Empire Maker

[jotb]

To all:

Empire Maker received a 111 Beyer figure in the Wood Memorial. Once again, I see Andy had problems measuring the speed of the racing strip at Aqueduct. That number is inflated to the max. I'm sure come Derby Day Empire with the big 111 fig will be even money or less. I'll be seeking others come Derby Day!

Regards,
Joe

[so.cal.fan]

Joe,
interesting post, indeed.
Here at Santa Anita, we sort of all think this horse is a sure winner of the KY DERBY.
Do you really think we can bet against him?
I respect your opinion, why don't you like him?
:confused:

[Observer]

Regardless of my opinion of Empire Maker, I find it extremely hard to believe that this was the best race he has ever run. Visually, he was so much more impressive in sweeping to victory in the Florida Derby. In addition, many felt going in to the Wood Memorial the horse would be coming in a little short, and the connections made it no secret they didn't want to drain the tank now with the Derby three weeks away .. so that to me strengthens my belief that the Wood Memorial was not as good as his Florida Derby.

I don't put much stock in Beyer numbers, and this is one example why.

[Tom]

EM earned a 111 Beyer, and he also got 111 ffrom BRIS.
Is Andy moonlighting?:eek:

This brings up a questiton - has anyone ever one or seen a study of BRIS-TSN-Beyer numbers for winners? Is there any correlation amoung the three sets of figs?
I think I will do this just for kicks and giggles.

[karlskorner]

The article I posted "all in the numbers", covers Frankel's thoughts.

[jotb]

Hello So CAL:

Well for starters the Wood race was not as strong as others may think. Like I said earlier that Beyer of 111 is definately inflated. Secondly, Empire Maker acts like a "goof ball" on the racetrack. He acted up just prior to the starting gate which in turn cause him to lather up. Come Derby Day a large crowd will be on hand and Empire Maker skittish ways will continue. Granted Empire runs with blinkers but I would certainly "close him up" for Derby Day. I think he certainly has the talent but maturity is not on his side at the moment. I thought Mr. Bailey's ride on Empire in the Wood will only come back to haunt him come Derby Day. I guess Frankel and Bailey's had a game plan for Empire to get something out of the race but not anymore than that. Trying to reserve a horse that is still learning the game and has a tendency to play around some is only teaching this youngster bad habits. When that NY bred came back along the inside, Bailey reacted quickly but not Empire Maker. Bailey moved his stick into Empire's view and Empire immediately scampered clear. What's going to happen come Derby Day when the opposition gets in front of Empire in deep stretch? I'm sure Bailey will be thinking differently this time around and will react before another foe comes alongside. Let's face it, Empire Maker beat a WEAK Wood field and now will face several other's that have the capability to win the Derby. Take the above negatives and throw in the Churchill surface factor and you have a vulnerable Derby favorite on the horizon.

Best regards,
Joe

[so.cal.fan]

Thanks for the info, Joe.
What do you think of Atswhatimtalkinabout?
Ron's owner, Hughes sold 10% of him to Steve Spielberg.
He is a big good looking colt, who was very studdish and wild starting his racing career. He seems to be maturing fast.
I sure wish he would develop more speed, seems to have just one run.

[Marc At DRF]

"Like I said earlier that Beyer of 111 is definately inflated."

Glad to see you're so sure of yourself. This performance, 3 wide on both turns while 8 lengths clear of third, also managed to earn figures on both the Ragozin and Thorograph Sheets that are extremely fast.

[PurplePower]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
Thanks for the info, Joe.
What do you think of Atswhatimtalkinabout?
Ron's owner, Hughes sold 10% of him to Steve Spielberg.
He is a big good looking colt, who was very studdish and wild starting his racing career. He seems to be maturing fast.
I sure wish he would develop more speed, seems to have just one run. SCF,
I think AWITA is worth a look, hopefully he will be 10-1 or more - but with the Steve Spielberg connection that may not happen. My question is his front feet. In the nice picture on the front of the Saturday April 5th DRF in which ATWITA was in a "feel good" half-rear, I noticed that he had egg-bar shoes on both front feet. I have not seen a word about him wearing bar shoes and wondered if that was a recent picture or one from earlier in year. Have you heard anything out there about him wearing bar shoes?

[Marc At DRF]

There have been several stories about this colt wearing bar shoes in training because of earlier heat in his feet. He doesn't run in them on race day.

That said, a cursory glance at any replay shows that this colt takes the second turn in the 6 path for no good reason in his last couple starts, indicative of some sort of physical issue. And horses who blow the second turn at CD end up with a lot to do, as they are usually circling into the 10 path in such a big field....

[so.cal.fan]

That is NEWS to us, PP.
I just called one of the top stable's assistant trainers and read her your post.........news to her, but we are going to ask some questions.
If this is true.....it SURE is NOT good.
I'll get back to you as soon as I find out.

[Marc At DRF]

I'm confuded-- a "top assistant" didn't know about the bar shoes, even though it had been reported by DRF and Bloodhorse?

Or did the "top assistant" not know a share of the horse had been sold to Spielberg?

[so.cal.fan]

Sorry about that:
The assistant is NOT with the ELLIS barn.
Just a friend and neighbor of mine, who is with another top barn at Santa Anita.

