LTCP-MARCH RECAP AND ANALYSIS

[formula_2002]

STRIPPING AWAY ALL THE DIFFERENT BETTING CRITERIA AND JUST LOOKING AT THE POSTED PICKS AND HOW THEY FARED BY ODDS,
[THERE WERE 122 PICKS WITH ODDS< 7/2. THEY RETURNED A WP STRUCTURED BET ROI OF 1.06 EACH
WHILE THE 33 POSTED PICKS THAT WNET OFF AT >=7/2 SHOW TERRIBEL WP ROI’S, A SEPARATE STUDY OF 353 HORSES INDICATED VERY POSITIVE ROI’S

A MAJOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TEST STUDY OF OVER 2000 HORSE PLAYS AND THE POSTED PICKS IS THE POSTED PICKS, FOR THE MOST PART HAVE NOT BEEN ADJUSTED FOR SCRATCHES.

SEE ATTACHED FOR ODDS BREAKDOWN

[markum77]

HOW DID YOU DO FLAT BET.. I WANT TO UNDERSTAND MORE ON STRUCTURED WAGERS, THANKS.. HOW COULD I USE THAT ON MY CHALKY BETS.

[Dave Schwartz]

What is a "structured" wager?

(I am wondering if it is what is commonly known as the unit payoff method.)

[formula_2002]

HOW DID YOU DO FLAT BET.. I WANT TO UNDERSTAND MORE ON STRUCTURED WAGERS, THANKS.. HOW COULD I USE THAT ON MY CHALKY BETS.
FLAT BET: THERE WERE 122 PLAYS <7/2 RETURNING A WIN MUTUAL OF $251.50.. 251.50/(122X2)= 1.03 ROI.

THE BET SIZE SUMS TO "WAGERED" IN THE REPORT.
BET SIZE IS DETERMINED BY SOME CALCULATIONS I DO PRIOR TO RACE TIME. IT'S INTENDED TO MIRROR A PROPORTIONAL ODDS BET (1/(ODDS+1).

I CAN FEED YOU THE VALUES AS YOU POST YOUR SELECTIONS AND WE CAN FIND OUT.

I RAN THE NUMBERS THROUGH ONE OF CJ DADS POST RECENTLY.
IT SEEM TO IMPROVE THE ONE DAY RESULTS.

[formula_2002]

What is a "structured" wager?

(I am wondering if it is what is commonly known as the unit payoff method.)
right now its just a number, that is independent of the public odds.

it seems to have some betting value, but i can't be sure until i run about 1,000,000 more races :)