[coach_lowe]

Tonight I downloaded some racecards that incorporate Moss's pace figs and right now my head is spinning.

I usually start by making my own running style designations for each horse. From that point, I usually use speed figures to make a contender list. Once my contenders are identified I try to conceptualize what the pace of the race will probably look like and how each contender will or will not benefit and then make my betting decisions based on each horse's perceived value. In other words, all the basic stuff that we all do. But what about all the numbers? I'm having a hard time with having a concrete method of applying all of the numbers to my decision making process. Please understand, I'm not talking about viewing each race in the same way. I just need a more specific plan of attack of actually knowing how to extrapolate information from the numbers. I know that if I learned how to make my own figures that that would help, but I really don't have the time to do that right now.

I'm a step by step guy so I'm wondering what steps people use when handicapping a race using pace figs. I could ask much more, but it's very late and I'm getting a headache. Any response will be much appreciated.

Thanks,

Scott

[Robert Fischer]

They can support your visual opinion of a race.

For example Old Fashioned and Silver City are out on the lead in The Rebel, and they tire badly. I can see that, and I can see the fractions. Watching the race, I get the opinion that they went too fast early. How fast? The question was it a suicidal fast pace that should have made them quit? So then you check the day's chart, and the pace figures to confirm that. You want the pace figures to agree with your visual opinion, and if not - you have to go back and do it over.
So i look up Old Fashioned's pace for the Rebel, and his Bris E and E2 are 108,116 which are very fast and roughly 10 pts in each category faster than he has ever gone in a race. So now my visual opinion has been confirmed.

Or we look at I Want Revenge's Gotham. They appeared to go slow-moderate in the pace. The pace looked slow enough visually, that inspite of dueling outside his rival, I Want Revenge should have had gas in the tank for the final 5/16ths...
Then I look at the Bris pace figs for the Gotham and IWR gets 87E and 101E2.
Those seem moderate-fast and faster than my visual impression. So now i have to watch the race once again, go back and look at the day's charts again, check friday's and sunday's card...
I look around on I want Revenge's other races and he has a 6f Maiden where he is 8.25 lengths off a 21 first quarter and he gets a 76E and examples like that are why a skilled visual opinion trumps a number.


another way to incorporate pace figs is in looking at who figures to be on the lead , especially when handicapping the chances of a speed horse. A pace fig can be used to confirm opinions about which horse is probably the quickest.

[proximity]

for starters:

short sprints: just compare apples to apples. does one horse have a higher last out figure or consistently higher figures than the rest of the field? if so how was the figure (or figures) earned? does the horse tend to burst out to the lead by open lengths and then quit? (bad) or has he been dueling or trying to keep up with faster horses and is simply meeting a field with less early speed today? (good) also, has the horse been losing a lot of ground in the stretch but is cutting back in distance today with competitive moss figures? (probably good)

routes: i would look more at the moss race shapes and the horse's running lines to determine how his past figures were earned. is the horse potentially better or worse than it's beyers would indicate? if the race shape was slow and the horse tried to close from far back it could be better than it's figure indicates. if it dueled on the front or close to a fast race shape it almost definitely ran better than the beyer would indicate.....

long sprints: more of a grey area.

[cj]

The best application I have for them is using them to look for a potential "one race" track bias. Did the race favor speed, closers, neither? Was there a slow place, but the speeds all stunk anyway so closers still won? They just give you a better idea of how well a horse has performed in the past in conjunction with a speed figure.

They can also help with seeing how young horses develop. Two horses run 70s at 6f first out, one with a 90 pace, the other with a 65. Which one do you want at 7f or 1m next out? How about 5f?

[fmolf]

i take the figs rom each segment an make an average pace figure by adding then dividing by the number of segments...to come up with an average pace figure...a la sartin/brohamer

[fmolf]

if you look at the pace segments usually they will be about proportional to each other early is high ....late is lower....or vice a versa ....an average usually shows which horse has the most gas at the end...trial an error will tell which method ot methods are right for your style of handicapping