[jotb]

Glad to see you're so sure of yourself. This performance, 3 wide on both turns while 8 lengths clear of third, also managed to earn figures on both the Ragozin and Thorograph Sheets that are extremely fast. [/B][/QUOTE]

Eight lengths clear of a horse that ran in a maiden claiming race back in early winter. Place horse is a nice NY Bred and that's about it. So Beyer, Ragozin, and Thorograph make the race extremely fast. I just hope they noticed the difference in times between the first 7 races on the card and the last few. That track played on the slow side most of the day until the maintaince crew went into their bag of tricks for the latter races. I'm confident that all those speed makers screwed up this time. Only time will tell.

Regards,
Joe

[Marc At DRF]

Love your confidence. It's one of the most typical comments from amateur figure makers when talking about professionals. "I'm just sure they have it wrong."

All three organizations had people on track that day who were well aware of the maintenance work, and maybe, just maybe, have heard of the concept of a track changing speed.

But they all got it wrong. Uh-huh.

[so.cal.fan]

Like the man said, Marc at DRF: "only time will tell"
The man you are posting to, is hardly an" amateur".
Yeah, he could be wrong....anyone can..including the DRF speed figures and/or the Bris figures.

[jotb]

Hello Marc:


You are right and I'm wrong.

Take care,
Joe

[jotb]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
Like the man said, Marc at DRF: "only time will tell"
The man you are posting to, is hardly an" amateur".
Yeah, he could be wrong....anyone can..including the DRF speed figures and/or the Bris figures.

SoCal,

Let it go. It's not worth it. I must have pushed his buttons. I guess what he forgot about this game, I still need to learn.

Best regards,
Joe

[Observer]

Originally posted by jotb
...Secondly, Empire Maker acts like a "goof ball" on the racetrack. He acted up just prior to the starting gate which in turn cause him to lather up. Come Derby Day a large crowd will be on hand and Empire Maker skittish ways will continue. ...

Let me just start off by saying I think you make some very valid points. However, just wanted to point out that Fusaichi Pegasus was also a goofball on the track, and people said the same about him going before the big crowd at the Derby, and he rolled that day. Point Given was also a goofball. The difference between Pegasus and Point Given when compared to Empire Maker is that when it came time to running, those two seemed more professional than Empire Maker has seemed to this point. Of course, Point Given ran the worst race of his career in the Derby, but I don't think the crowd had anything to do with that.

From a betting aspect, no way Empire Maker is going to be worth risking money on .. there is going to be tremendous value out there on everyone else. However, I don't think it would be the worst thing to have a few bucks on him in case he did win, then you have bragging rights that you bet and won the Derby!

;)

[so.cal.fan]

Purple Power:
You have sharp eyes!
In regards to AWITA.......he and most of Ron Ellis horses wear these shoes to TRAIN in to PREVENT bruises.
After reading your post, I got up and went down to Santa Anita and found out.
AWITA does NOT have bad feet. I was glad to hear that!
He does tend to get nervous and lose weight........something any of you who are watching close....should monitor, if you are interested in this horse.
I would like to see Ron win this race....but he will sure have some competition.

[PurplePower]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
.....something any of you who are watching close....should monitor, if you are interested in this horse.
I would like to see Ron win this race....but he will sure have some competition. That is one of main reasons I like to go visit my son at Churchill Downs the week before the Derby. I'll get there on Friday before Derby Trial day and get to see most of the runners' final breeze. I post a daily report on my page on the SHRP website for any that are interested. Thanks for getting that shoe info on Awita. Now if somebody can just sew some testicles on Buddy Gil ... we might be able to find an Empire "Breaker".

[so.cal.fan]

My knock on Buddy G. is that he bleeds thru lasix..........
AWITA also has had a skin rash.......yet another red flag.
Most men I know, like Empire Maker....however....like I said, I have to respect Joe's opinion.......
Please let us know what you find out in Ky. PP.

[Marc At DRF]

"Hello Marc:


You are right and I'm wrong.

Take care,
Joe"

Actually, Joe, all I was looking for was a modicum of respect for the full-time operations of some pretty sharp guys who are well aware of all of the variables you guys are speaking of.

To make the comment, "I think this number might be a little fast, but it was an interesting day with a lot of variables to consider, and I'm sure all professional figuremakers worth their weight in salt examined the day quite closely before coming up with what they come up with,"

is a lot different than "I'm confident they were wrong."

My maincomplaint is with the assumption that all of the variables that you are considering are not being considered by the Beyer team, as well as the other teams I mentioned, who I have no professional affiliation with. These guys aren't a bunch of simpletons, but the confidence with which you assail this figure seems to assume they are.

Your 8-lengths-clear-of-a-former-Maiden-Claimer logic, though, that doesn't strike me as all that professional. That former maiden claimer is probably the claim of the year in New York, and note who the maiden claimer passed to beat-- the G2 winner of that race at Turfway...

Also, let's note the margin of victory of over Indy Dancer in both the Wood (roughly 15 lengths) and the Fla Derby (less than 10)...

Still "confident" they got it wrong? Or could this be one where there are more ways to look at it that might make sense?

[Tom]

Being confident a number is wrong is just part of handicapping. I have seen more than enough wacky beyer numbers to have opinions that "I know he was wrong" that paid off at the window for me. In fact, many of my best wagers have come from what I consider to be wrong beyers. I also think Dave Litfin is wrong on a lot of his picks. And many other "professionals" as well. This game is all about betting when you think you are right and someone else is wrong. Beyer might be right 99% of the time. If I have an edge in the other 1% of the races, that is worth some betting money to me. Being a proffesional doesn't always mean you are right, just that you are paid. A professional designer did the Ford Edsel.
:eek:

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Tom@HTR
A professional designer did the Ford Edsel. :eek:

Not to mention the 1971 Motor Trend Car of the Year !

The Chevy Vega! :D