long term capital plays 03-16-2009

[formula_2002]

SEE ATTACHED FOR PLAYS AND BET SIZE

[formula_2002]

Philadelphia - Race 3
# Win Place Show
8 $8.20 $3.80 $2.80
9 . $3.40 ] $2.60

here is an observation that I will include in my summary sheet.
the win and place pools have about the same roi. the show pool is a bit less.
if you are not betting enough units to affect the pool prices and you are not getting any rebates, place bets are the way to bet.

[formula_2002]

Beulah Park - Race 2
# Win Place Show
3 $9.40 $3.80 $2.40
1 . $3.60 $2.80

10 unit wp play

[formula_2002]

lad r4 ran out
6 unit wp bet

[formula_2002]

tup r4 ran out

7 unit wp play

[formula_2002]

Portland Meadows - Race 7
# Win Place Show
5 $3.00 $2.40 $2.10

13 unit wps play

[formula_2002]

mnr r3 out.

4 unit wps play

[markum77]

Thats a tough pick there.. at pm 11... i cant see him topping the lead. GOOD LUCK.

[formula_2002]

....however, the place flat bet roi is .78 roi
but the structured place bet roi is 1.025...

[formula_2002]

Thats a tough pick there.. at pm 11... i cant see him topping the lead. GOOD LUCK.
they made the beast 2.3-1 in the daily double pool.
im looking for min of 2-1 so i'll go with 11 units to place.

[markum77]

I like the play of speed in mdn races. Its good in situations. I guess he could use his class adv to come off the pace..

[formula_2002]

he's the fav. in the pic 3d pool and 2nd choice in the dd.
i may not get my min 2-1..

[markum77]

He looked like a runner on the track I bet 20 units to place for ya.

[markum77]

i canceled it when he went 3-2 the last min..then he ended up 2-1

[formula_2002]

i had him at 2-1 then he went down and came back.
remember he was 2.3-1 in the dd. it was reasonable that he would go off at 2-1..some times yer get lucky.

Portland Meadows - Race 11
# Win Place Show
4 $6.40 $2.60

11 unit wp play.

days recap:
flat bet win roi=.67
flat bet place roi =.86

structure win bet rol=.88
structured place bet roi=1.07

[formula_2002]

He looked like a runner on the track I bet 20 units to place for ya.
you cut into my take.. :)

[markum77]

I hate last second odds bets...i always go the wrong way..